DFS Alerts
Cured by the Break
Abreu is someone that should benefit from the extended All-Star Break as he had a terrible stretch to end the first half of the season. That terrible stretch has led to a cheap price tag which can be exploited in a favorable matchup where Abreu will have the platoon advantage against Mariners lefty Wade LeBlanc. Abreu has monster career numbers against LHP (145 wRC+, .236 ISO) and while SafeCo plays as a pitcher’s park as a whole, it plays close to neutral for HRs, keeping Abreu’s power upside intact.
Underpriced SP2
Before I tell you how good of a play Danny Duffy is, just like everyone else already has, let me say this: fade the crap out of Duffy chalk in GPPs. Duffy has clearly made some changes since early on in the season, including a spike in velocity as his fastball averaged 96.1 mph two starts ago against the same Twins team he’ll face Friday night. Unsurprisingly an increase in velocity has resulted in much better strikeout numbers than he was seeing earlier this season. Despite posting 23+ DK pts (two games over 30) in five of his past seven starts Duffy is still somehow priced at only $6,100 on DK and makes for a strong, albeit chalky, SP2.
The YOLO GPP Stack
There’s nothing legitimately exciting about targeting hitters from the Giants, but I like their GPP appeal at what is guaranteed to be low ownership tonight. I simply refuse to believe that Edwin Jackson has found a magic potion at 34 years of age while pitching for his 56th MLB team, and the runs are going to come against him at some point. He has a meager ground ball rate and underwhelming strikeout ability, so don’t shy away from a stack of Giants power bats tonight. I like them a lot as a late night hammer in GPP formats, with Crawford, Posey, and Belt topping the upside list.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Brandon Belt
Find the Power
James Shields has been very respectable for the White Sox this season, and DFS players are starting to back off on stacking against him. When you combine that with the west coast start here, the Mariners might get over-looked quite a bit this evening. Cruz, Haniger, and Healy all own ISO marks north of .200 this season, and they offer the most power upside of the group. I probably won’t do a five-man full stack here, but this is a fine spot for a mini-stack or a GPP one-off play.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger The Top High-End Stack
If you are looking for the highest upside offense tonight, the Red Sox clearly provide that potential. They have several hitters that are capable of dominating against left-handed pitching, as Betts owns a .513 wOBA and Martinez owns a .393 wOBA against LHP, while both also have big time power potential. Pearce has a nice track record against lefties, as well. If you are saving on the mound, you can certainly use Boston at the dish.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Steve Pearce Bang For Your Buck
Forget simply being the best pt/$ option on the board, Ray may very well be the best SP option period. Ray’s biggest competition for SP1 Friday night is Trevor Bauer who projects very similarly but has to pitch in a hitter friendly AL park and is $4,800 (!!) more than Ray on DraftKings and $4,600 (!!) more than Ray on FanDuel. The 5.03 ERA Ray posted over an injury riddled first half of the season isn’t indicative of his true skill-set. His 3.48 SIERA and 34.1 K% are the best marks of his career and his 13.5 SwStr% is the third best of Friday’s probable starters behind only Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard.
Picking up the Pace Again
It was an abhorrent start to the season for Danny Duffy, but he has quietly rebounded in a big way since the first of June. Over his last eight starts, he has posted a solid 3.12 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 49 innings pitched. That includes a brilliant start against tonight’s opponent, the Twins, on a night where he pitched six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. The price tag has yet to catch up to his recent production, and he’s a great SP #2 choice on the multi-pitcher sites this evening.
The Unquestioned Top Dog on the Bump
Trevor Bauer is your top pitching option this evening, and not many people would debate with you that it’s not even particularly close. He was a force over the season’s first half, whipping up a 31% strikeout rate to go along with his ERA in the low twos. I will say that there are some signs of regression moving forward, as he allows a bit too much hard contact for a guy with a 5% HR/FB rate, which suggests he has been lucky this year. However, the upside is very real on a start-to-start basis, and Texas does offer some free swingers at the plate. Bauer is the top dog if you can fit him into your lineup.
Outfield of Values
The Cleveland outfield is loaded with value options tonight. On FanDuel, all of Brandon Guyer, Melky Cabrera and Rajai Davis are at bare minimum salary, while on DK/FDRFT, they are cheap enough to be playable in all formats. There is some pinch hit risk for Guyer and Davis, but it’s baked into the salary. I might lean Cabrera in cash games being a switch hitter, but in tournaments, I prefer the power of Guyer with his .219 ISO and 50% fly ball rate against left-handed pitching. He should get a strong lineup spot and see plenty of runners on base ahead of him.
A Weird Salary, Weird Like Low
This is an oddly low salary on DK/FDRFT for Seager against James Shields. While I don’t think Shields is a must-attack pitcher, he’s certainly below average and also backed by one of the league’s worst bullpens. Shields has spotty control against lefties, and if the pitches aren’t there, Seager can get on base and score, but if he gets a pitch to hit, the 47% fly balls, 39% hard hits and .199 ISO give him plenty of upside. This is a very useful salary on this slate.
Late Night Power
The White Sox James Shields has really not been as terrible as expected this season, but he is very susceptible to right-handed power with just 16.4% strikeouts, 44% fly balls and 36.5% hard hits allowed. The outfield duo of Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger are well suited to take advantage of Shields’ splits, with Cruz leading the way with below average strikeouts against righties and a .236 ISO and a home run every 13.8 AB since the start of 2017.
The Top Spot To Spend
The Indians are the standout offense on this slate, and an easy place to look to spend on your high end bats with Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion all with ISO’s above .215 and hard hit rates above 40%. Both Lindor and Ramirez add elite contact against against lefties to the mix, and Lindor gets my slight preference with his shortstop eligibility making him more of a stand out at his position. Martin Perez has a silly low 12.1% strikeout rate to right-handed bats since the start of last season with just average ground balls and 36.5% hard contact allowed, resulting in a .378 wOBA and .180 ISO against.
Saving On These Current Skills
Danny Duffy has not seen his salary raised to match his recent production on DK/FDRFT. Five of his last seven starts have come with zero or one run allowed, and he has at least seven strikeouts in all five of them. He is at home where his fly ball style is perfectly suited, and he is facing a Twins team that is one of the weaker teams in the league against left-handed pitching. Tonight’s projected lineup has only one player with an ISO above .165 against left-handed pitching and a combined .121 ISO and .288 wOBA. There is still some concern with Duffy’s terrible start to the season and still shaky control, but the risk is more than baked into the salary. I see him as playable in all formats at this price.
As Good As It Gets
Bauer continues to be one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the league. He has a huge ceiling with 118 strikeouts in his last 85 innings, and six of his last 10 starts resulting in double digit strikeouts. He has also shown an incredible floor, with over 20 DK and 40 FD points in 12 straight starts. The only risk here is the hot weather in Texas, but the Rangers give him some nice strikeout upside to offest that. He is expensive, but heads and shoulders above the crowd and worth spending for.
Alen Hanson scratched Sunday; Kelby Tomlinson replaces
Hanson has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Kelby Tomlinson, who will play second base and slot directly into Hanson’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Giants lineup will stay intact as they face off against left-hander Sean Manaea at home this afternoon.
As reported by: the San Francisco Giants via Twitter