DFS Alerts
Monday night's forecast is quite busy
The forecast has been updated for Monday night and it’s quite busy, including some spots with top pitchers tonight. The full report can be read on the Weather page and premium subscribers will want to join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for all the latest.
Mets showed signs of life in Arizona, have second highest implied run line at Coors
The Mets have just a 65 wRC+, 26.3 K% and 6.6 HR/FB against LHP this year, but the offense showed some signs of life over the weekend in Arizona and has the second highest implied run line on the board at Coors tonight (4.95). The real bummer here may be the cheap shortstop, Amed Rosario (91 wRC+, .187 ISO vs LHP career) in the nine spot. They’re facing a southpaw who has a league average xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate with no real platoon split, but Coors helps push that to within nine points of .340 for both sides by actual wOBA. The cost is up for Brandon Nimmo (70 wRC+, .080 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), who probably remains playable leading off in this spot. Todd Frazier (125 wRC+, .337 ISO) is the top overall bat in the lineup. A hobbling Asdrubal Cabrera (156 wRC+, .147 ISO) has just a 21 wRC+ over the last week, but did homer on Sunday. Wilmer Flores (89 wRC+, .209 ISO) has actually been better against RHP over the last calendar year, but is within $100 of $3.5K on either site.
Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Amed Rosario, Tyler Anderson, Wilmer Flores Two big bats atop the Dodger lineup against a pitcher with massive control issues
Tyler Chatwood hovers around a league average strikeout rate (19.9%) and has the second highest ground ball rate on the board (56.5%). However, his walk rate also hovers around a league average strikeout rate (19.9%), giving the Dodgers a 4.47 implied run line. The way to attack a pitcher like this is with stacks in order to take advantage of runs that result from walks. If that’s the plan for players tonight, those stacks must include Joc Pederson (135 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Max Muncy (165 wRC+, .339 ISO). Both are expensive (above $4K) on DraftKings, but the former has a 196 wRC+ (55.6 Hard%) over the last seven days and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel. LHBs have a .364 wOBA (.358 xwOBA) against Chatwood since last season, despite the 56 GB% against them.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Tyler Chatwood Rockies will rarely have a lower run line at home, opposing offense will rarely have one as high against deGrom
It’s hard to recall the last time the Rockies were hovering around 4.5 implied runs at home. It’s also hard to recall the last time a team had an upper half of the board implied run line against Jacob deGrom. With an 83 wRC+ , 14.6 K-BB% at home and 76 wRC+, 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP, the park doesn’t install as much fear as it has in the past in opposing pitchers and deGrom is still certainly a top overall arm tonight. Removing the game before and after a short DL stint, he’s pitched at least seven innings in nine straight with a low of seven strikeouts last time out in Atlanta. That said, 4.56 runs is not nothing and players may never get Charlie Blackmon (138 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Carlos Gonzalez (127 wRC+, .214 ISO) at home at lower ownership, considering the lack of a price decrease to compensate for the matchup. Right-handed batters have just a .265 wOBA, (.250 xwOBA) against deGrom since last year.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon Rangers have one of the highest run lines on the board despite a park downgrade
Ian Kennedy is facing an offense with a 25.7 K% vs RHP, but has just an 18.3 K% (7.6 SwStr%) over the last month. This gives the Rangers a 4.87 implied run line that’s third highest on the board tonight despite the park downgrade (though Kansas City is a positive run environment with favorable hitting conditions in tonight’s forecast). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA against Ian Kennedy since last season and xwOBA pushes LHBs to a .378 xwOBA with their 44.9 Hard% and just a 29.9 GB%. Each of the first eight batters in the Texas lineup are above a .175 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Shin-Soo Choo (116 wRC+, .198 ISO) is an elite level bat in this spot. Adrian Beltre (125 wRC+, .195 ISO) and the returning Elvis Andrus (114 wRC+, .178 ISO) are high value bats, especially for less than $4K on DraftKings. Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .327 ISO) has the most upside.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kennedy Houston lineup should surpass their 4.44 run line against reverse platoon right-handed Tampa Bay relievers
The Astros are red hot (177 wRC+, 13.1 K%, 19.7 HR/FB last seven days), yet sit near the middle of the board with 4.44 implied runs against the Tampa Bay bullpen today. The most negative run environment on the board explains a small part of that, but we know that Ryne Stanek (101 RHBs faced career with a .411 wOBA) will pitch the first inning or two and Matt Andriese (RHBs .364 wOBA, .360 xwOBA, 40.7 Hard% since last season) may pitch more of this game than any other reliever. These conditions would seem very favorable for Houston RHBs. In fact, none of the first seven batters in the lineup (either side) are below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year with the cleanup guy being the low man among those group with a 118 wRC+ and .160 ISO. The remaining six batters are all above a 125 wRC+ and .165 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. George Springer (131 wRC+, .210 ISO), Alex Bregman (135 wRC+, .198 ISO), Jose Altuve (160 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Carlos Correa (135 wRC+ ,.250 ISO) are all elite bats tonight.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Ryne Stanek, Matt Andriese, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman Another Ace, If Needed
With the weather continuing to look dicey in Cleveland, I’m going to add Gerrit Cole to the Core Plays list, not as an addition to Trevor Bauer, but as the pivot in the event that the delay risk looks too high for Bauer. While Cole’s dominance has dropped enough to put him at #2 on the list tonight, he still has a 29.4% K rate over the past month, more than enough to give him upside against the Rays, and his fly balls and soft contact should play well against their low power. I would still go Bauer first, but Cole is the clear second option tonight if you need it.
A Game To Save
I started with Austin Meadows here, but it’s Corey Dickerson who is batting 2nd for the Pirates tonight against the low strikeouts and high walks of Jhoulys Chacin against left-handed batters. With high contact, and the ability to hit line drives and fly balls, Dickerson has on base, power and run scoring upside at the top of this lineup. You can also find more saving here with his teammate Colin Moran batting cleanup.
Bartolo Colon has allowed 18 HRs over his last 10 starts, may have to work to keep that run going in Kansas City
Players may not recognize some of the names in the Kansas City lineup and may not like many of the others very much, but Kevin’s forecast calls for hot and humid with the wind blowing out to left (10-15 mph) and the Royals have an implied run line above four and a half runs tonight. This is because Bartolo Colon has allowed 18 HRs over his last 10 starts and a .463 xwOBA over the last 30 days supports the notion that this isn’t all about Texas. Damage can be done in bigger parks as well. Considering that batters from either side of the plate are between a .360 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Colon since last season, there’s plenty of value in a lineup where only Mike Moustakas (120 wRC+, .256 ISO) is above a 100 wRC+ or .190 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Remove Whit Merrifield (100 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Salvador Perez (87 wRC+, .186 ISO) and each of the remaining six bats are below an 80 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Alex Gordon (78 wRC+, .134 ISO) may also have some value in the two spot tonight for less than $3K. Only Merrifield (209 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%) and Hunter Dozier (75 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%) are above a 50 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Bartolo Colon, Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon High priced Brewer bats face a struggling pitcher who still has second lowest aEV on the board
Trevor Williams has an 8.57 ERA over the last month, though his estimators are half that and his exit velocity is the second lowest on the board this season (85.1 mph). There’s still little value in rostering him due to the 16.4 K%, but the Milwaukee lineup is looking a bit light as well. While LHBs have a wOBA 29 points higher than RHBs since last season, xwOBA reverses that to favor RHBs by 21 points. A power suppressing park in Pittsburgh could be benefiting Williams though and the Brewers top two RHBs against RHP over the last calendar year are Lorenzo Cain (104 wRC+, .096 ISO) and Ryan Braun (98 wRC+ ,.185 ISO), both at a cost well above $4K on DraftKings. Cain’s legs and leadoff spot still give him some value in a lineup implied for 4.65 runs tonight. Christian Yelich (140 wRC+, .201 ISO) and Eric Thames (127 wRC+, .185 ISO) are even more expensive on DraftKings, but reasonable on FanDuel. The latter has a 152 wRC+ and 71.4 Hard% in 16 PAs over the last week.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Trevor Williams, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain Cleveland is the only offense above five runs despite facing a pitcher who shut them down last time out
Dylan Covey had a 2.3 K-BB% in 70 major league innings last year. This season, he has a 14.8 K-BB% and his most recent two starts include 13 innings of two-run ball with 12 strikeouts and just one walk against these Indians and the Red Sox. That said, he still has not allowed a HR this year, which has his ERA well below his estimators, but he still has an xwOBA (.293) that’s fifth best on the board. Never the less, this is a tough offense and the only one Vegas has well above five runs tonight (5.3) and there is a game at Coors. Covey’s worst start this season did come in Cleveland (4.1 IP – 5 R – 2 ER – 3 BB – 3 K). RHBs have just a .229 wOBA against him this season. LHBs are at just .299, but batters from either side of the plate are within 10 points of a .360 xwOBA for his career now. It would seem there’s at least some benefit towards some left-handed Cleveland exposure tonight. Jose Ramirez (165 wRC+, .317 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (140 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Francisco Lindor (120 wRC+, .245 ISO) rarely are unplayable against all but the best RHPs. However, if players are struggling to pay up for bats after paying up for pitching, there’s some merit to believe the Vegas run line is a bit ambitious against a decent pitcher this year.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Dylan Covey, Francisco Lindor The Pirates have one strong, cheap LHB with which to take advantage of Jhoulys Chacin's large platoon split
The Pirates don’t have a single batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. As a results, it’s unfortunate, that they really don’t have a lot of left-handed punch with which to take advantage of Jhoulys Chacin’s large platoon split (LHBs .334 wOBA, .351 xwOBA since last season). In fact, the Pirates have just one LHB in the lineup above a 101 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. The good news is that Colin Moran (125 wRC+, .186 ISO) has a 189 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% over the last week as well and costs within $300 of $3K on either site tonight. He stands out in this Pittsburgh lineup as a high value play in the cleanup spot. Corey Dickerson (99 wRC+, .170 ISO) has some value as well in the second spot, for just $100 more on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin, Corey Dickerson Daily Bullpen Alert: Lowest average inning starters have strong bullpens behind them
Not counting what the Rays are doing, which actually tunes players into their plan for the majority of the game, nearly half the board is averaging less than 5.1 innings per start this season, but only Tyler Chatwood less than five innings per start. The reason for that is walks, but he’s backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days (2.91 FIP, 16.1 K-BB%). Kenta Maeda is the next low man on the board and after throwing 111 pitches, his next two starts have been very short with a DL trip in between. The Dodgers (3.16 FIP, 14.5 K-BB% last 30 days) have a similarly strong bullpen. The weakest bullpens to be found backing these shorter starters will be Kansas City (league worst 5.38 FIP last 30 days – 11.8 K-BB%) behind Ian Kennedy and the Marlins (league worst 5.6 K-BB% last 30 days – 4.55 FIP) behind Caleb Smith. The latter, however, is in a good spot in San Francisco and has been going deeper in games most recently though.
A 24.8 K% and .279 xwOBA over the last 30 days for just $7.5K in a decent spot
While the top of the board looks strong with some concerns tonight, players may want to consider dropping below $10K, where they may find some value. In the $7.5K range on either site, we find a pitcher with a 26.9 K%, 3.43 SIERA, 3.09 FIP and .315 xwOBA. He also facing an offense with a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and 25.1 K% on the road. His home park is power friendly, but really a neutral run environment at worst. Nick Pivetta has not exceeded five innings in four straight starts, allowing 10 ERs over the last two. He’s sustained a 24.8 K% over this span and a league average 31% hard hit rate. In fact, he has a .279 xwOBA over the last 30 days. A .347 BABIP and 65.3 LOB% have been the issue. Workload is probably the largest concern here, but he has completed seven innings three times this year. Zack Greinke is now firmly in the $9K mark after being beat up over his last two starts, one at Coors and one against a contact prone Pittsburgh team. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board and he’s facing another contact prone offense (Angels 20 K% vs RHP), but there are really only a few bats to worry about in that lineup, he’s in a negative run environment and the strikeouts are still there (25.4% last 30 days). Miles Mikolas is the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but just $8.3K on DraftKings. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but has a nearly league average 19.9 K% over the last month and has failed to pitch complete six innings just once since his first start of the season. He’s in a spot with plenty of upside against the Phillies (26.9 K% vs RHP). Caleb Smith has seen his strikeouts drop recently, as expected. He still sits above an 11 SwStr% for the season and most recent month and now costs less than $8K in a decent spot in San Francisco. Jaime Barria has just an 18.9 K% through eight starts, but was at a 13.5 SwStr% or better in four straight starts until his last and has a 24.4 K% in five AAA starts this season.
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Miles Mikolas, Jaime Barria, Caleb Smith Coors Field without the Price Bump
The Mets are playing in the best hitter’s park in baseball, so we can give a massive boost to their offense as a whole. Even though Tyler Anderson has been tough on right-handed hitters this season (.301 xwOBA), he still gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. I eventually expect his numbers to regress a bit. The best part about the Mets is that they didn’t really get the Coors Field price bump. Wilmer Flores has good power against left-handed pitching and has a strikeout rate of only 5%. Good things happen when you put the ball in play in Coors.
