DFS Alerts
Positive Regression is Brewing
You may not believe that luck plays a big role in baseball, but very few pitchers can sustain a BABIP of .344 and a HR/FB rate of 16%. For reference the major league averages for those two statistics are close to .300 and 10%. In other words, Pivetta hasn’t been very fortunate when it comes to batted balls this season. His advanced statistics suggest positive regression, as he currently owns a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He’s been dominant against righties this season and there are really only two lefties (Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour) that we should be concerned with in this Marlins’ lineup.
Highest Floor/Ceiling Combination
Scherzer has been elite in every sense of the word. There is always the debate about who the best pitcher in baseball is. While I’ll concede that the honor belongs to Chris Sale, Scherzer isn’t far behind. In 22 starts this season, he has a 2.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. The most impressive statistic this season has been his soft contact rate (24%). Pitchers with high velocity fastballs tend to give up a lot of hard contact, but that hasn’t been the case for Scherzer. While the Reds have some capable hitters in their lineup, I wouldn’t call this a bat matchup, especially in this ballpark. Scherzer deserves to be considered the top overall pitcher tonight.
Tyler Clippard will start for the Blue Jays on Thursday
The Toronto Blue Jays have announced that right-handed pitcher Tyler Clippard will get the start on the mound for Thursday’s opening game against the Seattle Mariners as the Blue Jays are poised to utilize their third bullpen day in the last 11 days. The previous two bullpen days were started by Luis Santos and John Axford, both of whom were relatively effective in their abbreviated outings. The Blue Jays are just the latest MLB team to adopt a variation of the Tampa Bay Rays’ opening relief pitcher approach over a traditional starting pitcher but unlike the Rays, the Blue Jays don’t appear to be deploying single long-man out of the pen to soak up a majority of the team’s innings in these contests, making them a difficult team to in daily fantasy formats in these instances.
As reported by: Shi Davidi via Twitter
Braves Look to Chop Vargas
While many may look at Texas as the top stack of the night, the Braves also find themselves in an appealing position squaring off against Jason Vargas. Vargas has the second-highest SIERA on the slate, and has allowed wOBAs of .398 and .366 to LHH and RHH, respectively. Part of Vargas’s problem is he has a hard time keeping the ball in the yard, as he has also allowed 2.38 HR/9 to lefties and 2.64 HR/9 to hitters from the right side. The whole top half of the Braves order is in play here, with Vargas showing no real strengths splits-wise. Freddie Freeman is an interesting contrarian target, as many will shy away from the lefty-lefty matchup despite Vargas’s struggles against LHH all season.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
Site Specific Values
On FanDuel, $2,900 leadoff outfielders are the story of the day with Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Eaton and Joc Pederson. Adam Eaton is the one I’ll leave off outside of stacks on DK/FDRFT, but I like him a lot in cash games as well as Nationals stacks on FanDuel. The one thing Tyler Mahle can do against lefties is get moderate strikeouts, but he allows far too much hard contact. Eaton’s outstanding plate skills override those strikeouts with his low K’s and 44% hard hits leading to a .384 wOBA against righties.
Another Good Leadoff Hitter
On FanDuel, $2,900 leadoff outfielders are the story of the day with Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Eaton and Joc Pederson. On DK/FDRFT, Pederson is the cheapest of the trio, and has all kinds of on base upside combined with power at a fair salary. Jhoulys Chacin is a pitcher with low strikeouts and shaky control to lefties, while Pederson doesn’t strikeout, takes walks, and has the power to hit home runs if he gets a pitch to hit. He has a lot of ways to score points tonight.
The Scherzer Pivot
Zack Grienke has been at peak performance lately, going at least 7 innings and racking up 26 K’s in his last 3 starts (and only allowing 2 ER in the process). Facing a Giants team that has the third lowest team ISO on the slate and strikes out at a 23.8% clip, Grienke has a high floor in today’s matchup. If you are looking to get away from Scherzer, Grienke makes a lot of sense the next-best option with both a solid floor and high upside.
Great Pitch Type Spot To Attack
Nick Pivetta is a top pitcher on the slate for me, but if there’s one guy that can give him trouble, I think it’s Justin Bour. Bour has a nice price tag tonight and has the upside to be a really good tournament play. It’s also a nice leverage spot off of one of the chalky pitchers on this slate. Pivetta throws his fastball 53% of the time against left-handed hitters and only throws it 47% of the time against right-handed hitters. He uses his slider and curveball a lot more against righties, and it’s been very effective for him. Meanwhile, Bour hits both fastballs and curveballs well. Those are the two pitches Pivetta relies on against lefties, and Bour’s getting a nice ballpark bump in this matchup.
Nice Upside At His FanDuel Price
On FanDuel I usually tag my salary guys under $8,000, but I think Foltynewicz provides value at $8,500, and the options under $8,000 are pretty bad tonight. Folty should see five righties and the pitcher tonight, and he continues to be lights out against righties. He has a .279 wOBA with a .117 ISO and a 30% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters in 2018. The power lefties continue to get to him, but his strikeout rate against lefties is still 26.9%, which helps his upside here. Nimmo and Flores are the only two hitters in this lineup with an ISO over .200 against righties this season, and Nimmo has a 27.7% strikeout rate. This projected starting lineup has a 23.9% strikeout rate against righties. I like Folty on FanDuel a lot tonight, as he’s going to allow you to get some big bats here.
Let's Hope For The High End
I think paying up for pitching is the way to go tonight, but if you’re looking for a cheap SP2, Erlin is the guy. Outside of Baez and Contreras, the Cubs have struggled with hitting for power against left-handed pitching this season. They have a combined .159 ISO and a 20% strikeout rate. Erlin increased his curveball usage in the month of July, and if he does that in this start, there are a lot of swinging strikes in this lineup against curveballs. In 152 PAs against righties, he has a .258 wOBA with a .138 ISO and a -0.9% hard to soft contact ratio. A lot of that is out of the bullpen. I worry about his pitch count (I’d guess 60-75 pitches), and that’s one of the reasons why I would only play him in large field tournaments.
I’ll Take It
On this slate, I am simply willing to take a couple pure punts just to make things work. If Robinson is in the lineup for the Yankees, at this salary, all he needs to do is put a ball or two in play, which is the one thing he can do. It’s nothing great but it’s cheap and on a team that should have lots of run scoring chances tonight.
Time to Develop Some Consistency
Consistency has been the knock on Pivetta throughout his brief career, but the upside is clearly there on a nightly basis, and that’s what we care about when it comes to DFS GPP play. His metrics are elite with a nearly 30% strikeout rate and 12% swinging strike rate, and his SIERA and xFIP are in the low threes. His surface numbers are belied by a .344 opposing BABIP, which suggests terrible luck this season. A matchup with the weak-hitting Marlins should be a great way for Pivetta to get back on track, and he’s by far my favorite affordable pitching option on the slate tonight.
The Top Of The Top
There are a couple of high end offenses tonight, but Texas at home against Andrew Cashner and a bad Orioles bullpen are on the top of my list. Shin-Soo Choo is at a ridiculous savings on FanDuel, and basically a must-play there. On DK/FDRFT, he is more appropriately priced, but still the guy I would want to start with his 47% hard hit rate and patience at the plate leading to a .247 ISO and .406 wOBA against righties.
Hot and Cold Then Hot and Cold
The Dodgers have become streakier than a drunk 21 year old. They were awful in April and May before getting red hot in June, but they have once again started to slip a bit offensively. When you combine that with a late night start, ownership likely won’t be very high here against a reasonably competent pitcher in Chacin. However, there’s sneaky upside for the lefty power bats here. Chacin has allowed a .333 wOBA and 39% hard contact rate to lefties this year, and the likes of Pederson, Muncy, and Bellinger can absolutely hit for power in this matchup. Use this group as a sneaky GPP stack tonight.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger Salary Is At A Premium
The key to tonight on DK/FDRFT is finding some salary savers to fit in the high end pitching and a couple big bats. There is not a lot to be found, but Kyle Seager is a standout value for a Seattle team facing a bullpen game against a bad Toronto bullpen. Seager missed a few days on the paternity list, but should be back tonight with his high fly ball rate giving him power upside, and with a parade of relievers and quality hitters ahead of him, he should have plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.