DFS Alerts

A Great Mid-Range Hurler

There is a natural tendency for us to shy away from using pitchers against the Astros, but this is not the same Houston offense we are used to seeing. They remain without two of their key hitters in Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, and you can make the argument that George Springer is not operating at 100%. They have averaged just 3.1 runs per game over their last eight contests. Kenta Maeda is definitely capable of pitching well against this team, and we know that Maeda has the ability to put up a good DFS performance. Maeda is carrying a respectable ERA, SIERA, and xFIP in the mid-threes, and his strikeout rate has spiked to a career-best 28.7% this season. The price point is appealing, too, in the mid-$8,000 range on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’ll gladly take that against a team that has been riddled with injuries and is losing the designated hitter spot in this series. Don’t let the name “Astros” scare you away here; the circumstances warrant usage for Maeda.

Top Arm on the Main Slate

Paxton showed literally zero rust in his return from the disabled list earlier in the week, firing seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts against the Astros. He was remarkably efficient in the process, needing just 82 pitches to get through those seven frames. I would expect him to get a slightly longer leash tonight in a decent matchup with the Blue Jays. His metrics remain elite across the board, with a 2.95 SIERA, 3.05 xFIP, and a 32% strikeout rate. Toronto has packed it in on the 2018 season, and let’s not forget that Paxton just happened to throw a no-hitter the last time he faced them. Even with perhaps a loose cap on his pitches, Paxton checks in as your top pitcher on the board this evening.

Two Top Values in a Great Spot

There is a path to Mike Minor potentially putting up a good performance here, given the awful nature of the Orioles as a team in general. However, I wouldn’t bank on it. As I mentioned above, Arlington is a great park for offense, and the Orioles will undoubtedly throw a RH-heavy lineup out there tonight. RHBs have posted a .342 wOBA and a 41% hard contact rate against Minor this year, and the Orioles do have some reasonable RHBs in their lineup. Both Jonathan Villar and Tim Beckham are going to get traction as value plays tonight, and they both make sense in all formats. They are very affordable, the matchup is there, and they bring some upside hitting in this park. Villar owns a .380 wOBA and a surprising 46% hard contact rate against LHP this year, and he carries much more fantasy appeal in Baltimore as long as he is going to be allowed to hit leadoff. Beckham has good career splits against lefties, as well, and he makes for a reasonable value.

Lefty Masher Alert!

The use of the humidor in Arizona has definitely sapped offense there this season, as the park ranks just 18th in park factors for home runs in 2018 after ranking fourth a year ago. However, the demise of offense at Chase Field has been exaggerated to some degree, as the park still ranks 10th in total runs. It’s essentially more of a neutral park now, but that’s not say that runs can’t be scored here. The RHBs for the Diamondbacks draw a fine matchup against Andrew Suarez tonight. While Suarez has been borderline dominant against lefties, the same can’t be said against righties, who have posted a .350 wOBA and 43% hard contact rate against him. Paul Goldschmidt is in a great spot, as he continues to live up to his reputation as a lefty masher. He owns a .421 wOBA and .298 ISO against lefties this year, numbers that are remarkably similar to his .429 and .270 career marks in those categories, respectively. Goldschmidt is my top bat on the slate this evening by a fairly wide margin, especially in cash games.

A Great Spot for a Hot Bat

Ivan Nova has always been significantly weaker against left-handed bats, but the problem here is that the Cardinals offer… well, not much in the way of left-handed bats. With Dexter Fowler breaking his foot last night, it’s basically just Matt Carpenter here. However, Matt Carpenter is very good, and he profiles well in this matchup. This is a great spot for a one-off play given Nova’s splits and Carpenter’s recent performance. Carpenter owns a .402 wOBA and .291 ISO against RHP this year, and he is making hard contact almost 50% of the time. These are full season splits and don’t even consider the fact that he was hitting about a buck fifty through the middle of May. He’s been ridiculous over the last two months and is clearly locked in. He hit a leadoff home run against Chris Archer on Friday and should be able to keep it rolling again here. Carpenter checks in as one of the top bats on this evening’s slate.

Site Dependent

Saturday’s top main slate pitching option is dependent on which site you’re playing on. James Paxton projects slightly better than Corey Kluber but Kluber offers a significant discount on DraftKings – $2,800 to be exact. Kluber’s stock would rise should Mike Trout remain out of the Angels lineup on Saturday and he would be my preferred option over Paxton on FanDuel if that’s the case. I still prefer Kluber’s discount over Paxton on DK even if Trout finds his way back into the lineup.

Delino DeShields scratched Friday

Delino DeShields has been scratched from Friday’s game against Baltimore with an headache. Carlos Tocci will take his place in the lineup and bat ninth.

The A’s are the west coast offense of interest tonight. Of the three games, they are the only offense above even 4.5 implied runs with their current total of 5.15. While they have a predominantly right-handed lineup against Blaine Hardy (17.4 K%, 4.49 SIERA, .305 xwOBA), who hasn’t been terrible and does get a park upgrade tonight, only Matt Chapman (128 wRC+, .189 ISO), Khris Davis (115 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Mark Canha (139 wRC+, .280 ISO) have really punished southpaws over the last calendar year. Canha bats seventh and Davis costs $5.2K on DK/$4.4K on FD. While RHBs have a .350 wOBA against Hardy since last season, they have an xwOBA of just .322. Chapman appears to be the most interesting play in this lineup with an ideal lineup spot and fairly affordable price.

Chris Stratton last started a major league game one month ago. While he did strike out 10 AAA batters two weeks ago, he last struck out more than three major league batters on June 1st. Batters from the left side have a .350 wOBA against him since last season. Batters from the right side have just a .324 wOBA, but 40.7 Hard% against him over that span. Batters from both sides are above a .350 xwOBA. Each of the two through six bats for the Arizona offense are above a 105 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Eduardo Escobar (132 wRC+, .302 ISO) has been the most dangerous bat against RHP over the last calendar year, but the bats in front of him are plenty dangerous as well: Paul Goldschmidt (113 wRC+, .212 ISO), David Peralta (133 wRC+, .215 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (108 wRC+, .223 ISO). Jon Jay (98 wRC+, .104 ISO) costs just $2.6K on FD in the leadoff spot.

Risk is lowered, but not gone in updated forecast for Friday

Kevin’s updated forecast is more optimistic than the morning version, but it’s still not entirely risk free. Players can read the full report now on the Weather page. Premium subscribers get further updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

Forty-seven point separation between wOBA and xwOBA vs LHBs

Players looking for value at the plate may be able to find some in Pittsburgh. While LHBs have a .324 wOBA against John Gant since last season, there’s a large 47 point gap between that and his xwOBA (.371), supported by a 55.3 Hard%. Pittsburgh plays neutrally towards LH power and offense overall. Both leadoff man Adam Frazier (107 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Colin Moran (107 wRC+, .141 ISO) cost $2.2K on FD and are below $4K on DraftKings. Gregory Polanco (122 wRC+, .241 ISO) is a fine bat in this spot as well, but costs $5.2K on DK.

One big bat still left in this lineup

Heath Fillmyer hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact through his first three major league starts (27.1% 95+ mph EV, 56.5 GB%), but has just a 2.6 K-BB% in 27.1 innings (some in relief). He had just a 6.2 K-BB% in 13 AAA starts as well this season and has never had a ground ball rate above 47% at any minor league level, so we don’t yet know if the batted ball profile is real. The Twins don’t have a ton of offense left in this lineup, but Eddie Rosario (152 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is one of the best in the league and one players definitely want to look at tonight for a team with the second highest run line on the board (5.53). Jorge Polanco (152 wRC+, .217 ISO) has some pop as well, though his xwOBA is nearly 100 points below his actual mark against RHP over that same one year span.

Hottest offense in the league (after trading away best bats) in a great spot tonight

The Baltimore Orioles just traded away their two biggest bats, so it makes complete sense that they’d have a major league leading 169 team wOBA with a 20.3 HR/FB over the last week. Tonight, they are fourth on the board with a 5.2 run line against a pitcher making his third major league start in Texas. Ariel Jurado gets his first home start, but struck out just four of 43 Astros and White Sox after just a 13.9 K% in 16 AA starts this season. Adam Jones (112 wRC+, .182 ISO) and Trey Mancini (93 wRC+, .173 ISO) are really the only Baltimore bats approaching average against RHP, but Jonathan Villar (85 wRC+, .104 ISO) and Tim Beckham (90 wRC+, .136 ISO) considering their low cost and lineup spots in this run environment.

In one of the most positive run environments on the board, the Rangers are more than three-quarters of a run above the next highest team at 6.3 implied runs against David Hess and a Baltimore bullpen that recently traded away all their top pieces. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Hess this year. Despite the fact that only Shin-soo Choo (132 wRC+, .234 ISO) and Joey Gallo (112 wRC+, .282 ISO) have been high quality bats against RHP over the last calendar year, this should get ugly for Baltimore pitching. Robinson Chirinos (105 wRC+, .196 ISO) is the next best hitter by both wRC+ and ISO vs RHP over that span. Adrian Beltre (100 wRC+, .136 ISO) is below $4K on DK/$3K on FD, which is too cheap considering the position he is in tonight (lineup spot, park, run line). Rougned Odor (88 wRC+, .184 ISO) isn’t very consistent, but remains hot (199 wRC+, 60 Hard% last seven days) at the top of the order.

A .355 wOBA and 10 HRs for LHBs since the end of April

Against Rick Porcello this season, LHBs have just a .319 wOBA, fairly impressive considering the issues he had against them last year and the environment in the AL East. However, since allowing his first HR of the season on April 29th, LHBs have a .355 wOBA against him with 10 of the 15 HRs he’s allowed. They have a .345 wOBA, 41.1 Hard% and 33.5 GB% against Porcello since last season. The Yankees are missing a few key RHBs, but the LH portion of their lineup is intact and filling three of the first four spots in the order. Brett Gardner (106 wRC+, .143 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Didi Gregorius (116 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (109 wRC+, .195 ISO) are all interesting bats in park that suppresses LH power, but boosts overall offense for a team with a healthy 4.79 implied run line.