DFS Alerts
Mike Foltynewicz has just a 9.1 SwStr% and costs much more than any other pitcher on DraftKings
Mike Foltynewicz has just a 9.1 SwStr% behind his 28.2 K%. It’s an unsustainable situation. He also has a significant platoon split. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA around 50 points higher than RHBs for both this season and since last year. However, Eric Hosmer (161 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is really the only San Diego bat worth worrying about, though Cory Spangenberg sneaks up with a 120 wRC+ and .206 ISO. Lineups have not yet been confirmed for this game, but this is a high upside spot for Folty, where the SwStr% and platoon splits are less of a concern. The Padres have an 84 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs RHP. The problem is that Foltynewicz costs an absurd $11.6K on DraftKings, $1.6 more than the second most expensive pitcher. He’s much more viable on FanDuel, where he’s just the third most expensive pitcher for $9K.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Cory Spangenberg
Dylan Bundy leads the afternoon slate in strikeout rate (28.3%) and HRs allowed (15 last seven starts)
Dylan Bundy is a high risk, high reward pitching option on Wednesday afternoon. He has a board high 28.3 K% and 14.9 SwStr% (30.2% and 13.8% over the last month), but has also allowed 15 HRs over his last seven starts! Even more surprisingly, while LHBs have a .392 wOBA some 89 points higher than RHBs this year, RHBs have 11 of his 16 HRs surrendered this season. Bundy is the second highest priced pitcher on FanDuel ($9.1K), but is $3.9K cheaper than Mike Foltynewicz on DraftKings. Facing an ice cold team (45 wRC+, 5.6 HR/FB last seven days) in a great pitching environment makes him an arm that should be considered today. However, the Mets (4.06) are one of just four teams above four implied runs this afternoon. One has to consider that they may leave the yard multiple times against Bundy and each of the first seven batters have at least a .167 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year with only Adrian Gonzalez (93) below a 110 wRC+. However, neither of the two RHBs in that group are above a .175 ISO. Each of the first four LHBs in the lineup are above a .200 ISO with Brandon Nimmo (164 wRC+, .250 ISO) the best in both categories. He’s the only batter in the lineup above $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo Zack Wheeler has a 26.4 K% over the last month and third lowest aEV on the board for the entire day
Zack Wheeler was through six shutout innings in his last start. The seventh started with a single to right, a grounder through the vacated shortstop spot on a hit and run and then the bullpen allowed each of his two runners to score. Wheeler has a 26.4 K% over the last month and an 85.9 mph aEV on the season that’s third best on the board for the entire day. He’s pitched exactly six innings in five of his last six starts now and faces a Baltimore offense without a DH in an extremely negative run environment. The Orioles have a 71 wRC+ and 19.7 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+ and 18.2 K-BB% vs RHP, and 64 wRC+ and 25.4 K-BB% over the last week. Wheeler costs less than $8K on either site and is the top value play at pitcher on the afternoon slate.
Bryce Harper is unlikely to see many pitches with the platoon advantage against the Rays
Just a 4.27 implied run line this afternoon still has the Nationals as the second highest of ten teams. Jonny Venters will start the game for Rays and it is thought Ryan Yarbrough will pitch the majority of it with perhaps another RHP in there at some point to face Rendon and Reynolds perhaps. It’s unlikely Bryce Harper (99 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) sees many pitches with the platoon advantage today. Rendon (140 wRC+, .261 ISO) is the top hitter in the lineup against LHP, hitting right behind Harper, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Rays handle that situation, but he may be the top play in the lineup (under $4K on either site too) as he hits RHP well also.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Yarbrough, Jonny Venters Edwin Encarnacion (151 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year) faces a reverse split, low strikeout, HR prone RHP this afternoon
Cleveland not only has the top run line on the afternoon slate (4.86), they’re the only team even above 4.3 runs. Chase Anderson hasn’t struck out more than five batters since his first start. Over the last month, he has just a 13.6 K% with an ERA and SIERA both well above five. He’s allowed 13 HRs in 11 starts despite a 27.9% 95+ mph EV that’s best on the board for the entire day! Never the less, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (34.7 GB%), who doesn’t miss many bats, facing a high powered offense in a positive run environment. He’s split his HRs fairly evenly. RHBs have six, but a .351 wOBA 38 points higher than LHBs. Edwin Encarnacion (151 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be the most interesting bat in the lineup. The top three lefties are high quality plays as well: Francisco Lindor (122 wRC+, .254 ISO), Michael Brantley (140 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .323 ISO).
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Chase Anderson, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley Tanner Roark (at least six innings in all but one start) is the afternoon safety valve
Tanner Roark is never the most exciting name on a slate, but he generally producing quality innings (one of just two pitchers on the afternoon slate averaging more than six innings per start over the last two calendar year) and a league average strikeout rate (21%). His opponents, the Rays, are the only offense Vegas has below three and a half runs (3.23). Failing to go at least six innings just once this season, Roark can be looked at as a safety valve in the $8K range, among several pitcher with perhaps more upside, but also more risk. That said, the Rays are cheap. No batter rises above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. Johnny Field (78 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a team leading 155 wRC+ over the last week and finds himself in the leadoff spot today. He’s the lowest priced bat in the lineup on FanDuel. Beware that he has just a .227 xwOBA against RHP though and RHBs have just a .265 wOBA against Roark since last season.
Other tagged players: Johnny Field One of the afternoon's top pitchers has struggled since striking out 14 Brewers
Carlos Carrasco is the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel ($9.4K), but is off the top spot by $1.6K on DraftKings. Recent efforts have been a struggle. In fact, since striking out 14 batters in a complete game in Milwaukee, he’s allowed at least three runs in four straight starts with five HRs. He allowed 11 runs over his last 9.1 IP, striking out a season low two Twins last time out. His 23.4 K%, while respectable, is well behind a couple of pitchers on the afternoon slate. Though his estimators remain stably below four and his .320 xwOBA is league average, this is not peak Carrasco. On a slate where only one offense is above 4.3 implied runs, it could be profitable to pick and choose batters from teams on the lower end of the spectrum. The first six batters in the Milwaukee order have at least a 110 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Travis Shaw combines a 136 wRC+ with a .281 ISO over that span. Christian Yelich a 135 wRC+ with a .189 ISO. Those are bats players are going to have to pay up for though. At $3K or less, Domingo Santana has a 124 wRC+ and .206 ISO vs same-handed pitching. Carrasco has a small standard platoon split. Lefties have a .303 wOBA (.312 xwOBA) and 33.2 Hard% against him since last year, while righties are at a .283 wOBA (.296 xwOBA) and 29.8 Hard%. The ground ball rate is at 43% for either side.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Carlos Carrasco, Domingo Santana Ozuna Looks to Stay Hot vs Chen
After getting off to a slow start, Cardinals fans have to be relieved to see Marcell Ozuna’s bat finally heating up. In his last four games, Ozuna has been on base 10 times with 8 hits, 2 HRs, and 6 RBIs. Today, Ozuna squares off against Wei-Yen Chen, a lefty who has allowed a .341 wOBA to RHH thus far this season. This aligns well with Ozuna’s career splits where he has hit lefties well, to the tune of a .356 career wOBA against southpaws. His price across the industry still hasn’t quite caught up to his performance as of late, making Ozuna a solid “ride-the-hot-hand” option tonight against his former team.
The Right Matchup For The Power
I don’t typically like someone with this high of a strikeout rate as a Core Play, but this is an ideal matchup for a hitter like Joey Gallo. Daniel Mengden is striking out just 12.9% of lefties this season, limiting the risk on the one downside of Gallo. Sure, he’s still a K risk, but the power is too immense to overlook, with a .315 ISO against righties and a HR once every 11.3 AB since the start of 2017. This is the high total game of the night, Gallo should see plenty of RBI opportunities to go along with his home run upside.
Rockies in a Great Spot vs Romano
While some tend to simply ignore the Rockies when they’re playing away from Coors, tonight may be a great opportunity to roster them at lower ownership than they deserve on the road against the blowup-prone Sal Romano. Romano has struggled against both sides of the plate this season, but especially to lefties, where he has an 11% BB-rate compared to only a 13% K-rate. This helps explain his .405 wOBA allowed to LHH so far, which sets up Charlie Blackmon as the obvious stand-out play. In what is one of the stranger stats of the season so far, the Rockies as a team have actually hit 42 HRs on the road this year, compared to only 30 HRs at Coors. While the Coors HR count will no doubt rise over time, look for them to add a few more to the road total tonight in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez One of Two Up Top
There is not a standout must play ace, but we have two pitchers who top the ranks tonight with Aaron Nola and Shohei Ohtani. Both have strong skills and have over 30% strikeouts over the past month. While I am more confident overall in the skills and track record of Nola, the matchup swings things slightly towards Ohtani tonight. It’s not an ideal strikeout matchup, but the Royals have so little power to hurt him with. Kansas City currently ranks 28th in ISO against righties, and though their overall strikeout rate is low, tonights projected lineup is just a shade better than average, and this will be the first time these hitters have ever seen Ohtani, so he could get an extra edge in his first time through the lineup. It’s a 1 and 1-A with Ohtani and Nola tonight.
Stack 'Em Up Against a Bad Pitcher
Ian Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher who has really been struggling of late, and his numbers have slowly been regressing for the better part of three seasons now. Mike Trout is an obvious choice this evening if you have the salary to fit him in, but the other Angels’ hitters are intriguing as well. With both Albert Pujols and Andrelton Simmons sidelined, we get an opportunity to get some other hitters in the middle of the order at reasonable price tags. Luis Valbuena should be in a prime lineup spot against a pitcher that he matches up well against, and he’s my sneaky call for a home run this evening.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Luis Valbuena
Targeting the Power Bats
I normally don’t stack against Bartolo Colon, as he doesn’t walk anyone and it is difficult to string hits together against a pitcher who allows so many fly balls. However, the A’s match up well against him with all their left-handed power, and they have the ability to make it a short night for the veteran pitcher. Khris Davis and Matt Olson lead the way with hefty ISO numbers against RHP, while the full stack is also in play in the event that they can make this a short night for Colon.
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis A Fine Stack Against a Struggling Pitcher
The Cardinals line up as an affordable stack tonight, and that will help you to be able to spend up on your pitching and other hitting options. Chen has been nothing short of awful on the mound for the Marlins this year, and there are plenty of ways to attack him. Marcell Ozuna finally hit a pair of home runs at Busch Stadium over the weekend, and he has the revenge narrative in play against his former team. Yadier Molina is back from the disabled list and carries a reasonable price tag, while Tommy Pham is your highest upside option on this team. The combination of price and matchup makes the Cardinals an attractive team to target this evening.
Other tagged players: Yadier Molina, Tommy Pham A Fine GPP Pitching Choice
Flaherty wasn’t at his best in his last start against the Pirates, but he still has solid overall numbers, and he draws a friendly matchup with the offensively-starved Marlins tonight. The Cardinals also need innings out of Flaherty after Carlos Martinez didn’t go very deep into last night’s game. His near 27% strikeout rate and sub 7% walk rate are both solid, and it’s hard to envision the Marlins dealing too much damage this evening.