DFS Alerts

Power Stack

The Yankees will be relatively chalky for a 15-game slate but I can’t help myself when it comes to stacking against Andrew Cashner. Cashner has frustrated more often than not this season but the signs are still there as him being a pitcher you want to stack against (4.92 SIERA, 6.9 SwStr%, 13.9% HR/FB). Unfortunately the Yankees don’t offer you much speed in what’s a good stolen base matchup but they still project to hit the most HRs on the slate. Despite a poor season thus far, Greg Bird is a guy I like targeting as a one-off as he should see single digit ownership but gives you power upside and should see plenty of run producing opportunities.

Something So Cheap

With all these Core Plays today, I’m just trying to point out that there are salary savers all around that can help you fit an ace and whichever high end bats you choose. In order to fit things like Goldschmidt, Arenado, Betts, Trout, etc, a leadoff hitter with some upside against a low strikeout pitcher is an ideal fit. It’s been an awful season all around for Calhoun, but since coming off the DL, he has looked much better with a 41% hard hit rate and average 21.7% strikeouts. Mike Leake has an obscenely low 11.2% strikeout rate against left-handed batters, so we are very likely to get balls in play, and at this salary, there is very little risk.

Injury Risk

You know the risk associated with rostering Hill – he exited his last start early with neck stiffness and there’s always risk his recurring blister problems shorten his start. Even with that risk I’m having trouble passing on Hill who has a great matchup against a whiff heavy Padres offense (24.5 K%, 87 wRC+ vs LHP) in pitcher friendly PetCo. Pairing Hill with another mid-to-low priced pitcher allows you to stack your favorite offenses on a night where there’s expected to be a ton of scoring.

Risky In A Great Matchup

We don’t have a ton of value options on DraftKings tonight, so I’m willing to take a risk on a position that has a lot of drop off from the top options to the value plays. Hernandez is always a risk to get pulled if a righty comes into the game, but he’s been playing more even against righties. He has a .398 CXwOBA with a .226 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Lauer has really struggled with right-handed hitters this season. He has a .382 wOBA with a .185 ISO and a very high 41.1% hard-hit rate. He doesn’t generate a lot of groundballs and could have a quick night against a high-powered Dodgers offense.

Profiles Above Average In This Spot

If you played Rich Hill in his last start, you were probably like me and pretty frustrated that he slid into home head first and left the game at 73 pitches. In the other three starts since coming off the DL, he threw at least 89 pitches in all of those starts, and while I always worry about the pitch count, I think he’s in a good spot tonight. Hill is throwing his throwing his curveball 38.45% of the time this season, and he has a 18.97% whiff rate with a 53.66% ground ball rate.

The Padres are one of the worst offenses in baseball against curveballs this season, and Christian Villanueva (.186 wOBA .095 ISO 42% strikeout rate) is second worst in the league against curveballs according to the Dodgers broadcast last night. I don’t mind paying up for Bauer or Verlander, but I love the value in Rich Hill tonight and will likely use him as my main pitcher on DraftKings.

#NarrativeStreet

DO NOT PLAY HECTOR VELAZQUEZ! Heck, you probably shouldn’t even play this next guy I’m going to mention, but he sure makes for an intriguing GPP play. Velazquez will get the spot start for the Red Sox on Tuesday night but appears to be more of an “Opener” than traditional “Starter”. Velazquez threw an inning both on the 6th and 7th and hasn’t topped 52 pitches since April 14th. The most likely scenario here is that Velazquez throws 2-3 innings and then Jalen Beeks, who was just recalled by the Red Sox, throws 3-4 innings and is the pitcher of record. Four innings + the win isn’t an ideal scenario for a pitcher priced up at $7K on DK, like Velazquez, but Beeks is only $4,500 and a double-digit fantasy performance pays off his price tag. It’s not a risk I would take with a primary GPP lineup but about 10% exposure to Beeks on a multi-SP isn’t completely insane. Oh, plus it’s his birthday today! #NarrativeStreet

Let's See How It Works Out

I’m sure a lot of you haven’t heard of Enyel De Los Santos before today, and I’m right there with you. With a matchup against the Mets, I went into deep dive mode, and I really like what I found on this young pitcher. He has three good pitches, but his best pitch is his changeup. In 95.1 innings in AAA this season, he had a 11.8% swinging strike rate with a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 1.08 WHIP.

The projected starters for the Mets have struggled with changeups over the last few seasons, and hopefully the young pitcher throws a lot of them tonight. Seven of the projected starters have whiff rates over 17% against fastballs 94-96mph since the start of 2016, and that’s the range that De Los Santos averages. It’s always risky taking a pitcher in his debut, but everything I’ve read about this kid makes me like him, and he’s facing a weak offense.

Great Matchup For This Leadoff Hitter

It’s been a rough season for Kole Calhoun, but he’s an excellent value play if they hit him leadoff tonight. I don’t have a lot of interest if he’s down in the order, but at his price, he helps make everything else fit. Mike Leake has a .308 wOBA with a .137 ISO against left-handed hitters this season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. His average exit velocity is 92.2 against lefties and he have a 39.8% hard-hit rate with a very low 11.2% strikeout rate. Calhoun doesn’t have great numbers, but it’s hard not to like him against a pitch-to-contact guy like Leake.

Take Advantage On FanDuel

If you’re playing on FanDuel, it’s hard not to like Yonder Alonso. He’s extremely cheap and he draws a great matchup against Sal Romano, who has a .379 wOBA with a .215 ISO and a 41% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. On top of that, Alonso crushes the inside pitch, and Romano tends to work inside. He also uses his sinker on 60%+ of his pitches, and since 2016, Alonso has a .453 CXwOBA with a .230 ISO against sinkers. While the ISO is under .200 this season, the CXwOBA is .463 and he’s hitting 46.2% of his balls over 95 mph. Alonso is one of my favorite plays on FD, and I think he’s in play in all formats at this price.

All Too Cheap

These Cardinals salaries on FanDuel are just not even OK. Dylan Covey has been easily the worst pitcher in the league over the past month, is backed by a bad bullpen, and facing a good team in a hitters park. Jose Martinez for $2,600? He has just a 15% strikeout rate with 46% hard hits and a .376 wOBA against right-handed pitching. This is just a silly salary, play him and move on.

Power Hunting

I’m going to stick with cheaper options among the Core Plays tonight, as it should be no trouble to find some high end bats worth paying for to go along with an ace pitcher. Sticking in the $3,500 range on DK and $7k range on FDRFT, Logan Morrison gives us power upside against the fly balls and hard hits of Ian Kennedy. This is the second straight season Kennedy is allowing over 40% hard hits to left-handed batters along with his usual fly ball lean. Morrison has improved his plate skills this season, striking out just 19% against righties to go with 40% hard hits and 49% fly balls. There are enough good first baseman that I wouldn’t go all-in here, but this is a lot of upside for the salary.

Flying High On Tuesday Night

The White Sox Dylan Covey has completely fallen apart over the past month after his strong start to the season. He has a horrendous 5:13 K:BB ratio in his last four starts and has allowed 22 runs in just 15 innings. The Cardinals are a top team to target in all formats, and the outfield is a place to find some value bats on DK/FDRFT. Hopefully we’ll get Dexter Fowler in the lineup tonight with a DH slot added for the Cardinals. He has fallen out of favor with the team, but his slow start was simply due to a bizarrely low .196 BABIP. The rest of his skills are solid and he is owed positive regression at a bargain basement salary. Marcell Ozuna should see loads of baserunners to take advantage of his big 47% hard hit rate against righties. With Covey unable to find the strike zone, the Cardinals should have opportunities to score runs in bunches tonight.

All Too Cheap

The White Sox Dylan Covey has completely fallen apart over the past month after his strong start to the season. He has a horrendous 5:13 K:BB ratio in his last four starts and has allowed 22 runs in just 15 innings. The Cardinals bats are all underpriced on FanDuel, making for an easy stack. The top bat to focus on is Matt Carpenter, whose 50% hard hits and 49% fly balls offset the lone skill of Covey with his ground ball ability. At this salary, Carpenter is an easy play in all formats.

The Skills Are Back

Rich Hill has looked like his old self in his four starts since coming off the DL. He has 26 strikeouts and just four walks in 22 innings and gets a favorable matchup against the Padres. There is some right-handed power risk here, but Hill is on his third straight season of higher strikeouts against right-handed batters (32.4% in 2016, 32.2% in 2017), so that upside outweighs the power risk at this salary. He’s always at some risk of being pulled early, so it is reasonable to look for some GPP pivots, but this looks like the best mid-tier option tonight.

Pick Your Ace

There is a clear 2-man top tier tonight with Justin Verlander and Trevor Bauer. Both guys combine over 30% strikeouts with low walks and limited hard contact. The recent form of Bauer has been a little sharper, but we have a longer track record and more dependable control from Verlander. When factoring in matchups, Bauer faces a lower strikeout opponent with more patient hitters, while Verlander has only some power risk, but more high strikeout bats to face. I lean slightly towards Verlander here in cash games, but want heavy exposure to both aces in tournaments.