DFS Alerts
Bullpen Start? No Problem
The Astros are one of my favorite stacks of the slate, even though they won’t be facing Ryne Stanek for more than a couple of innings. His splits don’t mean a whole lot, but he has allowed a .382 xwOBA and a 48% hard contact rate to righties, which doesn’t hurt the appeal of a right-handed heavy Astros’ lineup. The one through seven hitters are all viable here. Jose Altuve hits both left and right-handed hitters well, he has good power, and he always brings stolen base upside to the table.
Dominant Against Righties
Pivetta is better than people want to give him credit for. In 14 starts this season, he has a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a hard contact rate of 29%. If we take the name away and look strictly at the numbers, we should be chomping at the bit to target a pitcher with this type of upside at this price point. The Cardinals have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but Pivetta will have the platoon advantage in this matchup. St. Louis will likely have seven righties in their lineup tonight and Pivetta has held right-handed hitters to a .275 xwOBA with a 30% strikeout rate. All aboard the Pivetta train tonight.
Time to Consider this Pitcher Elite
Bauer was one of my favorite sleepers all last season and he was consistently a great play in DFS. It’s crazy to say this, but he actually has better numbers than Corey Kluber this season (and Kluber’s numbers are still elite). In 14 starts, Bauer has a 3.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. He’s expensive tonight, but the price is warranted, especially given his matchup. The projected lineup for the White Sox has a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Not only that, but Bauer has held the current White Sox roster to a .233 wOBA with a 31% strikeout rate in 121 plate appearances.
All of tonight's high priced pitchers come with concerns
Tonight’s nine (or ten) game slate includes three pitchers in the $10K mark. One is pitching at Coors (Jacob deGrom), one has been in a bit of decline over the last month (Gerrit Cole) and one has four straight double digit strikeout games (Trevor Bauer) and a great matchup tonight, but some weather concerns. Should conditions improve, Bauer is the top pitcher on the board at home against the White Sox (17.6 K-BB% on the road, 18.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 24.1 K-BB%, -3.2 Hard-Soft% last seven days). He struck out 12 of them in his last outing. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of four starts, but has pitched into the eighth inning in four of six. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board on FanDuel. Coors is a hamper, but not a death blow to daily fantasy pitching this year. The Rockies have an 83 wRC+ and 14.6 K-BB% at home, 76 wRC+ and 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP. DeGrom has thrown seven innings or more in six straight starts, missing eight strikeout (by just one) for the first time in that span last time out. Remove the last start before a short DL stint and first one back and you can add three more starts to that list. His 15.5 SwStr% is best on the board, a point and a half better than any other pitcher. His .248 xwOBA, 84.9 mph aEV, 2.4% Barrels/BBE and 26.7% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board. He’s only the third or fifth highest priced pitcher on either site tonight. Gerrit Cole costs $13K on DraftKings tonight. He’s in a great spot against a struggling offense (Rays 27.2 K% last seven days) in the most pitcher friendly run environment on the board tonight, but has just a 9.5 SwStr% over the last month, which has dropped his strikeout rate below 30% over that span. That said, he’s still completed six innings in all but one start this season. Six strikeouts in his last start was his second lowest total of the season, while four runs allowed was his most. He has the ability to cover that cost his price tag in this spot, but it’s far from a lock.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer
Weather Concerns
Things likely true: 1) Dylan Covey is better than most people thought 2) Dylan Covey is not as good as a 2.29 ERA. Covey has pitched remarkably for the White Sox and will take on the Indians for the second time in less than a week. In his last outing Covey only allowed two runs in seven innings pitched but allowed ten hits. He’s yet to give up a HR this year which seems like a trend unlikely to continue on Monday night. Betting markets don’t yet believe in Covey as the Indians opened with the highest implied run total of the slate and that total continues to increase. The Indians make for one of the top stacks of the night and you may be able to get them at discounted ownership depending on how many people avoid this game due to weather concerns.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion
Control Issues
Tyler Chatwood has the same strikeout rate as he does walk rate (19.9%) which is hilarious. He’s had some serious control issues this year but has gotten lucky with keeping those free runners from scoring (76.5 LOB%). Chatwood’s 5.93 SIERA is easily the worst on the slate and something we want to target, even if we don’t have ideal hitting weather in Chicago. It’s best to roster Dodger lefties as Chatwood has been significantly worse versus lefties (.372 wOBA) than righties (.285 wOBA) this year but Justin Turner still makes for a strong play as he’s handled same handed pitchers with more success throughout the course of his career.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson Not A Lot to Love
There aren’t a ton of legit GPP options at SP for Monday’s slate so if you really want to differentiate you’ll have to get a little ugly with it. Enter Zack Greinke. Things I’m not a fan of: rostering NL pitchers throwing at an AL park (addition of DH) and targeting teams that don’t strikeout. Unfortunately Greinke checks both of those boxes. So why play him even if it’s just a few GPP shares? Price and skill-set. Despite giving up a lot of hard contact this year (7.0 barrels/plate appearance) Greinke is still a very talented pitcher (3.29 SIERA, 26.2 K%) and he has some room out outperform his price tag despite the tough matchup.
No Globe Life
It’s no Globe Life Park in Arlington but a combination of perfect hitting weather and Ian Kennedy can still lead to a lot of dongs. Kennedy has struggled with the long ball throughout the course of his career, especially as it has progressed, and 2018 has been no different as he’s allowing 1.47 HR’s per 9 innings and a HR on 12.6% of the fly balls opponents hit against him. Joey Gallo is priced down across the industry and particularly stands out as guy with tremendous power upside in this matchup but the Rangers in general make for a strong stacking option with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar Bad Context
We once again have a spot where we have a really good pitcher traveling to Coors to face the Rockies. While the park factor is far from in deGrom’s favor, there’s some merit in backing stud pitchers in low-owned, non-ideal contextual situations. deGrom has had a stellar season – limiting contact in general (32.8 K%; 15.1 SwStr%) and generating weak contact when the opponent does get the bat on the ball (league best 1.4 barrels/plate appearance; fifth best average exit velocity @ 84.9 mph). Outside of the ballpark, this is a good matchup against the Rockies who own the league’s worst 76 wRC+ vs RHP on the season. Pricing doesn’t matter much when making a play like this in GPPs but it is notable that deGrom isn’t really priced down on DraftKings where he is SP3 but is on FanDuel where he comes in as the fifth highest priced pitcher on the day.
Too Cheap On FanDuel
Trevor Williams is not typically a guy I stack against, and I won’t likely stack against him tonight, but I still like the price for Thames on FanDuel. He has a .420 ISO with a .412 wOBA and a 92.9mph average exit velocity against right-handed pitching this season. Thames’ biggest issue against righties is strikeouts, and he shouldn’t have to worry about that tonight against Williams. While Williams has a 0% hard to soft contact ratio against lefties this season, he has a very low 9% strikeout rate as well. I’m giving a bump to Thames here, and he’s simply too cheap on FanDuel.
Should Hit At The Top of the Lineup
Alex Gordon is one of my favorite value plays on the entire slate, and I particularly love his price on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. With the recent injuries to this Royals offense, we should see Gordon hit second tonight, and while he doesn’t have massive power, he draws an excellent matchup against Colon. On top of the great matchup, it’s going to be a nice hot day in Kansas City. Gordon has a .325 wOBA against a .462 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, while his hard-hit rate is right at 40%.
Hitting the Ball Well Right Now
We don’t have a ton of value options on DraftKings tonight, even though I thought it was the other way around when I did my first look at this slate. I like Moran more on FanDuel and FantasyDraft where you don’t have to take up the third base spot on him, but if you need him on DraftKings, he’s a good value there as well. Chacin has pitched well this season but has always been a lot better against righties than lefties. He has a .328 wOBA with a 14.3% strikeout rate and a 38.9% hard hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Meanwhile, Moran has a .350 wOBA with a .423 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching and has a five-game hit streak rolling right now.
Upside At A Cheap Price
With Evan Longoria going on the DL, the Giants lineup isn’t as scary against left-handed pitching right now. When you add in this ballpark, it’s a favorable spot for Caleb Smith. First things first: McCutchen, Posey, and Williamson have good numbers against lefties, and those are the three bats that worry me. However, Smith has been semi-reverse splits this season, as he has a .274 wOBA against righties. Smith also comes in with a 27.7% strikeout rate with a massive fly ball rate. A fly ball pitcher with strikeout upside in San Francisco? That’s a nice recipe for a strong fantasy point total.
Get Back On Track With This Matchup
Nick Pivetta has been really good at times this season, but he’s struggled in his last two starts. Tonight though, he should face a team with at least six right-handed hitters, and it’s a great spot to get back on track. He has a .286 wOBA with a .113 ISO and a 29.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. Pivetta doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, and he does all of this while not walking batters. The top of the Cardinals lineup is a little scary, and I don’t usually take pitchers against them, but I think this is a great spot for Pivetta.
Upside At A Tough Position
It’s tough to get upside at a reasonable salary at the catcher position on DK, but that’s what we get here with Salvador Perez against Bartolo Colon. Perez loves to swing the bat, with one of the lowest walk rates in the league year after year. The best case for a batter like that is to face a pitcher who lives in the zone with a lack of swing and miss ability. with 16.5% K and 1.6% BB for Colon vs 15.8% K and 3% BB for Perez, balls in play are a near certainty. Once the ball is hit, we’ve got Colon allowing 41.7% hard contact to righties with Perez carrying a 50% hard hit rate. Hard hit balls in play? I’ll take it.
