DFS Alerts
Trouble with the Curve
Dollar for dollar, Hill is my favorite pitching play on the board tonight. There were reports that he changed his mechanics while working his way back from injury and since then, his curveball has been terrific. In his last three starts, he has a 3.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 4%. The Pirate have hit lefties well this season, but I’m not overly concerned. When Hill is locked in, he’s an incredibly tough pitcher to hit, especially in this ballpark.
Time for a Complete Game
Bauer continues to crush any opponent the MLB schedule puts in front of him. In 17 starts, he has a 3.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. Unlike Gerrit Cole, it doesn’t appear like he is going to slow down anytime soon. While the Royals don’t strikeout at a high rate, I typically don’t factor that in as much when it comes to elite pitchers. If anything, this is a solid matchup for Bauer, as the Royals average the third-fewest pitches per plate appearance against right-handed pitching.
Blue Jays host a rookie who was bombed in his first major league start backed by a terrible pen
Corey Oswalt was bombed in his first major league start in Miami (2.2 IP – 6 R – 2 HR), though did pitch well in his major league debut in relief earlier in the season (4.2 IP – 2 R – 4 K) in St Louis. He had a 14.8 K-BB% in AAA this season and a 14.4 K-BB% in AA last season. That suggests league average would probably be his upside, though the 2012 seventh round pick is not much of a prospect at all. In addition, he has a Mets’ bullpen with a FIP above six over the last 30 days sitting behind him. A 5.3 implied run line for the Blue Jays may be a bit conservative here. Curtis Granderson (126 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Teoscar Hernandez (134 wRC+, .278 ISO) are great options tonight in a lineup that does not feature a single batter below a .178 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Batting seventh, Randal Grichuk (119 wRC+, .288 ISO) has the top ISO. Justin Smoak (115 wRC+, .234 ISO) has been the hottest bat in the lineup (181 wRC+ last seven days).
Other tagged players: Teoscar Hernandez, Corey Oswalt, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak
Recent assaults on Dylan Covey likely to continue in Cincinnati
Dylan Covey looked like a changed pitcher through his first six major league starts this year. His last three starts, however, looked even worse than last season (11.1 IP – 18 R – 6 HR – 12 BB – 3 K – 35 BF). As such, the Reds have the second highest run line on the board tonight (5.58). Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .370 and .385 against him in his career. Basically, any of the first six in the order are very nice options tonight and potentially part of a great stack if Covey is going to continue walking and everyone and then surrendering long balls. Tucker Barnhart (85 wRC+, .125 ISO) is the only one of the six below a 107 wRC+ or .173 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and he’s a cheap catcher batting in the second spot. Scott Schebler (107 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .189 ISO) are top overall bats in this spot.
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Tucker Barnhart, Dylan Covey Daily Bullpen Alert: Great opportunity to attack two of the worst bullpens in baseball
The Mets’ bullpen blew another big lead last night and with a 6.28 FIP and 9.2 K-BB%, they are the worst bullpen in the majors over the last 30 days. Starting a rookie, who lasted 2.2 innings in his first major league start in Miami last week, there’s a decent chance they’ll be very active in tonight’s game in Toronto. The Royals are the only other team above a five FIP (5.02) on the board tonight. Their 3.8 K-BB% over that span is far worse than any other major league team. They are also starting a rookie, making his first major league start against the Indians. There are just two active bullpens with a FIP below three over the last month. They pitch in the two most positive run environments tonight. The Giants (2.79 FIP, 15.2 K-BB%) are at Coors. The Astros (2.14 FIP, 28.1 K-BB%) are in Texas, but so dominant players should still think twice about challenging them…if they want to attack Gerrit Cole in the first place.
Two recently returned from injury may be tonight's top pitching values
Marcus Stroman has allowed just two runs (one earned) in 12 innings since returning from the DL, striking out nine of 45 batters with a 71.4 GB% and 34.3 Hard%. In other words, vintage Stroman and much improved over the injured earlier season version that had previously appeared. For $6.5K on either site tonight, players get that league average strikeout upside with an elite ground ball rate against a marginal offense (Mets 97 wRC+, 21.4 K% vs RHP). Stroman is probably the top value on the board tonight. Rich Hill has the following line in three starts back from the DL: 17.2 IP – 5 ER – 2 HR – 3 BB – 21 K – 74 BF, having thrown at least 89 pitches in each start. Last time out, he threw a season high 110. He last threw 100 pitches in a start in August of last year. That may hurt him more than it helps him here, but he’s facing an average offense (98 wRC+, 21 K% vs LHP) in a great park. The Pirates also have a team 17.0 K-BB% over the last week and Hill costs less than $9K on either site ($7.6K on FanDuel). Miles Mikolas may be another pitcher of interest tonight. He’s not cheap ($8.2K FD/$9.5K DK) and has just a 17.5 K%, but is one of the top contact managers on the board (85.6 mph aEV, .291 xwOBA) and has completed six innings in 13 of 16 starts, missing one more time by a single out. The Diamondbacks have an 80 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP.
Other tagged players: Rich Hill, Miles Mikolas Which of three high priced, high strikeout arms is tonight's top pitcher?
Three pitchers in the $10K club on the main slate tonight and they are the top three pitchers on the board. Trevor Bauer is most expensive by at least $500 on either site. He has at least eight strikeouts in seven straight starts, having failed to record an out in the seventh in just one of those. He’s the only person on the board for the entire day with a strikeout rate above 30% over the last month (36.4%), over which he has a 2.38 SIERA, 1.09 FIP, and .225 xwOBA. The Royals could hamper his strikeout rate slightly (19.1 K% vs RHP), but it’s a great run prevention spot (79 wRC+, 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP) against a team with a board low 59 wRC+ over the last week. Gerrit Cole has a 27.6 K% with a .354 xwOBA over the last month, has gone six innings in four of his last five starts, but more just once, and has not topped eight strikeouts since early May. He would seem too expensive in Texas. While the Rangers have a 92 wRC+ and 25.3 K% vs RHP, they have a 15.1 HR/FB at home and a 147 wRC+ with a 7.8 K-BB% and 17.8 HR/FB over the last week. Patrick Corbin reaches $11K on DraftKings, but is $9.6K on FanDuel with no other pitcher above $8.2K on that site tonight. His 15.5 SwStr% (29.3 K%) over the last month is best on the board, despite exceeding seven strikeouts just once in that span (no fewer than five though). Over his last seven starts, he’s allowed one run or less four times, but five or more in each of the other three. His 2.85 SIERA is a single point behind Cole (2.84) for best on the board this season. The Cardinals have a split high 17.7 HR/FB vs LHP, but also just an 89 wRC+ and 23.4 K%. They have a team 68 wRC+ with a 24.7 K% and 8.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin Sneaky and Cheap
The Blue Jays are bound to go somewhat overlooked tonight with teams like the Rockies, Astros and Indians soaking up all the attention, but they are facing a young pitcher who has looked completely overmatched in his first two major league appearances. Corey Oswalt was a below average pitcher at Triple-A this season. There is some pinch hit risk with Granderson, but with just one lefty in the Mets bullpen, I’m not overly concerned about it. This is a nice salary for a leadoff hitter with a 40% hard hit rate, .228 ISO and .375 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Too Cheap In The Heat
On FanDuel, we have some nice salaries on high end offenses to get away from the chalky Coors Field game. George Springer is just $3,700 on FanDuel facing a strike throwing lefty who allows hard hits and fly balls to right-handed batters. Springer has a .250 ISO and .374 wOBA against lefties this season and hits for most of his power against fly ball pitchers. This is a great salary for a leadoff hitter on a top offense on another 90 degree night in Texas. On DK/FRDF, he’s more appropriately priced, but if you’re not spending up for an ace, he fits nicely with a double mid-tier SP lineup.
Did Somebody Say Fireworks?
I’m going to stick with Rockies righties as my Core Plays on DK/FDRFT tonight with the way the salaries line up. There is a lot of high end offense out there, and Colorado is not by any means a must stack, but all the other top bats are very expensive and tough to distinguish from one another. Getting balls in play at reasonable salaries in Coors Field is too good to pass up. Andrew Suarez gets by with his pitching style in San Francisco, but 50% hard hits to righties is not likely to end well in this altitude. Noel Cuevas is the least exciting option for Colorado at the bottom of the lineup, but this is too cheap a salary for a batter on this team, especially one who has shown elite contact skills with just 11.8% K against lefties so far this season.
There Will Be Fireworks
I’m going to stick with Rockies righties as my Core Plays on DK/FDRFT tonight with the way the salaries line up. There is a lot of high end offense out there, and Colorado is not by any means a must stack, but all the other top bats are very expensive and tough to distinguish from one another. Getting balls in play at reasonable salaries in Coors Field is too good to pass up. Andrew Suarez gets by with his pitching style in San Francisco, but 50% hard hits to righties is not likely to end well in this altitude. Desmond has a .313 ISO on 41% hard hits against lefties this season and should see a load of RBI opportunities, along with his dual position eligibility helping in lineup construction.
Late afternoon top overall bats with a couple of potential values
Lineups for the four late afternoon games have not yet been released, but utilizing RotoGrinders Projected Lineups, Eric Thames (138 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) could be one of the top late afternoon bats on the board and likely with low ownership considering the cost and opponent, but LHBs do have a .334 xwOBA against Jose Berrios since last season. Thames has a 179 wRC+ with three HRs over the last week. Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .309 ISO) is always a top bat, even if he costs $6K (DK) and Mike Leake has been tough on RHBs (.310 wOBA since last season). Leake is much more generous to LHBs (.322 wOBA, but .377 xwOBA) and Shohei Ohtani (187 wRC+, .310 ISO) returned to the lineup last night. While Luis Perdomo keeps the ball on the ground, LHBs have a .361 wOBA against him since last season (55.3 GB%). Jed Lowrie (132 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .331 ISO) look strong. Rhys Hoskins (143 wRC+, .290 ISO) is facing a rookie RHP (Yefry Ramirez), who has a 35 GB% at AAA this season. Eddie Rosario (159 wRC+, .304 ISO) faces the reverse split Chase Anderson (RHBs .276 wOBA, 36 GB%), but he’s a great hitter against a fly ball pitcher in a power friendly park. Christian Villaneuva (206 wRC+, .465 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Hunter Renfroe (166 wRC+, .353 ISO) will target Sean Manaea (RHBs .354 xwOBA, 38.7 Hard% since last year). Potential value plays, if leading off today, might be Brad Miller (104 wRC+, .175 ISO) for $3.5K or less on either site and a 152 wRC with a 73.3 Hard% over the last week and Kole Calhoun (80 wRC+, .149 ISO) who costs $3.3K or less against Leake.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Brad Miller, Christian Villanueva, Hunter Renfroe, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Rhys Hoskins Pricing makes late afternoon pitching choices very difficult
There are three pitchers reaching the $10K mark among the four late afternoon games today, led by Aaron Nola against the Orioles. He’s a few hundred behind Jose Berrios on FanDuel, but $13.1K on DraftKings ($1K more than anyone else pitching this afternoon) in this great matchup (Orioles 75 wRC+, 25.6 K% on the road, 83 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP). He may be the top overall arm on the board for the entire day, but DraftKings has made him virtually unaffordable. A 25.2 K% is nice, but there are pitchers higher. What he adds in contact management (50.9 GB%, 86 mph aEV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE) is what really makes him a top pitcher. His .268 xwOBA is best on the board for the entire day, even better at home since last season (.252). With the exception of the ground balls, Jose Berrios (40 GB%) has some very similar numbers (25.9 K%, 86 mph aEV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE), though his xwOBA (.298) is 30 points higher, they both have a SIERA within five points of 3.50 this year. The Brewers may have a great team record, but are below a 100 wRC+ with a 25% strikeout rate both at home and vs RHP. A slightly favorable run environment and very power friendly park somewhat neutralize the matchup. Sean Manaea (17.9 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .343 xwOBA) gets the Padres (70 wRC+, 20.2 K-BB% on the road, 88 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB% vs LHP). They do, however, have some power against southpaws (13.3 HR/FB) and RHBs have a .354 xwOBA with a 38.7 Hard% against Manaea since last season. He costs just $12.1K on DraftKings. Perhaps they’ll let players work out a payment plan. If the high priced pitchers are too expensive later this afternoon, what are your other options? Not many. Luis Perdomo had been banished to AAA in April, but has fared well there in 11 starts (15.3 K-BB%, 55.6 GB%. He may fare well for at the minimum price DraftKings, allowing players to pay up for one of the above pitchers if they wish, but the A’s have a 108 wRC+ and 25.5 Hard-Soft% against RHP this year. Garrett Richards is in Seattle (105 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP), but hasn’t pitched in the majors in three weeks, while his lone rehab start consisted of 17 batters in high A. He last exceeded 35 pitches in a major league game almost a month ago. Mike Leake costs $8.5K on FanDuel, but just $5.3K on DraftKings against the Angels (106 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP). He has just a 14.9 K% this season with an ERA and estimators all above four, but he’s completed at least six innings in eight straight starts, failing to record a seventh inning out just twice in that span. He’ll also be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup. Batters from that side have just a .310 wOBA and 50.5 GB% against him since last year.
Other tagged players: Jose Berrios, Sean Manaea, Luis Perdomo, Mike Leake, Garrett Richards GroundBallsIsGood
After Rich Hill, we should have one more somewhat chalky mid-range option tonight with Marcus Stroman also looking good in his return from the DL. Even in his early season struggles, his ground balls remained high, and in his two starts since his return, he is at a huge 71% ground ball rate, and he is at that same 70% mark for the season against righties and 60% to lefties. I would prefer to be able to pay up for an ace and a Hill, but if needing to go cheaper to fit some bats, this is where I would look.
Chalky Mid-Tier
I expect we’re going to see a ton of traffic on Rich Hill tonight at this salary, but it’s a slate without a lot of options in the mid-tier and he stands out. In his three starts off the DL, he has looked like his old self with a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 19 innings. The Pirates are not easy matchup for strikeouts, but Hill has been far more dominant against righties with a 26.4% K rate this season after a 32.2% mark in 2017. The 110 pitches last start were likely an outlier, but it’s still a good sign of health. He’s in play on all sites in all formats tonight.