DFS Alerts

High priced pitching leaves a lot to be desired tonight

It’s not that there’s a shortage of high priced pitchers (four above $10K DK/$9K FD) on a nine game slate, but it’s just not very certain what players are paying for with the most expensive arms. Clayton Kershaw is in one of the best spots on the board in San Diego (Padres 16.7 K-BB% vs LHP), but threw just 74 pitches last time out and hasn’t thrown more since May 1st. Let’s be optimistic and give him 90 pitches tonight. Are we comfortable paying $12.9K on DraftKings? Perhaps, once you see the other high priced options. Gerrit Cole has the top strikeout rate on the board (34.7%) by nine points over Kershaw and nearly 10 points over the next highest pitcher (Berrios 25%). His 26.6 K% over the last month is still second best over that span and the only guy higher has a single digits SwStr% over that span. Both is ERA and estimators are above four over the last month. His .297 xwOBA is best on the board tonight, but his .367 xwOBA over the last 30 days is near the bottom. He still may be the top pitcher on the board tonight, but he’s $11.1K on FD and $2K more on DraftKings and the A’s are tough (120 wRC+ and 15.8 HR/FB on the road, 109 wRC+ vs RHP and 139 wRC+ over the last week with a nearly equally K% and HR/FB over that span). Jose Berrios should be a great run prevention option at the very least as a strong contact manager against the Royals (sub-80 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP, 7.7 HR/FB vs RHP, 23.4 K-BB% and 6.5 HR/FB last seven days), who have just a 19.4 K% vs RHP. However, he’s allowed five HRs and nine total runs to the Cubs and Brewers over his last two starts. Two quality offenses, but he walked (six) more than he struck out (five) and his velocity plummeted two miles per hour in those two starts. Mike Clevinger has increased his strikeout rate over the last month, but when you look at the game log, you see 21 strikeouts against the White Sox over two starts, followed by 9 total over his last two and now he’s an expensive pitcher facing a competent Cincinnati offense (11.4 K-BB%) adding a DH in a tough home park. He has pitched into the seventh in 10 of his 17 starts. Perhaps players should be paying up for bats rather than arms tonight.

Power Stack

One of my favorite things to do when the Dodgers face a weak righty is to list out their individual ISO’s versus RHP. So here we go:

Cody Bellinger: .293
Yasmani Grandal: .215
Joc Pederson: .246
Max Muncy: .219

That’s good. Now let’s look at Luis Perdomo’s career numbers versus LHB: .361 wOBA, 4.64 xFIP, 37.1 Hard%.

This is a good spot for all Dodger hitters but especially their lefty bats. I’m not worried about a park downgrade with this game taking place at PetCo and I’m hoping the West Coast start time combined with PetCo reduce ownership on one of the top stacks of the night.

Bottom Half

With the Yankees not being included on the main slate, the Red Sox only competition for highest run total of the night is Cleveland. Boston hitters will be high owned considering the plus matchup against Rangers lefty Mike Minor, so one way to differentiate your stack would be to focus on the bottom half of the Red Sox order. Focusing on the bottom half of the order allows you to squeeze in one stud + pitch Gerrit Cole at SP1. It’s not necessarily my preferred approach, but one that will allow you to access a more unique lineup.

Safe Is OK

On FanDuel, we have so many value bats that spending at pitcher is not too cumbersome on lineup building. I don’t love the lower strikeouts from Kershaw, and I don’t love that he is still likely to be on a limited pitch count. But for real life pitching, it still doesn’t get much better than this guy with his elite control and ability to limit hard contact. He is no longer the sure fire DFS ace, but against San Diego at this salary, he should give us a reasonable enough return. The points per dollar upside is muted until his pitch count is no longer an issue, but he’s still the safest pitcher on this slate if that’s what you’re looking for.

Game Theory

It’s not a particularly fun strategy to deploy, nor are the Rangers a particularly fun team to deploy the strategy with, but on a slate with limited pitching options it does make sense to attack projected high owned pitchers in GPPs. Eduardo Rodriguez projects to be especially high owned on multi-starting pitching sites as the Red Sox host the Rangers at Fenway.

Rodriguez is good (3.75 SIERA, 24.9 K%) but he’s not untouchable and righty Texas bats should see single digit ownership despite playing in a park favorable for right-handed power. This stack fails 8 out of 10 times but if it does hit you eliminate the 40% of the field that pitched Rodriguez along the way.

Underlying Talent

Hendricks has been #bad. The Cubs righty has only pitched six innings in one game in his last seven starts. The start prior to that poor stretch, Hendricks threw seven innings of one run ball (29.4 DK points) against…the San Francisco Giants. I don’t care at all about pitcher versus team stats but it is notable that the Giants offense just isn’t very good anymore – they have the league’s third worst wRC+ (77) over the last 30 days and have struck out significantly more this year (23.5 K% vs RHP) than in past years. I’m willing to bet on Hendricks underlying talent (career 3.84 SIERA) in this matchup to return positive value on his cheap price tag.

Caveat Emptor

A lack of starting pitching options with upside have us looking at Jose Berrios by default. The Twins righty has had a strong season (3.58 SIERA, 25 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) and has four games of double digit strikeouts this year. That resume combined with a favorable matchup against the Royals (79 wRC+ vs RHP) puts Berrios into the GPP conversation but buyer beware – Berrios has seen a big dip in velocity (about 2 mph) his last two starts.

Betting markets seem either oblivious or unswayed (good rule of thumb to live by: betting markets are never oblivious) by the dip in velo as Berrios and the Twins opened as -187 favorites and that number has grown to -200 at the time of this writing. I’m still on board with throwing Berrios in GPP simply due to the lack of strong alternative options but the dip in velo should be enough to sway you from rostering him in cash if you were considering it in the first place.

Arrrr You Looking For Savings?

With some obvious high end bats to spend on, we’ll need a few salary savers to make things work tonight. Pittsburgh is the place I’ll be starting with cheap salaries throughout this lineup. Corey Dickerson leading off and Colin Moran hitting 4th look like the places to start. Moran is just $3,100 on DK and $6,700 on FDRFT and gives you a middle of the order bat with an 81% contact rate against right-handed pitching. We still don’t know exactly what we’re getting from the Nationals Jefry Rodriguez, but in the limited sample size he has shown no strikeout ability whatsoever against lefties and sketchy control all around.

Site Specific Values

FanDuel is loaded with value options tonight. It should be no trouble to play a couple of your favorite high end bats. Among the values, Yonder Alonso stands out, hitting in the middle of a high upside Indians lineup against a pitcher in Anthony Desclafani who is getting shellacked by left-handed bats so far this season. If salary were no issue, I would lean towards Alonso’s teammate Edwin Encarnacion for power, but Alonso is plenty good in his own right with a 41% hard hit rate, .180 ISO and .341 wOBA with below average strikeouts against righties. He should see loads of RBI opportunities tonight at a low price tag.

High End Duos

There are two expensive pairs of bats to focus on tonight. First is Betts/Martinez in Boston, and next is Lindor/Ramirez in Cleveland. In cash games, if you have the salary, I would want one from each pair, while in tournaments, I would look to one side or the other.

Francisco Lindor gets the nod as the Core Play over Jose Ramirez based on his shortstop eligibility. Both Indians infielders have 18+ HR and 10+ SB against right-handed pitching with high hard hit rates and strong contact skills. The Reds bring in Anthony Desclafani who is allowing a .317 ISO to lefties with 41% hard hits allowed and a weak bullpen behind him.

He's Really Good

Part of the appeal in paying down at pitcher tonight is to be able to afford a couple of these high end bats in good matchups. The Boston outfield duo of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are strong plays if you can find the salary. Betts is close to a flawless hitter, with more walks than strikeouts against left-handed pitching and a .477 wOBA, .382 ISO and .438 OBP. He and Martinez are at home facing a left-handed pitcher in Mike Minor who allows fly balls and hard hits to right-handed batters. Play them both if you can, but the elite contact of Betts puts him first on my list.

Great Value On FanDuel

If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, it’s pretty tough not to play Kyle Tucker at $2,000. Tucker is the #1 prospect for the Houston Astros, and he’s in a great spot to get it going tonight. He has a .384 wOBA with a 129 wRC+ and a .214 ISO in AAA this season, while Montas has a .361 wOBA with a .213 ISO and a very low 13.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season.

With Montas’ low strikeout rate, I like the young hitter even more in this spot. It will be interesting to see where they hit Tucker in the order, but that doesn’t really matter to me at this crazy low FanDuel price.

Save Some Salary For Later

This is a very tricky pitching slate. The top guys have some question marks which makes them tough sells at their salaries. Eduardo Rodriguez has the best combination of skills, health and salary on this slate, making him a solid play on all sites in all formats.

Rodriguez is not without his question marks either, and I’m not by any means going 100% all-in here in tournaments; this is more of a mix and match slate for me. But the 24.9% K rate for Rodriguez is the fourth highest on the slate and easily the highest among the cheaper options. His 7.2% walk rate is respectable, and he is doing a great job limiting hard contact with a 26.9% hard hit rate that is the lowest of any pitcher on this slate. It’s not an ideal matchup, but most of the Rangers’ power is left-handed, so he can offset that with his 34.6% K rate to lefties.

Take Advantage On These Sites

Steven Duggar isn’t in the player pool on FanDuel, but he’s cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. He hit leadoff for the Giants on Sunday, and with Hernandez being banged up, I’d hope he hit leadoff again tonight. Duggar is the number three prospect for the Giants, and he was hitting .272 in AAA before being called up. He also had a .345 wOBA with a 104 wRC+ in AAA this season.

Duggar’s biggest downfall has been the strikeouts at every level, but the speed makes up for the strikeout downside. He grades out with above average speed, and his raw power grade is high as well. As for the matchup, Willson Contreras has allowed 28 stolen bases on 41 attempts this season. Plus, Hendricks has struggled with walks to lefties this season, and his strikeout rate is under 20%, with a .234 ISO to lefties.

This Pitcher Is In For A Short Night

Since the start of 2017, Perdomo has a .360 wOBA with a 34.8% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters. He has an above average groundball rate in that span, and a lot of that has to do with his sinker. Grandal has great numbers against faster pitches, and he continues to crush sinkers. Since the start of 2016, Grandal has a .457 wOBA with a .370 ISO and a 45.89% hard-hit rate against that pitch type. His average exit velocity is 92.64 and his average hit distance is 337.53. On FanDuel people generally don’t play catchers, and he has a great price tag.