DFS Alerts
He's Better Than the Numbers Show
Jon Gray currently carries an ugly 5.68 ERA, but he is not nearly as bad as that number would indicate. He has been the victim of a ridiculous .376 opposing BABIP and many starts at Coors Field. At least he gets a road start tonight, even though it is in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Gray still carries a healthy 26.2% strikeout rate, and his SIERA and xFIP are both about two and a half full runs better than his ERA. Better times are ahead, and this is a great spot to buy low in GPP formats.
Start of Tuesday's LAD-PIT game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Ross Stripling not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game should play through with no issues following this initial weather stoppage.
As reported by: Bill Plunkett via Twitter
The Angels (only west coast team above four implied runs) are likely to see a lot of a poor KC bullpen behind Brad Keller
The Angels (4.6) are the only one of six west coast teams tonight with an implied run line above four. They’ll take on the Kansas City bullpen (4.97 FIP, 8.2 K-BB%) in a game that will be started by Brad Keller, who had previously thrown 22 major league innings in relief this year before lasting three innings in his first major league start. The 22 year-old Keller had just a 9.3 K-BB% in 130.2 AA innings last season prior to getting the call this year. In fact, he last surpassed a 20 K% in more than six innings back in rookie ball in 2013. Considering that the Royals will be mixing and matching for the majority of the game most likely, the best choices are probably a cheap leadoff hitter like Ian Kinsler (84 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who has a 245 wRC+ over the last week, or guys who hit both lefties and righties well. That list includes Mike Trout (185 wRC+, .331 ISO), obviously, and Justin Upton (115 wRC+, .217 ISO), who also has a wRC+ above 200 (216) over the last week. Unfortunately, Shohei Ohtani remains out of the lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Brad Keller
Paul Goldschmidt has some big numbers against Madison Bumgarner, including a 95.6 mph aEV in the Statcast era
Paul Goldschmidt doesn’t just destroy mediocre left-handed pitching (195 wRC+, .393 ISO last calendar year), he has some great numbers against some of the best in the game and he’ll be among the first to welcome back Madison Bumgarner this season. One of the few hitters that will be happy to see him, Goldschmidt has some big numbers against the southpaw, including seven extra base hits (three HRs) and a 5.9 K-BB% in 68 PAs against him, which comes out to a .395 wOBA. The balance between parks in Arizona and San Francisco keeps those numbers impressive, but they may be even more so when considering just the Statcast era (since 2015), in which Goldy has a ,515 xwOBA and 95.6 mph aEV against the big lefty. Being Bumgarner’s first start of the season after facing just 28 batters in two rehab starts, it would be surprising if he were to face his nemesis a third time, but potential mound rust could be another factor in favor of a hitter who has owned this pitcher throughout his career.
Other tagged players: Madison Bumgarner Delay potential for one of Tuesday night's top pitchers
Tuesday’s weather forecast is mostly clean, but there are a couple of spots that do have some delay potential, including one with a top pitcher on the mound. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest from Kevin from 6:30 ET until lock on Crunch Time.
LHBs have a .450 wOBA (.434 xwOBA) against Matt Moore since last season
Matt Moore is pitching at home in Texas tonight. The natural inclination would be to stack his opponent and it would be difficult to argue with that approach tonight. The A’s are one of three teams above five implied runs tonight (5.56) and just about every bat in the lineup save the nine hitter (Jonathan Lucroy 33 wRC+ vs LHP last calendar year) is in a position to do some damage tonight. RHBs have a .342 wOBA (.348 xwOBA) against Moore since last season. Chad Pinder (127 wRC+, .380 xwOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) costs just $2.4K on FanDuel. While batters from both sides have a hard hit rate and ground ball rate between 37% and 38.5% against Moore since last season, it’s actually been LHBs that do the most damage against him (.450 wOBA, .434 xwOBA). Matt Olson (105 wRC+, .200 ISO) may be the top play in the lineup. He has a lineup leading 231 wRC+ and 66.7 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Chad Pinder, Matt Moore RHBs had a .357 wOBA with five HRs and a 40.6 Hard-Soft% against Sean Manaea in May
The Rangers have a 4.94 implied run line that has little to do with their own offensive prowess. It’s partially about a great hitting environment and partially about how terrible Sean Manaea has been. He has a 7.18 ERA since the start of May with a 5.64 FIP and 33.6 Hard-Soft%. RHBs have a .357 wOBA with five HRs and a 40.6 Hard-Soft% over that span. They have a .359 xwOBA and 39.8 Hard% against them since last season. Not a single Texas RHB costs more than $4K tonight. Adrian Beltre (162 wRC+, 196 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jurickson Profar (146 wRC+, .298 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (156 wRC+, .273 ISO) are all major bargains in this spot.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos, Sean Manaea Gary Sanchez has four career HRs (22 PAs) against Marco Estrada (five HRs in 12 IP vs Yankees this year)
A Yankee lineup without Aaron Judge has the second highest implied run line on the board (5.59) against Marco Estrada, who has allowed less than three runs in just two starts this year and has already surrendered five HRs to the Yankees in just 12 innings against them this year. This remains an incredibly powerful lineup even in absence of Judge. The lowest ISO against RHP over the last calendar year belongs to Brett Gardner (lineup leading 280 wRC+ last seven days) at .163 without anyone else below .185. Gary Sanchez (114 wRC+, .252 ISO) has been struggling with a -12 wRC+ and 9.1 Hard% over the last week, but has some amazing numbers against Estrada. In 22 PAs, he has four HRs and a .505 xwOBA. Incredibly, those are his only hits against Estrada despite just four strikeouts as well. Estrada does have a significant reverse platoon. RHBs have a .371 wOBA against him since last year with LHBs 61 points lower.
Other tagged players: Marco Estrada, Brett Gardner Zack Eflin has a 25.7 K%, but LHBs continue to punish him (.383 wOBA since 2017)
Zach Eflin has the sixth highest strikeout rate on the board (25.7%) through five starts, but with just a 9.6 SwStr% that puts it on the edge of sustainability. He also has a board worst 46 Z-O-Swing% and has failed to complete five innings in any of his last three starts with a hard hit rate above 40% in each of his last two. Vegas seems to be buying into the latter part of that, gracing the Cubs with a 4.84 run line despite winds blowing in from 10-15 mph at Wrigley tonight. LHBs have destroyed Eflin with a .379 wOBA and three HRs this season and a .383 wOBA (.391 xwOBA) with a 38.2 Hard% since last season. Ben Zobrist (110 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jason Heyward (100 wRC+, .134 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (140 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (138 wRC+, .318 ISO) combine potency with some salary relief in potential stacks tonight.
Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Zach Eflin, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward Brandon Nimmo (167 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is still a bargain on FanDuel ($3.3K)
Alex Cobb has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last six starts and has pitched into the seventh in two of his last three, but has allowed a HR in four straight and has a total of nine strikeouts over his last three starts. The Mets lineup is not a top attack point with a mediocre 4.32 implied run line in a negative run environment, but there are a couple of strong spots here. Brandon Nimmo (167 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is now up to $4.4K on DraftKings, but still much less on FanDuel and continues to go criminally under-owned on a daily basis. (#WriteInNimmo) He has a 232 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last week. LHBs have a .344 xwOBA and 36.6 Hard% against Cobb since last season. Michael Conforto (145 wRC+, .218 ISO) costs less than $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Alex Cobb, Michael Conforto Keep on Keeping on
It seems like the Mets become a viable stack once or twice a week. They have sneaky upside against right-handed pitching (their projected lineup has a .341 xwOBA and a .176 ISO this season) and an excellent matchup against Alex Cobb. In addition to having one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball, he has allowed a .416 xwOBA to lefties this season. Brandon Nimmo not only owns a .457 xwOBA against righties, but he has plenty of speed to go with it. Do yourself a favor and look at Nimmo’s game log over the last couple of weeks.
Ride the Hot Streak until this Third Baseman Cools Down
The Cardinals have a decent implied total, but don’t have enough left-handed hitters to truly take advantage of a matchup against Jose Urena. On the season, he has held righties to a .299 xwOBA, while allowing a .358 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to lefties. Matt Carpenter is the one and only hitter on my radar from St. Louis. After a slow start to the season, he has been on a tear over the last two weeks (.421 xwOBA). He also owns a .399 xwOBA and a .205 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Junior Guerra has an ERA well below his estimators and a wOBA well below his xwOBA
Junior Guerra has 2.65 ERA well below his 4.15 SIERA and even a 3.70 FIP due to a .252 BABIP, 82.5 LOB% and 8.2 HR/FB. An 89.2 mph aEV and 42.5% 95+ mph EV don’t really support the something not seen in his peripherals as his .327 xwOBA is not terrible, but 50 points above his actual mark as well. He also has a .378 xwOBA on the road since last season that’s highest on the board. While he’s held batters from either side to a near league average wOBA since 2017, xwOBA raises that mark to within a point of .350 on both ends. The first four batters in the Cleveland lineup all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .215 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Only Michael Brantley has a wRC+ below 200 among those four over the last week, but he has the highest hard hit rate over that span (70%).
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra Underrated Pitcher in an Underrated Matchup
Hendricks doesn’t get enough credit. If you asked the masses who was the better pitcher between Hendricks and Jon Lester, I bet 90% would say Lester. At this point in their careers, I would lean Hendricks. While he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, he has great control, he induces ground balls, and he limits hard contact. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a .328 xwOBA and a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The best part is that Hendricks is affordable across the industry — $8,000 on FanDuel and $8,300 on DraftKings.
Potential No-Hitter Brewing
Scherzer is the number one pitching option of the slate. While that’s not a hot take by any means, he’s in one of those rare lock and load type of situations. In 12 starts this season, he has a 2.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 39%. He’s pitching at home in a great ballpark and he draws a great matchup against the Rays. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has a .304 xwOBA with a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and that doesn’t even include the numbers for Nathan Eovaldi, who I can’t imagine is a very good hitter. This should be an old-fashioned booty-kicking.