DFS Alerts
Four Dodger lefties in projected lineup exceed a 115 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs RHP last calendar year
The Dodgers are the west coast offense of interest tonight. At 4.96 implied runs, their the fourth highest team on the board and while Luis Perdomo generally keeps the ball on the ground, he’s done so less often against LHBs since last season (55.6 GB%) and struggles to limit hard contact, which has led to a .354 wOBA/.374 xwOBA for LHBs over that span. Each of the four LHBs in the projected lineup for the Dodgers are above a 115 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Max Muncy has scorched RHP for a 171 wRC+ and .342 ISO this season. The Dodger lineup has yet to be confirmed.
Other tagged players: Luis Perdomo
A quiet forecast for Monday night
Kevin’s evening forecast is up and it’s a quiet one on Monday night. Players can read the report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for updates.
Is it worth opposing tonight's high priced pitchers?
If you’re someone not buying into tonight’s high priced pitching, perhaps you’re wondering if there’s any value in opposing them. Considering Jose Berrios’s recent struggles and around a two mile per hour drop in velocity over his first two starts, players may be wondering if all is not right. In that case, both Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda exceed a 115 wRC+ and .240 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, while nobody else in the Kansas City lineup is above 100 and/or .161. Also Whit Merrifield (100 wRC+, .120) has a 240 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than $4K. Gerrit Cole has an ERA and estimators all above four over the last month. Dustin Fowler (101 wRC+, .164 ISO) is an affordable leadoff bat. Matt Olson (149 wRC+, .328 ISO) is one of the top bats in baseball against RHP. Both are likely to be very low owned. A huge reason for Mike Clevinger’s success this season is his improvement against LHBs (.286 wOBA), but that’s predicated on just a 1.9 HR/FB despite a league average 32.6 Hard%. Since last season, LHBs still have a .346 xwOBA against him. The Reds have three LHBs who hit RHP extremely well: Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .181 ISO), Scooter Gennett (125 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Jesse Winker (143 wRC+, .173 ISO) along with an affordable leadoff bat in Scott Schebler (103 wRC+, .234 ISO). Clevleand is one of the most positive run environments in play tonight.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakas, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker Free To Take A Shot
At minimum salary, there’s not much reason not to take a shot on top prospect Kyle Tucker. It’s going to take some time before we know how he’ll adjust to the majors, but this is a kid with power and speed for bare minimum salary hitting in a very good lineup. This kind of savings allows you to do a lot of other things with your lineup.
Frankie Montas misses few bats and has struggled against stronger competition
Frankie Montas has faced Cleveland and Houston (11 IP – 20 H – 10 R – 8 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 7 K – 56 BF), but otherwise, mostly the worst offenses in baseball (31.1 IP – 29 H – 10 ER – 1 HR – 9 BB – 21 K – 128 BF). He has just a 15.2 K% and 88.2 mph aEV that suggests he might struggle against tougher competition, as he has so far and while the rematch against the Astros takes place in the most negative run environment on the board (and perhaps in baseball), the run line is still set at 4.81, Vegas believing the home team will get the better of him again here. While he has about 100 points in his wOBA split with LHBs above .400 (both wOBA and xwOBA), batters from either side of the plate exceed a 40% hard hit rate against him. Josh Reddick (110 wRC+, .126 ISO) is in the cleanup spot and more affordable than the three bigger bats ahead of him, though George Springer (102 wRC+, .154 ISO) has been merely average against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Frankie Montas, George Springer Powerful left-handed bats against a HR prone pitcher with a large platoon split
Ivan Nova allowed five HRs to a powerful Dodger lineup in his last start. He has a giant platoon split (LHBs .360 wOBA, .388 xwOBA), though his HRs have been split nearly evenly since last season (LHBs 24 HRs, RHBs 22 HRs) and he faces another lineup with quite a bit of power tonight. Each of the first six batters the Nationals send to the plate tonight are above a 110 wRC+ with at least a .175 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Bryce Harper (135 wRC+, .311 ISO), Juan Soto (140 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Matt Adams (137 wRC+, .279 ISO) are the most dangerous bats against Nova, while Daniel Murphy (112 wRC+, .180 ISO) has yet to find his footing this season. The run line for the Nationals has been rising and is up to 4.84 in Pittburgh, a park that suppresses right-handed, but not left-handed power.
Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Matt Adams, Daniel Murphy, Ivan Nova Elite bats at top of the order could erupt against HR prone pitcher
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed nine HRs through six starts and travels to face one of the best home offenses in baseball in one of the most positive run environments on the board. He’s now allowed 25 HRs over his last 157 innings going back to 2016. Cleveland is one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight (5.45) and the top of this order crushes RHP: Francisco Liriano (138 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Micheal Brantley (131 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (158 wRC+, .301 ISO). While DeSclafani has no split this season (RHBs .347 wOBA, LHBs .340 wOBA), xwOBA brings RHBs down 49 points, but actually increases LHBs by another 27 points (.367). He could be in trouble tonight.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Anthony DeSclafani Washington rookie lacks experience at higher levels of minors, has been thrashed by LHBs so far
Jefry Rodriguez has faced 28 left-handed batters in the major leagues. He has struck out just threw of them with four walks and four extra-base hits (.399 wOBA, 52.4 Hard%, 38.1 GB%). Prior to his callup, he had thrown just five innigns above AA, but did have a 15.6 K-BB% with a 50.9 GB% in 13 starts there this year, his only action above A ball, where he’s never struck out more than 23% of the batters he’s faced. Though he’s already 24 years-old, this seems like a big jump and while the Pittsburgh lineup does not have a lot of thunder, they do have just a 19.7 K% vs RHP and a rising run line, up to 4.67 now. Colin Moran (113 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has really been struggling (-31 wRC+ last seven days), but could have some value, along with Corey Dickerson (96 wRC+, .170 ISO) in the leadoff spot tonight. Both cost less than $4K on DK and $2.5K or less on FD. The recently returned Francisco Cervelli has been the top bat in the order against RHP over the last calendar year (134 wRC+, .203 ISO).
Other tagged players: Colin Moran, Francisco Cervelli, Jefry Rodriguez Affordable and productive cleanup bat for the top projected offense on the board
The Red Sox are the top projected offense on the board at 5.76 runs and one of just two teams above five runs currently. They are at home against Mike Minor and have greatly improved their results against LHP (up to a team 97 wRC+ currently) in addition to adding Steve Pearce (119 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), who remains an affordable bat in the cleanup spot here, making it easier to pay up for Mookie Betts (184 wRC+, .288 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (165 wRC+, .328 ISO). Xander Bogaerts (110 wRC+, .144 ISO) may be a middle infielder worth paying up for as well. All four mentioned players exceed a 200 wRC+ over the last week. RHBs have a .336 wOBA with 12 HRs against Minor this season, in his return to a major league rotation. While he has the displeasure of pitching in Texas for more than half his starts this season, Fenway is certainly no vacation and the most positive run environment on the board.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Minor Top Bat of the Slate
There are two offenses that are head and shoulders above the rest of the pack tonight — the Indians and the Red Sox. Both are playing at home and both draw exploitable matchups. It’s early in the day, but I expect the Red Sox to garner more ownership in tournaments, so a pivot to the Indians may not be the worst idea. As mentioned above, Anthony DeSclafani has had issues with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .367 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate. Perhaps more importantly is his 36% ground ball rate against lefties. If you get the ball in the air and send it out to right field in this ballpark, good things tend to happen, especially when your lineup is as loaded as the Indians. I absolutely love Jose Ramirez in this spot, as he owns a massive .342 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Rays in a position to take advantage of weak bullpen and pitcher with extreme platoon split
The Rays have a moderate 4.45 implied run line, but are in a position to take advantage of a pitcher who struggles against RHBs (.361 wOBA since last season) and a terrible Detroit bullpen. The interesting bats are the middle of the order here: Daniel Robertson (124 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Wilson Ramos (119 wRC+, .165 ISO) and C.J. Cron (123 wRC+, .240 ISO), all above a 130 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Matt Duffy (81 wRC+, .086 ISO) may have some value ahead of them against a pitcher who often has issues with the strike zone. The environment in Tampa Bay is not very friendly towards RH power, but it’s not the worst and the cost isn’t high.
Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron, Matt Duffy, Francisco Liriano Dollar-for-Dollar Gem
Rodriguez is my favorite pitcher of the slate tonight when factoring in salaries on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While I do like him as a play in this spot, it says more about the lack of elite pitching options than anything else. There are enough question marks around Clayton Kershaw and Gerrit Cole that I can’t justify their price points. E-Rod is having a nice year for Boston, posting a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. We typically don’t like to target fly-ball pitchers in Fenway, but Rodriguez is great at limiting hard contact (27%). In nine home starts, he has only allowed three home runs this season. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Rangers, who are ranked 26th in road wOBA with a strikeout rate of 25% this season.
Surprising Name as my Ace of the Slate
It’s crazy to say this in a slate that features Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw, but Berrios is my favorite pitcher to pay up for this fine evening. He’s been solid all year, posting a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 6%. He has massive home/road splits (averaging 26 fantasy points per start at home compared to 13 per start on the road) and he doesn’t have question marks like the other two aces. The Royals aren’t an offense that is known for strikeouts, but their projected lineup has a 20% k-rate against right-handed pitching and their offense as a whole has been striking out in bunches over the last few weeks. And finally, the Royals average the third-fewest pitches per plate appearance, which can help the opposing starter keep his pitch count down.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Two bottom bullpens on a nine game slate
There are four teams in baseball whose bullpen exceeds a five FIP over the last 30 days, three of them with a K-BB less than 10%. Two of those three appear on this slate. The Royals have a five FIP exactly with a horrendous 1.7 K-BB%, but Danny Duffy is facing an offense that struggles against LHP, while he’s competed six innings in five straight starts. The Tigers have a 5.53 FIP and 8.6 K-BB% over the last month and have Francisco Liriano on the mound. This would seem the favorable spot on this board. Luis Perdomo (five starts) and Jefry Rodriguez (two starts) are the only two pitchers on the board averaging less than 5.1 innings per start. The Padres (3.44 FIP, 22.5 K-BB% last 30 days) have one of the better pens in baseball, while it’s been a bit of a weakness for the Nationals (4.53 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%). Chris Archer will be limited in his first start back from the DL. The Rays have a 3.64 FIP and 11.5 K-BB% over the last month, depending on what you consider their bullpen perhaps.
One of the better pitchers on the board over the last month costs around $7K
If high priced arms aren’t the answer to your pitching question tonight then who might be? How about Jose Urena, Danny Duffy and a power suppressing park for starters? Urena is right around average with a 20 K% and hasn’t walked more than two since that disaster on opening day. His ERA and estimators are all below three and a half over the last month with a .267 xwOBA over that span that’s best on the board for those with more than two starts. The Brewers are a good team with power (16 HR/FB on the road, 16.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but merely an average offense in a negative run environment and power suppressing park. They also have a 25.2 K% vs RHP. Duffy is even cheaper and has thrown at least six innings in five straight starts. In the three starts where he hasn’t faced Houston or Cleveland, he’s struck out 24 with a total of one run allowed. The Twins have an 85 wRC+, 24.1 K%, and 6.8 HR/FB vs LHP. Andrew Suarez’s 22.6 K% is a bit suspect with just a 7.6 SwStr% and the Cubs have a 21.9 K% with a split high 10.1 BB% vs LHP, but Suarez’s walk rate is below 5% while the the Cubs bring an offense without a lot of power (11.9 HR/FB on the road, 11.5 HR/FB vs LHP) to one of the most power suppressing environments in baseball. Suarez has a 3.43 SIERA that’s third best on the board. His opponent, Kyle Hendricks has just a 13.9 K% with a .390 xwOBA over the last month. He has allowed at least three runs in four straight and five of his last six with 16 HRs over his last 16 starts now. He maintains the lowest aEV (85.2 mph) on the board though against an offense with an 11.8 HR/FB at home, 15.7 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP and 54 wRC+ with a 6.0 HR/FB over the last week. If he can minimize the hard contact in this one, perhaps the park and a great defense can take care of the rest.
Other tagged players: Danny Duffy, Andrew Suarez, Kyle Hendricks