DFS Alerts

Great Pitching Available in St. Louis

Flaherty continues to fly under the radar. I’m not sure what more he needs to prove at this point, but I will gladly continue playing him in DFS at low ownership. In 16 starts this season, he owns a 3.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He’s still underpriced across the industry and he gets to square off against a strikeout-happy Rockies’ offense that has struggled on the road this season. Most of my lineups tonight will feature Flaherty or Jon Gray and I wouldn’t rule out using the two together in hopes that this turns into a pitcher’s duel.

Favorite Point Per Dollar Pitcher of the Slate

While Tanaka doesn’t quite have as high of a raw projection as Trevor Bauer, he’s considerably cheaper across the industry. He’s coming off of a complete game shutout against the Rays and now gets to face an Orioles’ offense that will be limping its way to the finish line here in the second half of the season. Baltimore’s projected lineup has seven righties in it and an average xwOBA of .305 with a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.

Top projected lineup tonight could be a bit over-priced

Despite the continued absence of Aaron Judge and an interesting arm on the mound against them (Yefry Ramirez 25.6 K%, 13.4 SwStr%, 3.49 ERA, 3.83 SIERA), the Yankees still top the board by a wide margin with a 5.75 run line. No other team is currently above 5.5 and only one other offense is above 5.1 runs. While Ramirez has had some issues with LHBs (.348 wOBA), his xwOBA is 48 points lower and just 10 points above his .290 xwOBA against RHBs, but lefties don’t have to do much to do damage in this park. It’s difficult to find the Yankee bat you need in your lineup without Judge though. Each of the first eight batters are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, but none are above 120. Miguel Andujar (120 wRC+, .174 ISO) is the only batter two through seven below a .200 ISO, but nobody is above .250 vs RHP over the same span. Cost makes this a difficult lineup to stack, though it seems more possible on FanDuel. Giancarlo Stanton (118 wRC+, .250 ISO) is the lineup’s top bat. Pay up for Yankee bats if you want, but it doesn’t seem a necessity against an interesting arm.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Bullpens in motion

Bullpen analysis is very difficult to do today (or this week) with moving pieces all around the league. Relievers may be traded during the writing of this post. Going by the last 30 days, the Indians (5.56 FIP, 9.7 K-BB%) and Indians (5.26 FIP, 14.3 K-BB%) are the only two pens above a five FIP, but both have recently acquired top end of the bullpen arms and the Cleveland pen has been above average by K-BB. Focusing on pitchers who are averaging five innings or less per start, there are four of them plus that special situation in Tampa Bay, where Stanek and Yarbrough should combine for around seven innings. Sam Gaviglio and Drew Pomeranz are the only members of that club with more than five starts on the season. Gaviglio has been fine and while the Toronto pen has a 15.8 K-BB% over the last month, it comes with a 4.67 FIP. Pomeranz has been terrible, but the Boston bullpen has been better (3.71 FIP, 15.5 K-BB%). Wade Miley has a great park and strong bullpen behind him (3.65 FIP, 15.1 K-BB%) with some arms more concerning than others. Yefry Ramirez pitches in Yankee Stadium with the Orioles (4.23 FIP, 13.4 K-BB%) moving some pieces around this week. The Royals (4.49 FIP), Mets (4.86), Marlins (4.49) and Cardinals (4.26) all have a sub-7 K-BB% over the last 30 days.

Upside and risk on the middle of the board

Middle of the board pitchers come with some risk tonight, but you’ll also find upside that matches the highest priced pitchers in some cases. One such arm is Jon Gray. He’s focused on ground balls since returning from AAA, throwing 14.1 innings at Coors, allowing just two runs to the Astros and Mariners, striking out 12 with a ground ball rate above 65%. Last season, he changed his pitch usage to get ground balls at home, but strikeouts on the road. He gets a massive park upgrade where he’ll face an offense with a 94 wRC+ vs RHP in St Louis. His 28.2 K% is fourth best on the board, his 3.23 SIERA is second. He’s had issues shaking a .350+ BABIP this year though. On the other side of that matchup, Jack Flaherty has the third best strikeout rate on the board (29.7%) and is fourth best in SIERA (3.40) and xwOBA (.290). His 85.9 mph aEV tops the board among tonight’s starters. He hasn’t exceeded five innings in four straight starts and has a 17.6 HR/FB. He may be in the top park adjusted spot on the board, hosting the Rockies (80 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP). Trevor Cahill out43.2 IP – 10 ER – 11 BB – 41 K – 165 BF. He’s also been below a 57 GB% just once outside that state, as opposed to below that all four times pitching in it. His 13.0 SwStr% is a top five mark on tonight’s board. He pitches against a decent Toronto offense, but in a favorable home park. side four trips to the state of Texas this year: Walker Buehler did not pitch well in his first start after the break (5 ER, 2 HR), but was up to 90 pitches, which should get him through six with efficiency tonight. He faces a dangerous Milwaukee offense (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but in the best park with some upside. Their 25.1 K% vs RHP matches his 25.3% season mark. Jameson Taillon started throwing his slider in earnest in his 11th start of the season with the following results: 3.09 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 18.2 K-BB%, 50.8 GB%. For some reason, he’s been below 20% on the pitch in each of his last three starts with an increase in curveballs. The Cubs have just an 11.2 K-BB% with a 106 wRC+ vs RHP, so it’s not going to be easy, but it’s doable. Danny Duffy has struck out just 10 of his last 57 batters and allowed seven runs to the Tigers last time out, but the White Sox are very, very bad (18.6 K-BB% at home, 85 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% vs LHP). Zack Godley has a 25.6 K% with a 15 SwStr% over the last month with a 3.91 SIERA over that span, but a much higher ERA due to a .378 BABIP and 62.2 LOB%. The Rangers have a 25.6 K% and 92 wRC+ vs RHP.

Tonight's most expensive arms may not necessarily be the best values

Exactly half the teams on a 14 game slate are below four implied runs tonight, though only four pitchers are above a 28 K% and only one is below a .288 xwOBA. It’s a middle heavy pitching board with some depth and some upside, but also a lot of risk. Trevor Bauer is the only pitcher on the board above $10K on both sites. Nobody else is within $2K of him on either site. Three more are above $9K on FanDuel and $10K on DraftKings, two of them above $11K on DK. This quartet includes just two of the top four strikeout rates on the board, but both who reach 30% (Bauer and Charlie Morton). Bauer gets a slight park upgrade tonight against an offense that just traded one of their top LHBs and has a 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP. Minnesota is still one of the most positive run environments on the board and the Twins have just a 12.2 K-BB% vs RHP. Bauer’s edge over other high strikeout pitchers is in a higher floor (less risk) and workload (has recorded a 7th inning out in 16 of 22 starts). Charlie Morton has as much upside as Bauer (1% difference in K%), but doesn’t seem to hit it as often. He’s reached double digits six times, though struck out five or fewer seven times. He’s in a better park (Seattle), but the Mariners have just a 20 K% vs RHP. Tyler Skaggs has gone at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts and has allowed more than one ER just once over that span and has a 25.5 K% on the season. He transitions from one favorable park to another in Tampa Bay in a marginal matchup (104 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs LHP). Masahiro Tanaka threw a three hit shutout at those Rays last time out, striking out nine. That’s his upside. A 13.9 SwStr% is best on the board. Of course, the downside is obvious in Tanaka as well (18 HRs in 16 starts). He’ll make just his sixth home start this season and his first since May. The Orioles (87 wRC+ and 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP) have a team 180 wRC+, 1.4 K-BB% and 23.5 HR/FB over the last week. These are all top of the board arms tonight and difficult to argue against with the available salary, but there are some riskier lower priced pitchers who could match the upside.

A Loaded Position

The hitting pricing is tight on DK/FDRFT tonight, where every dollar will matter. As much as I’d like to pay up to Francisco Lindor or Manny Machado, Trea Turner stands out as the shortstop value, hitting at the top of the Nationals lineup with his outstanding plate skills (14:14 K:BB ratio vs LHP). Once he gets on base, this is a high upside stolen base spot with Steven Matz being one of the easiest pitchers to steal on in the league. Matz has allowed 20 SB already this season, while Turner is tied for 3rd in the league with 24 SB.

Power + Speed

Similar to the Nationals, the Red Sox find themselves in a spot conducive for both power and speed on Tuesday night. Despite relative success this season, Arrieta has historically been terrible in preventing stolen bases (career -12 rSB). He’s also seen a declining strikeout rate (17.2%) coincide with a near career low SwStr% (7.1%) this season. Mookie and Benintendi are both expensive but could see an ownership discount because of their high tags on a full slate – I like using the two Boston OF’s as lineup fillers because both guys can get you points at the plate and on the base paths. JDM is obviously a great power play but is unlikely to get you the stolen base bonus points (although he does have 3 this year!) that we’re chasing. If going with an all out Red Sox stack I prefer filling in with some bottom of the order guys that should see single-digit ownership and once again can get you points with their legs (Eduardo Nunez/JBJ).

Everything Lines Up

The Braves are one of the four teams on this slate with a team total of over 5 runs, and Freddie Freeman will be right in the middle of the action. He has home run power,along with the elite plate skills and on base ability. with Dan Straily walking too many lefties, Freeman will either have runners on base ahead of him to bat in, or he’ll get on base himself and have run scoring upside. He has a lot of ways to help in all formats tonight, though I like him best as a cash game option. If the weather in Atlanta gets too dicey to risk in cash games, I would pivot to Paul Goldschmidt here.

Power Stack

Despite the continued absence of Judge, the Yankees remain one of the most powerful offenses in baseball. Tuesday night they’ll square off against Yefry Ramirez who gave up three HRs to the Red Sox his last time out. Ramirez has been solid for the O’s this season but will be outmatched by the Yankees and will eventually turn the game over to one of the worst bullpens in the Majors (4.25 SIERA – third worst this season). The typically expensive Yankees stack will actually be affordable tonight as the absence of Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge moves more affordable hitters up the order.

Away From Home

Two of my favorite pitching options for Tuesday’s slate come from the same game. Jon Gray’s 5.16 SIERA is very deceiving as he has been mostly tremendous this season. Gray is the owner of the slate’s second best SIERA (3.23), fourth best strikeout rate (28.2%) and third best SwStr% (13.2%). A matchup against the Cardinals is mostly neutral (22.2 K%; 94 wRC+) but Gray gets a massive park shift in his favor traveling out of Coors. You could argue Gray makes for a “safer” play than Flaherty due to his track record (career 3.62 SIERA, 25.7 K%).

Talent + Price + Matchup

While Trevor Bauer is the most talented pitcher on Tuesday’s slate, Jack Flaherty has the best combination of talent + price + matchup. Flaherty is the owner of a 3.40 SIERA over 85 innings this season and has shown very strong strikeout stuff with a 12.6 SwStr% and 29.7 K%. Flaherty will matchup up against a Rockies offense away from Coors that owns the third worst wRC+ (80) versus RHP this season. I wouldn’t consider Flaherty “cheap” on DraftKings but he’s priced as SP12 on FanDuel and his $7,700 price tag allows you some flexibility when filling out the remainder of your roster. Flaherty could see an ownership dip on DraftKings due to his higher price tag ($9,400) and makes for an especially strong GPP option there.

Chase Events

A pitcher that struggles with the long ball (15.9% HR/FB) and can’t prevent stolen bases (-2 rSB)? Sounds like a pitcher you should stack against. Stacking 101: we don’t want a team to single the opposing pitcher to death, we want HRs and we want stolen bases. The Nationals have arguably the best stolen base matchup of the night to go along with one of the best power matchups of the night. Trea should be a lock in your cash game lineups while guys like Harper and Soto may go a bit under-owned because they don’t have the platoon advantage. Michael A Taylor is a border line cash game option and a great GPP option due to his stolen base upside and cheap price tag.

It's All About The Price Tag

Brandon Dixon has struggled since being called up, but he grades out so much better than his current numbers. He has a .103 ISO with a 32 wRC+ in 39 Major League at bats, but in AAA this season, he posted a .223 ISO with a .958 OPS and a 168 wRC+. Boyd has pitched well against righties this season, but his low strikeout rate makes him very hittable. I’m not expecting much tonight, but with limited value options on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, it’s hard not to consider Dixon at $2,800.

Should Be A Lot Of Contact

I still haven’t figured out Sam Gaviglio, but I do know he has some big-time strikeout splits. He has a 26.5% strikeout rate against righties but only a 15.2% strikeout rate against lefties. Attacking him with lefties has been working, and I’m not going to stop in this spot.

Martini has shown strong contact skills since being called up and continues to hit right-handed pitching well. He should hit leadoff tonight, and he has a .404 wOBA with a .179 ISO against righties since being called up.