DFS Alerts
Could be some upside to bats with the platoon advantage in San Francisco
Even at less than their best, same-handed batters may not be a successful proposition against either Madison Bumgarner or Tyson Ross. Select batters with the platoon advantage in either lineup could have some merit though. LHBs have a .392 wOBA with equal 44.2% ground ball and hard hit rates against Ross over the last month. He’s a pitcher with a history of platoon issues (LHBs .351 wOBA, .365 xwOBA since last season). San Francisco is far from an optimal park for LHBs, but Brandon Belt (162 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is so good that he should be considered in this spot. Bumgarner has faced 64 right-handed batters this season. He’s struck out just six and allowed six HRs (.381 wOBA). Obviously not this bad when everything’s right, the Padres do have a few bats who can mash southpaws, all for well below $4K on either site and in a park that’s a bit more fair for RHBs. Jose Pirela (121 wRC+, .180 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Hunter Renfroe (159 wRC+, .354 ISO) and Christian Villanueva (235 wRC+, .414 xwOBA, .541 ISO) are batters that should be considered. Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed.
Other tagged players: Tyson Ross, Madison Bumgarner, Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe, Christian Villanueva
Aaron Sanchez's success against RHBs is not supported by several underlying metrics
Aaron Sanchez has been improved over the last month, but that still means just a 8.8 K-BB%, 4.13 ERA, 4.75 SIERA, and .353 xwOBA that’s not all that impressive. An interesting thing about this time span is that RHBs have just a .258 wOBA against him, but that seems to be BABIP (.265) and HR/FB (6.3%) mediated as they have a 9.9 K-BB%, 40 GB% and 32 Hard% against him over that span. In fact, while RHBs have just a .319 wOBA against him since last year, xwOBA spikes that number to .373 with a 48.6 GB%. The lineup is not yet available for this game, but we can be relatively confident that Ian Kinsler (91 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mike Trout (191 wRC+, .326 ISO) and Justin Upton (122 wRC+, .226 ISO) will be a part of it. While the Angels have just a 4.1 implied run line tonight, that’s still good enough for the upper half of the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Aaron Sanchez Some rain potential on tonight's small six game slate
There are a few games with some rain potential tonight, but just one that seems risky right now. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest forecasts straight from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
A potential cheap SP2 will have to navigate some very difficult bats
Brent Suter has a 23.9 K%, 3.58 ERA, 3.75 SIERA and .304 xwOBA over the last 30 days. His 83.7 mph aEV and 26.7% 95+ mph EV are the best on the board for the season. Players paying up for Scherzer on DraftKings could certainly consider him in a secondary spot for just $6.5K with a few caveats. He threw a season high seven innings in his last start, but has not completed six in any other start this year. In fact, the season high 107 pitches six days ago could hurt him, having surpassed 90 only three other times this year. The most potent arm in the bullpen, Josh Hader, is well rested. The Cardinals have just a 96 wRC+ against LHP, but with some potency (18.8 HR/FB). Right-handed batters are within four points of a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. A stars and scrubs lineup against LHP, the Cardinals have four bats above a 140 wRC+ and .220 ISO facing southpaws over the last calendar year. Jose Martinez (206 wRC+, .325 ISO) and Jedd Gyorko (192 wRC+, .318 ISO) stand out even further than Tommy Pham (142 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Harrison Bader (160 wRC+, .269 ISO). Yadier Molina (92 wRC+, .247 ISO) has power and a 292 wRC+ over the last week. Exposure to either side of this matchup is justified.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames Carlos Martinez has walked more than a quarter of batters faced since returning from the DL
The Brewers have a 4.46 implied run line at home against the Cardinals that’s second best on the board tonight. That may seem a bit high against Carlos Martinez, but in three starts since returning from the DL, he’s allowed 10 runs in 12.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and just one HR, but 18 walks through just 68 batters. A full stack, prioritizing left-handed batters would be the best way to approach this, gaining exposure to all of the walks and potential runs. The Brewers will fly with just three right-handed batters among position players tonight, only Lorenzo Cain (101 wRC+, .094 ISO) in the top half of the lineup. Eric Thames (131 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Christian Yelich (136 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Travis Shaw (131 wRC+, .274 ISO) should be the most profitable bats here against pitcher who has allowed a .324 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) with a 35 Hard% and 12.5% walk rate to LHBs since the start of last season.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Carlos Martinez, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw Daily Bullpen Alert: San Francisco and Chicago (NL) have two of the top pens in the majors over the last month
Matt Harvey averages fewer innings per start than any pitcher on the board tonight at just over five per start. That he’s facing the team with the highest implied run line on the board by more than half a run is not going to help. The bullpen has a 4.3 FIP and 7.2 K-BB% over the last 30 days that’s nothing to fear either. In fact, only two bullpens in the majors are below that latter number. Brent Suter is second lowest at just under 5.1 innings per start, but that’s mostly by design. The Cardinals will then have to face what looks like a middling pen with a 3.8 FIP and 16.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days, but one with a strong back end. Josh Hader (25.5 K-BB%) has faced just four batters over the last week. A bullpen players will want to get to is in Pittsburgh (4.76 FIP and 12.7 K-BB% last 30 days) and players may get their wish with Chad Kuhl, who struggles with LHBs and is on the bottom half of the board with 5.2 innings per start. Also on the lower half with just under 5.2 innings per start is Aaron Sanchez. The Toronto bullpen has a 4.4 FIP and 12.6 K-BB% over the last month. Kevin Guasman could struggle in Washington and the Baltimore bullpen has struggled behind him (4.49 FIP, 7.1 K-BB% last 30 days). Gausman has averaged nearly six innings per start, but has failed to reach the sixth inning in two of his last six starts. Bullpens players may not want a piece of are San Francisco (2.75 FIP) and Chicago (3.09 FIP), the third and fourth best FIPs in baseball over the last 30 days, both with a K-BB between 14-15% over that span that’s much closer to average. The Giants just lost Hunter Strickland, but he’s been one of their worst pitchers over the last month anyway (-1.8 K-BB%). The Cubs just lost Brandon Morrow to the DL, but four pitchers in the pen exceed his 19.4 K-BB% over the last 30 days.
It might be difficult to guess which Baltimore bat has great numbers against Scherzer
One of the strangest BvP lines you’ll ever see comes out of Washington tonight. Max Scherzer completely dominates RHBs (.190 wOBA since last season with a 44.3 K%. However, Adam Jones has faced him 35 times in his career with four HRs and three doubles for a .495 wOBA. Since the Statcast era (2015), they’ve faced each other less often, but still as part of a yearly intra-state rivalry and Jones has a .394 xwOBA with an 88 mph aEV over that span. Do what these numbers what you will, but Jones does have a 114 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year along with a 194 wRC+ over the last week, numbers that seem worth mentioning.
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer Great middle of the lineup value play in a reverse platoon situation in Washington
Kevin Gausman has some strikeout upside (26.6 K%, 15.9 SwStr% last 30 days) and the Nationals have just a 5.38 implied run line, but that’s still best for third best on a six game slate and Guasman has allowed six HRs on just 24 fly balls over his last six starts. Gausman has a reverse split, more pronounced this year (.371 wOBA with 10 HRs for RHBs, LHBs .316 wOBA with four HRs) than last year (RHBs .344 wOBA with 17 HRs, LHBs .350 wOBA with 12 HRs). His xwOBA is within 10 points of these numbers on either side since last season. This makes Anthony Rendon (137 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) the top overall bat and top value in the lineup for less than $4K on either site. He has a 253 wRC+ and team leading 55.6 Hard% over the last week. Trea Turner (116 wRC+, .167 ISO) has some stolen base and run scoring potential directly in front or Rendon today. Bryce Harper (138 wRC+, .197 ISO) and Juan Soto (132 wRC+, .164 ISO) round out the top half of the lineup. Harper is one of three Nationals in tonight’s lineup (Pedro Severino, Mark Reynolds) who have a wRC+ worse than -40 over the last week though. Yes, that’s a negative number.
Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Pedro Severino, Mark Reynolds, Juan Soto Highest implied run line belongs to a powerful lineup against a pitcher with worst platoon issues on the board
The Cubs have a board leading 5.29 implied run line in Cincinnati tonight. No other team is even above 4.5 runs. They’ll look to tea off against Matt Harvey, against whom LHBs have a .413 wOBA, supported by a .417 xwOBA since last season. All four LHBs, along with Kris Bryant (145 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Javier Baez (110 wRC+, .232 ISO) in the top half of the lineup are solid plays tonight. Six of the eight batters in the lineup (including those two RHBs) are above a .200 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year and the one who isn’t, Jason Heyward (106 wRC+, .147 ISO), may be the top value in the lineup for less than $4K (less than $3K on FD) out of the second spot. Addison Russell (85 wRC+, .123 ISO) would seem out of place in the fifth spot tonight. His 215 wRC+ over the last week comes with a lineup low 26.7 Hard% over that span. Willson Contreras (128 wRC+, .207 ISO) is the only other batter below a 35% hard hit rate over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Jason Heyward, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Matt Harvey D'Backs may be able to take advantage of Chad Kuhl's platoon issues.
Chad Kuhl has significant issues with LHBs (.365 wOBA/xwOBA) with a 40.4 Hard% and 34.6 GB% since last season. The Diamondbacks have just a 4.06 implied run line against him in Pittsburgh tonight, as they generally struggle against RHP (80 wRC+, 25.3 K%), but have been improving recently and have three LHBs in the top half of the order who are all above average hitters against RHP. All three exceed a 160 wRC+ over the last week. Jon Jay (107 wRC+, .106 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has little power in the leadoff spot. David Peralta (121 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Daniel Descalso (120 wRC+, .201 ISO) have significantly more. Paul Goldschmidt (111 wRC+, .207 ISO) may still be the top overall bat in the lineup (244 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days).
Other tagged players: Daniel Descalso, Chad Kuhl, Jon Jay, Paul Goldschmidt Some high risk, but potentially under-priced mid-range pitching options
The best overall arms tonight are probably the most expensive ones, but there are a number of less expensive pitchers that players should pay attention to as well. Kevin Guasman has a 26.6 K% and 15.9 SwStr% over the last month. His 2.93 SIERA is half his 5.74 ERA over that span. That’s due to a .436 BABIP and 22.2 HR/FB over that span that’s not entirely unwarranted with a .362 xwOBA. He’s a high risk GPP play, but certainly not without upside as there’s going to be regression in those numbers and he has a price tag around $7K. Zack Godley has suddenly looked good in two straight starts against the Mets and Rockies (18 Ks, 51 BF), Pittsburgh could be a park upgrade, but the Pirates have just a 19.7 K% vs RHP. His cost is below $8K though. Tyson Ross still has strong season numbers (24 K%, 3.83 SIERA, .324 xwOBA). None of that has changed much over the last month (the SIERA has actually improved 20 points), but the results haven’t been as positive (21.2 IP – 11 ER – 3 HR – 6 BB – 18 K last four starts). The Giants have a 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP. Kyle Hendricks has similarly struggled over his last four starts (21 IP – 11 ER – 4 HR – 10 BB – 13 K), but has a long track record of contact suppression with a league average strikeout rate and costs $7.5K against the Reds. Madison Bumgarner is within $400 of $9K on either site. He has not struck out more than three batters in any of his three starts. He has a 7.0 K% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE, but his 84.3 mph aEV and 27.4% 95+ mph EV suggest the contact hasn’t been that bad. The Padres are better against LHP, but still have a 91 wRC+ and 17.4 K-BB% against them to go along with their 71 wRC+ and 21.5 K-BB% on the road. Something has to give here.
Other tagged players: Zack Godley, Madison Bumgarner, Kyle Hendricks, Tyson Ross Is Max Scherzer the only reasonable high priced option tonight?
There are two expensive pitchers on Friday’s six game main slate. Max Scherzer (39 K%, 17.7 SwStr%, 2.19 SIERA, 1.94 FIP, .248 xwOBA) needs no further justification, but if you need it, he’s facing the Orioles (74 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB%, 10.9 HR/FB on the road, 82 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP) without the DH. He probably can not be made expensive enough for this spot. Find a way for cash games, try to find a way to at least some exposure for GPPs, although keep an eye on Kevin’s forecast, which mentions the potential of some late rain in this one. Tyler Skaggs is $9K on Fanduel and $10.7K on DraftKings against the Blue Jays, who have an 89 wRC+ both on the road and vs LHP with very average peripherals (K%, BB%, HR/FB) in either instance. Skaggs was having issues going deep into games earlier in the season, but has three consecutive starts of more than 100 pitches with exactly seven innings and eight strikeouts in each of his last two starts with a total of one ER and two walks over that span. His 25.9 K% and .304 xwOBA are behind only Scherzer tonight. He’s certainly a reasonable GPP pivot for those wishing to save several thousand dollars.
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer A Truly Elite Stacking Option
The Cubs see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Cincinnati and draw one of the top matchups on the board. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high fly ball rate, Matt Harvey has allowed a .387 xwOBA to lefties and a .336 xwOBA to righties this season. I’m sure the Cubs will be popular, but this feels like a prime spot for a stack. Individually, you can make a case that each of the first six batters in this lineup are elite plays — Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, and Kyle Schwarber.
The Best Hitter in Baseball
The Angels are the preferred offense to target in this game, but the total is only set at 7.5 runs, so we don’t need to go overboard with our exposure. They draw a decent matchup against Aaron Sanchez, who has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. I always have interest in Mike Trout, since he’s the best hitter in baseball and never quite garners the ownership that he should in DFS. He currently owns a .473 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Path of Least Resistance at SP2
Last night was a real letdown when they postponed the game in Pittsburgh. Sometimes the weather turns and there’s nothing we can do about it. Kuhl was scheduled to pitch last night, but will take the mound tonight instead. He’s been more than serviceable this season, posting a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s pitching at home in a good ballpark and he’s a slight favorite against the Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.