DFS Alerts
Elite Skills So Far
I wish we had a little more sample size on Austin Meadows, but there’s just no arguing with what he’s done so far this season since his callup. He has struck out just 14.9% of the time with a 40% hard hit rate and 47% fly balls against right-handed pitching. Jhoulys Chacin has some skills against righties, but is a pitcher without a skill to lefties with low strikeouts, high walks and a too much hard contact allowed. All the Pirates lefties are playable on all sites, but the Meadows skills and salary stand out on FanDuel tonight.
Good Hitting Beats Bad Pitching
Bartolo Colon has just a 14.3% strikeout rate to left-handed batters and is again allowing a high hard hit rate with no ability to control batted balls. Mike Moustakas continues to hit the ball often and hit the ball hard and in the air. His 14.2% K rate, 47.8% hard hits and 45% fly balls have led to a .255 ISO and .369 wOBA against righties. His recent stretch of a low BABIP looks like nothing more than sample size fluke, as he has a 12.8% K rate and 47% hard hits over the past two weeks with 28% line drives. The hits will start falling in sooner rather than later.
Gotta Get Involved Here
This is not the typical must-play Coors Field game tonight, with an ace on one side and a Mets team that struggles with lefties on the other side, but we can find a couple Mets right-handed bats to focus on to take advantage of the altitude and average at best skills of Tyler Anderson against righties. Asdrual Cabrera has the best combination of contact and hard hit ability against lefties, and also has the benefit of being a switch hitter when the Rockies dip into the bullpen. Even with the Mets struggles, they have the 2nd highest team total on the slate, and they should be able to load up enough righties to make things tough on Anderson.
The Better Ace
You can’t really go wrong with either Trevor Bauer or Gerrit Cole in a similar price range tonight, but Bauer has simply been the better pitcher recently. Cole doesn’t have a double digit strikeout game since May 4th, while Bauer has six in his last seven starts and faces a slightly higher strikeout opponent. Bauer has 64 strikeouts and just 10 walks in his last six starts and I can’t find any reason to get off this bandwagon now.
Facing exploitable Rangers lineup (25.8% K%), Jon Gray still has more than a two-run difference between his ERA and SIERA
If evaluating purely surface numbers, it’d be easy to write-off Jon Gray as a viable pitching option on Sunday’s slate, as he’s allowed a minimum of four earned runs in five of his last six starts. However, if not for a three-run home run surrendered to Scott Kingery and the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning of his previous outing, Gray’s pitching line would have been spectacular considering he still managed to record 10 punch outs in just six innings of work. It’s difficult to completely brush aside the dismal 5.68 ERA, but if we’re able to look past Gray’s results, we’ll find career-best marks in a 3.41 SIERA, 3.09 xFIP, and 26.8% strikeout rate that elevate him into the stratosphere of the top pitchers on the board this afternoon. Add all this to the fact that Gray draws a tantalizing matchup with a Texas Rangers squad that ranks 24th in wOBA and own the second-worst strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this season, including a confirmed starting nine that sports a combined 25.8% strikeout rate to righties, it’s easy to visualize his upside in this spot at his reduced price tag across the industry. Obviously, there’s a wide range of outcomes for Gray today, making him a better tournament target than cash game option, but his massive .371 BABIP will not last a full season and can be largely attributed to pitching half of his games at Coors Field, so there’s no better time than now to hop on board in hopes that Gray can begin his turnaround on the road at a likely decreased ownership percentage on the DraftKings and FantasyDraft main slates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ
Chance Sisco scratched Sunday; Austin Wynns replaces
Sisco has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Sunday’s matchup with the Miami Marlins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Austin Wynns, who will handle the catching duties and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Trey Mancini, Jace Peterson, and Craig Gentry all up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Orioles order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Trevor Richards at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Value from the Cleanup Spot
We can’t put much stock into DeSclafani’s 2018 numbers to date, as he has only thrown ten innings at the major league level since his return, though he has allowed a whopping 55% hard contact rate in those ten innings. It’s no surprise to see some rust, especially since he hasn’t pitched at this level since 2016. He has allowed a .349 wOBA against LHBs with a low 38% ground ball rate for his career, so any left-handed value is a great option here. Enter Colin Moran, who has become the cleanup hitter for this team thanks to all their recent injuries. He fits the left-handed value bill, and the RBI opportunities from the cleanup spot are a nice bonus. He’s my favorite play from this team, and it’s really not all that close. Even though he may not be a very talented hitter (especially for a cleanup guy), the matchup and price tag are the primary appeal.
Value Exposure to a High Upside Offense and a Red Hot Team
Houston has an implied team total of 5.85 runs as of the time I am writing this. That is a remarkable total for a team that is playing in Kansas City, which is normally considered a pitchers’ park. However, it’s 92 degrees in Kansas City today, the wind is blowing out, and the Astros are locked in at the dish right now. As a team, they have won 10 games in a row, scoring 7.4 runs per game in that stretch. That’s locked in for what has to be considered the best team in baseball. There are a number of different paths to fire up your Astros bats against a mediocre young pitcher. You can go for the value with a guy like Josh Reddick or Yulieski Gurriel, both of whom remain affordably priced on every site. Both are just too cheap for their potential in this lineup, and they are core cash game plays.
Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel My Favorite Hitter of the Day
Manny Machado has been the lone bright spot for this Baltimore offense in 2018. Here are Machado’s splits against RHP this year: .324 AVG, .396 OBP, .981 OPS, .261 ISO, .406 wOBA, 161 wRC+. Even though he has cooled off since his hot start to the year, Machado is in a great spot and is my favorite play on the board for cash games this afternoon against a mediocre righty in Trevor Richards.
Turn Back the Clock!
I don’t think I’ve rostered C.C. Sabathia all year, but I just might be forced into giving him a look on some teams today. His fly ball lean plays well against a Rays squad that lacks power outside of C.J. Cron, and the nature of the slate means the opportunity cost is relatively low if you decide to punt a pitching selection. Sabathia doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside anymore, but even a performance along the lines of six innings with two runs allowed and five strikeouts would be enough to make him (likely) one of the top point-per-dollar pitchers of the day assuming he can grab a victory. The profile isn’t all that inspiring, but I like the way he matches up with this team.
The Top Sunday Pitching Choice
His DFS upside doesn’t match the Scherzer, Sale types, but there’s still plenty to like with Aaron Nola. He has held hitters from BOTH sides of the plate to a sub-.240 wOBA this season. His ability to limit hard contact ranks him among the best pitchers in the league. His walk rate is solid at just 6%, and his strikeouts are above league average. He knows how to get ground balls when he needs them. The only thing holding him back is the fact that he doesn’t have the “blow you away” type stuff that allows him to rack up 15 strikeouts when he is on his “A” game. That makes some DFS players uncomfortable when it comes to paying Nola’s high price tag. I understand the logic, but there’s still plenty to be said for the safe floor, even in a matchup against a solid Milwaukee offense. In cash games, Nola is still your top selection today.
Baby, Baby, Baby, Oh
Logan Morrison enters Sunday’s main slate as one of the top pt/$ options at the 1B position. LoMo hit a pair of doubles en route to a 20 point DK performance on Saturday and gets a more favorable matchup on Sunday against Cleveland’s young righty Shane Bieber. I’m not looking to target Bieber aggressively in the context of Sunday’s slate but the first base position is relatively weak and LoMo’s cheap tags ($3,100 DK; $2,600 FD) vault him into being a top value option.
Washed Up
COL/TEX isn’t available on FanDuel’s main slate but it’s worth highlighting that the Rockies will square off against the 32 yo Yovani Gallardo who hasn’t made a Big League appearance since being DFA’d by the Reds back in early April. Yo has put up fine numbers in his AAA stint with the Rangers but it’s pretty clear he’s well past his prime – his last two full seasons he’s posted a 5.34 SIERA in 2016 and a 5.27 SIERA in 2017. Arenado is the top overall option on the Rockies and really isn’t priced too extravagantly considering the favorable context.
Discounted Tag
It’s a little weird saying that a guy priced this high has a discounted price tag but that’s the case with Harper, especially on FanDuel where he can be rostered for $4,300. Harper and the Nats will take on Sam Gaviglio at the Rogers Centre as the Nationals come in to Sunday’s slate with one of the highest implied run totals on the board (5). Gaviglio has pitched admirably for the Blue Jays this season but has struggled versus left handed bats in his limited sample – .340 wOBA, 5.10 xFIP, 12.3 K%.
Breakout game coming!
The Nats lineup has been almost fully healthy for a couple games now. They are struggling to be sure but that will change soon and the Nats will show themselves to be one of the best offenses in baseball. Today they have a nice park upgrade and get a DH as they face Gaviglio and the Jays. The entire lineup 1 through 6 has a .194 ISO vs RHP since the start of the 2017 season with Harper Murphy and Soto all well above .300 . While Sammy G and the Jays pen have been decent, this matchup should prove too much. With the Nationals power speed upside they are one of my favorite stacks and I will have exposure to the entire lineup throughout all my GPP entries.
Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton