DFS Alerts
Sunday's confirmed Tigers lineup has a 0.268 wOBA, 0.116 ISO, and 25.6% K% versus RHP this season
Following a brief two-start hiccup, Justin Verlander appears to be back on track in his last two outings, allowing just two earned runs over the course of 13 innings while striking out 16 hitters combined. In addition to being one of the most outstanding starting pitchers in all of baseball this season, Verlander also draws a beneficial matchup, arguably the best on the entire slate, with his former team, the Detroit Tigers on Sunday afternoon. The Tigers have been brutally bad over the last calendar month, and that is reflected in Verlander and the Houston Astros being massive -395 favorites against a team that has a 2.5 implied total and also ranks 29th in wOBA versus right-handed pitching on the year. Verlander presently owns some gaudy surface and advanced metrics while ranking second in the Majors with a 2.05 ERA that has been no fluke, as it is backed up by a 3.00 SIERA, 31.6% strikeout rate, 13.1% swinging strike percentage, and 4.7% walk rate. Not only has Verlander improved his strikeout ability as a member of the Astros rotation, but he’s also brought his hard contact rate back down near his 27.3% career average, something that had been a bit of a hindrance to him during the 2017 regular season. While Verlander has sacrificed ground balls for strikeouts and flyballs thus far in the 2018 campaign (55.6% FB%), enough of the season has elapsed to this point that the fly balls really can’t be considered a red flag for possible negative regression given Verlander’s overall success and conscientious effort in changing his approach on the mound. With the perfect storm of skillset and matchup coming together for Verlander today, feel free to fire him up in all formats on the daily fantasy slates across the industry this afternoon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ
Start of Sunday's WAS-NYM game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Washington Nationals and New York Mets on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Mets have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall appeal, but the delay should still be a positive sign for hitters with the Kevin Roth’s updated forecast looking promising following the initial precautionary weather stoppage.
As reported by: Tim Healey via Twitter Matt Duffy (ankle) scratched Sunday; Joseph Wendle replaces
Duffy has been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to an ankle injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Joseph Wendle, who will play second base and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Daniel Robertson all the way up to the two-hole to fill the void left behind by Duffy’s unavailability while shifting him over to third base defensively. However, the remainder of the Rays lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Fernando Romero on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Marc Topkin via Twitter Lucas v Lucas
Lucas Giolito is bad and he should feel bad. Giolito’s advanced metrics are actually pretty impressive the closer you look at them – he owns a slate high 6.02 SIERA, which is the highest SIERA of any starter in the league that is still a regular rotation piece, and a walk rate (12.9%) that matches his strikeout rate. Lucas Duda is dirt cheap across the industry and offers some nice power upside (.233) in a favorable matchup at hitter friendly Guaranteed Rate Field.
Cheap Upside
It hasn’t been pretty for Springer over the last month or so but it’s going to be tough to pass up his low price tag in a prime home matchup against the southpaw Francisco Liriano. Despite his recent poor stretch, Springer has still had a ton of success versus LHP this season (140 wRC+, .230 ISO) and his numbers are mostly in line with his career numbers against lefties (153 wRC+, .246 ISO). The Astros have a team total north of five runs and Springer is a way to get affordable exposure to a projected high scoring offense.
Top Option
Justin Verlander is Sunday’s top pitching option and it’s really not even close. Verlander will toe the rubber against his former team as the Tigers have far and away the lowest implied run total on the slate (2.5 and trending down). For as dominant as Verlander has been this year (3.00 SIERA, 31.6 K%, 13.1 SwStr%) the Tigers have been equally as bad (22 K%, 80 wRC+ vs RHP). On DraftKings, Verlander + De Los Santos are the clear best pitching duo for cash games and Verlander seems to be the clear choice on single starting pitching sites.
Much Needed Salary Relief
Mike Minor has been elite against left-handed bats this year, but Baltimore is a RH-heavy lineup, and you aren’t playing Chris Davis anyway. My favorite individual bat here is Tim Beckham, who is affordable and has the best profile against left-handed pitching. Beckham doesn’t have a large sample size this year, but he has a decent track record against lefties and has managed a .380 wOBA in the limited sample this year. That’s a good sign, and the most important part is that he offers salary relief that is invariably needed as we build lineups.
The Moose is Loose
Every time it looks like Giolito is showing glimpses of turning his season around, he goes right back to being the gas can that he has consistently been for much of the season. His walk and strikeout rates are identical at 12.9% this year, which is far too high on the walk front and far too low on the strikeout front. Those are almost bad enough to make Tyler Chatwood jealous. The Royals present a tough challenge for Giolito, as they don’t strike out a ton to begin with, so you are going to see balls in play here. The question is whether or not the weak Royals offense can do enough with those balls in play to be viable for DFS purposes. My favorite targets here are Mike Moustakas and Jorge Bonifacio. Moustakas has been the top bat for power upside on this team all season, and his .254 ISO against RHP leads the team by a decent margin, so he grabs core play status this afternoon.
The Positive Side of Variance is Coming Soon
I know it’s alarming if you look at his batting average this season, but Harper has had a ton of bad luck run his way. He owns a ridiculously low .214 BABIP against RHP this season despite a 43% hard contact rate. For perspective, his career BABIP against RHP is .312 with a 35% hard contact rate. So, this year, his BABIP against RHP is 98 points lower than his career average, even though his hard contact rate is up by 8%. That’s some awful luck. He gets a fine matchup today against Corey Oswalt, and his price is as cheap as it has been in quite some time. He is perhaps my favorite point per dollar bat on the entire slate. You can certainly fire up a Nationals stack if you want, but I love Harper as a cash game play and as a one-off GPP play.
Holy Value, Batman!
If you are looking for the top point per dollar pitcher on the board today, that distinction almost has to go to Enyel De Los Santos. He has very respectable numbers at the minor league level, a lot of potential, and he pitched well in his first major league start against the Mets. He draws another great matchup today against the weak-hitting Marlins… and De Los Santos is priced at $5,700 on FD and $4,000 on DK. That’s just too cheap. There is some strikeout upside here, as he posted above average strikeout rates in the minors. Throw the park factor, the matchup, and the mega cheap price tag, and there’s little risk and a lot of upside with this spot.
Easily the Top Pitching Choice
If you are just looking for the top overall arm on the slate this afternoon, it has to go to Justin Verlander. He’s one of just two clear-cut top pitchers today, and Verlander has a much better matchup than Trevor Bauer. As for Verlander, he is having another rock solid season with a 2.05 ERA, 3.00 SIERA, sub-5% walk rate, and 31.6% strikeout rate. He also gets to face his former team in the Tigers today, and Detroit is very weak against RHP. As such, they have an implied team total well below three runs today. He’s nearly a lock for a good majority of my lineups this afternoon with the Astros sitting as a whopping -375 favorite in Vegas.
Too Cheap
It seems weird to say but Conforto is the one guy that keeps finding himself into my early lineup builds on multiple sites. Conforto is still way too cheap across the industry and gets another strong matchup on Sunday against Jeremy Hellickson and the Phillies. While he’s made improvements this year, Jeremy Hellickson has struggled badly over the course of his career against LHB (.324 wOBA, 4.84 xFIP, 15.9 K%, 8.1 BB%). Conversely, Conforto has smashed RHP (132 wRC+, .234 ISO). Conforto has too good of a skill-set to be priced this low against a below average pitcher.
Hot Potato
De Los Santos will start Sunday’s game for the Phillies with Zach Eflin placed on the DL with a blister and it appears his jumping back and forth between the Majors and Minors threw DraftKings pricing algo out of whack. Enyel is the min price ($4,000) on DraftKings and is essentially an auto-play at that price in a favorable matchup against the Marlins. De Los Santos is in the cash game conversation as well on FanDuel but there’s merit to just paying up for Justin Verlander on the softer priced site.
Too Cheap To Pass On
Santos is only $4000 on DraftKings, I repeat he is only $4000!! He doesn’t have to do much in this matchup and gets to go up against a bad Marlins team. This is just a simple miss pricing that we need to jump on and take advantage of. Sure ownership could be high but this will allow you to get exposure to all the bats you want and that is very important this time of year. His numbers were nothing special in the minors but it’s a great pitchers ballpark, against a bad offense and too cheap of a price. I will make sure I am overweight on the field with Enyel De Lose Santos.
Pivot Off The Chalk
I get it everyone is playing Verlander against the Tigers and for good reason. There are some reasons to pivot off him though. The price is high on Verlander, Corbin is $2600 cheaper and he has an extreme pitchers ump where Verlander has an extreme hitters ump. Sure Verlander has the better matchup but the pivot off him based on ownership is interesting. Corbin also has been great this season. He has a 2.85 xFIP, 31.1 K% and a 48.1% ground ball rate. The matchup might be tough but I think taking a shot on Corbin in tournaments makes sense.