DFS Alerts
Power Bat That Has Value
The Nationals are another one of my favorite offense on this slate. Bryce Harper has had his ups and downs but this is a great spot to buy his low price tag around the industry. Harper has a .270 ISO and a .502 CxWOBA this season and is one of the best plays on the slate. The Nationals have a ton of power bats in their lineup but Bryce Harper is one that I won’t be missing on.
Buy Low On Underpriced Player
Jose Abreu is way too cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings. He gets a great matchup against a Burch Smith and a bad KC bullpen. First base is loaded on this slate and I expect ownership to be spread out at the position. Not only do we get a discount on Abreu but we should get him lower owned as well. Abreu also has a top 5 PIQ rating and is a great way to get exposure to an offense that I love today.
Attacking The Worst Pitcher In The League
The Texas bats are one of my favorite stacks of the day because they are going against the worst pitcher in the league Chris Tillman. Tillman has a 6.63 xFIP, 9.5 K% and a 12.4 BB%. Choo is my favorite bat on Texas to target because he is a great value play on FanDuel and a great tournament pivot off coors at $5100 on DraftKings. Choo also has the second highest PlateIQ rating and has 26 positive trends in this matchup. Choo is one of my top plays on today’s slate.
A Cheap Leadoff Bat
Beckham doesn’t have a whole lot of AB’s against lefties this year, but if we go back to the beginning of 2017, we see that he has a .171 ISO, .336 wOBA, and .418 CXwOBA vs. LHP. He draws a matchup against minor who has not been fantastic against righties on the year (19.5% K%, 46.2% FB%, and 42.4% hard hit rate). The problem with Beckham normally is his high K rate which is aided greatly by Minors low K rate. When you have a leadoff hitter with power against a pitcher who struggles against righty power its generally a good spot to target when the hitter is cheap. Don’t worry about how bad BAL has been this year, focus on the individual matchups (which this is a good one).
Lefty Masher against a High Splits Pitcher
Valencia is a guy who I like to target often against a lefty. On the year, Valencia owns a .244 ISO and .371 wOBA vs. LHP and a tiny 13.3% K%. He draws a matchup vs. Minor how doesn’t really do anything well vs. righties. On the year he owns a 46.2% FB% and a 42.4% hard hit rate and doesn’t get a whole lot of K’s or soft contact. With Minor pitching in a hitters ballpark, a high FB and hard hit rate can cause some problems against Valencia.
Constantly Underpiced 1st baseman
I still don’t know why DK continues to underprice Bour, but I’m not complaining cause he’s never high enough owned vs. a righty. On the year, Bout owns a .245 ISO and .370 wOBA vs. RHP. He gets a matchup vs. De Los Santos who we don’t have a huge sample size of in the majors, but if we look at his minor league numbers he’s nothing fantastic. Add in that Santos will likely be chalky on this slate (rightfully so) and you have a correlation play against the field if Bour goes yard in this matchup. Don’t be afraid of the ballpark cause Bour is strong enough to hit the ball out of any of them.
This Guy's Pitched Too Well For This Price
So far this year, Musgrove has pitched too well to be priced under 7k. In his last 8 starts, Musgrove has 4 outings of more than 20 points.On the year he owns a decent 4.17 xFIP, 22.1% K%, and a small 6% BB%. He gets a matchup against a good Brewers lineup, but on the year they do own one of the highest K rates vs. RHP (25.2% in the projected lineup). although Musgrove has had few rough outings in the last 5 games, he does have a bunch of upside and with a pitchers ballpark the likelyhood of a blowup is less likely.
Someone Messed Up This Price
I don’t know what happened here, but clearly a mistake has been made. Santos is priced like a book someone dropped in the toilet at Barnes and Nobles (or Borders, can never remember which one of those is still around), and although we don’t know a lot about how he will fare in the majors, what we do know is more than enough to justify his price. In the minors this year, Santos put up a mediocre 22.7% K%, 8.1% BB%, and a 3.90 xFIP. So far in the majors he’s done much of the same. The real reason why this price is so far off is because he gets a matchup against one of the worst lineups in baseball and in one of the best ballparks for pitchers. The MIA projected lineup currently owns a .155 ISO and .334 wOBA on the year vs. RHP. The only reason to fade Santos today is if you don’t need the savings or don’t want the high ownership
DJ LeMahieu (back) scratched Saturday; Patrick Valaika now starting at 2B
LeMahieu has been scratched from the Colorado Rockies original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to low back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Patrick Valaika, who will play second base and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Ian Desmond all the way up to the two-hole and Charlie Blackmon to leadoff, while Carlos Gonzalez, Tom Murphy, and Gerardo Parra all move up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rockies order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Wade LeBlanc at Coors Field this evening.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders via Twitter
Start of Saturday's KCR-CHW game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the White Sox have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Reynaldo Lopez and Danny Duffy not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this game should play through without much concern following this initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: Max Gelman via Twitter
If You're Getting Sneaky
The majority of ownership tonight should fall on Coors Field as well as the Orioles-Rangers game in Baltimore. But the things missing from those games is a must-play first baseman. Enter the Cubs and Anthony Rizzo against Luis Perdomo and his 7.09 ERA and 5.44 SIERA. Even in past seasons when he was less of a jabroni, he was nothing special against left-handed batters and in a small-ish sample this year, he has a horrendous 14.3% K rate with 13% walks and 41% hard contact allowed. Rizzo is an elite contact bat with line drive ability who is going to have chances to score runs in bunches at the top of the Cubs lineup, as well as having plenty of power upside on his own.
Game #2
The focus will be on Coors Field tonight, but coming in a strong 2nd is the Rangers-Orioles matchup in Baltimore. Texas’ Martin Perez is back off the DL, bringing his dangerously low strikeouts against a fully right-handed Orioles team. There are enough ground balls and soft contact hitters that he could survive, but Manny Machado is the most likely candidate to make him pay for his lack of dominance. Machado has struck out just 6.5% of the time against lefties and has a 47% fly ball rate. With Perez having a 12% K rate against righties since last season, Machado is a near certainty to put balls in play in the air, where good things can happen.
Still Too Cheap
FanDuel just doesn’t want to raise the salary on Shin-Soo Choo, and he’s close to a must play in cash games at this salary and a strong tournament option on all sites. We don’t know yet what we’re getting out of Baltimore’s Yefry Ramirez, but the early returns suggest lefty power will be an issue, especially at home. Choo has a huge 49% hard hit rate and .249 ISO against righties this season all while maintaining good patience out of the leadoff spot.
Overlooked
The Rangers find themselves in a favorable spot on Saturday but may go overlooked with SEA/COL stealing all the attention. Yefry Ramirez has been fine over his first three Big League starts but projects as a well below average starter that will eventually struggle against professional hitters. Choo is my preferred Rangers OF target but Nomar Mazara’s price tag stands out on DraftKings where he’s only $4,100.
Priority at a Deep Position
Strategy for cash games on Saturday’s main slate is pretty straight forward: save at pitching, jam in as many Coors bats as possible, and sprinkle in TEX/BAL bats where necessary. Second base is actually one of the deeper positions of the night with LeMahieu, Gordon and Odor all in favorable spots. Of the bunch, Dee Gordon is my top priority, especially if Chris Iannetta finds himself behind the plate for the Rockies. Iannetta has been poor versus stolen bases throughout his career and that trend has carried over this year as he’s been second worse among catchers in terms of stolen bases runs saved above average (-2).