DFS Alerts
Bargain Hunting at SP
Tonight’s slate is an ugly one for pitching, and has a number of high-priced bats in great spots. This means finding the right values at SP will be a key to success tonight, and as far as low-priced options go, Ivan Nova appears to be in a good spot pitching at home against Arizona. Nova isn’t a pitcher you get particularly excited about rostering, but he rarely gets blown up thanks to his great control and solid GB%. Nova owns the second-lowest BB% on the slate at only 4.6%, and gets to take on a strike out-prone Diamondbacks team that hits worse on the road than at home. For good measure, Nova also is currently projected to have a 10+mph wind blowing straight in from CF, helping him keep the ball in the yard. At only 6.2K on DraftKings and 7.4K on Fanduel, Nova is a safe value play that you can roster in order to fit the high-priced bats you are looking for.
Load Up Here
Whichever Rockies catcher gets the start between Chris Iannetta and Tom Murphy will become my top option on DK tonight. The Rockies are just so far ahead of the rest of the field that everyone in their lineup gets a huge boost tonight. I’m hoping we see Murphy behind the plate as he has shown big power in the minors, with 16 HR in 187 AB at Triple-A this season and Wei-Yin Chen being a lefty pitcher who loves to watch righties hit homers against him. He loves it.
Both Sides In Play
The Rockies are far and away the top offense tonight, but you can always consider both sides of any Coors Field game. While there is a lot to like in the underlying skills of Jon Gray, he has been more susecptible to lefties this year, and Bour looks underpriced for the environment on DK/FDRFT. He has a good eye at the plate with 17.1% walks to go along with average 22.5% strikeouts and his .266 ISO against righties is the highest mark on the team. If the Marlins have a big night, he is certain to be in the middle of the action, and even if they don’t , Bour is the guy most likely to damage on his own. He has hit a home run once every 14.8 AB since the start of 2017, and that’s with half his games being played in Miami.
Braves Lefties in a Great Spot
Another night, another opportunity to target Baltimore pitching. While the Rockies are the obvious spend-up spot for bats, if you are looking for a lesser owned stack for GPPs consider the Braves bats against Alex Cobb. Cobb has struggled to get anyone out this season but especially lefties, allowing a .405 wOBA and a full 2.1 HR/9 this season against LHH. This shapes up to be a dream match up for a Braves lineup with many strong left handed bats, hitting in the hitter-friendly confines of SunTrust Park. Freddie Freeman is the top option here but Albies, Markakis and Inciarte are all great lower-owned options as well who should have no trouble taking advantage of Cobb.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte Perfect Matchup
Freddie Freeman is one of the top non-Coors batters tonight. On FanDuel, his salary is affordable even for cash games at $4,400. Alex Cobb has a low 16.7% strikeout rate with no ability to control batted balls. Meanwhile, Freeman has just a 15.2% K rate with the same amount of walks against right-handed pitching and a massive 50% hard hit rate with 28% line drives and more strong contact hitters surrounding him that should give him run scoring and RBI opportunities. He ranks as a play in all formats for me, cash, GPP one-off and in stacks.
Dull and Cheap and Probably OK
Each site has a different dull lefty in a good matchup to consider. On FD, it’s Alex Wood with a very low $7,400 salary against a Mets team that is just not very good against left-handed pitching. Wood is no superstar, but he does have excellent control with average strikeout ability and he gets the job done more often than not. As is the case with Dallas Keuchel on DK/FDRFT, I do not recommend going overboard here, there is some risk without a huge amount of upside, it’s just simply not a good slate for pitching, and this salary and matchup line up well.
Gotta Play Somebody
I do not love Dallas Keuchel with his low strikeouts, and I am not recommending anything near a lock button in tournaments here. This is simply a case of a rough slate for pitching and a solid matchup at a fair price for Keuchel. This Royals projected lineup has just a .140 ISO and .290 wOBA against left-handed pitching and Keuchel checks in as the biggest favorite of the day. While there’s not a lot of upside, he is still piling up ground balls and limiting hard contact, so everything has to go wrong for him to have a bad outing. It’s certainly always possible for a guy with limited strikeouts, but on this slate, at his DK/FDRFT salary, he’s a guy I’ll have a fair amount of exposure to. Again, please don’t overvalue my marking him a Core Play, I do recommend spreading out at SP2 tonight.
It Doesn't Get Better Than This
When Nolan Arenado faced Jason Vargas at home earlier this week, I probably said something like ‘it doesn’t get much better than this matchup’ for Arenado. Well, it turns out it does get better. Wei-Yin Chen is a left-handed low strikeout, fly ball pitcher going into Coors Field. Arenado is already an elite contact hitter with elite power, and he only get a further boost from the 12.7% K rate of Chen and the 47% fly ball rate. I would consider him a must-play in cash games and a dangerous GPP fade.
The Top GPP Pitcher on a Thin Slate for Arms
This is a really ugly slate for pitching, and I don’t love paying the premium for Patrick Corbin in GPPs given his matchup against a Pirates team that doesn’t strike out a ton. As such, I’ll pivot down to Newcomb in tournaments in a great matchup against an Orioles team that has been a disappointment offensively all season long. They have just a .294 team wOBA against LHP, which ranks them fifth worst in baseball, and Newcomb has a solid overall profile with an above average strikeout rate and 3.84 SIERA. The walks are sometimes a concern, but I think he will excel in this favorable matchup.
Still On My Death Bed Waiting for a Good Game
As I have said before in my “Covering the Bases” piece, I will be on my death bed waiting for Jon Gray’s numbers to match his solid peripherals. It just seems like one bad inning does him in every time he starts. It was the first inning two starts ago against the Phillies, and it was the sixth inning his last time out. However, he still has 19 strikeouts in 11 innings over those last two starts. The “stuff” is still there, as his xFIP is an impressive 3.02 while his strikeout rate sits at 27.6%. Although I don’t love playing him at Coors Field, he checks in as a massive home favorite and gets to face a relatively weak Marlins offense. Could this finally be the night he gets it rolling? I like him as a GPP option on a slate that doesn’t offer much in the way of good pitching.
The Closest Thing To A Top Pitcher
This is a tricky pitching slate, and I think it’s a good night to spread out your exposure in tournaments. But I’ll start with Sean Newcomb in a home matchup against a beatable Orioles team minus the DH spot. At first glance, the heavily right-handed Orioles might look like a tough matchup for the left-handed Newcomb, but to this point in his career he has been tougher on righties, allowing just 26% hard contact with 48% ground balls and 23% strikeouts. There are a few different ways Baltimore could go with their lineup, but all of them have at least a few high strikeout batters. I don’t love the high walks from Newcomb, but we’re getting to the point where we can consider it effective wildness, as a 2.70 ERA doesn’t leave much to complain about.
Low-Cost Power Hunting
If you are looking to save some salary with your bats tonight, I don’t mind a mini-stack of some of the more affordable Angels’ bats. I don’t like to full stack against a pitcher like Marco Estrada, a massive fly ball guy who rarely gets completely shelled but does tend to give up the long ball. Luis Valbuena and Kole Calhoun are both dirt cheap and showed signs of life on Thursday with big games, and I like them as punts or one-off plays in all formats, while the likes of Kinsler and Simmons also won’t break the bank. Of course, you can always play Mike Trout as well against a pitcher who allows a ton of fly balls and has an xFIP and SIERA around 5.00 for the year.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Ian Kinsler, Andrelton Simmons A Sneaky Stack of Lefty Bats?
Most DFS players that are looking to spend on premium bats this evening are almost automatically going to look to the Rockies, and while I like the Rockies a lot, there’s some merit to considering a pivot in GPP formats due to ownership. Almost nobody is going to look to these expensive Nationals bats tonight, and they are my favorite top-end stack to pivot with. Zach Eflin has been pitching much better this year, but he is still susceptible to lefties. LHBs have posted a .325 wOBA against him this season to go along with a 35% hard contact rate, and Eflin’s ground ball rate dips quite a bit against lefties. We’re home run hunting here with upside on guys like Harper, Eaton, and Murphy — and both Eaton and Murphy should be nicely rested after a day off on Thursday.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy The Painfully Obvious Top Offense
The Rockies have been installed with an implied team total approaching SEVEN full runs tonight, which is one of the highest I have ever seen. It’s certainly justified, given their recent offensive surge combined with a Coors Field date against Wei-Yin Chen, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. His strikeouts are well below league average, he has one of the highest walk rates in the league, and his xFIP is approaching 6.00. A date against a red hot offense in Coors Field is not the recipe to get back on track. Nolan Arenado is the top play here, but literally every Colorado bat is a fine play tonight. You won’t find much value with this team, but the good news is that there aren’t any top pitching options that we need to prioritize tonight. The Rockies lead the herd by a wide margin.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond Tyler Skaggs scratched Thursday; John Lamb will start in his place
Skaggs has been scratched from his scheduled start for the Los Angeles Angels and will not pitch in Thursday’s matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays due to right hamstring tightness and is considered day-to-day. He’ll be replaced on the mound by left-hander John Lamb, who is also a southpaw like Skaggs, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projected outlook of the Blue Jays hitters in any significant fashion, but still be sure to double check projections for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: Maria I. Guardado via Twitter