DFS Alerts

Red Sox have the top run line on the board (5.8) against Artie Lewicki (7.6 K-BB%)

Even without Mookie Betts, the Boston Red Sox have the top implied run line on the board (5.8) against Artie Lewicki and the Detroit Tigers. Only two other teams are above five runs. Boston bats will be popular tonight as the absence of Betts makes them a bit cheaper, though it’s hard to call any of the bats in the top half of the lineup cheap. J.D. Martinez (163 wRC+, .365 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is one of the top bats on the board. In 25 major league innings (one start), Lewicki has a 7.6 K-BB% with batters from either side of the plate exceeding a .340 wOBA and xwOBA and 36% hard hit rate. Andrew Benintendi (135 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (119 wRC+, .259 ISO) are top left-handed bats here. Eduardo Nunez (117 wRC+, .165 ISO) is the value play for $3.2K or less. He has a lineup leading 217 wRC+ over the last seven days.

Expectations for Ross Stripling (28 Ks last three starts) should be tempered in Pittsburgh (19.6 K% vs RHP) after facing Phillies and Padres

Ross Stripling costs nearly $10K on DraftKings. He’s struck out 28 of his last 74 batters with a 14+ SwStr% in two straight starts, but what players need to realize is that his last two starts have been against the Phillies and Padres, while his 35.4 K% over the last month comes with just a 10.2 SwStr%. The Pirates strike out much less often than those two teams (19.6%), so expectations should be significantly lowered from that aspect, but it’s not beyond comprehension that he gets in a quality start here. The Pirates have just an 8.4 HR/FB and 6.4 Hard-Soft% at home this season and 9.8 HR/FB vs RHP. Striplings 84.8 mph aEV is third best on the board. Seven innings of quality contact management with a few strikeouts could still pay off an $8.5K price tag on FanDuel, but expectations should be tempered.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Couple of big name starters returning from DL could be in line for short outings tonight

The ideal thing would be to just attack the Kansas City bullpen (4.97 FIP, 8.2 K-BB%) with Brad Keller having started one major league game in which he lasted just three innings last week. Jason Vargas, Matt Moore and C.C. Sabathia are the next pitchers in line, averaging the fewest innings per start. Vargas has been removed after five innings even in his two shutout performances. The Mets bullpen has been poor (4.30 FIP, 13.1 K-BB%), but they are finally rested after a day off on Monday and could be throwing their top arms at a poor Baltimore offense without a DH in a tough NL park. The Texas bullpen hasn’t been bad (3.75 FIP, 12.9 K-BB%), but Moore is the one pitcher we can be sure isn’t limited by design. Damage is being done before he’s leaving the game. Sabathia has the world class Yankee bullpen (3.14 FIP, 22.1 K-BB%) behind him. Two more spots of interest include St Louis and San Francisco with pitchers returning from the DL. The Cardinal bullpen has been bad (4.19 FIP, 11.6 K-BB%), but that shouldn’t matter much aside from perhaps a bat or two for the Marlins. Madison Bumgarner is facing a lineup with some decent right-handed bats. He’ll likely just get his feet wet in his first start tonight with bullpen owning a 3.67 FIP and 13 K-BB% picking up quite a bit of work.

Dallas Keuchel has struggled in tough matchups recently, but has upped his strikeouts over the last month (more cutters)

Some of the more interesting names in the mid-cost range include Dallas Keuchel, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Hendricks and Joe Musgrove. Keuchel has been battered 10 ERs over his last 16 innings and his sinker (.362 xwOBA, 90.5 mph aEV) is a mess. However, he faced either the Yankees or Indians in all three of those starts and has begun to throw a few more cutters (.308 xwOBA, 21.3 Whiff%) in place of his sinker, pulling his strikeout rate up to league average over the last month. Recent performance has dropped his cost to around $8K and while the Mariners are no cakewalk, they have an 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP and he faces them in the most negative run environment in play on Tuesday. Heaney allowed more than two ERs for the first time in seven starts last time out. He’s top third of the board in terms of strikeouts (25%) and aEV (85.8 mph). The Royals both a higher wRC+ (103) and strikeout rate (21.3%) vs LHP. Heaney costs less than $9K on either site. Kyle Hendricks has been getting hit harder (39.1 Hard%), but missing more bats (11.1 SwStr%) over the last month. He’s been throwing a few more curveballs as the sinker has been the trouble-maker, but the real appeal here is the top strikeout upside matchup on the board (Phillies 26.9 K% vs RHP). Joe Musgrove has allowed 1 ER in 14 IP so far. The has a career 15.1 K-BB% and the potential of working deeper into games makes him at least interesting for $7.5K or less, though the Dodgers are no easy assignment (103 wRC+ vs RHP, 133 wRC+ last seven days). Low end compliments to higher priced pitchers on DraftKings could include Jason Vargas (10.7 SwStr%, 85 mph EV)for just $5K against the Orioles (27.5 K-BB% last seven days), who lose a DH in a tough NL park and Jose Urena (20.1 K%), who has league average peripherals and costs just $5.6K in a decent spot in St Louis.

Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber and James Paxton are Tuesday's top pitchers

Five pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site with only two above that mark on both and Patrick Corbin missing by just $100 on DraftKings. Their opponents make up six of the 11 teams at or below 3.75 implied runs tonight. Two of them can probably be fairly easily omitted, fresh off the DL. Neither Carlos Martinez nor Madison Bumgarner have faced many minor league batters in rehab starts, which would suggest abbreviated outings tonight. The shame of that is that Martinez is facing the Marlins and could be useful if there was significant confidence in even six innings. The top of the board consists of Max Scherzer vs the Rays (18.2 K-BB% last seven days) and Corey Kluber vs the Brewers (24.3 K% vs RHP). The former had a massive bounce back game (8 IP – 2 H – 12 K) after being roughed up by the Marlins and is almost always a great choice. The latter has gone at least six innings in every start and has struck out 27 of his last 73 batters without a single walk. James Paxton was unimpressive in Texas (5 IP – 4 BB – 5 K) and has a tough matchup in Houston (115 wRC+ vs LHP), but he costs less than $10.5K in the most negative run environment on the board. In four of his previous five starts, he’d gone at least seven innings, two of them complete games and double digit strikeouts in the other two. Corbin allowed six HRs, including two HRs against the Reds last time out, but did reach double digit strikeouts for the first time in over a month. He’s had at least seven Ks in all but two starts this year. The Giants are predominantly right-handed, but do have a 23.8 K% vs LHP. He’s struck out 17 of them in 14.1 innings in two April starts, but they are the hottest offense on the board (18.4 HR/FB last seven days).

Try Again

Let’s try this one again. Yesterday was a figurative swing and a miss for our Yankees stacks and a literal swing and a miss for Aaron Judge who struck out a total of eight times in nine at bats during Monday’s double-header. Tuesday’s matchup for the Yankees is almost an exact replica of last night’s Game 2 matchup: a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of HRs. While both Estrada and Fiers have given up exactly 1.38 HR/9 for their career, Estrada is even more extreme of a fly ball pitcher with a ground ball rate just north of 33% for his career. The Yankees come in with the top HR projection of the slate and HRs = stacking gold.

Power Stack

Career ISO vs LHP:

Trumbo: .227

Machado: .190

Valencia: .182

Mancini: .177

Schoop: .157

Jones: .149

Jason Vargas versus RHB for his career: 4.62 xFIP, .325 wOBA, 1.25 HR/9

Listing all of that out was more of a thought exercise for me as I always am attracted to an Orioles stack when they face a LHP because despite continually putting up poor numbers as a team, individually they possess above average power against southpaws. Since 2014, when fences were moved in at CitiField, the park has played right around league average for HR power out to left field. So while this is an unfavorable park shift from Camden, it could be worse. Jason Vargas has already given up 6 HRs this year in just 25.1 IP and Baltimore is one of my favorite sneaky stacks of Tuesday’s slate despite a relatively low implied run total (4.2).

Poor Artie

Poor Artie Lewicki (and Tigers bullpen). Bullpen games can be a little tough to figure out but the Tigers game plan seems pretty straightforward in this contest: start Lewicki, follow him up with Buck Farmer, and follow Farmer up with more RHP. Unless I’m missing a recent transaction, the Tigers don’t have a left handed reliever on their active roster. That means no need to worry about losing the platoon advantage with your left-handed Boston bats as the Red Sox will be facing average to below average right handed pitching all night long. The Red Sox unsurprisingly are tied for the highest implied run total on the slate (5.6) and are set up for strong offensive production on Tuesday night.

Fall From Grace

It’s been a hard fall from grace for Sean Manaea as he’s failed to pitch at least six innings in four of his last five starts. Manaea was undeniably over-performing his skill-set to start the season but now we’re at the point where sites have over corrected and there’s value in Manaea’s cheap price tag in a favorable matchup. Unfortunately Tuesday’s game will take place in hitter friendly Arlington with temps approaching the 90’s but if you strip out the contextual factors, this is a strong matchup for Manaea as the Rangers have the fourth highest strikeout rate in the league versus LHP (25.3%) and own a slightly below average 94 wRC+. Manaea’s strikeout totals have been rough his past handful of starts but there is some upside here – heck, he’s top 30+ DK points twice this year, one game being his no-hitter against the Red Sox where he posted 53.1 DK points.

Atypical

Typically when choosing a GPP pitcher the category you want to chase most is strikeouts. In that sense, rostering Keuchel in GPP’s is a bit atypical – he’s never been a high strikeout guy (career 19.5% strikeout rate) and this isn’t a great (21.1 K% vs LHP) strikeout matchup against the Mariners. What makes Keuchel attractive is his price tag and his ability to pitch deep into games. Keuchel has thrown 6+ innings in seven of his last ten starts and 7+ innings in five of those. Longevity doesn’t do a whole lot to contribute to fantasy totals but it does provide some room for a positive return on Keuchel’s price tag even if he’s unable to post gaudy strikeout totals.

Great Value On FanDuel

I really like Oakland tonight, as they’re way underpriced on FanDuel. Pinder and Chapman both present a lot of value at their price tags. Pinder has crushed left-handed pitching this season, as he has a .384 wOBA with a .557 CXwOBA and a 70.4% hard hit rate. His average exit velocity and average distance are both well above average, and outside of his strikeout rate, he’s been elite against lefties. Matt Moore has a .385 wOBA with a .185 ISO and a 45.7% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. This is also going to be one of the hottest days we’ve had in Texas all season, so I’m loading up on Oakland.

Attack With This Team

When looking at the Angels tonight, we’re not looking at the Royals starting pitcher. We’re looking at that awful bullpen. This is going to be a bullpen game for the Royals, as I wouldn’t expect Keller to go more than 50 pitches. The Royals bullpen has a 4.57 xFIP, which is ranked 30th in MLB this season. They also have the second-highest HR/9 and the second highest WHIP. Kinsler is off to a slow start but should hit leadoff and his been a lot better at the plate recently. He’s 12 for his last 38 with three home runs in his last 10 games. I love the value at second base, and the Angels as a whole tonight should have no problem scoring runs.

Great Value Option

I really don’t think people realize how good Adam Duvall has been against left-handed pitching this season. He has a .320 ISO with a .416 CXwOBA and a 94.4 mph average exit velocity. He also has a very high hard-hit rate (58.1%) and a high fly ball rate (61.3%). Freeland has done an excellent job limiting the hard contact this season, and he has an above average ground ball rate. The ISO is at .170 against righties this season, and the well hit rate is almost 12%. In his short career, Duvall has much better numbers against groundball pitchers — he’s one of my favorite plays tonight.

Safer Option In This Spot

Andrew Heaney is right in the middle of the top end options and the really cheap options. He draws a good matchup against the Royals and sets up as a safer option tonight. Merrifield, Soler, and Perez have hit left-handed pitching well this season, but outside of that, this team has struggled with lefties. Soler and Perez both have strikeout rates over 25% against lefties this season as well. Heaney has posted a 3.82 SIERA in 51.2 innings this season, and he has a 11.5% swinging strike rate with a 25% strikeout rate. We’re starting to see a healthy Heaney; he’s pitched at least five innings in eight of his nine starts this season, and he also has at least five strikeouts in seven of those nine starts.

Attack The Most Attackable Pitcher

The surface stats for Jay Bruce are ugly, but there is a lot to like under the surface here. But before even looking for positive signs from Bruce, we can look at the attackable skills of Alex Cobb who has the third lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball and no ability to control batted balls to lefties. Back to Bruce, he has started slowly, but his hard hits have been creeping up and he has a 52% hard hit rate over the past 14 days. He is also showing an improved eye at the plate with just 16.6% strikeouts and 11% walks against righties. He has home run power and a high likelihood of balls in play against the hittable Cobb at a very low salary on DK/FDRFT.