DFS Alerts
AAA Beast
Freddy Peralta has been a beast this year for the Brewers AAA affiliate in Colorado Springs with a 2.75 ERA (2.55 FIP, 3.65 xFIP) and a 34.3% strikeout rate over 59 innings pitched. He also had an impressive Major League debut earlier this season striking out 13 Rockies in Coors in just over 5 IP. Those gaudy strikeout numbers should show you that there’s plenty of upside for Peralta even in an overall neutral matchup versus the Pirates (18.9 K%, 99 wRC+ vs RHP).
Efficient Spin Rate
To say it’s been a rough year for Rich Hill would be an understatement. Hill is the owner of a 6.20 ERA in just over 24 injury riddled innings pitched. So what’s the appeal? I’m still enamored by his 30.1% and 29.4% strikeout rates in his last two full seasons. Hill reportedly made a subtle mechanical change in his rehab start that “helped him get back that efficient spin rate he’s had the last three years” as he dominated by striking out 10 batters over 4.2 IP. There’s plenty of injury risk surrounding Hill, and he’s unlikely to throw anything over 90 pitches, but the upside for a player with his price tag is unrivaled.
31.7% Hard To Soft Contact Ratio Against Righties
I want to attack Eric Lauer tonight, but some of these price tags are really tough to swallow. It makes a lot more sense on FanDuel to attack him, and Chad Pinder continues to be underpriced over there. Pinder has a .200 ISO with a 93.2 average exit velocity against lefties this season. On top of that, his hard-hit rate is over 70%. This isn’t the greatest ballpark in the world, but it’s hard to pass up the hard hits from Pinder. Lauer has a .400 wOBA with a .200 ISO and a 42.6% hard hit rate against righties this season.
It's Just A Matter Of Time
Jose Miguel Fernandez isn’t your typical rookie, as he’s a 30-year-old former Cuban star. After struggling with the Dodgers in the minors in 2017, he’s shown some power with the Angels in AAA this season. In 203 at bats, he has a .217 ISO with a very low 8.4% strikeout rate. He also had a 154 wRC+ in AAA this season. Fernandez is off to a slow start for the Angels, but he’s cheap and he should hit 5th in this good matchup. While Koch has a lower wOBA to lefties this season, he still has a .189 ISO with a 43.5% hard hit rate to left-handed hitters.
Saving For Things On Sale
Tonight is about searching for values to afford the high end pitching and Coors Field bats. We’ll need to wait for lineups to be sure where the best values lie, but if we get Jose Miguel Fernandez back in the lineup for the Angels, this is a solid place to save. The Angels face Matt Koch who has just an 11.2% K rate against righties while allowing 47% hard contact. In his 2 minor league seasons, Fernandez has never struck out more than 9% of the time. Elite contact against a low strikeout pitcher at a bottom of the barrel salary is exactly the kind of thing I want to help fill out stars and scrubs lineups tonight.
200+ ISO With A Low Price Tag
Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer are always two guys I look at when the Indians are facing a left-handed pitcher. Carlos Rodon has a .333 wOBA with a .210 ISO and a 11.3% walk rate against right-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He also doesn’t get a lot of soft contact and he’s a pretty neutral groundball to fly ball pitcher. Guyer has a .255 ISO with a .363 wOBA and a .418 CXwOBA against lefties this season. He should hit 5th or 6th in the lineup, so I think he’s in play in all formats tonight.
Just Play The Best Play
If you haven’t heard me say this enough this season, here’s a perfect time for it – Don’t Overthink It. Nolan Arenado is clearly the top bat on this slate in the game that is clearly the best spot for offense. Jason Vargas is not the worst pitcher on the slate, but the Coors Field factor drops him to that level, and Arenado has simply cartoonish numbers against left-handed pitching. So far this season he has just 13% K along with 17% BB and 43% hard hits leading to a .341 ISO and .500 wOBA. In his career at home against lefties, the dude has a .355 ISO, .470 wOBA and 169 wRC+ with a homer every 12.7 AB.
The Ballpark Helps The Floor
Dereck Rodriguez has been okay in two of his first three starts and pitched well against the Marlins last time out. I was hoping he was going to be a little cheaper, but I think he’s worth considering on sites with two pitchers. In 50.1 innings in AAA this season, he posted a 1.19 WHIP with a 11% swinging strike rate and a 25% strikeout rate. He’s struggled a little with walks against the Nationals and that has boosted his small sample size numbers. He has an 11.2% swinging strike rate, but the strikeouts haven’t come with the swings and misses yet. With this great ballpark for pitchers and this Marlins offense that ranked 29th in team wOBA against righties, Rodriguez is a nice cheap option.
Just Too Cheap
The FanDuel pricing algorithm is not a fan of Chad Pinder. We’ll need to wait to see the lineups, but if he’s back up in the #2 hole tonight, his huge hard hit ability against lefties is just too good to pass up at this salary against the fly balls and hard hits of Eric Lauer. It’s so imperative to get some high end plays in tonight, that his strikeout risk is less of an issue than the upside from his power and salary.
Savings With Power
Tonight is all about finding the savings to make the high end pitching and Coors bats fit. I’m willing to take on a little more risk than usual even in cash games with a guy like Duvall who has some strikeout risk, but huge power against lefties. With Matt Boyd down at 18.4% strikeouts to righties, Duvall’s 24.6% K rate is not a deal breaker, especially when combined with a huge 52% hard hit rate and .281 ISO. He has a home run once every 13 AB against lefties over the past two seasons, and is at a nice salary on all sites.
Nice Upside At His FanDuel Price
Soroka is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate tonight, and I really like his price on FanDuel. I worry about the pitch count with the young Atlanta pitcher, but I certainly love the upside in this matchup. He uses four pitches to lefties, and he’s a fastball slider combo guy against righties. Like I’ve talked about so many times over the last two seasons, a lot of these Blue Jays hitters struggle with sliders. On top of the upside, he’s done a great job limiting the hard contact in a limited sample size this season. The bottom of this order is weak, and if he can get around the top, this could be a ceiling game for him.
The Ticket To Get In Play Here
The Coors Field game is the standout spot by a wide margin tonight, and you’ll want as much exposure as possible on both sides. Brandon Nimmo would be my first choice of Mets bats, but we get savings at a tougher position with Asdrubal Cabrera. The Rockies German Marquez is a below average strikeout pitcher to lefties and Cabrera is hitting the ball hard against right-handed pitching with line drives and fly balls. He will be near the top of the lineup and right in the middle of the action again tonight.
Play An Ace
Chris Sale and Justin Verlander are light years ahead of the rest of the field tonight. In cash games, even with expensive bats, I see it as a must to play one of these aces. Every last dollar is going to matter tonight, so on DK/FDRFT, I’m leaning on the savings of Chris being on Sale. On FanDuel, they are just $100 apart, and so closely matched that I would recommend shares of both, but there is a bit higher upside with Sale, so let’s start there. The Twins are not a good team against left-handed pitching, and Sale has the highest strikeout rate on this slate at 34% a low walk rate at 6.9% and an elite ability to limit hard contact at 24.9% for the season. There is just no flaw in his skill set, and he is always a guy with limitless upside.
Start of Monday's LAD-CHC game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs on Monday night will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Cubs have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates but have disclosed that they plan to make every effort to complete tonight’s contest. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Kenta Maeda not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries postponement risk and neither pitchers nor hitters should be considered “safe” for any format this evening.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter
Jay Bruce scratched Monday; Jose Bautista replaces
Bruce has been scratched from the New York Mets original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jose Bautista, who will play left field and slot directly into Bruce’s vacated seventh spot in the order, which slides Brandon Nimmo over to right field defensively. However, the remainder of the Mets lineup will stay intact as they face off against left-hander Tyler Anderson on the road at Coors Field this evening.
As reported by: Tim Healey via Twitter