DFS Alerts

An Intriguing Risk/Reward Pitching Option

Beeks will be called up to make a spot start in place of the injured Drew Pomeranz. He has been very good in Triple-A this season, as he currently sports a 2.56 ERA and has piled up 80 strikeouts in just under 57 innings pitched. I wouldn’t expect him to jump to the majors with that kind of success, but it’s clear that the potential is there. He also draws a fairly soft landing spot against a mediocre Tigers lineup, so there’s reason to consider him as a GPP pitcher tonight. He’s one of the better options if you are looking to fade Gerrit Cole, or you can definitely consider Beeks as an SP #2 on the multi-pitcher sites.

The Top Pitching Option... By a Mile

Yes, he’s expensive… very expensive. However, this slate is just awful when it comes to pitching. We have a ton of rookies and quite a few gas cans on the mound, and no other pitcher on the slate qualifies as anything near an ace. I will do everything possible to get Cole and his 38% strikeout rate and 2.34 SIERA into all my lineups tonight — especially in a matchup against a Rangers squad that owns the third highest team strikeout rate in baseball this season. Cole dwarfs every single pitcher on this slate in terms of both floor and upside.

Ian Kennedy has allowed at least five ERs in four of his last five starts

The Angels have yet to produce a lineup, but when they do, it’s expected to be one of the higher scoring ones of the night (4.84 implied runs) against Ian Kennedy despite the negative run environment. Kennedy has allowed at least five ERs in four of his last five starts with eight HRs over that span. Among batters who have faced tonight’s opposing pitcher at least 20 times in their career, Albert Pujols, Ian Kinser and Justin Upton have the three highest xwOBAs (.377 or better) with a combined six HRs against Kennedy. While some of these numbers go back further, xwOBA represents more recent matchups in the Statcast era (since 2015). Mike Trout (184 wRC+, .447 xwOBA, .328 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) doesn’t have the same personal history against Kennedy, but is obviously a top rated bat tonight.

J.B. Shuck scratched Wednesday; Lewis Brinson replaces

Shuck has been scratched from the Miami Marlins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to a presently unspecified reason, though a clerical appears to be the blame. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Lewis Brinson, who will play center field and slot directly into Shucks’s vacated eighth spot in the order, which enables the remainder of the Marlins lineup to stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jack Flaherty on the road this evening.

Two-thirds of Bartolo Colon's HRs have been surrendered at home this season

Bartolo Colon has somehow made it work in Texas, completing seven innings in half of his 10 starts for the Rangers, though in just two of his five home starts, while allowing between three and six runs in each one. Vegas is leaning towards the high end of that tonight. The A’s are currently and narrowly the top team on the board tonight (5.39), against a pitcher who has allowed 10 of his 15 HRs at home this season (four in a start in Texas twice!) and has only struck out more than four batters in one start this year. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with a hard hit rate above 35% since last season. Red hot Dustin Fowler (110 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) jumps into the leadoff spot. He has a 219 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% over the last year. Matt Olson (155 wRC+, .344 ISO) is even hotter (266 wRC+, 72.2 Hard% last seven days). Khris Davis is another hot bat (165 wRC+, 58.3 Hard%), who torches RHP (133 wRC+, .275 ISO).

Same-handed batters have an insane .516 wOBA against Hector Santiago since last season

The Twins haven’t been very potent against LHP this year (91 wRC+, 7.8 HR/FB). None the less, their implied run line has shot up a quarter of a run over the course of the afternoon to where it now stands at 5.31, within one-tenth of a run of the top number on the board currently. Only Brian Dozier (162 wRC+, .281 ISO) and Miguel Sano (113 wRC+, .233 ISO) have even been competent against LHP over the last calendar year, but Hector Santiago has been horrible. RHBs have just a .310 wOBA against him since last year, but with a 29.8 GB% (33.3 Hard%) and xwOBA spikes that to .366. LHBs have an other worldly .516 wOBA (.445 xwOBA) and 41.7 Hard% against him over the same span (113 faced). While a small sample size, that would need to regress .200 points to even reach league average. It’s probably acceptable and maybe even mandatory to play almost any LHB against him. In this case, Eddie Rosario (93 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Max Kepler (77 wRC+, .189 ISO) would qualify with the Twins making it easy by placing both in the top half of the lineup.

Some cooler temperatures, but no rain in Wednesday's forecast

Kevin’s forecast is updated for Wednesday night and there’s not a hint of rain, though conditions are a bit cooler than normal in some spots. Players can read the entire forecast on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest info on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

St Louis lineup presents four batters exceeding a .400 xwOBA against LHP last calendar year (none below .333).

Wei-Yin Chen followed up a great start against Washington, the only one in which he’s completed six innings (he pitched into the eighth) with a stinker in San Diego. It was the third time he’d allowed four runs or more in four innings or less this year. Aside from Matt Carpenter (92 wRC+, 115 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) in the leadoff spot, he’ll face an entirely right-handed lineup in St Louis tonight. Batters from that side have a .336 wOBA (.313 xwOBA) against him since last season with six of the eight HRs he’s allowed this year. Jose Martinez (206 wRC+, 499 xwOBA, .360 ISO) destroys LHP. In smaller samples over the last calendar year, Jedd Gyorko (206 wRC+, .427 xwOBA, .354 ISO) and Harrison Bader (193 wRC+, .354 xwOBA, .333 ISO) have done so as well. Yadier Molina (110 wRC+, .481 xwOBA, .293 ISO) and Tommy Pham (146 wRC+, .425 xwOBA, .245 ISO) join the .400 xwOBA against southpaws as well. Not a single batter in the lineup (including Carpenter) is below a .333 xwOBA against LHP over that span. While Marcell Ozuna (101 wRC+, .333 xwOBA, .115 ISO) has disappointed in that respect, he has a team (and MLB leading – 10 PA min.) leading 343 wRC+ with a 64.3 Hard% and two HRs over the last week. Somehow, the Cardinals have just a 101 wRC+ against LHP this year, but with an 11.4 BB% and 19.3 HR/FB, both split highs for today. With a 4.98 implied run line just outside the top five tonight, this St Louis lineup could do some damage to Chen and a faulty bullpen behind him.

Daniel Mengden has a larger gap between his wOBA and xwOBA (81 points) than any other pitcher on the board

Daniel Mengden has completed six innings in five straight starts, four of which he pitched into the seventh in, completing seven in each of his last three, in which he’s allowed a total of three runs over 24 innings. He’s only struck out seven of 84 batters over that span and has just a 16.2 K% on the season, while xwOBA (.338) has a larger disagreement with his actual wOBA (81 point difference) than any other pitcher on the board tonight. That disagreement extends to batters from either side of the plate since last season. RHBs have a .283 wOBA and LHBs just .248, but xwOBA raises those marks 55 and 88 points respectively to within four points of .340 each. Vegas is siding with the Rangers (5.11) at home tonight. Mengden’s recent success could leave an affordable offense under-owned in a great hitting environment. Joey Gallo (124 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Nomar Mazar (104 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Shin-Soo Choo (117 wRC+, .203 ISO) all exceed a 140 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last seven days as well.

Is there enough reason to fade Houston bats at home against a reverse platoon lefty?

The scuffling Astros (90 wRC+, 24.5 K%, 3.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week) face Wade LeBlanc at home, where they have a 4.91 implied run line that’s just outside the top five tonight. The initial thought for many players might be to stack up powerful Houston RHBs against a marginal lefty, but LeBlanc has not been that bad. In six May starts, he had a 1.72 ERA (3.46 FIP) with a perfectly acceptable 13.8 K-BB% and 3.2 Hard-Soft%. Further, he has a reverse split. Since last season, RHBs have just a .273 wOBA against him, though xwOBA raises that to .329. This is not a small sample thing either. For his career, RHBs have just a .317 wOBA against him (LHBs .373). While George Springer (149 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Carlos Correa (191 wRC+, .212 ISO) continue to destroy southpaws, Alex Bregman (134 wRC+, .201 ISO) is the only other batter above a 100 wRC+ and .170 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. While not exactly advocating for LeBlanc against a very dangerous lineup, there may be enough reason to consider a fade of Houston bats in an extremely negative run environment.

Yankees almost seem a bit low at just over five implied runs in Toronto tonight

The Yankees almost seem a bit low at 5.09 implied runs against Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed a wOBA within four points of .340 to both left and right-handed batters since last season, though xwOBA gives a further advantage to LHBs by a bit over 20 points. Gaviglio, who has had a below average strikeout rate throughout every stop in the minors and majors the last three years, suddenly has a 25.3 K% in 21.1 major league innings after striking out 26.9% in 29 AAA inning this season. Despite the unexpected turnaround, he’s still allowed four HRs over his last two starts. If players are still looking at his $4.6K price tag on DK with that strikeout rate after the Bombers were shut down by Marco Estrada last night, realize that the Blue Jays have not let Gaviglio exceed 88 pitches in any of his starts. Aaron Judge (173 wRC+, .345 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is back in the lineup after a day off, following an eight K double-header in Detroit. He, Giancarlo Stanton (133 wRC+, .307 ISO and Gregory Bird (120 wRC+, .309 ISO) lead a group of seven batters who have an .249 ISO or better against RHP over the last calendar year. Only Brett Gardner (118 wRC+, .161 ISO) and Austin Romine (95 wRC+, .103 ISO) fail to reach that mark. This is an expensive lineup that players may have the salary to afford tonight.

Blaine Hardy hasn't embarrassed himself in four starts, but has a tough task ahead of him at Fenway

The Red Sox have one of the top Vegas run lines on the board (5.33) at home against Blaine Hardy, who hasn’t lit the world on fire, but hasn’t embarrassed himself in his four starts (no more than two ERs in any). In 59.1 innings, mostly out of the bullpen since last season, RHBs have a .355 wOBA, LHBs a .323 wOBA, but xwOBA reverses that to .337 and .367. Same handed batters actually have a hard hit rate 10 points higher against him too (42.4% to 32.8%). Regardless, J.D. Martinez (166 wRC+, .425 xwOBA, .307 ISO, 53.4 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year) remains an elite bat tonight and a potential bargain, even at $5K. Eduardo Nunez (71 wRC+, .127 ISO) costs around $3K on either site, but has a lineup leading 210 wRC+ over the last week if players are looking for cheaper exposure to this lineup. Sam Travis makes an appearance for less than $3K as well, but his 123 wRC+ in limited appearances against LHP over the last calendar year at the major league level is not supported well by .318 xwOBA andn .125 ISO. He had just an 84 wRC+ and 32.6 K% overall at AAA this season as well.

Caleb Ferguson is a 21 year-old, 38th round 2014 pick making his major league debut for the Dodgers in Pittsburgh tonight. After finishing last season with a 26.6 K% in 25 starts at High A last season, he’s blown through both AA (25.8 K%, eight starts) and AAA (31.6 K%, two starts), while blazing a path to the majors for an injury riddled staff. He was not even named among the top 23 prospects in the system by Fangraphs just less than a month ago. The only mention of him was that it’s difficult to pick the ball up out of his hand. The Pirates may not know much about him either and he debuts in a park that punishes right-handed power, of which the Pirates don’t have much anyway. Francisco Cervelli (.188 ISO) and Sean Rodriguez (.226 ISO) are the only two RHBs above a .160 ISO against southpaws over the last calendar year. Seemingly arriving out of nowhere, Ferguson still arrives at a cost of $7.1K on DraftKings, but is much less expensive on FanDuel ($5.5K).

Jose Abreu (.251 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) gets a shot at a home run prone pitcher in a power friendly park

Jake Odorizzi has allowed four HRs over his last two starts and 13 over his last 9, pushing his season ERA above four with estimators still above that. Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher with a reverse split (RHBs .341 xwOBA, 39.4 Hard% since last season) in a park that favors RH power in Minnesota. Jose Abreu has a lineup leading 142 wRC+ and .251 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. He has a contact xwOBA above .390 against both the four-seam fastball and slider since 2016 according to PlateIQ, the two pitches Odorizzi utilizes 80% of the time against RHBs this year. Yoan Moncada (127 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Matt Davidson (94 wRC+, .235 ISO) have shown above average power against RHP as well. Davidson, additionally, has a .500+ Contact xwOBA against those two pitches since 2016 as well.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Terrible KC and Miami pens back pitchers who struggle to go deep into starts

Tonight’s slate includes two pitchers (Wei-Yin Chen and Hector Santiago) not even averaging five innings per start. The Cardinals have a predominantly right-handed lineup that may have the luxory of facing one of the worst bullpens in baseball should they knock Chen out early again. The Marlins have 4.59 FIP and 9.9 K-BB% that are both bottom three marks in baseball. The White Sox are a bit better comparatively, but still own just a middling 4.03 FIP and 13 K-BB% out of the pen. Sal Romano, Ian Kennedy and Sonny Gray are averaging almost exactly five innings per start. Gray has looked strong with six innings or more in two of his last three starts and is backed by a monster bullpen (3.11 FIP, 22.3 K-BB%). The Cincinnati bullpen has a 4.10 FIP and 11.2 K-BB%, but is not without weapons. The Royals (4.90 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%) are a fixture at the bottom of the board for bullpens, though the Cleveland bullpen has recently flown past them with a FIP above five on the season now.