DFS Alerts
Fantasy Options in Abundance in Arlington
The A’s are the top stack on the board tonight, as they square off against Bartolo Colon in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. In addition to a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate, Bartolo Colon has allowed a .323 xwOBA to lefties and a .389 xwOBA to righties. The one through eight batters in this lineup are all viable. As far as individual plays, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Matt Olson all boast a .350+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Who Doesn't Love Home Runs?
The Angels have one of the best matchups of the slate. While this ballpark limits home run production, that shouldn’t stop Ian Kennedy from doing what he does best. In his last 42 major league starts, Kennedy has allowed 46 home runs — 23 to lefties and 23 to righties. In this season alone, he has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 41%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Mike Trout currently boasts a .479 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Big Discount on a Pitcher with Elite Upside
Gray is a much better pitcher than his 5.68 ERA would lead you to believe. In 12 starts, he has a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 6%. He has an above-average ground ball rate and has historically been good at limiting hard contact. A matchup against the Reds in Cincinnati would be a downgrade for most pitchers, but this is actually a ballpark upgrade for Gray. He’s dirt cheap across the industry and one of the best point-per-dollar options on the board.
Mid-range pitcher due for major regression may be severely under-priced tonight
There are a few mid-range pitchers players should be looking at tonight, but the top value play at the position may only cost around $7.5K. Eduardo Rodriguez is near the top of the board in strikeout rate (28.2%) and xwOBA (.291) with an ERA and SIERA below three and a half over the last month. He costs more than $8K on either site against a surprisingly potent (115 wRC+) and contact prone (18.1 K%) Detroit offense against LHP. Alternatively, Jose Quintana (22.4 K%, .330 xwOBA) would appear to be in a high upside matchup hosting the Phillies (76 wRC+, 26.7 K% on the road, 40 wRC+, 28.9 K% last seven days), but they are a bit tougher against LHP (10.9 K-BB%) and Quintana has just an 8.1 SwStr% supporting his strikeout rate and has ERA estimators all above four for the season and over the last month. Quite a bit cheaper than both of those pitchers is Jon Gray (26.2 K%, .308 xwOBA) in Cincinnati. He’s allowed at least four runs in four straight starts, but three of those games were pitched at Coors. He’s actually increased his strikeout rate (28.7%) with ERA estimators below three over the last month, in which he has just a .311 xwOBA that’s 47 points below his actual mark over this span. The culprit is a .440 BABIP and 61.6 LOB%. He does have a 39% hard hit rate over his last five starts, but that’s also with a 55 GB%, while that hard hit rate has actually been 25% or below in each of his last two starts. This is not a risk free pitcher at all, but perhaps recent struggles will keep ownership down.
Other tagged players: Jose Quintana, Eduardo Rodriguez
Favorite Ace of the Slate
Ohtani is my favorite pitcher on the board tonight. I’ve been a big fan of Ohtani, but haven’t used much of him in DFS this season. He always seems overpriced or in a difficult matchup. We finally have an opportunity to play him at a reasonable salary and in an exploitable matchup. The Royals draw nearly as few of walks as any team in baseball, which should help Ohtani pitch deep into this game. He’s a large favorite and he’s pitching at home in a good ballpark for run prevention.
Differentiating among the top end pitchers, including a surprise $10K club member tonight
Seven of 20 teams on a 10 game main slate have an implied run line below four runs tonight with Kansas City (3.17) the lowest of the bunch and the only one below 3.5 runs. That makes Shohei Ohtani the most interesting pitcher on the board. He has the top strikeout rate (31.3%) and swinging strike rate (15.5%), along with the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.7%) and 95+ mph EV (29.9%). This should play out well against a Kansas City offense without power (8.4 HR/FB vs RHP). The main issue here is that they have a 17.7 K% vs RHP that’s the lowest split on the board. The good news is that Ohtani is not the highest priced pitcher on the board. That honor falls to Aaron Nola, who covers Ohtani by a full $1K on FanDuel. He’s completed six innings in 10 straight starts and pitched into the seventh in eight of those. Daniel Mengden and Bartolo Colon are the only other two pitchers on the slate averaging more than six innings per start this year. Nola also has a 31.2 K% over the last month, while his .263 xwOBA for the season tops the board. He does have one of the tougher matchups on the board at Wrigley, but winds should not impact this game and the Cubs can be pitched to. While no pitcher reaches the $10K mark on FanDuel tonight, two more cross that barrier on DraftKings. Lance McCullers (25.5 K%, .313 xwOBA). He’s been a bit hit or miss this season, striking out a total of six Red Sox and Indians over his last two starts, but certainly has the upside, along with a board topping 55 GB% to win someone a GPP. The matchup with the Mariners is somewhat neutral, but he does face them in one of the most negative run environments in baseball in Houston. Jack Flaherty is a surprising member of the $10K club, especially considering that he costs just $7.8K on FanDuel (though Ohtani’s price gap is actually $100 larger). Then you realize he’s facing the Marlins (76 wRC+, 24.4 K% on the road, 78 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP). Flaherty has an impressive slider (.242 xwOBA, 42.5 Whiff%) that he throws 28% of the time. By Fangraphs weighted metrics, the Marlins have a -20.3 wSL that’s third worst in baseball. Flaherty’s .296 xwOBA (4.5% Barrels/BBE) is fifth best on tonight’s board.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Lance McCullers, Jack Flaherty Flying High On Wednesday Night
Cardinals right-handed power is a top target tonight, and with Yadier Molina off the DL, he gives you affordable access to a top team while filling your tough catcher position on DK. Wei-Yin Chen has always allowed power to righties with his high fly balls, and has seen his strikeouts drop tremendously this season. Since the start of 2017, Molina has a .265 ISO along with an impressive 85% contact rate and 47% hard hits against left-handed pitching.
Still Crushing Lefties
If you’re a new RG member, welcome, but if not, then I’m sure you know how much I love James McCann against left-handed pitching. He’s mashing them again this season and has great numbers in his career against LHP too. McCann has a .257 ISO with a .390 wOBA and a 41.5% hard hit rate against left-handed pitchers since the start of 2017. I know Rodriguez has pitched better over his last three starts, but I still want to play McCann in against a lefty, especially in this ballpark.
Power Upside With A Cheap Price Tag
I don’t love paying down at first base, but I really like this price tag for Sam Travis tonight. We saw Travis towards the end of last season when he got some starts against left-handed pitching. With him being called back up, the number five prospect in the Red Sox organization should draw a start tonight. He had a .408 wOBA with a 18.8% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 48 PAs against lefties last season. Hardy really struggled against righties last season, but he’s been a lot better against them this season. Still, his xFIP and SIERA suggest some regression, so I think the Red Sox could perform well tonight.
Leading Off The High Total Game
If Matt Joyce is back in the leadoff spot tonight, his salary stands out as a strong play in all formats on DK/FDRFT. We know Bartolo Colon is not going to strike out many batters, and Joyce has the power upside to hit home runs and the plate skills to get on base in front of the big bats coming up behind him.
The Spot For Right-Handed Power
Wei-Yin Chen has always struggled with right-handed power as a fly ball lefty with below average strikeouts. So far in 2018, his strikeouts have fallen all the way to 12% while his extreme fly ball lean remains. Almost all of the St. Louis righties are strong plays, but on FanDuel, the salary stands out for Tommy Pham at just $3,500. He has a .246 ISO and .449 wOBA since the start of 2017 against lefties and has run scoring and RBI upside in the middle of this solid lineup.
Immense Power Upside
Like Joey Gallo on the other side, Olson is a higher strikeout bat than I’d normally want as a Core Play, but this is the right type of matchup to get in on his immense power. Bartolo Colon has almost no strikeout ability against lefties and does nothing to limit hard contact. Olson has a .253 ISO against righties since last season and has heated up recently with four homers in the past five games. This is the high total game of the night in 90+ degree heat in Texas and balls should be flying.
Boom/Bust Value Play
Tonight we get another talented Dodgers prospect making his Major League debut. This isn’t the best matchup, but I don’t love a lot of pitching options on this slate. Ferguson started the season in AA and posted a 3.72 xFIP with a 25.8% strikeout rate in 39 innings. He struggled a lot with walks in his two AAA starts, and that’s the biggest concern for me tonight. That said, I like the strikeout upside in this spot, and if he can keep the walks down, he has a good chance to pay off his price tag. I like Ferguson a little more on FanDuel where he’s a lot cheaper, but I’ll have him on some tournament teams on DraftKings and FantasyDraft as well.
Value Pitcher With Strikeout Upside
Jon Gray comes into tonight’s game with a 5.68 ERA, so I hope that scares people away tonight. His 3.33 SIERA and 3.07 xFIP suggest he’s been pitching a lot better than his ERA. Gray has a .376 BABIP and a 1.48 WHIP, and I would expect both of these numbers to come down. He still has a 12.6% swinging strike rate (career high) and a 26.2% strikeout rate in 2018. The Reds don’t strike out a lot, but I do favor a strikeout pitcher in this matchup. Cincinnati’s projected starters have a .146 ISO with a .331 wOBA this season against right-handed pitching. The middle of the lineup is the biggest concern when targeting the Reds, but I’m willing to take a shot on Gray at this price with limited options on this slate.
Clay Buchholz has looked good against weak competition, but faces the only mid-afternoon offense above four implied runs
The San Francisco Giants (4.22) are the only one of four mid-afternoon offenses above four implied runs. Clay Buchholz has allowed only a single run in each of his three starts and even struck out nine last time out, but that was against the Marlins. His other starts were in Oakland and New York (NL). His non-FIP estimators are around four and he has a league average .316 xwOBA. He hasn’t been bad, but the competition has been suspect and his 89.9 mph aEV with an 11.8% Barrels/BBE are more concerning. Buchholz doesn’t have much of a career platoon split and has even split his 119 HRs allowed almost exactly evenly. Today’s lineup has not yet been confirmed, but among those projected, Buster Posey (110 wRC+, .106 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Andrew McCutchen (125 wRC+, .180 ISO) each exceed a 150 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week and cost less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Clay Buchholz