DFS Alerts
Hit the Lock Button on this Pitcher
For most slates, you can make a case to fade anyone, whether that fade is based on ownership or price. I can’t warrant a Scherzer fade tonight, even though he’ll be highly owned and even though he’s expensive across the industry. In 15 starts this season, he has a 2.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 39%. He should be able to mow through this Orioles’ offense tonight. Their projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and that doesn’t even include their pitcher, who will likely offer a couple of easy strikeouts for Mad Max.
Hard-Hit Rate Through The Roof
Brent Suter has a .334 wOBA with a .208 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. He throws a lot of strikes and doesn’t walk a lot of guys. With that high ISO, I’m looking to attack him on a slate with limited hitting options. Jedd Gyorko has a .333 ISO with a .467 wOBA against lefties this season, and he also has a 51.7% hard-hit rate against LHB. I really like the upside for the Cardinals tonight, and it doesn’t seem like anyone is talking about them.
High Contact Rate
With limited value options on this slate, the Giants lefties make a lot of sense. Tyson Ross has a .361 wOBA with a 40% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. His velocity has been down in his last few starts, and he throws his fastball over 50% of the time. After a hot start to the season, Panik has slowed down, but he should hit leadoff tonight and he’s still cheap. Panik has a low strikeout rate and should make contact against Ross tonight. At his price, I’m willing to roll the dice on a leadoff hitter with good contact skills.
Thursday's OAK-CHW game postponed due to rain
The matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox on Thursday night has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up tomorrow, Friday, June 22 at 3:10 pm CST as part of a traditional doubleheader. The originally scheduled contest will begin at 7:10 pm CST or 30 minutes following the conclusion of the opening game but no sooner than the aforementioned start time. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Friday’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen via Twitter
The Clear Top Spot For Bats
Cubs lefties are the top of the line plays tonight against Matt Harvey with his 15.2% K, 8.3% BB, 42% FB, 41% hard hits, .291 ISO, .393 wOBA. All of Heyward, Rizzo, Zobrist, Schwarber and Happ are playable in all formats on all sites. On FanDuel, Ben Zobrist joins Heyward as another affordable contact hitter that is a fairly easy fit in cash games. Zobrist has more walks than strikeouts against righties this season and if he bats in the middle of this lineup, there will be runs scoring and RBI opportunites all over the place.
Hitting The Ball Is Good
This is one of those nights where we’re just going to need a couple cheap bats that can give us a few points here and there. There is nothing thrilling about Joe Panik or this Padres-Giants game, but the one thing we can count on is balls in play, where good things can happen. Panik has the 3rd lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball against right-handed pitching and should be batting at the top of the lineup. While he’s certainly not a power hitter, he is has his line drives up to 23% and has an average hard contact rate. At this salary on this slate, I’m happy with a guy getting the ball in play four times.
Searching For A Value Pitcher
Zack Godley is a very hit-or-miss pitcher, but with limited options on this slate, he’s in play on two-pitcher sites. The Pirates don’t strike out a lot, but they don’t have a lot of power in this lineup either. Not one guy in the projected starting lineup has a hard-hit rate over 40% this season against righties, and outside of Cervelli and Polanco, none of the other projected starters have an ISO over .200. Meanwhile, Godley has a 60.7% groundball rate against lefties this season, and he has a 9.2% hard to soft contact ratio against lefties. Righties have hit him much better this season, but outside of Cervelli, I’m not worried about the righties in this lineup. We have limited options on this slate, so if you’re trying to fit in Scherzer, Godley is an acceptable option as an SP2.
Coors is the easy spot on the afternoon board, but is it worth sacrificing top pitching
The Coors game is only available on the afternoon slate for DraftKings or full day on FanDuel and lineups have not yet been released, but at 5.94 implied runs, almost a full run above any other team this afternoon, Colorado bats against lefty Steven Matz are a no-brainer. Matz has been pitching well, but still has just a 7.8 SwStr% and 5.05 FIP on the season. RHBs have a .351 wOBA and xwOBA with 22 of the 23 HRs he’s allowed since last season. Nolan Arenado (214 wRC+, .384 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Trevor Story (156 wRC+, .350 ISO) and DJ LeMahieu (141 wRC+, .239 ISO) are the top bats on the board. Ian Desmond (104 wRC+, .240 ISO) has a 198 wRC+ over the last week. Kyle Freeland (20.7 K%, 3.89 FIP, .312 xwOBA) faces the Mets, who have a 73 wRC+, 25.9 K% and 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP, but a team 133 wRC+, 11.3 BB% and 20.8 HR/FB over the last week. Their 5.06 implied run line is behind only the Rockies. RHBs have a 55.3 GB% against him since last season, but with fewer strikeouts and are within three points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA. Asdrubal Cabrera (154 wRC+, .142 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be the top bat in the lineup if he is active (appeared to injure his arm, but stayed in the game last night). Todd Frazier (118 wRC+, .333 ISO) and Wilmer Flores (98 wRC+, . 234 ISO) would be other top RHBs. Considering the 36.2 GB% for LHBs against Freeland, Brandon Nimmo (92 wRC+, .138 ISO) and Michael Conforto (84 wRC+, .213 ISO) remain in play as well. LHBs have a .310 wOBA (.285 xwOBA) against Freeland since last year and both of those guys exceed a 195 wRC+ over the last week. Players may have to sacrifice Luis Severino if wanting to capitalize on Coors this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, Steven Matz, Ian Desmond, Kyle Freeland, Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto
Eddie Rosario (sore shoulder) scratched Thursday; Ryan LaMarre replaces
Rosario has been scratched from the Minnesota Twins original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Thursday’s matchup with the Boston Red Sox due to shoulder soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ryan LaMarre, who will play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Brian Dozier up to the two-hole, while Logan Morrison, Robbie, Grossman, Max Kepler, and Ehire Adrianza all shift up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Twins order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Rick Porcello at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Rhett Bollinger via Twitter Afternoon value may be in Minnesota bats
Rick Porcello has failed to complete six innings just twice over his last 14 starts and tied a season high with nine strikeouts last time out (third time). He still has just a 7.1 SwStr% over the last 30 days with an ERA and estimators just above four over this period, despite a league average .317 xwOBA. But since players can’t roster all the best bats and pitchers, this is the spot where it’s least clear which way players should lean this afternoon. Porcello could pitch well against the team with the second lowest implied run line on the slate (4.43) at a much lower cost than Severino (and even Paxton on FD), but the Minnesota bats might be where the value is at this afternoon. Since last season, LHBs are within three points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Porcello. This year, LHBs have just a .313 wOBA against him, but with six HRs, a 35.8 GB% and 38.4 Hard%. Joe Mauer (120 wRC+, .397 xwOBA, .109 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) leads off for less than $3.5K on either site. Eddie Rosario (158 wRC+, .292 ISO) is still too cheap, especially for just $3.5K on FanDuel. He has a 260 wRC+ and 57.9 Hard% over the last week. Eduardo Escobar (136 wRC+, .289 ISO) has been another hidden treasure against RHP in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, Rick Porcello The Clear Top Spot For Bats
Cubs lefties are the top of the line plays tonight against Matt Harvey with his 15.2% K, 8.3% BB, 42% FB, 41% hard hits, .291 ISO, .393 wOBA. All of Heyward, Rizzo, Schwarber and Happ are playable in all formats on all sites, but I like the salary, contact and lineup spot for Jason Heyward as a building block. With his 9.6% K rate out of the #2 spot, he is going to have multiple ways to score points in bunches tonight.
Pitcher to attack on FanDuel may be a must own on DraftKings
Kyle Gibson has been far from bad this season (23.8 K%, 3.27 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 49.8 GB%, .318 xwOBA, 5.9% Barrels/BBE), but he’s going to be the pitcher to attack outside of Coors this afternoon. It’s also almost impossible to roster him for $8.2K on FanDuel, despite being the low man on the board against an offense with a 116 wRC+ and 18.8 K% vs RHP, but DraftKings players stacking Coors and/or using Severino may need him for $5.9K. Though LHBs have a wOBA 10 points higher than RHBs against him since the start of last season, xwOBA reverses that, bringing RHBs up to .357 (32 point gain), despite a 54.3 GB% that’s eight points higher. J.D. Martinez (169 wRC+, .365 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is one of the top hitters in the league against same-handed pitching and is less expensive than Mookie Betts (125 wRC+, .236 ISO) and only a few hundred more than Andrew Benintendi (139 wRC+, .210 ISO). Mitch Moreland (110 wRC+, .237 ISO) has been the only other above average hitter in the lineup against RHP over this span.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland Top Bat On A Tough Slate
It may not end up being possible to get Rizzo in your lineups along with Max Scherzer, and if the values don’t appear to make it work, then prioritize Scherzer first. But if you can make it work, Rizzo against Matt Harvey is an ideal matchup. Harvey has no skills against left-handed batters, low strikeouts, low ground balls and too much hard contact leading to a .291 ISO and .393 wOBA. Rizzo has elite plate skills with just 9.9% K and 11.3% BB and should see all kinds of base runners ahead of him tonight.
Seattle's implied run line is a full run behind any other team this afternoon
The Mariners have the lowest implied run line on the board at just 3.43, in fact, it’s the lowest of the afternoon by a full run. Luis Severino has struck out at least nine and completed at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. His 32.3 K% and 13.2 SwStr% over the last month are best on the afternoon. For the season, his 2.95 SIERA and .286 xwOBA are best on the slate. Although he’s unlikely to no-hit the Mariners, it’s tough to find confidence in using any bats against him, even on a four to six game slate. Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Mitch Haniger (133 wRC+, .236 ISO) have been the best hitters against RHP over the last calendar year, but RHBs have just a .237 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) against same-handed batters since last year.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger A Fantastic High Upside Stack
For some reason, DFS players have been slow to come around on the idea of stacking against Aaron Sanchez, but I’ll gladly take a shot. He does get a fair number of ground balls, but stacks still have upside against him because of his massive 12.5% walk rate. That’s a recipe for disaster in this day and age of baseball. His SIERA and xFIP are close to 5.00 this year, and there’s no reason to fear him on the mound. Mike Trout is having one of the best offensive seasons ever, so you almost have to play him if you stack Angels. Ian Kinsler is an option at the top of the order, as he has shown some positive signs of late, while Andrelton Simmons is a fine component of a stack because of how weak the shortstop position is tonight.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Andrelton Simmons