DFS Alerts
Start of Saturday's OAK-COL game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies on Saturday night will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers at Coors Field aren’t typically heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall appeal, and as Kevin Roth detailed in his updated forecast, any storms should clear east and enable the teams to play through following this initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: Jake Shapiro via Twitter
In search of a third-straight double-digit strikeout performance, Justin Verlander faces off with a Rangers lineup that has a 24.8% K% versus RHP
Following a brief hiccup in his first start after the All-Star break, Justin Verlander bounced back in a huge way his last time out against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing zero earned runs in six innings of work en route to striking out eleven batters. In addition to being one of the most outstanding starting pitchers in all of baseball this season, Verlander also draws a beneficial matchup, arguably the one with the highest upside on the entire slate against the Texas Rangers on Saturday evening. The Rangers are a free-swinging lineup and currently own the third-highest strikeout rate in the Majors versus right-handed pitching, and that is reflected in Verlander and the Houston Astros being massive -295 favorites against a team that has a 2.9 implied total and also ranks 21st in wOBA versus right-handed pitching on the year. Verlander presently owns some gaudy surface and advanced metrics while in the upper echelon with a 2.19 ERA that has been no fluke, as it is backed up by a 2.84 SIERA, 33.0% strikeout rate, 13.6% swinging strike percentage, and 4.7% walk rate. Not only has Verlander improved his strikeout ability as a member of the Astros rotation, but he’s also brought his hard contact rate back down near his 27.3% career average (28.7% Hard%), something that had been a bit of a hindrance to him during the 2017 regular season. While Verlander has sacrificed ground balls for strikeouts and flyballs thus far in the 2018 campaign (53.9% FB%), enough of the season has elapsed to this point that the fly balls really can’t be considered a red flag for possible negative regression given Verlander’s overall success and conscientious effort in changing his approach on the mound. With the perfect storm of skillset and high-ceiling matchup coming together for Verlander tonight, he becomes the clear top choice over Jacob deGrom on paper, so feel free to fire him up in all formats on the daily fantasy slates across the industry this evening.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Mike Clevinger (illness) is currently warming up, appears to be on track to make scheduled start Saturday
Reports surfaced earlier in the afternoon that Mike Clevinger has been battling an illness since late Friday night and may not be physically able to make his scheduled start against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday evening. However, Clevinger’s symptoms appear to have subsided to at least some extent, as he is currently heading out to the bullpen to begin warming up for tonight’s contest, which is a nearly definitive sign that he will at least give it a go to begin the game. In the event Clevinger is ineffective or unable to pitch deep into the game, the Cleveland Indians already announced that they recalled Adam Plutko from their AAA affiliate to provide some relief out of the bullpen as an innings eater.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes via Twitter Buying the Talent Despite Recent Struggles
I don’t love Kevin Gausman but the cheap pitchers today are BADDD. I just wanted to get that out of the way but I do like buying on Gausman in this matchup against the Rays. Sure it’s a ballpark upgrade for the Rays but they do strikeout 22.9% of the time with this lineup and are still a young offense trying to figure things out. Gausman has a 3.92 xFIP, 19.6 K% and 5.9 BB%. I wish the K% was higher but at his price he doesn’t have to do much and I think we can get away with him. He could be the top scoring pitcher $6200 and below and I think he is worth giving a look as a SP2 on this specific slate.
Low Owned Cheap Pitcher Coming Off Great Rehab Starts
If you want to go this cheap, I love taking a shot on Fried here. Mr Tuttle told me on the premium pod that Fried has been crushing in the minors and with pitching being so ugly I think he could make an interesting low owned tournament play. I don’t like targeting the Dodgers but Fried pitched two scoreless starts in a row in his last two minor league starts. In his last start he threw 61 of 86 pitches for strikes and had 10 Ks in 6 2/3 innings pitched. While on his rehab assignment he had 16 K’s in 10 innings pitched! Fried throws his filthy curve ball 28% of the time and looking at PIQ the Dodgers struggle to hit that pitch. No one is going to play a pitcher against the Dodgers with a 4.71 total but I think this is the right slate to take a shot on Fried.
Not The Sexiest Play But Helps Get Arenado
Now hear me out no one wants to play Miguel Sano or admit that they are playing him especially against Rick Porcello. But if he gets a good lineup spot I think we could take a shot on him for some cheap power. On DraftKings at $3500 I don’t love it but on FanDuel at $2000 it really helps you get in a big bat like Arenado and I am a sucker for cheap power. Since he went to the minors he has a .398 wOBA and a 154 wRC+. His numbers have normalized and he should be coming back ready to fight for his job. We used to see him priced at $4000 only a year ago, let’s not give up quite yet and trust his career numbers and take a shot at only $2000.
Great Value In Great Matchup
Granderson is similar to Reddick another great value in a great matchup. Jurado comes into this game with a 6.52 xFIP, 9.1 K% and a 9.1 BB%. Sure the sample is small but he has never been a great pitcher and is running into a buzz saw tonight and that’s the Houston Astros. This is a great way to get exposure to a run total over 5 at a cheap price and when you are trying to jam in Verlander or Degrom that makes a ton of sense.
Great Value In Great Matchup
Granderson is a top value play for me and someone that you want to get into your cash games. He draws a matchup against Lucas Giolito who has a 5.57 xFIP, 5.70 SIERA. That is bad and although he is a young guy that should figure it out tonight is probably not the night. Granderson is also our fourth rated PlateIQ play of the day and is popping on all the projection models. He is one of the top value plays for me and a great way to get exposure to a total over 5 runs.
A SP With a High Floor
If you are looking to spend up on bats and can’t afford the Verlanders or DeGroms of the world, Rick Porcello offers a nice combination of savings and safety on tonight’s slate. Porcello is the second-largest favorite (next to only Verlander), and faces a Twins team that just traded one of their more dangerous bats in Eduardo Escobar. Porcello’s combination of excellent control (only a 5.9% BB rate) and solid 45% ground ball rate make him a high-floor option in most match ups. Particularly at his 8.4K price point on DraftKings, Porcello offers safety and upside, as well as the ability to work in high-priced bats.
A Fine Mid-Range Arm
I am generally not a huge fan of Porcello, but he has to be on the radar tonight. The Twins have been much stronger against RHP than LHP this year, but their offense does take a sizable hit with Eduardo Escobar off to Arizona. This adds appeal to the matchup, as inconsistent Miguel Sano will take Escobar’s place. (As an aside, I will say that you can take a chance on Sano as a value play for his bare minimum $2,000 price tag on FanDuel). As for Porcello, we know that he won’t beat himself with walks and will pitch to contact. His 22.5% strikeout rate this year is his career best mark, and he has pitched to a sub-4.00 SIERA this year. The price tag is reasonable, and the matchup is better than it looked a few days ago, so I’ll happily grab some Porcello shares in all formats tonight.
The Top Pitching Choice
It’s very close at the top between Verlander and deGrom tonight, but I’ll give the ever so slight edge to the Houston ace. Verlander has access to more upside against a Texas squad that has a lot of free swingers and the third highest team strikeout rate against RHP this season. deGrom, on the other hand, has to face off against a Pirates team that has one of the lowest team strikeout rates and has also been on an absolute tear of late. Both pitchers have great numbers across the board this year, with very similar figures overall, so the matchup dictates Verlander as the core play for cash games.
This Stock is Rapidly Rising
You never know what you are going to get with Lucas Giolito. Sometimes he shows flashes of the promise that he had when he first broke into the major leagues, and sometimes he looks like an absolute gas can. That’s going to happen sometimes with his low strikeouts and high walks, and there is always merit to a GPP stack against him. When he’s bad, he’s really, really bad. Though he’s been better of late, he is still sporting a 68/64 K/BB ratio this season, and that’s simply not going to get the job done at this level. My favorite target from this team is Lourdes Gurriel, who seems to be growing into his role as the new #2 hitter. He is hitting .410 with a .468 wOBA this month, and he is fresh off a two home run game on Friday. Buy in while the price tag is still affordable, because it’s about to rise.
Houston, Let's Get it Rolling Again!
Before getting the call-up to the big leagues, Ariel Jurado logged a meager 14% strikeout rate at the Double-A level, and he completely skipped Triple-A ball. That doesn’t bode well for a pitcher who has to face a dangerous Houston offense. He struggled in his first major league start, and I wouldn’t expect anything different here. Jurado might be able to get by to some degree with his low walks and reasonable ground ball skill set, but the jump from AA to the majors (let alone facing Houston) is a mammoth climb. Houston might go over-looked to some degree tonight because they have been scuffling a bit at the plate, but I can’t ignore the value here. Both Yulieski Gurriel and Josh Reddick will be hitting in the middle of the order against an attackable pitcher that won’t strike them out, and they carry reasonable DFS price tags. Even though it’s been a relatively down year for both, this is a great spot for a bounce-back.
Fire Him Up at Coors Against a LHP
As always, your offensive builds have to start with this guy in a spot like this. Nolan Arenado has ridiculous home splits against lefties, with a career .490 wOBA and .379 ISO at Coors Field against southpaws. Those are ridiculous splits with that large of a sample size. He’s the top option at Coors against a lefty, without question, especially when said lefty is Brett Anderson, who is on the down side of his career. Expect some runs in Denver tonight, and Arenado should be heavily involved in that.
A Strong Leadoff Value
Targeting batters against Lucas Giolito has served us well so far this season, and today shapes up to be no different as the Blue Jays offer both value and upside. The lefties stand out in particular, as Giolito has allowed a .423 wOBA to hitters from the left side. Curtis Granderson’s .340 wOBA and .202 ISO against RHP pairs with Giolito’s weakness to create a dream matchup for the Blue Jays’ leadoff batter. At just 3.9K on DraftKings and 2.9K on Fanduel, it makes sense to utilize Granderson as a one-off or as the start of your Blue Jays stacks.