DFS Alerts
Swing and Miss
Luis Castillo has probably been chalk more often than he has deserved this season but I’m still fully on board with him as Sunday’s SP2, despite his relative lack of success when garnering ownership. Castillo is simply too cheap for his skill-set and his 5.30 ERA is not indicative of the pitcher he truly is. The Reds righty owns a SIERA that’s right around league average for a starter (4.14) but has shown great swing and miss stuff (14 K%) despite owning a near league average 21.6% strikeout rate. Castillo’s stuff should play up in a matchup against a Phillies team that strikes out the second most in the league versus RHP (25.7%).
The Bad Luck Will Turn Around
Urena remains tough on same-handed hitters, so the RHBs for Washington are simply out of the equation for me today. The good news for them is that they can send a bunch of lefties to the plate, and Urena has allowed a 45% hard contact rate and .328 wOBA to lefties this year. Bryce Harper is one of my favorite one-off plays of the day, especially on FanDuel where the Coors Field game is not in play. His numbers this year scream bad luck, as he has the highest hard contact rate of his career despite a .211 batting average against RHP. He’s going to hit a red-hot stretch at some point, and this might be a great spot to take a shot on one getting started.
More Opportunities, Same Price
The absence of Aaron Judge from the Yankees lineup has resulted in Bird getting a better spot in the order which should lead to some more ABs and RBI opportunities in the long run. The Yankees enter Sunday’s slate with the highest non-Coors impled run total and you’ll want to grab exposure to this offense where you can. Bird allows you to do that without breaking your bank and he provides you with some real nice power upside (career .247 ISO vs RHP).
Same Production For Less
This almost feels like a bit of a hot take but I’m really coming around to throwing Happ as my SP1 in cash games. There are enough concerns surrounding Corey Kluber that I’m not too comfortable paying his steep price tag for the same kind of output I can get out of Happ for ~ $3K less. The past couple of years the Royals have been known as a “pesky” offense that doesn’t strikeout but that hasn’t been true this season as they own the seventh highest strikeout rate against LHP (23.4 K%) to go along with the ninth worst wRC+ (86).
Grabbing Value in a Decent Lineup Spot
This is about the worst matchup that Zach Eflin could draw, and I like the Reds as a contrarian GPP stack this afternoon. Eflin has always struggled more against lefties, and it shows throughout his profile. His ground ball rate drops from 42% against RHBs to just 29% against LHBs, and he has allowed a much higher wOBA to lefties for the year. His only method of getting by against them is by limiting hard contact, which he does do reasonably well. However, the Reds have a high volume of LHBs, and the park is good for offense. Votto and Gennett are elite targets, and you might see five or six lefties in this lineup today. If you need value, give Mason Williams a look. He clubbed the winning home run on Friday and seems poised to grab the #5 or #6 spot in the lineup against RHP moving forward. He’s a fine low cost selection on this slate.
On a Roll and Ready For Another Great Matchup
We need to wake up Coors Field, and we might need to wake up the Astros, too. They are on the verge of getting swept by the Rangers at home and have now scored three or fewer runs in three straight games. Given the talent on this team, there’s no reason to expect that to continue. They have a fine matchup to correct that against Mike Minor today, and Minor has a very defined set of splits. He’s been solid against LHBs, but RHBs have posted a .347 wOBA and 42% hard contact rate against him for the year. Alex Bregman checks in as your top bat from this team, and he has been the only consistent hitter for the Astros of late. Through the month of May, he was hitting about .270 with just five home runs and 23 RBI. Over the last two months, he is hitting almost .300 with 17 home runs and 47 RBI. That’s called kicking it into gear in a big way.
Let's Get Coors Rolling
All right, Coors Field. What’s going on these days? Vegas still has confidence in this spot, as we once against have a game total of 12 runs in this one, with the Rockies owning an implied team total of 6.2 runs and the A’s owning an implied team total of 5.8 runs. With the Rockies playing at home against a mediocre RHP in Frankie Montas, Charlie Blackmon instantly enters the conversation as a top bat. He owns a .394 wOBA against RHP at home this season, with a .412 mark for his career in a large sample size. He’s my top cash game bat this afternoon. On the Oakland side, it’s hard to pass on Nick Martini with his newfound leadoff role and still cheap price tag.
Other tagged players: Nick Martini A Great Spot for This Value Arm
Mr. Bundy, we meet again. On a points per dollar basis, this isn’t even close for me — Bundy is the top pitcher on this slate. As I mentioned above, the ace pitchers that are on the mound today all have some question marks, and Bundy checks in with a perfectly reasonable price tag and a great matchup against the Rays. Despite his inconsistency from start to start, Bundy still owns a respectable 25% strikeout rate and 3.90 SIERA on the year, and I’ll gladly take him as a value arm given the nature of this slate. There is plenty to pay up for on the offensive side, and taking Bundy on the mound helps us get access to that. The Rays are not an imposing unit from a power perspective, and Bundy is as cheap as we have seen him in quite some time. Fire him up as a great option in all formats, and I don’t even mind taking him in single-pitcher formats, too.
The Price Tag is Just Too Cheap
The FanDuel price is still fairly high with Stripling, but my mouth is watering at that ridiculously cheap price tag on DraftKings ($8,500) and FantasyDraft ($16,100). What’s not to like about his profile? The 2.43 ERA? The 28% strikeout rate? The 3.5% walk rate that puts him as one of the best control pitchers in baseball? The sub-3.00 SIERA and xFIP? The 30% hard contact rate that beats league average? I’ll wait for a negative. The only thing I can think of is that his manager is the ever unpredictable Dave Roberts, but even that is a small quibble at these prices. Despite a matchup against a Braves offense that is capable of scoring runs, I have a hard time arguing against Stripling today. Fade him on FanDuel if you want, but that DK/FDRAFT price is just WAY too cheap.
If at first you don't succeed, try try again
The Astros really let me down yesterday.. I am going right back to the well today. Houston has 5 players with a .267 ISO or higher vs lefties, they are cheap and will be low owned this afternoon. Mike Minor and the Rangers bullpen are certainly nothing to shy away from. In fact, I think it’s one of if not the best matchups on the board. I wouldn’t stray far from these 6 but I do love the matchup for each as individuals as well as a stack. It may not feel great to click the button but I think you will need some Astros exposure to win a GPP this afternoon.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, J.D. Davis, Josh Reddick
Power vs. a Power Pitcher
Kipnis may have been one of the worst hitters in the league for the first few months of the season, but he’s really turned things around. Over the last two months, Kipnis owns a .340 wOBA and nearly .200 ISO. He draws a matchup against Zimmerman, who is a good pitcher in my opinion, but gives up a decent amount of bombs. Kipnis will likely be batting near the bottom of the order, but with is power upside and fairly low ownership, he grades out as a great GPP play at a tough 2b position.
A Cheap Multi Positional Player
Flores is one of the only decent bats in this Mets lineup and draws a decent matchup against Musgrove. On the year, Flores owns a .227 ISO and .364 wOBA vs. RHP and he draws a matchup against Musgrove who isn’tdoing anything at a great rate. Mustgrove strikes out, walks, and gives up hard contact at an average rate vs. righties. With Flores price tag at just 3.6k and with his 1st and 3rd positional eligibility, he makes a great one off in GPP’s and should come in at fairly low ownership.
A Good 1B Play at Too Low of a Price
Barrios is good, but he has been a bit susceptible to Lefties this year. On the year he’s given up a .165 ISO and 33% hard hit rate vs. lefties on the he. Moreland on the other hand has crushed righties this year. He owns a .239 ISO and .375 wOBA vs. RHP and is priced in the mid tier at just 3.7K. Add in that he’s playing in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the majors and it’s gonna be hot and humid and the ball has a good shot at flying out of the ballpark with Moreland.
A Low Owned GPP Play
Generally I don’t play pitchers vs. CLE, but with Zimmermans price tag, and high likely bare bones ownership, He makes for a great GPP play at his price. This year, Zimmerman has started pitching really well and owns a 23.1% K rate along with a low 3.35 xFIP. I’m not saying this is a safe play as CLE is a tough team, but you aren’t going to find many guys with his PT/$ upside on this slate that are going to come in at this low of ownership. Fade him if you’re risk adverse, but in big field tournaments, he may be the best play on the slate.
Best Play of the Slate
This is clear and simply the best play of the entire slate (although it may not be a safe one). Bundy has not been great lately, but he is an up and down pitcher who has quite possible the highest upside on the slate (and all this at a bare bones price tag). On the year, Bundy owns a 25% k rate and doesn’t really walk a whole lot of guys. The problem with his game is simply his sky high fly ball rate and high hard contact numbers which culminates in a lot of HR’s. A lot of this can be explained by the tough division he’s in and the tough ballpark he plays in, but he gets a matchup against the Rays that, outside of 2 or 3 batters, doesn’t hit for a whole lot of power and strike out at a high rate. Even tough Bundy is prone to blowups and may be chalky, he is absolutely worth taking the risk in this matchup.