DFS Alerts
Time for a Shelling
Andrew Cashner continues to find ways to not get shelled despite terrible metrics, but today he walks into what will amount to a very bad matchup for him against the Rangers in a hitter-friendly park. Strikeout pitchers can get through this lineup because of the amount of free swingers the Rangers have, but Cashner is not that guy. He carries a meager 6.8% swinging strike rate on the year. This is an elite matchup for Joey Gallo, and somehow Shin-Soo Choo is only $2,900 on FanDuel, where he is the best value of the day over there. Throw in the other Texas power bats and you can get an elite GPP stack at fairly reasonable price tags. I love the upside here.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor
Fire Up The Lefties
There’s no question that it has been a difficult year for Bryce Harper, but he has had one of the unluckiest seasons that I have ever seen for a hitter of his caliber. He has a .250 BABIP despite matching the highest hard contact rate of his career at almost 41%. Eventually, that luck will even out. He also draws a favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle tonight, as Mahle continues to struggle with left-handed hitters. Mahle has allowed a .414 wOBA and 45% hard contact rate to lefties this year. This could be the night for Harper to get back on track in a big way. Throw in the other lefties like Soto and Murphy and you have the makings of a high upside GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Daniel Murphy The Top of the Pitching Heap
We have quite a few high-end pitching options this evening, but I will side with Scherzer as my top selection. He rebounded from a string of disappointing performances (by his standards) with a dominant outing against the Marlins his last time out. He allowed just one unearned run over eight innings while piling up 11 strikeouts, and this is more like what we have come to expect from him with his 34.4% strikeout rate on the year. His upside is higher than Kershaw and company at this stage, making Scherzer the top dog on the slate for me.
Upside At A Discount
Nick Pivetta lacks the consistency of the aces, but for pure strikeout upside, he is as good as anyone. At this salary, I would say he has the highest points per dollar upside on the slate. His 29% K rate this season trails only Scherzer as the 2nd highest on the slate, and his low 6.9% walks and respectable 33% hard contact rate should help him here against a Marlins team with a lack of patience and a lack of power against right-handed pitching. He is not safe, but he has the ability to blow away this price tag tonight.
The Battle For Ace #2
I am not suggesting that you play both Scherzer and Greinke, but there will be certain lineup builds that just aren’t possible with Scherzer. At that point, it comes down to Zack Greinke vs Clayton Kershaw as your ace for the night. It is extremely close, and I love both guys with Kershaw beginning to round back into form. But the matchup is heavily in favor of Greinke tonight with Kershaw facing a low strikeout, high power opponent and Greinke getting a Giants team that is next to last in the league in ISO against right-handed pitching. Greinke has been in top form recently, he has high strikeouts and low walks with the ability to pile up innings.
The Class Of The Slate
There are three aces up top tonight with Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Scherzer rebounded from a brief slumber to strike out 11 batters in his last start. His 34.4% K rate for the season is a full 8% higher than Kershaw/Greinke, and gives him too much more upside to overlook. The Reds lineup is a shell of its former self and doesn’t have much power left to bother the fly ball style of Scherzer. He has huge strikeout upside everytime he takes the mound, and he has a floor from his low walks and ability to induce soft contact.
Start of Wednesday's MIA-ATL game delayed due to rain, Braves reiterate they'll make every effort to play tonight's game
The start of the matchup between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves on Wednesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates, though they did reiterate that they will make every possible effort to squeeze this game in should a viable dry window present itself. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Anibal Sanchez not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this initial weather stoppage is poised to be a lengthy one, making it impossible to entirely rule out a late postponement.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter
Tougher Positions
I’m swapping one of my Core Plays to Yoan Moncada tonight, as a standout play at a tough second base position. Jake Junis is a pitcher who will allow home runs in bunches, and there is also a brutal Royals bullpen behind him. Moncada leads off for one of the highest upside offenses on the slate, and he can help himself with power, and gains upside from the best run scoring environment of the night.
Seven of eight projected batters a .200 or better ISO vs RHP
Chase Anderson doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (28.7% 95+ mph EV), but has still allowed 8.5% Barrels/BBE and 19 HRs due to his 36.3 GB%. He’s pitched better recently (2.05 ERA, 3.28 FIP) over the last month and gets the most negative run environment on the board, but the Dodgers still have a 4.42 run line that’s third highest on the board. Still waiting on a confirmed lineup, but among those projected, Matt Kemp has both the lowest wRC+ (106) and ISO (.175) against RHP over the last calendar year. Each of the other seven projected batters have a .200 or better ISO vs RHP over that span. Considering Anderson’s reverse split (RHBs .318 wOBA, LHBs .295 wOBA this season), Manny Machado (140 wRC+, .252 ISO) would be the top bat here. He also leads those projected with a 179 wRC+ and 64.3 Hard% over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Chase Anderson
Major concern for one of tonight's more interesting games
The updated forecast is up and Kevin still has serious concerns about one spot. The entire report can be read on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will want to tune in to Crunch Time at 6:30 ET to get the latest from Kevin.
Six batters above a .200 ISO vs LHP
Five strikeouts in his last start is the highest total for Kyle Freeland since early June. After Matt Carpenter (144 wRC+, .276 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), the Cardinals will throw seven straight RHBs at him with only Marcell Ozuna (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) and Dexter Fowler (97 wRC+, .167 ISO) below a .210 ISO against southpaws over the last 365 days. Batters from that side of the plate have a .329 wOBA with 24 HRs against Freeland since last season, a .337 wOBA with 13 of those homers away from Coors. Yadier Molina (122 wRC+, .274 ISO) has the top highest ISO among RHBs against southpaws and costs just $2.9K on FD.
Other tagged players: Kyle Freeland, Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler Two more walks than strikeouts over his last seven starts
Dylan Covey in Seattle two starts back 8.1 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 5 K. It was the first time in six starts that he failed to allow at least four runs. He followed that up with six runs, two HRs and two strikeouts against the Angels and still has two more walks (19) than strikeouts (17) over his last seven starts. The Royals have a virtually empty lineup and 4.32 run line that’s tied for fourth best on the board tonight. Lucas Duda (105 wRC+, .229 ISO) is the first batter we see in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ or .180 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Brett Phillips (127 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Raul Mondesi (117 wRC+, .160 ISO) are the other above average bats. They hit sixth and ninth. Considering that Covey has allowed batters from either side of the plate a wOBA above .350 and an xwOBA within two points of .375 in his career, Whit Merrifield (97 wRC+, .115 ISO) and Salvador Perez (75 wRC+, .178 ISO) may still have some value at the top of the lineup. The latter has a 195 wRC+ with three HRs over the last week. Ryan O’Hearn had just an 86 wRC+ and .159 ISO at AAA this season. So, of course he homered in his first major league game. He costs the minimum on FD ($3.1K on DK), batting seventh.
Other tagged players: Dylan Covey, Ryan O'Hearn, Adalberto Mondesi, Brett Phillips, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez Top run line on the board has some concerns
The Braves sit happily atop the board at 4.84 implied runs tonight, but it’s not all good news. Pablo Lopez has allowed five HRs witn 9.2% Barrels/BBE in five starts and has an ERA and FIP around five as well, but he has shown some upside. He also has a 10.7 SwStr% (19 K%), 4.12 SIERA, and just a 29.9% 95+ mph EV, while keeping the ball on the ground more than 51% of the time against batters from either side of the plate. Considering the run line and the .388 xwOBA along with a .344 actual wOBA against LHBs, Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is still a top of the board play, along with Ozzie Albies (110 wRC+, .204 ISO) despite a 19 wRC+ (18.8 Hard%) over the last week. Ronald Acuna (136 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Nick Markakis (109 wRC+, .133 ISO) will likely be popular also. The major concern here has to do with the weather though. Kevin currently has it graded at Orange from his morning forecast with some skepticism about their ability to play this one.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Pablo Lopez, Nick Markakis, Ronald Acuna Yet another HR prone pitcher on tonight's slate, five in his last start
If it seems like home run prone pitchers are the theme on this Wednesday evening, it’s not going to stop now. Nick Tropeano allowed five HRs in his last start…at home…to the White Sox. He’s allowed 11 over his last seven starts and moves from one negative run environent to a similar one in Tampa Bay. While his HRs have been split evenly (seven each) this season, his wOBA allowed to LHBs is .371 vs .317 against RHBs. Kevin Kiermaier (95 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jake Bauers (126 wRC+, .248 ISO) are top third of the lineup LHBs. Michael Perez has a 223 wRC+ (50 Hard% over the last week with a .430 wOBA and xwOBA against RHP in just a few games. He bats fifth and costs $3.1K or less behind the plate. Tommy Pham (120 wRC+, .186 ISO) will attempt to make a better first impression on his new team from the cleanup spot than the one he left on his old team with a -30 wRC+ and just one hit over his last 13 PAs.
Other tagged players: Kevin Kiermaier, Michael Perez, Tommy Pham, Nick Tropeano At least three HRs allowed five times this season
The White Sox…yes, those White Sox, from Chicago, have the second highest run line on the board tonight (4.67) and that’s because Jakob Junis can’t keep the ball in the park. He’s allowed 25 HRs over 19 starts and transitions from a power suppressing park to a very power friendly one tonight. Five times this season Junis has allowed at least three HRs in a game. Junis doesn’t have much of a platoon split either. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .330 and .360 against him. This year, RHBs have five more HRs than LHBs. The White Sox have six batters in the lineup above a .170 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Each of the first five batters and Nick Delmonico (117 wRC+, .185 ISO), who has a 377 wRC+ over the last week. That’s third best among those with at least 10 PAs in the last seven days. Daniel Palka (110 wRC+, .275 ISO) leads the league with a 494 wRC+ and three HRs in 11 PAs. He’s the only bat in the lineup above $4.1K on DraftKings. Yoan Moncada (114 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Jose Abreu (120 wRC+, .223 ISO) are the only bats above $3K on FanDuel. While nobody probably wants to stack the White Sox, they can be sprinkled regularly throughout your lineup.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Nicky Delmonico, Jakob Junis, Yoan Moncada