DFS Alerts

Cheap Win Equity

I’m not an expert at projecting ownership but it sure seems like Odorizzi will be the very chalky SP2 option on DraftKings. Odorizzi draws one of the best matchups possible against a Royals offense that owns the the fourth worst wRC+ (82) in the league versus RHP. The inefficient Odorizzi can be maddening to roster at times but has shown good strikeout upside this season (24 K%, 11.2 SwStr%) and has strong win equity with the Twins being one of the heaviest favorites of Friday’s slate.

Low Ownership + Low Price + Good Context

YONNY! Perhaps overlooked has been the fact that the Rays have been doing a much better job of announcing who their long reliever will be. Chirinos is that guy on Friday night and he gets a posh matchup against the White Sox (25.2 K%, 96 wRC+) at the pitcher friendly Trop. Chirinos is merely an average talent (4.16 SIERA, 20.8 K%) but is only $5,100 on DraftKings and should see ~5% ownership. I like Chirinos quite a bit simply due to expected low ownership + low price + good context.

Power Surge

Bour is more of a GPP option in the context of Friday’s slate but has tremendous power upside in this matchup against Velasquez. The Marlins get a favorable park shift with this game being played in Philadelphia and Bour’s .230 ISO should play up at the hitter friendly Citizen’s Bank Park that has played well above average to power since 2014. VV has struggled with the long ball throughout his career (1.33 HR/9, 13.6% HR/FB) and will have a tough time keeping Bour’s power in check.

Bad Starter, Terrible Bullpen

We have a full 14-game slate Friday with plenty of bats but one thing is certain – I want some Twins exposure versus Heath Fillmyer and the Royals’ league worst bullpen (4.53 SIERA). Fillmyer has posted a 3.29 ERA over 27.1 IP this season but his advanced run prevention metrics are ugly – 4.92 FIP, 4.89 xFIP, 5.02 SIERA. Fillmyer can’t generate any swings and misses (6.6 SwStr%) and has been outperforming his Minor League ground ball rates by about 15%. Once opposing teams start hitting fly balls things could get ugly for the Royals righty who hasn’t been able to generate a lot of soft contact. Logan Morrison is cheap on both sites, whereas Sano’s price tag sticks out big time on FanDuel.

Arlington Leadoff

Jonathan Villar returned from the DL on Thursday night to debut for his new team. Baltimore will continue their series down in Arlington on Friday night and Villar should continue his new leadoff role for the O’s. Villar has some pop (.137 ISO) to go along with stolen base potential (14 this season – 62 back in 2016 with the Brewers) and gives you strong upside at his price tag. A matchup versus Jurado isn’t a threatening one as Jurdao was unable to strike anyone out in AAA this season (13.9 K%) and that has carried over to the Majors where he hasn’t been able to generate swings and misses (5 SwSt%) or strikeouts (9.3 K%) in his two games started.

An Interesting Sneaky Stack

If you are looking for a sneaky stack that might fly under the radar tonight, give Oakland a look. Blaine Hardy hasn’t been awful, but his advanced metrics suggest regression, and right-handed bats have hit him for a 38% hard contact rate this year. Oakland does offer some power at the plate, and guys like Semien and Chapman offer some power potential. Mark Canha also has plenty of upside with a ridiculous .419 wOBA against lefties this year, and he absolutely has to be considered as part of any Oakland stack here.

Locked in at the Plate

The Rangers were one of the top stack selections on Friday night, and they put up a pile of runs against Andrew Cashner and company. A nice encore could be in store in a favorable hitting environment against David Hess, who owns an xFIP over 6.00 and ugly numbers at the MLB level this year. His minor league numbers are decent but not spectacular, and I don’t expect much in the way of success at the MLB level. He has been relatively splits-neutral, so just focus your attention on Texas’ top bats against RHP. Shin-Soo Choo owns the best wOBA mark at .378, while Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor offer the power upside. This whole lineup is in play as a full stack, too, given the matchup and hitting environment.

Fire Up the Lefty Power

Ever since the trade deadline, it appears as though these Washington bats have woken up. They have put up 40 runs over the last three games, and they draw another fine matchup tonight against Anthony DeSclafani, who has massively struggled against left-handed bats this year. LHBs have posted a wOBA north of .400 against him, his ground ball rate is all the way down to 31%, and he’s allowing hard contact at nearly a 50% clip. Yikes. All the Washington lefties are in play tonight, with the outfielders being elite plays across the board.

Looking For Value

On DK/FDRFT, we need just a few salary savers to afford either an ace pitcher or an expensive stack. The Orioles are again the team to come to for affordable bats in a good hitting environment. If Villar is back at the top of the lineup, he’s an easy way to get in play here. His only drawback is his strikeouts, but he faces a young pitcher in Ariel Jurado who was a far below average strikeout pitcher even at the lower levels of the minors.

Way On Top Again

The Rangers top the list again tonight with by far the highest projected team total, facing a low strikeout, high fly ball pitcher backed by a bad and tired bullpen. David Hess has just a 14.8% K rate to left-handed batters, while Choo leads off with his .244 ISO, .401 wOBA and 47% hard hits. He can get on base, pile up hits and runs or help himself with power. He is again way too cheap on FanDuel, and basically a must play in cash games there, and on DK/FDRFT, it’s play him if you can afford him.

Nice Upside at a Fine Price Tag

The command was a little shaky in the last start for Velasquez, but this is a nice spot for a potential bounce-back against a Marlins offense that doesn’t offer much in terms of thump at the plate. The good news is that he approached 100 pitches in that last outing, and it was the most pitches he has thrown since his return from the disabled list after his forearm injury. Velasquez has a 28% strikeout rate on the year and a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00, so this is the best combination of safety and upside you can get for a reasonable price tag.

Who Needs Wins?

Jacob deGrom has one win in his last 12 starts. Jacob deGrom has a 5-6 record on the season. What a terrible year it’s been for him, right? Wrong. In perhaps the biggest indictment ever on the usefulness of the “win” statistic, deGrom has five wins despite a ridiculously elite profile that includes a 1.82 ERA and 164 strikeouts in 138 innings pitched. He rarely gets blown up, he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact, and he has good control. I like his matchup a little better than Verlander tonight, as the Houston ace has to face a red hot Dodgers squad. Give me deGrom as the top pitcher on the board this evening.

Ahoy Matey!

There is really no reason to assume a new team is going to suddenly fix all of Archer’s problems. But the fact is that he has still been pretty good even in a down season, it’s just that we’re so use to dominance from him, that a 24.7% strikeout rate seems like a letdown. There’s clearly more talent lurking under the surface here, and he has a 27% strikeout rate to righties that should play well against the right-handed heavy Cardinals. He has also shown much better control against righties which helps him as much as the strikeout upside. He’s priced down enough that the upside outweighs the downside.

If You Want An Ace

It’s a loaded pitching slate in multiple pricing tiers, so it is not completely necessary to start with an ace tonight, but it’s always my preferred course at least in cash games if the salary works. We’re looking at Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander up top tonight, and while neither has an ideal matchup, it’s easier to be scared off of Verlander and his fly balls against an absolutely loaded Dodgers lineup.

deGrom has been ridiculously consistent this season, coming in with 13 straight quality starts and the lowest ERA of any starter in baseball. He piles up innings with a high 30.1% K rate, low 5.9% walks and a 25% soft contact rate that is the fourth-best mark in the league. There is no flaw in his skill set, and he has proven to be matchup proof. If you want a sure thing, this is a close as it comes.

Choo Choo!

My plan is to get as much exposure to this game as possible, but if I had to choose one offense over the other, I’d side with the Rangers. They have more talent in their lineup and they are playing at home, which never hurts. Their matchup is just as enticing, as Andrew Cashner has allowed a .376 xwOBA to lefties and a .359 xwOBA to righties. You can stack the Rangers or use Shin-Soo Choo as a one-off, as he owns a .420 xwOBA and a .247 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.