DFS Alerts
Rays will throw some combination of Glasnow, Faria and others at Angels tonight
As is the usual case, without a single starting pitcher now listed on their depth chart, the Rays will be throwing their bullpen at the Angels tonight in Tampa Bay. Tyler Glasnow, who had been pitching out of the pen for the Pirates, will start. Jason Faria has been activated and is also expected to pitch at some point. No Shohei Ohtani tonight, but Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .326 ISO) and Justin Upton (132 wRC+, .236 ISO) should be in a position to succeed no matter what the Rays throw at them. Kole Calhoun (106 wRC+, .199 ISO) bats near the top of the lineup and has been rebounding (264 wRC+ last seven days). David Fletcher has a 131 wRC+ vs RHP, but with just a .079 ISO and .286 xwOBA.
Other tagged players: Jacob Faria
Ryon Healy scratched Wednesday; Zach Vincej replaces
Healy has been scratched from the Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Houston Astros due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Zach Vincej, who will play third base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Cameron Maybin and Mike Zunino up one batting position to fifth and sixth, respectively, while Guillermo Heredia vaults up to seventh and Andrew Romine shifts over to first base defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Dallas Keuchel at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter
Nine HRs over his last five starts
Nick Kingham has six walks against just four strikeouts over his last two starts and has allowed nine HRs over his last five starts, five of them at home. A well disciplined Cubs’ lineup is not going to help him. According to PlateIQ, tonight’s confirmed lineup has just an 8.9 K-BB% vs RHP this season. A 4.22 implied run line puts the Cubs on the middle of this 12 team board and LHBs have a .377 wOBA and 5.6 K-BB% against Kingham this year. Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the strongest play in this lineup out of the leadoff spot. Ben Zobrist (130 wRC+, .162 ISO) has a 305 wRC+ over the last week right behind him. He costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Javier Baez (122 wRC+, .253 ISO), Ian Happ (130 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (130 wRC+, .290 ISO) are the top power bats in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Kingham At least four runs in five straight starts and 22 HRs to RHBs this year
Getting out of Texas should help Cole Hamels and his first start for the Cubs is in Pittsburgh, a park that suppresses RH power (though not RH offense overall). The Cubs have just a 3.78 run line that’s third lowest on the board tonight, but it’s difficult to find the optimism here. Hamels has allowed 23 HRs over 20 starts, 22 of them to RHBs, but also 16 at home in Texas. Park effects can’t fully explain an 11.12 ERA in July. He’s allowed at least five runs in four straight games, seven of them in three. Hamels has somehow been able to turn a 13.1 SwStr% into just a 16.4 K% over the last 30 days. RHBs have a .335 wOBA against Hamels since last year, again not all park effects, as the xwOBA is .349 with an equal 42% ground ball and hard hit rate. This Pittsburgh lineup doesn’t really have a lot of potency against LHP over the last calendar year. Only David Freese (107 wRC+) is above a 95 wRC+ among the first six batters and that comes with a lineup low .104 ISO. A .376 xwOBA is 43 points above his actual though. Jordan Luplow (91 wRC+, .270 ISO) has some pop out of the leadoff spot at a cost of $3.7K on DK. Both he and Freese cost only $2.5K on FanDuel. Francisco Cervelli (85 wRC+, .180 ISO) is another affordable option at a weak position.
Other tagged players: David Freese, Francisco Cervelli, Cole Hamels Daily Bullpen Alert: Two pens with a 6.6 K-BB% over the last month
Bullpens continue to be difficult to analyze at this point in the year due to all the moving pieces at the trade deadline. Regardless, none of the five teams above a 4.7 FIP over the last month are in play tonight, but the only remaining two above a 4.5 FIP (Marlins and Royals) are and both have a terrible 6.6 K-BB% over the last 30 days and are not among the bullpens who have improved this week. The Cardinals (4.44 FIP, 7.1 K-BB%) are another one to watch. Luke Weaver doesn’t often go deep into games, but the Rockies are a horrendous offense both on the road and vs RHP. Rich Hill, Dylan Covey and Nick Tropeano are the other starters averaging just over five innings per start. Hill has been extremely efficient lately, as has his bullpen (3.54 FIP, 25 K-BB%). Covey has a mediocre pen behind him (4.38 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%), if you’re interested in Kansas City bats. The Angels have been very mediocre recently as well (4.19 FIP, 12.6 K-BB%), which is actually an improvement.
Sneaky Upside for the White Sox
The fact that Jakob Junis allows so many home runs should immediately give us interest in the White Sox offense. They don’t have the deepest lineup in baseball, but they certainly have some talent. On the season, Junis has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a 41%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Yoan Moncada is always on my radar when facing a mediocre right-handed pitcher, Jose Abreu is always on my radar against fly-ball pitchers, and you can complete the stack with the likes of Yolmer Sanchez, Avisail Garcia, and Daniel Palka.
Stacking Against a Fly-Ball Pitcher
The Dodgers draw a home run-friendly matchup against Chase Anderson. Even though he’s had reverse splits throughout his career, I don’t mind targeting batters from either side of the plate in this one. Every single batter in their projected lineup has a hard contact rate of at least 36% against right-handed pitching and each of the first five has a .360+ xwOBA against righties. This is a great spot to stack the Dodgers in hopes that they can take advantage of Anderson’s high fly-ball and hard contact rates.
Talent and Strikeout Upside is Hard to Pass Up
Weaver has taken a big step back, after a really impressive rookie season. In 21 starts this season, he has a 4.34 SIRA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 8%. Those numbers aren’t where many expected them to be at this point of the season. While there are some concerns, he’s priced down to $7,000 on DraftKings and he gets to face a strikeout-happy Rockies’ offense at home in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. The projected lineup for Colorado has an average xwOBA of .314 with a strikeout rate of 28% against right-handed pitching this season.
Great Matchup at Home in a Pitcher-Friendly Ballpark
Sanchez has cooled off a bit recently, but he still owns a SIERA under four with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 8%. After years of allowing too much hard contact, he has posted one of the highest soft contact rates (26%) of any starter in baseball. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .298 with a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching. In a slate that features very few pitching options, I see Sanchez as an elite play in all formats.
One high priced pitcher and a lot of speculation on a six game main slate
Rich Hill is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on the six game night slate and he does so only on FanDuel ($400 less on DraftKings). Pitching for Wednesday night is going to require some work. Hill has a 29.5 K% over the last month with a 2.42 ERA, 3.37 SIERA, and .288 xwOBA. He pitched seven innings in two of his four July starts, but despite not reaching 100 pitches in any, he threw at least 95 in each of his last three. The Brewers don’t strike out as much against LHP (21.1%), but have just an 83 wRC+ in the most negative run environment on the board. Anibal Sanchez (23.4 K%, 3.98 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) allowed three HRs and eight runs to the Nationals and Dodgers over his last two starts, but gets to face the Marlins (88 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP) tonight. Luke Weaver (21.1 K%, 4.34 SIERA, .336 xwOBA) is inconsistent, but costs exactly $7K on both sites at home against the Rockies (81 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP) and may be the top value pitcher on the board. Chase Anderson allows a lot of HRs (19), but his 28.7% 95+ mph EV is one of the lowest on the board. His strikeout rate is up to 20% over the last month and while he faces a difficult Dodgers’ offense (110 wRC+ vs RHP), he gets to do so in the most negative run environment on the board at a cost below $7.5K. Tyler Glasnow costs just $5.5K on FanDuel, but may only go a few innings, as speculated by Rays beat writers on Twitter yesterday. Pablo Lopez has allowed five HRs in five starts and has an ERA and FIP around five. He also has a 10.7 SwStr% (19 K%), 4.12 SIERA, and just a 29.9% 95+ mph EV despite 9.2% Barrels/BBE. He could serve as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, if necessary, though Kevin has been a bit skeptical on the weather in Atlanta tonight, which could wash out both he and Sanchez.
Other tagged players: Chase Anderson, Anibal Sanchez, Pablo Lopez, Luke Weaver Hard hitting offense could pose some threat to hard contact prone pitcher in late afternoon game
We’ll have to do some projecting on late afternoon lineups not yet released, but hard hitting Oakland lineup (4.27 implied runs) could do some damage against a ground ball machine, yet hard contact prone Marcus Stroman (89.4 mph aEV). While RHBs have a .323 wOBA that’s 19 points better than LHBs against Stroman since last year, xwOBA reverses that, giving LHBs (.333) a 17 point advantage. Nick Martine has a 160 wRC+ and .167 ISO vs RHP so far, but Matt Chapman (125 wRC+, .223 ISO), Jed Lowrie (133 wRC+, .202 ISO), Khris Davis (146 wRC+, .308 ISO) and Matt Olson (144 wRC+, .314 ISO) have all been very dangerous against RHP over the last calendar year. In the game in Seattle, Alex Bregman (180 wRC+, .316 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) needs to be mentioned despite Wade LeBlanc’s reveres split (RHBs .280 wOBA since 2017), which xwOBA doesn’t believe anyway (.333). Tyler White (199 wRC+, .385 ISO) is obviously dealing with a much smaller sample size, but is cheap and could improve his lineup spot due to injuries.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Marcus Stroman, Alex Bregman, Wade LeBlanc, Tyler White Each of four late afternoon pitchers could be of interest
Pitching from the late afternoon games is available on the DraftKings main afternoon slate and all four arms could be of nearly equal interest in negative run environments all separated by no more than $1.1K in price. Marcus Stroman allows a lot of hard contact (89.4 mph aEV), healthy or not, but at his best, he will keep most of it on the ground (62 GB%) and generate enough strikeouts (18%). That’s a bit dangerous against an Oakland offense with a split high 23.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but he’s an affordable arm in a favorable park, who has gotten at last two outs in the seventh in four of his last six starts. Dallas Keuchel is similar in the ground ball respect (54.5%), but while both that and his 17.9 K% are both decreased this year, he differs from Stroman mostly by contact authority. He had a -7.9 Hard-Soft% in July. The main difficulty in his matchup in Seattle is a 20.9 K% vs LHP for the home team. Sean Manaea has a respectable 3.77 ERA in July, but with just a 13.9 K%. He’s somehow done that with a double digit SwStr% in each of his last four starts, which barely seems possible. The Blue Jays get a park down grade and have just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP. The Wade LeBlanc revival was thought to be over a couple of times, but he’s allowed just four runs with 16 strikeouts over his last two starts (13.1 IP). He has a reverse split against a predominantly RH Houston lineup that’s still without two of their top bats. His 19.7 K% is highest of the four. This banged up Houston offense has a 59 wRC+ and 15.7 K-BB% over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Wade LeBlanc, Marcus Stroman, Sean Manaea Top bats and value plays from a top projected lineup this afternoon
Only the Yankees top the Indians’ 5.18 run line this afternoon on basically every slate available. RHBs have a .350 wOBA and 36.9 GB% against Adalberto Mejia for his career. Most simply, Francisco Lindor (157 wRC+, .236 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (148 wRC+, .248 ISO) have torched LHP almost as well as RHP over the last calendar year. Brandon Guyer (148 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Yan Gomes (137 wRC+, .255 ISO) are value options lower in the order, though you may have to worry about Guyer potentially being hit for. On the other side, while Carlos Carrasco is the clear top pitcher on this board, he does have an 89.3 mph aEV this season and LHBs have been about average against him since last season (.314 wOBA, .311 xwOBA). Don’t sleep entirely on Eddie Rosario (151 wRC+, .288 ISO) or even Jorge Polanco (157 wRC+, .219 ISO) near the top of the order on a small slate.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes, Brandon Guyer, Carlos Carrasco, Adalberto Mejia, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco Power vs Power
We’ve got some of the leagues most home run prone pitchers on the slate tonight in the Royals Jake Junis, the Pirates Nick Kingham and the Angels Nick Tropeano. Tropeano is fresh off a start where he allowed five home runs, and is over 40% hard contact allowed to both right and left-handed batters with below average 19.5% strikeouts to lefties. So far in his rookie season, Jake Bauers has a .248 ISO and 43% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching and has also shown good patience along with the power upside. He is my top Rays bat to play against the power from Tropeano.
Have To Play Somebody
This is an awful pitching slate, but they are going to make us play somebody. The goal tonight is simply not to have your pitcher get shelled. Every pitcher, Weaver included, is at risk, so I do recommend spreading out in tournaments. But given the salary and the matchup, Luke Weaver is the guy I’ll start with. He’s been a little better recently, he has decent control with average strikeouts and has been getting his hard contact back down towards where it was last season. He’s solid against right-handed bats, and faces a Rockies team with only one dangerous lefty. I don’t love it, but if I don’t love anybody, I prefer to save some salary with something kind of decent.