DFS Alerts
Start of Tuesday's MIA-ATL game delayed due to rain, Braves reiterate they'll make every effort to get the game in
The start of the matchup between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates, though they did reiterate that they will make every possible effort to squeeze this game in should a viable dry window present itself. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall appeal, but the delay could still be a positive sign for hitters if the game ever gets underway following this likely lengthy initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter
Pair of 140+ wRC+ bats against LHP with a .363 wOBA vs RHBs since last year
Wade Miley has excelled at generating a lot of weak (86.4 mph aEV) ground balls (53.1%) in front of one of the top defenses through five starts for the Brewers and pitches in the most negative run environment on the board tonight. With that said, he has struggled mightily against RHBs since last season (.363 wOBA, 48.9 GB%) and the Dodgers have two in the projected lineup, who have hammered southpaws over the last calendar year in Manny Machado (141 wRC+, .248 ISO) and Matt Kemp (142 wRC+, .266 ISO). Both Kike Hernandez (99 wRC+, .186 ISO) and Chris Taylor (96 wRC+, .184 ISO) have both declined in their efforts against southpaws, but could still have some value if batting in the upper half of the lineup. The Dodgers have just a 4.45 implied run line, but that’s upper part of the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Wade Miley, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor
Leading Off With Runs
If you are going to spend up to Trevor Bauer on FanDuel, you’ll need a couple value bats in the mid-$2k range, and getting a leadoff hitter for a high upside team against Bartolo Colon at just $2,600 is too good to ignore. He is virtually guaranteed to get the ball in play multiple times with his strong contact skills and the low 12.4% strikeout rate of Colon against lefties. With his lack of power, I prefer to use him either in cash games or Arizona stacks. If looking for a one-off in this range for GPP’s, I would prefer Joey Gallo or Josh Reddick.
Updated forecast has several spots to watch
Tuesday’s weather forecast has been updated and there are several areas of concern. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET, where he’ll give further updates.
Top Bats Here
On FanDuel, if you’re using any pitcher besides Trevor Bauer, salary is virtually no issue, and I prefer to pick a couple positions and just spend up for the top hitters. At second base, Ozzie Albies is that stand out play against Dan Straily. You can play him on his own in cash games, you can full stack or mini stack him along with Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna, and get access to all kinds of run scoring upside here. Albies has power with a .229 ISO against right-handed pitching and couldn’t ask for a better lineup spot tonight.
Improved lineup against RHP
The Diamondbacks are the high run line out west (5.07) and third on the board overall against Bartolo Colon (13.7 K%, 4.67 SIERA, .366 xwOBA). Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are between a .350 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA. He’s allowed 23 HRs this season, 18 to RHBs. The only bat among the first six that players might have some reservation about is Steven Souza (58 wRC+, ,134 ISO, .259 xwOBA vs RHP last calendar year). Eduardo Escobar (137 wRC+, .307 ISO) has been the top bat against RHP by far over the last 365 days. Paul Goldschmidt (112 wRC+, .210 ISO), A.J. Pollock (105 wRC+, .213 ISO), and Daniel Descalso (110 wRC+, .181 ISO) all have significant upside in this spot and Jon Jay (96 wRC+, .104 ISO) is a cheaper bat ($2.6K on FD), who could score some runs.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Daniel Descalso, Bartolo Colon, Jon Jay Elite bats could go under-owned tonight
Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Kyle Gibson. He’s a different pitcher this season alone though (23.6 K%, 4.09 SIERA, .322 xwOBA). He has been above a 14 SwStr% in four straight starts and batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against him in 2018. Despite possibly the second most positive run environment in play tonight, the Cleveland offense had a moderate 4.65 implied run line. That’s still top third of the board though and worth exploring if you can get bats like Francisco Lindor (140 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (175 wRC+, .349 ISO) at 10% ownership or less. Michael Brantley (131 wRC+, .194 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (133 wRC+, .278 ISO) and Yonder Alonso (124 wRC+, .193 ISO) are all more moderately priced and probably worth a look as well at even lower ownership. Gibson is not necessarily the pitcher players want to pick on tonight, but you certainly want to look at elite Cleveland bats in a reasonable spot.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Kyle Gibson, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso Jonathan Schoop officially scratched Tuesday; Jace Peterson replaces
Schoop will be sent to the Milwaukee Brewers as part of a four-player deal, meaning he has officially been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Tuesday’s matchup with the New York Yankees due to the aforementioned trade. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jace Peterson, who will play second base and slot into Schoop’s vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Orioles lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Masahiro Tanaka on the road this evening.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Three batters above .200 ISO vs hard contact prone, fly ball pitcher
Dan Straily allows a lot of hard contact in the air (8.6% Barrels/BBE) and suffers a park downgrade in Atlanta tonight. The Braves are one of two teams hovering around five implied runs and each of the first three batters in their lineup are above a .200 ISO vs RHP. That’s Ronald Acuna (128 wRC+, .237 ISO), Ozzie Albies (110 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (135 wRC+, .202 ISO). No other batter in the lineup is above a 110 wRC+ or .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, though Kurt Suzuki (110 wRC+, .182 ISO) comes close and has some value behind the plate for $3.5K (DK) or $2.6K (FD). Straily has no split.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Dan Straily The Cheap-ish SP2
If you’re going cheaper at SP2 on DK/FDRFT, the popular choices look to be Zack Godley and Danny Duffy. It’s close here, but I’ll side with Godley at home against a high strikeout Rangers team without their DH. Godley has brought his strikeouts up to 25.6% over the past month and 22.9% for the season. He is still short of last seasons pace and the walks remain too high, but his big 59.5% GB rate to lefties should help against the Rangers left-handed power. This is a fair salary for a decent pitcher in a decent matchup.
Three high value targets against HR and SB prone lefty
Steven Matz has been pitching reasonably well lately and has had some success against the Nationals this season, but did allow two HRs in his most recent outing against them and has been quite homer prone this year. He’s allowed 17 of them this year, 15 to RHBs. There are three high value targets in the Washington lineup. Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Ryan Zimmerman (167 wRC+, .273 ISO) for power and Trea Turner (123 wRC+, .138 ISO) for speed against a tandem that can be run against liberally. Juan Soto has a 203 wRC+ and .315 ISO vs LHP, but with an xwOBA 99 points lower than actual, while LHBs have a 64.2 GB% against Matz since last season. None of the three RHBs are above $4.5K on DraftKings or $4K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Steven Matz, Juan Soto, Trea Turner Highest rate of Barrels/BBE (11.4%) allowed on the board
No pitcher on the board exceeds or even comes close to meeting Drew Pomeranz’s 11.4% Barrels/BBE this year and only one pitcher slightly beats his 89.8 mph aEV. While his curveball usage generally gives him a reverse split, RHBs have a .411 wOBA with all nine of his HRs surrendered this year. The Phillies have just two batters in the lineup above both a 60 wRC+ and .133 ISO vs LHP this year and a modest 4.58 implied run line considering the most positive run environment on the board. Rhys Hoskins (132 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Carlos Santana (124 wRC+, .204 ISO) should be considered high quality assets tonight with Cesar Hernandez (120 wRC+, .113 ISO) and Asdrubal Cabrera (122 wRC+, .133 ISO) playable middle infield options with less power.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez, Drew Pomeranz Top bat in top lineup sits against pitcher with large platoon splits, offering cheaper exposure to top half
The Red Sox have the second highest run line tonight at 5.43 against Jake Arrieta with only one other team well above five. One of their key pieces is off the board (Mookie Betts) against a pitcher with significant platoon splits (LHBs .347 wOBA, 44.4 GB% since last season, RHBs .270 wOBA, 51.9 GB%). The optimistic way of looking at this is cheaper exposure to the top of this lineup in Blake Swihart (92 wRC+, .104 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the second spot with Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (120 wRC+, .246 ISO) sandwiching him. J.D. Martinez (181 wRC+, .382 ISO) is probably the only RH bat you think about here. His 165 wRC+ and 47.5 Hard% over the last week both lead the lineup by a wide margin. At whatever park he has called home since the beginning of last season, he has 205 wRC+ and .434 ISO. His 12.6% Barrels/PA is easily best in the majors this year.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Jake Arrieta Sneaky Atlanta Stack
Dan Straily is the perfect type of pitcher to stack against. He has a below-average strikeout rate, he gives up a lot of walks, and his hard contact rate is 11% higher than his ground ball rate. In other words, teams put the ball in play often and tend to hit him hard. On the season, he has allowed a .365+ xwOBA and a 42%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. A full Braves’ stack is certainly viable in tournaments. Each of the first six batters in their projected lineup has a hard contact rate of at least 36% against right-handed pitching this season. If you are a fan of small BvP samples, Ozzie Albies has two home runs and two stolen bases in only ten career at-bats against Straily.
Sorry Bartolo, it's Nothing Personal
The Diamondbacks are hands-down my favorite stack of the slate. They are squaring off against a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 42% hard contact rate this season. Bartolo Colon has given up a .365+ xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate and he constantly peppers the strike zone with fastballs in the mid to upper 80s. This is a dream matchup for Arizona. You can stack this lineup in a number of ways, but personally I like the two-through-five batters the most. Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, and Eduardo Escobar all boast a .350+ xwOBA and a .220+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.