DFS Alerts

They're All Pretty Great Pitchers on Friday

No single pitcher falls below $9K on Fanduel today, while DraftKings pitchers run a $5.3K to $9.8K range. Just keep in mind that when a win today and tomorrow ends each of these series, managers should and probably will more aggressively hook starters in the post-season. The most expensive pitcher on the slate ($10.8K FD) costs nearly $3K less on DK ($6.9), Alek Manoah enters this game as the pitcher with an ERA (2.24) furthest removed from his estimators (3.31 xERA to a 3.98 xFIP). He’s obviously benefitted from a 31.5% hard hit rate and 5.4% Barrels/BBE that were of his own making and a 22.9 K% (16.4 K-BB%) aren’t poor by any stretch, but a .246 BABIP, six unearned runs and 82.6 LOB% were far less under his control and rates he may not sustain. Manoah did finish up with eight straight Quality Starts though, four of them at least seven innings, allowing just five barrels (3.6%) over this span. The Toronto defense was fine (6 Runs Prevented), but Alejandro Kirk was actually one of the best catchers in the league by CDA (12.1 was third best), which is a counting stat. As far as Seattle goes, they’ve been good (106 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 12.6 HR/FB), but sort of just middle of the board today. There are no easy ones. The Seattle lineup is banged up a bit and has struggled in the second half. In fact, they were bottom half of the league against every pitch type Fangraphs tracks since the break, while Manoah graded much better than average on all four of his (four-seam, sinker, slider, changeup). There is not currently a projection showing for Manoah in LineupHQ, but we might suspect it being near the middle to bottom of the board and obviously a much better value on DraftKings.

Tied for second most expensive on FD ($10.6K) and most expensively on DK ($9.8K), while Max Scherzer tied a career high (2020) with 8.4% Barrels/BBE, the old man also tops today’s board in strikeout rate (30.6%) with the lowest walk rate (4.2%). The park also helped keep 17 of his 30 barrels in the yard. The high barrel rate was probably mostly a function of a 31.1 GB%, as his 33.9% hard hit rate was third best on the board. The 83.3% strand rate merits some regression. His 2.29 ERA was at least one-third of a run below estimators ranging from a 2.62 FIP to a 3.23 xFIP. The Mets have a good defense (8 Runs Prevented), but not that good. The Padres represent one of the more favorable matchups on the board today, especially considering the park. San Diego had a 101 wRC+ and 22.0 K% vs RHP. Scherzer’s slider (23.2%, -3.5 RV/100, 46.2 Whiff%) was a top 20 pitch in the league by accumulated Run Value (-18) and coincidentally, the only pitch the Padres really struggled with after the break (-0.19 wSL/C). Also, Tomas Nido was the second best defensive catcher in the league this year (16.9 CDA) and that’s a counting stat. Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the board and top projected FanDuel value (just a middling DK value).

Tied with Scherzer on FD and $500 cheaper on DK, you probably haven’t heard much about Shane Bieber’s velocity since April because it hasn’t been a problem. It’s even risen since early in the season, but remaining below previous years, he just reduced his fastball usage (it was his worst graded pitch via Statcast at 0.1 RV/100) and everything has worked out fine. Bieber finished the season allowing more than two runs in just two of his last 13 starts with at least seven outings in eight of those. He failed to produce six innings, only in his last start. Striking out exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced and walking just 4.6% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), an 89.9 mph EV didn’t hurt so much. There was a bit of a falter over the last month of the season, but a 13.0 SwStr% and .303 xwOBA suggest he pitched much better than results. His 2.88 ERA was a near perfect match for his FIP (2.87), but only more than one-third of a run below a 3.51 xERA. Two additional facets in his favor are that the Cleveland defense was fifth best in the league this year (14 Runs Prevented) and Austin Hedges was the fifth best defensive catcher (11.4 CDA, which is a counting stat). The Rays finished with a 99 wRC+ and board high 24 K% vs RHP. Their 94 road wRC+ and 23.5 road K% are both board worsts as well. Additionally, Bieber will be taking his slider (28.8%, -1.3 RV/100, 39.4 Whiff%, .234 wOBA, .237 xwOBA) against the worst offense against sliders since the break (-1.35 wSL/C). He projects as the second best pitcher on the board currently (though that is subject to change), but as just a middling FanDuel value and the worst DraftKings one. Understand that value projections run a much narrower range today though.

Third most expensive on DK (fourth on FD), Yu Darvish failed to go at least six innings twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second rate strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. He’s also making a shift from one pitcher’s park to another tonight, where elevated contact should continue to not punish him, though his barrel rate is pretty easily highest on the board and he’s facing the most dangerous offense with a board high 119 wRC+ vs RHP and board low 19.6 K% against them. The San Diego defense is the best on the board too though (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league), so he pretty much just has to keep it in the park. Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast, but the one he threw most often was the cutter (35.3%, -0.6 RV/100, 25.6 Whiff%), which, coincidentally, was the only pitch the Mets really struggled against in the second half (-0.41 wFC/C). Darvish projects as a middle of the board arm, but third from the bottom value on either site right now. We’ll cover the remaining four pitchers in the next post.

A Pair of Left on Left Bats Project Strongly Despite Tough Park

We don’t yet have team run totals on Thursday night, but let’s just assume no offense is going to be above four and a half implied runs with the Blue Jays and Mets possibly being the only ones reaching even four runs. However, despite potentially the most negative run environment on the board (depending upon weather), Bryce Harper (117 wRC+, .171 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected batter on the board even on a left on left matchup (LHBs .258 wOBA, .268 xwOBA against Jose Quintana this year). RHBs have been about average against Quintana (.293 wOBA, .312 xwOBA). Rhys Hoskins (162 wRC+, .272 ISO), Kyle Schwarber (94 wRC+, .193 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (125 wRC+, .191 ISO) join Harper as top 10 projected bats by PlateIQ.

Only two other offenses project a pair of top 10 bats tonight, one pair on FanDuel and one pair on DraftKings. Drop down one spot further though and each team has two of the top 11 batters. The second best projected bat on the board is Julio Rodriguez (148 wRC+, .233 ISO), even though Alek Manoah has held RHBs to a .208 wOBA and .231 xwOBA. This probably has some to do with his spot in the lineup and the Blue Jays having one of the weaker bullpens on the board (using estimators over the last 30 days). Another RHB, Ty France (130 wRC+, .179 ISO) is the next best projected Mariner. The Mariners have taken to stacking RHBs atop the lineup recently, though LHBs have a .302 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against Manoah.

The third best projected bat on the board, despite another firmly negative run environment, is Francisco Lindor (128 wRC+, .176 ISO) against Yu Darvish, who has actually been better against LHBs this year (.239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA). Pete Alonso (145 wRC+, .253 ISO) also shows up towards the back end of the top 11 projections. RHBs had a .284 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against Darvish this season.

Tommy Pham scratched Wednesday

Jonathan India (foot) scratched Wednesday

Jonathan India (foot) scratched Wednesday

Thairo Estrada scratched Wednesday

Thairo Estrada scratched Wednesday

This Lineup Projects to Smash the Slate More than Twice Any Other

Please check back on stacking projections at your latest convenience before lock, as we’re still trying to unravel some late pitching and lineup decisions, but as of now the Dodgers project to be the most popular stack on the board with a bit larger of a gap on FanDuel between they and the Astros, who project to be the second most popular stack on either site. Both teams have already released lineups that include most of their regulars, though we can’t be sure they’ll play the entire game. The Dodgers also project to smash the slate most often, more than twice as often as the team that projects to do so second most often, the Seattle Mariners against Tyler Alexander. RHBs have a .383 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against Austin Gomber and LHBs are below .300, so aside from perhaps Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, that’s probably the side you’ll want most of your Dodgers to bat from. The Detroit Tigers currently project as the top DraftKings value stack by a decent margin and they’ll be seeing a lot of Marco Gonzales (batters from either side of the plate above a .325 wOBA), who is on a mission to keep the bullpen fresh for the wild card series. Detroit is a bit behind the Cubs and Minnesota, who project as the top FanDuel value stacks.

The Dodgers are currently the top rated stack on either site with the thinking that they’ll smash the slate more often then they’re owned with players potentially paying up for Ohtani or Burnes and being unable to afford full on Dodger stacks. On FanDuel, the Mariners currently project the second best Leverage Rating. As mentioned, their Smash projection is second behind the Dodgers today, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .371 wOBA and xwOBA against Alexander. The already confirmed Seattle lineup includes Ty France, Carlos Santana, Curt Casali and Julio Rodriguez all with a 120+ wRC+ vs RHP this year. Again, though, we can’t be sure they’ll all get a full complement of plate appearances.

Currently the second best rated stack on DraftKings, the Mets face Erick Fedde, who has a 7.00 ERA/6.02 FIP/5.04 FIP over his last 10 starts with a 4.2 K-BB% and 91.0 mph EV. He’s allowed fewer than three runs just three times over this span. His best season estimator is a 4.70 xFIP. There is some weather in the area and the lineup is not yet confirmed. It may include Francisco Alvarez behind the plate, who is not projected, but hit a moonshot for his first major league home run last night and followed with a rocket double to the left field wall. Again, make sure to check back after all lineups are confirmed, as things could look very different.

Jose Miranda scratched Wednesday

Jose Miranda scratched Wednesday

Plenty of Value Bats in This Park

Should you be paying up for either of the top projected arms (Ohtani and Burnes) and/or Dodgers, you’ll also need some value bats. This is going to be tougher to navigate than usual because there will likely be a lot of cheaper bats in lineups that haven’t even been projected, so make sure check actual confirmed lineups and use this as somewhat of a loose guide on which general spots to attack. The most interesting thing is that both Jake Fraley (133 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this season) and Jonathan India (93 wRC+, .142 ISO) project as top overall bats and FanDuel values. According to Statcast, Cincinnati is on par with Coors as one of the most positive run environments in the league. Also in the already confirmed Reds’ lineup, Stuart Fairchild (96 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Donovan Solano (92 wRC+) project as top DraftKings values. RHBs have a .325 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against Sampson, while LHBs exceed a .320 xwOBA too.

Again, due to park environment, we’re also finding plenty of Cubs among the top projected values against Graham Ashcraft (RHBs .389 wOBA, .342 xwOBA). Zach McKinstry (78 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Ian Happ (119 wRC+, .180 ISO) project as top FanDuel values. Happ projects as a top 10 overall bat as well. Franmil Reyes (79 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Alfonso Rivas (98 wRC+) project as top DraftKings values. (Late edit: the Chicago lineup has just been released and only Rivas is not in it, but the general idea is that cheap RHBs will do.)

We also find a pair of Twins in the confirmed lineup projecting as top FanDuel values against young Davis Martin, against whom LHBs (.312 wOBA, .330 xwOBA) have done better than RHBs (.288 wOBA, .305 xwOBA). Gary Sanchez (94 wRC+, .180 ISO) projects as the best FanDuel value on the board, with Nick Gordon (126 wRC+, .177 ISO) not far behind.

This Already Confirmed Lineup Projects Best on the Final Regular Season Slate

Lineups are flying in as this is being written. It would be impossible to keep up on all of them and get this information out before lock, so make sure to check that all players mentioned below are actually playing. Teams playing on Friday may be most likely to rest regulars. No offense reaches five implied runs on a 14 game slate, but the Dodgers come closest (4.98) with on other team reaching four and a half, but that information is less useful today than it usually is. The good news is that the Dodgers have already confirmed a fairly standard lineup that includes Mookie Betts (177 wRC+, .305 ISO vs LHP this season), Trea Turner (149 wRC+, .247 ISO), Freddie Freeman (126 wRC+, .146 ISO) and Will Smith (158 wRC+, .220 ISO) as top 10 projected bats against Austin Gomber (RHBs .383 wOBA, .351 xwOBA – LHBs below .300). We just can’t promise they’ll play the entire game.

The only other lineup including multiple top 10 projected bats (also already confirmed) is…the Cincinnati Reds? Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 xwOBA against Adrian Sampson this year and it is the most hitter friendly environment on the slate. Jake Fraley (133 wRC+, .228 ISO) actually projects as the top bat on this large board, while Jonathan India (93 wRC+, .142 ISO) lands inside the top 10 as well.

Pay Down Options Include Pitcher Whose Job Today is to Save the Bullpen

Paying up for Ohtani or Burnes may be the best idea, but perhaps paying down for pitching is a good idea too with uncertain workloads around the league. Current projections for FanDuel suggest that only two of the top 9 values (the two guys just mentioned) cost more than $8K. You’re taking a big chance playing them on a single pitcher site, but you’re already taking a big chance when you decided to play today, but these kind of chaotic slates might be the most profitable for those who put in the work. Mike Clevinger ($7.3K) is the top projected FanDuel value. He’s finally reawakened from a long slump, allowing a single run or less in two of his last three starts, but has struck out just 10 of his last 87 batters and just 18.8% with 9.5% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected San Francisco lineup averages a 24.8 K% vs RHP this season. Clevinger currently projects as the fifth best DraftKings value at a similar cost.

Marco Gonzales’s stated purpose in this game (by his manager) is to soak up as many innings as possible to save the bullpen for the wild card series in two days. This makes him more interesting than he would normally be. Unless something drastic happens, you’ll almost certainly be getting the workload portion of a Quality Starts (if the Mariners are to be believed). However, consider that he has four less strikeouts than deGrom in 20 more starts. The two pitchers in this game combine for a 26.9 K% when added together with Gonzales contributing the lower portion of that (13%). While he’s managed contact well enough (87.1 mph EV, 7.2% Barrels/BBE), he allows so much contact that he’s still allowed 43 barrels (30 home runs) on the year. His 4.14 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators. The Tigers have a 101 wRC+, 22.3 K% and just 8.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Costing $7.9K on both sites, the workload projects Gonzales as the better value on FanDuel (second) than DraftKings (11th).

Second consecutive “Revenge Game” for Johan Oviedo, who produced a Quality Start against his old team last time out with just two runs and four strikeouts. He did allow his first home run on five barrels (7.0%) in six starts for the Pirates with an above average 23.3 K%, but also a 13.8 BB%. He has a 3.04 ERA/3.60 FIP/4.61 xFIP since the trade. He does have some upside and may not be facing the best Cardinal lineup (projected lineup averages a 21.2 K% vs RHP). Oviedo is within $300 of $6K on either site, projecting as a top eight value on either.

Ken Waldichuk is coming off his best major league start, striking out eight of 19 Mariners to bring him up to a 24 K% through six starts, while four of his nine walks came in his debut. The contact profile remains a problem though. With just a 33.8 GB% and a 44.7 Z-O-Swing%, opponents have barreled up 15% of their contact against him with a 90.8 mph EV and 46.3% hard hit rate. While his 6.18 ERA is well above all estimators, a 5.15 xERA would be the closest, though he now has a contact neutral estimator below four (3.87 SIERA). The Angels have an 87 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs LHP and Waldichuk has a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), costing just $5.2K on DK.

Domingo German has struck out 13 of his last 48 batters, but still has just an 18.5 K% on the season. On the positive side, he doesn’t walk many (6.5%) and has allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. With a .251 BABIP and 78.6 LOB%, estimators ranging from a 3.92 xERA to a 4.53 DRA are well above his 3.31 ERA. A changeup (23.3%, -1.5 RV/100) and curveball (37%, -0.7 RV/100) approach should work against the Rangers (91 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP), who have struggled against both pitches since the break (-0.16 wCH/C, -0.62 wCB/C). Costing less than $8K, perhaps German is auditioning for a post-season role here.

Aaron Civale has struck out 14 of 59 batters with a single walk since returning from the IL, allowing two home runs, but just a single barrel (2.3%). The contact profile had been a major issue through most the season, but he’s now down to 7.9% Barrels/BBE to go with a 17.7 K-BB%. He has a 5.04 ERA (60.5 LOB%), but not a single estimator above four. We could be concerned about his workload against the Royals (89 wRC+, 21.8 K%, 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but not his price, within $100 of $8K on either site.

Attempting to Navigate the Top of the Final Full Pitching Board

Congratulations to all the hardcore daily fantasy baseball players reading this for making it to the very end of the regular season. The final full slate includes 14 games all starting at the same time on a Wednesday afternoon in the name of competitive integrity and none of them mean a darn thing. We still don’t even know who’s pitching some of these games (TBD is going to be a very busy pitcher today), while lineups that we’re merely guessing at will become clearer shortly. Look for players with personal goals and perhaps avoid players from teams playing in the wild card round.

The most expensive pitcher on the board is…no, he’s no longer pitching. Neither is he. The new most expensive arm on the board on either site, Shohei Ohtani has completed at least seven innings in three of his last six starts with a total of four runs allowed and just two barrels (2.2%). He’s even allowed just 22 hits over these 40 innings. With a 33.1 K% (26.4 K-BB%) and 87.1 mph EV (33.6% 95+ mph EV) on the season, all estimators are well within half a run of his 2.35 ERA. He ends the season in a great spot in Oakland (83 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP) and is essentially tied for the top projection on the board with the next pitcher with no other pitchers even close. Ohtani also projects as the third (DK) or fourth (FD) best value on the board.

Corbin Burnes most recently threw eight shutout innings at the Marlins with seven strikeouts. It may not be on par with his Cy Young winning 2021, but a 23.7 K-BB% with a 34.4% hard hit rate and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE is nothing to sneeze at. His 2.92 ERA is within half a run of all estimators and within a quarter run of all except a 2.56 DRA. With cooler weather and roof closures in Milwaukee, it’s a more pitcher friendly environment, while the Diamondbacks have a 96 wRC+ and 21.8 K% vs RHP. As mentioned, Burnes is essentially tied with Ohtani for the top projection on the board at a slightly lower cost, which makes him the second best projected value on either site.

The remaining two $10K arms are both going to the post-season, but will have a week off and should get in some decent work here, but probably not their normal workloads. Baltimore snapped Framber Valdez’s Quality Start streak (5.1 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 1 BB – 6 K), but then Tampa Bay did him even worse last time out (5.1 IP – 6 ER – 3 BB – 2 K). He strikes out batters at a slightly above average rate (22.4%), but a 66.9 GB% lets him get away with an 8.2 BB% and still pitch deep into games, while these last two games has brought his now 2.89 ERA much closer to estimators ranging from a 3.06 xFIP to a 3.56 DRA. The Phillies (117 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs LHP) may choose to rest key players for their date with St Louis on Friday. Valdez does project as the third best arm on the board, but far behind Ohtani and Burnes and as a middle of the board value.

Clayton Kershaw has five straight Quality Starts with a total of five runs and three barrels (3.6%) allowed over this span. He’s up to a 22.3 K-BB% on the season, allowing just 4.0% Barrels/BBE with a 33.6% hard hit rate. His 2.30 ERA is only a quarter or a run below a matching 2.56 xERA and FIP. It’s very unlikely he’ll see a full workload tonight. The Rockies actually have a 102 wRC+ with just a 19.8 K% vs LHP, but it’s a near lock that the Dodgers will abbreviate Kershaw here. As such, he projects as tonight’s sixth best arm and a slightly worse value that Valdez.

The only other pitcher reaching $9K on both sites, Merrill Kelly was having a career year, until October hit. All of a sudden, he’s allowed 22 runs, 11 home runs and 15 barrels (17%) over his last five starts. He still has 11 Quality Starts of at least seven innings with two runs or less (Super Quality Start?) with now a 14.2 K-BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE. His 3.43 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.62 xERA/DRA to a 4.03 SIERA. The Brewers have a 108 wRC+, 23.2 K% and 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP. Kelly projects as tonight’s fourth best arm and as a slightly better value than Valdez.

Blue Jays-Orioles postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Blue Jays-Orioles postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

David Peralta (hip) scratched Tuesday

David Peralta (hip) scratched Tuesday

Top Value Stack in Great Spot Against Pitcher With 16.6 K% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE

Similar to Monday, the Dodgers top the board at 5.12 implied runs, but no other team is within a full run of them tonight. They once again project to be around twice as popular as any other stack on either site (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The Dodgers also project to smash the slate over 20% of the time with no other offense much higher than 12% on either site. Projecting as the top value stack on either site are the White Sox, an offense that hasn’t gotten much notice today. Josh Winder entered his last start striking out just 19 of his last 171 batters, but punched out six of 21 White Sox without a walk. Aside from a 16.6 K%, he’s allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE with all estimators more than a quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. The White Sox have the fourth best team total on the board at exactly four runs. The margin by which they project as the top value stack is quite a bit larger on FanDuel than on DraftKings. For more on some interesting stacking scenarios beyond the Dodgers, check out today’s final PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Offense Projects Top Values on Either Site

One of several lists that will probably change once actual lineups are announced, just as Dodgers dominate the overall hitter projections, a full run above any other team total, they also place five batters among the top 10 projected FanDuel values. Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP this year) and Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) project as top bats and FanDuel values for just under $3K against Ryan Feltner (RHBs .370 wOBA, .367 xwOBA – LHBs .326 wOBA, .316 xwOBA). Austin Barnes (108 wRC+, .164 ISO), Cody Bellinger (89 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Trayce Thompson (185 wRC+, .298 ISO) also project as top 10 FD values at varying costs below $3K. Thompson is the only Dodger bat also currently projecting as a top 10 DK value as well.

The only offense projecting multiple top 10 values on both sites is the Tampa Bay Rays. Nathan Eovaldi struck out just three of 19 Orioles with a 5.6 BB% with a concerning velocity drop further from the velocity loss he suffered before hitting the IL. While Eovaldi has produced an 18.1 K-BB%, the contact profile has been a disaster this year (10.8% Barrels/BBE, 46% 95+ mph EV). He has a bit of a reverse spilt, this year, but batters from either side of the plate are between a .317 and .339 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Ji-Man Choi (109 wRC+, .157 ISO) projects as one of the top two values on either site for less than $2.5K. David Peralta (114 wRC+, .180 ISO) is a top FanDuel value for just $2.1K and Jonathan Aranda (99 wRC+, .154 ISO) is a top DraftKings value for $100 more.

The only other offense projecting multiple top 10 value on either site are the Oakland A’s on DraftKings. Michael Lorenzen generates more than half his contact on the ground, but LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against him. Conner Capel (157 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Seth Brown (130 wRC+, .234 ISO) cost no more than $2.6K.