DFS Alerts

Top Hitting Environment Contains a Lot of Projected Value

Not only do the Dodgers dominate hitter projections in terms of raw point totals, despite a 3.59 implied run total that still tops a six team board today, but the top three projected values on either site are also Dodgers. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .274 and .285 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and Austin Barnes (103 wRC+, .182 ISO vs LHP this year) is a top two projected value on either site for less than $2.5K. Costing exactly $2.6K on either site, Chris Taylor (73 wRC+, .126 ISO) is the top projected DraftKings value, but also the sixth best projected FanDuel value. Trayce Thompson (78 wRC+, .186 ISO) rounds out the top three DraftKings values for $2.4K. Justin Turner (109 wRC+, .115 ISO) and Will Smith (154 wRC+, .217 ISO) also project as top 10 DK values between $3.5K and $4K. Both are also among the top three FanDuel values, just below Barnes, for $3.1K or less.

The Phillies are the other offense that comes up large in terms of projected value on FanDuel. We don’t know what to expect out of Spencer Strider today. Perhaps it’s just one time through the lineup, but batters from either side of the plate were below a .250 wOBA and .270 xwOBA against him this season. None the less, costing $3.3K or in a couple of cases much, much less, Brandon Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO), Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO), Rhys Hoskins (108 wRC+, .197 ISO) and J.T. Castellanos (129 wRC+, .207 ISO) all project as top 10 FanDuel values. Marsh, less than $3K on both sites, is the only Phillie to project as a top 10 DraftKings value.

DraftKings projections do like a trio of cheap (< $3K) Braves as top value tonight though. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .246 and .281 wOBA and xwOBA against Aaron Nola this year, but Eddie Rosario (64 wRC+, .122 ISO), Orlando Arcia (119 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (108 wRC+, .248 ISO) are cheap in the top hitting environment on the board.

This Offense Still Dominates Projections Below a Four Run Team Total

Fairly surprising, even on a six team board, no offense even comes close to four implied runs on Friday with the Dodgers topping the board with a 3.59 run team total. It’s not a surprise to find four Dodger bats among the top six projected on either site tonight. Blake Snell is volatile enough arm that he’s probably worth rostering in GPP lineups, but also worth attacking with premium Dodger bats where you’re not using him. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .274 and .285 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Of course, we’re looking at the top half of the Dodger order here, which will consist of Mookie Betts (174 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP this year), Freddie Freeman (135 wRC+, .167 ISO, Trea Turner (146 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Will Smith (154 wRC+, .217 ISO).

Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .384 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board against one of the top projected pitchers in Shane Bieber, whom RHBs had a .277 wOBA and .287 xwOBA against this year. With a 3.29 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board, no other Yankees project among the top 10 bats tonight, but Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (125 wRC+, .235 ISO) project among the top 15.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the only offense besides the Dodgers projecting multiple top 10 bats tonight, despite a 3.25 run team total. Problematically, we really have no idea what to expect out of Spencer Strider tonight, except that he’s almost certain to run well short of a full workload, but LHBs had just a .244 wOBA and .267 xwOBA against him this year. Bryce Harper (148 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (146 wRC+, .334 ISO) are just that good in the most hitter friendly environment on the board today.

The bottom half of the pitching board includes a competent, but frequently over-valued arm, a highly volatile one and one who’s faced just nine batters over the last month and a half. Nestor Cortes finished up his season with 13.1 shutout innings, striking out 15 of 45 batters. On the season, he struck out 26.5% (20.3 K-BB%) of batters with an 11.1 SwStr% and only allowed 5.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 33.5 GB% because batters only made hard contact 34.7% of the time against him. That put his 2.44 ERA most in line with, but still well below a 2.70 xERA with contact neutral estimators around three and a half. A Yankee defense with 16 Runs Prevented and a .268 BABIP allowed helped and Harrison Bader will only make It better, but a .232 BABIP and 82.8 LOB% still merit some regression concerns. Jose Trevino was also the best defensive catcher in the game this year (20.5 CDA) by a pretty fair margin. Cortes did get in two starts against Cleveland this year (12.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 14 K – 42 BF), both prior to the break. The Guardians were measurably worse against LHP this year (84 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 6.9 HR/FB). While the cutter was a strong offering for Cortes too, the four-seamer was his best pitch (44%, -2.2 RV/100, 25.4 Whiff%, .205 wOBA, .239 xwOBA), while the Guardians were the fifth worst offense against fastballs in the second half (-0.5 wFB/C). He’s just below $10K on FanDuel (fourth most expensive), but third most expensive on DraftKings, but currently the second worst projected pitcher and value on the board (though that could change with a Spencer Strider adjustment).

Second cheapest on the board, Blake Snell allowed a run or less in 13 of his last 17 regular season starts and did so with a 35.1 K% and 26.6 K-BB%. An 8.4 BB% over that span wouldn’t stand out to most people, but it represented substantial improvement for Snell, who had become accustomed to double digit walk rates for most of his Padre tenure. He finished the season with a 32.0 K%, 9.5 BB% and estimators ranging from a 2.68 DRA to a 3.21 xFIP a bit below his 3.38 ERA. Then the post-season game and he was the only San Diego dark spot of the Wild Card series, walking six of 19 Mets, a number he hit only once this season (at Coors), while striking out five and failing to make it out of the fourth inning. Which Snell will we see against the Dodgers (113 wRC+, 22.9 K%, 9.0 BB% vs LHP)? All three of his starts this season fit into that 17 start window mentioned above, but with mixed results (14 IP – 6 ER – 1 HR – 10 BB – 23 BF – 63 BF). He currently projects as the fourth best arm on the board and third best value, but again, this is probably assuming a workload on the larger side for Strider. An adjustment there could make Snell the second best projected value on either site. Currently ownership expectations for Snell are very low, which would make this highly volatile arm more interesting in GPPs.

A .207 BABIP and 83.8 LOB% rightfully get a lot of the credit for Tony Gonsolin’s 2.14 ERA being around a run or more below estimators ranging from a 3.12 xERA to a 3.74 SIERA, which is a bit of a shame because it’s not like he pitched poorly at all. A 23.9 K%, 7.0 BB% and just 5.6% Barrels/BBE are certainly nothing to scoff at. However, he also missed the entire month of September, returning only over the last weekend to face nine batters (40 pitches) and now has had another 11 days off. How much could we possibly expect out of him? Gonsolin did do some of his best work against the Padres (12.2 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 14 K – 46 BF), who had just a 101 wRC+, 22.0 K% and 9.6 HR/FB vs RHP this year. He is the worst projected pitcher and value on the board with a very low workload expectation.

Top Projected Pitcher in Dangerous, But High Upside Spot

If anyone stands a decent chance of taking the NL Cy Young out of Sandy Alcantara’s hands, it’s probably Aaron Nola. He did not always excel at run prevention, but a lot of that can be blamed on the worst defense to make the post-season, which was also the second worst unit in baseball (-31 Runs Prevented). Nola recorded at least two seventh inning outs in 17 of his 32 starts this season, striking out 29.1% of the batters he faced, while walking just 3.6% with a 28.4 Z-O-Swing% and 31.6% hard hit rate. His 3.25 ERA was well above estimators ranging from a 2.58 FIP to a 2.80 SIERA. Ironically, he allowed at least four runs in three of his five starts against the Braves, but a total of just one in the other two. Nearly one-quarter (seven) of his 29 season walks were issued to them, along with five of his 19 home runs, though he also struck out 41 of 140 Braves and completed at least six innings in all three starts. A lot of strikeouts and home runs sounds like what the Braves have done to most right-handed pitching this year (108 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 16.0 HR/FB). Nola struck out six of 25 Cardinals with a single walk over 6.2 shutout innings in the Wild Card round. Nola is the most expensive pitcher on either site by $400. He is the top projected pitcher on the board and assuming the top projected value gets a pitch count adjustment, Nola would be the top projected value on either site.

You probably haven’t heard much about Shane Bieber’s velocity since April because it hasn’t been a problem. It’s even risen since early in the season, but remaining below previous years, he just reduced his fastball usage (it was his worst graded pitch via Statcast at 0.1 RV/100) and everything has worked out fine. Bieber finished the season allowing more than two runs in just two of his last 13 starts with at least seven outings in eight of those. He failed to produce six innings, only in his last start. Striking out exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced and walking just 4.6% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), an 89.9 mph EV didn’t hurt so much. There was a bit of a falter over the last month of the season, but a 13.0 SwStr% and .303 xwOBA suggest he pitched much better than results. His 2.88 ERA was a near perfect match for his FIP (2.87), but only more than one-third of a run below a 3.51 xERA. Two additional facets in his favor are that the Cleveland defense was fifth best in the league this year (14 Runs Prevented) and Austin Hedges was the fifth best defensive catcher (11.4 CDA, which is a counting stat). Bieber dominated the Rays, striking out eight of 26, allowing a single run and walk in his Wild Card start. The Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 9.9 BB% vs RHP, 119 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB at home) are a different animal, though it’s not necessarily a park downgrade in terms of pure run environment. Bieber is the second most expensive pitcher on either site and assuming a major adjustment to Spencer Strider’s pitch count coming, would likely be the second best projected pitcher on the board, but a middle of the board (third or fourth) projected value.

Spencer Strider is great. He struck out an insane 38.3% of batters faced with a 79.1 Z-Contact% and allowed just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. All estimators were more than a quarter run below his 2.67 ERA, but he also hasn’t pitched since September 18th. What could we reasonably expect? Perhaps three innings? In three starts plus one relief appearance against the Phillies, Strider excelled (21.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 7 BB – 34 K – 79 BF), despite the fact that they pummeled sliders in the second half (0.32 wSL/C). Strider is third most expensive FanDuel pitcher ($10K), but only $6.5K on DraftKings, which almost makes him sort of interesting. Perhaps he’s been doing enough bullpen work to go four to five innings? We really don’t know yet. Projections which probably assuming nearly a full work load have him as the second best pitcher and top value on the board, but Strider is an enormous wild card today, while expectations probably need to be tempered.

Guardians-Yankees Game 2 postponed Thursday due to inclement weather

Game update: Guardians-Yankees Game 2 postponed Thursday due to inclement weather

Top Projected Bat Against Reverse Split Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw was simply phenomenal when healthy this season. He allowed more than two runs in just four of 22 starts, but did have enough injury concerns to go fewer than six innings in 10 of 22 starts. While a 23.1 K-BB% was his worst mark since 2019, it’s still well above his career average (20.7%) in addition to a fantastic contact profile (47.1 GB%, 87.1 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 33.2% 95+ mph EV). A good defense (8 Runs Prevented, .255 BABIP allowed) were partially responsible for a 2.28 ERA that was below estimators ranging from a 2.51 xERA to a 3.13 DRA, but he also helped them out with a lot of weak contact. The Padres had a 103 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs LHP this year, only facing Kershaw twice (12 IP – 1 ER – 0 – 1 BB – 11 K – 44 BF), both prior to the break. Kershaw’s three pitch arsenal (slider, four-seam curveball) all graded much better than average via Statcast (Run Value), though the Padres were no worse than middle of the league against any of those pitches in the second half. Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher on either site, but likely mostly due to workload/pitch count, projects as the worst pitcher on the board and obviously as the worst value on either site as well. He certainly has a chance to blow these projections out of the water though. The weather forecast also makes him quite a bit safer than either of the pitchers in Atlanta.

In fact, the Padres (2.92) have the lowest implied run total on the board by more than half a run. Despite the lefty on lefty situation and lowest team run total, Juan Soto (106 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP this season) projects as the top bat on the board, as LHBs (.283 wOBA, .281 xwOBA) actually performed superior to RHBs (.238 wOBA, .242 xwOBA) against Kershaw this year. Soto is the only Padres among the top 10 projected bats on either site though. We find several more Padres projected among the top 10 values on either site tonight, including Soto at $3.7K on FanDuel. Wil Myers (130 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Jake Cronenworth (108 wRC+, .155 ISO) also project as top FanDuel values for less than $3K. Myers also projects as the second best DraftKings value ($2.7K) with Trent Grisham (82 wRC+, .161 ISO) projecting as the best DK value for $400 less. The bottom of the lineup has somewhat been carrying the Padres through the post-season thus far and Austin Nola (109 wRC+, .115 ISO) projects as a top DK value for $2.5K too.

Dodger Stackers Have Some Decisions to Make

Though he only struck out four of 28 batters, Yu Darvish shut the Mets down over seven innings (six hits, one run) in the Wild Card series. He failed to go at least six innings twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second half strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. The San Diego defense is the best on the board today (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league). Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast. The Dodgers (122 wRC+, 21.6 K%, 10.0 BB%) don’t really have a problem pitch, but Darvish did have some success against them this year (25 IP – 7 ER – 4 HR – 5 BB – 31 K – 101 BF). The second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, third most on DraftKings, Darvish projects as the third best pitcher on the board, but less than a point below Kyle Wright on either site. He does, however, project as the third best or second worst value on either site.

The Dodgers (4.08) are essentially tied with the Braves for the top team run total on the board with five of the top 10 projected bats on the board in their projected lineup. Darvish had a bit of a reverse split this year (RHBs .294 wOBA, .312 xwOBA – LHBs .239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA). Mookie Betts (133 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this year) is the second best projected bat on the board and Freddie Freeman (167 wRC+, .194 ISO) is the third best projected bat. Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .143 ISO), Will Smith (119 wRC+, .201 ISO) and Max Muncy (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) also project among the top 10. The Dodgers also project as five of the top 10 values on FanDuel, including Muncy, Smith and then Justin Turner (129 wRC+, .178 ISO), Trayce Thompson (182 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (92 wRC+, .203 ISO). Smith ($3.2K) is the only one of the five costing more than $3K. On DraftKings, Turner, Thompson and Bellinger also project as top 10 values with Turner ($3.9K) the only one of the three not within $200 of $3K. Dodgers stackers have some decisions to make.

Cheapest DraftKings Arm Is Your Top Projected Value

Kyle Wright only completed six innings in one of his last five starts, but allowed two runs or less in each of his last four. A breakout season included a 23.6 K% (16.4 K-BB%), 55.6 GB% and just 6.8% Barrels/BBE. That said, his 3.19 ERA was a bit below esimators ranging from a 3.26 DRA to a 3.89 xERA. The strikeout rate was merely league average (21.5%) over his last 22 starts too. The Phillies had a 102 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP this year and struggled in three matchups against Wright this year (19 IP – 6 ER – 3 HR – 7 BB – 15 K – 73 BF). Wright’s most frequently thrown pitch was a curveball (34.1%, -1.1 RV/100, 33.5 Whiff%, .263 wOBA, .262 xwOBA), which it may behoove him to continue to utilize frequently against the Phillies (-0.37 wCB/C since the break). Wright is the least expensive pitcher on either site, but the second best projected one (by less than a point though), which makes him the top projected DraftKings value (second best projected FanDuel value). However, he, like Wheeler of course, has major weather concerns in a hitter friendly environment with a hitter friendly umpire.

The Phillies have the third highest (or second lowest) team run total on the board (3.46), half a run behind the Dodgers and Braves and half a run ahead of the Padres. Bryce Harper (148 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP this year), Kyle Schwarber (146 wRC+, .334 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (129 wRC+, .207 ISO) all project as top 10 bats today, but this lineup is a bit stars and scrubs with Rhys Hoskins and Brandon Marsh the only other two batters in the lineup reaching a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. LHBs (.308 wOBA, .329 xwOBA) hit Wright a bit better than RHBs (.265 wOBA, .280 ISO) this year. Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO) are the top two projected FanDuel values on the board for $2.5K or less. Both are also top 10 projected DraftKings values, though the latter costs $3.6K.

Top Projected Pitcher Has Weather Concerns

Zack Wheeler struck out just four of the 22 Cardinals he faced in the Wild Card round with a single walk, a HBP and four hits over 6.2 shutout innings. He missed a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are the only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh) and they did improve the defense with some trade deadline acquisitions. The Braves have a 108 wRC+, but 25.1 K% vs RHP and also have a 16+ HR/FB both vs RHP and at home. Potentially a problem, Wheeler doesn’t have a pitch the Braves struggled against in the second half of the season. They were particularly proficient against sliders (0.32 wSL/C). Wheeler was strong in three starts against the Braves this year (20 IP – 6 ER – 3 HR – 1 BB – 25 K – 77 BF). Despite some weather concerns and an extremely hitter friendly umpire (neither of which are baked into projections), Wheeler projects as the top pitcher on the board and as the third most expensive one, the top projected FanDuel value. Wheeler is the second most expensive DraftKings pitcher and second best projected DK value.

Offensively, the Braves (4.04 implied runs) are essentially tied with the Dodgers for the top team run total, yet Ronald Acuna Jr. (118 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Atlanta bat, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .262 and .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Wheeler this season. However, the first eight batters in the Atlanta confirmed lineup all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP this year. The Atlanta lineup does not feature a top 10 projected FanDuel value, but Eddie Rosario (64 wRC+, .122 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (108 wRC+, .248 ISO) project as top 10 DraftKings values for less than $3K.

Sites Conflict Where Value Bats Can Be Found Today

Players paying up for Cole and/or Verlander today are going to need value bats, but projections for either site are in disagreement upon which lineups that value can be found. FanDuel players may be happy (or frustrated) to know that the top projected value bats are some of the same top projected overall bats in the Dodger lineup. Max Muncy (110 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this season) and Will Smith (119 wRC+, .201 ISO) are both top 10 projected overall bats and top three projected FanDuel values within $200 of $3K. While the top half of the Dodger lineup offers top overall bats, the bottom half offers top 10 projected values in Justin Turner (129 wRC+, .178 ISO), Chris Taylor (101 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (92 wRC+, .203 ISO), all costing less than $3K. Taylor ($3.1K) is the only Dodger bat projecting among the top 10 values on DraftKings. The Dodgers punished Mike Clevinger this year (13 IP – 14 ER – 5 HR – 4 BB – 11 K – 63 BF) and batters from either side of the plate were between a .306 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year.

Costing the minimum, Robbie Grossman (157 wRC+, .123 ISO) is the second best projected FanDuel value and even costing $3.8K, Ronald Acuna (102 wRC+, .131 ISO) also projects as a top 10 FD value. Grossman is also the only Brave to project as a top 10 DraftKings value ($2.6K). It is the most hitter friendly environment on the board in Atlanta, while RHBs had a .332 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against Ranger Suarez this year.

The New York Yankees also feature multiple top 10 projected FanDuel values within $100 of $3K in Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (95 wRC+, .145 ISO) against Cal Qauntrill (RHBs .314 wOBA, .318 xwOBA). Harrison Bader (90 wRC+, .117 ISO) is the only top 10 projected Yankee value on DraftKings at $2.8K.

Three different teams feature multiple top projected DraftKings values, starting with a min-priced Matt Vierling (110 wRC+, .131 ISO) as the top projected DK value and Edmundo Sosa (101 wRC+, .207 ISO) the third best projected DK value (same price). RHBs had just a .261 wOBA and .272 xwOBA against Max Fried this year, but as noted above, this is the best hitting environment on the board today.

Costing $2.5K on DraftKings, Carlos Santana (89 wRC+, .188 ISO) is the second best projected DraftKings value, while Jarred Kelenic (69 wRC+, .211 ISO) sneaks inside the top 10 as well. LHBs had just a .201 wOBA and .235 xwOBA against Justin Verlander this year, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who has been prone to the occasional home run in the past.

The Houston projected lineup features a trio of top 10 projected FanDuel values against Logan Gilbert’s reverse split (RHBs .334 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). Yuli Gurriel (74 wRC+, .091 ISO), Trey Mancini (111 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Chas McCormick (88 wRC+, .137 ISO) all cost less than $3K.

Top Offense on the Board Has Man-Handled Today's Opposing Pitcher

The Dodgers top the board at 4.57 implied runs on an either team divisional round board and even that may be a little light for the way they’ve man-handled Mike Clevinger this year (13 IP – 14 ER – 5 HR – 4 BB – 11 K – 63 BF). The Braves (4.41) aren’t far behind with the Yankees (4.15) the only other team exceeding a four run team total. Five of the top 10 bats on the board, the top five in the projected lineup, are Dodgers. Mike Clevinger had a mind-blowing 13.5 K% (5.5 K-BB%) over his last 11 starts (two of them against the Dodgers) and if you think this is some magic sample size cherry picking, he did not exceed four strikeouts in a single one of those starts. He also generated just 31.8% of his contact on the ground with 13 home runs and 24 barrels (13.4%) over that span with a 5.67 ERA/6.50 FIP/5.87 xFIP combo. For the season, batters from either side of the plate are between a .306 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA against Clevinger. Mookie Betts (133 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this year), Freddie Freeman (167 wRC+, .194 ISO), Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .143 ISO), Will Smith (119 wRC+, .201 ISO) and Max Muncy (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) all project as top bats tonight.

It’s probably no surprise that Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .384 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board tonight. Cal Quantrill had just a 16.6 K% this season, while batters from either side were between a .295 and .324 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Judge is joined among the top 10 projected bats tonight by Anthony Rizzo (125 wRC+, .235 ISO), one of just two projected LHBs in the Yankee lineup tonight.

The Houston Astros are the only other offense featuring multiple top 10 projected bats. Logan Gilbert actually had some success against the Astros this season (25 IP – 7 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 22 K – 100 BF), but does have a large reverse split (RHBs .334 wOBA, .336 xwOBA – LHBs .256 wOBA, .288 xwOBA). Yordan Alvarez (186 wRC+, .328 ISO) is the second best projected bat on the board, while Jose Altuve (148 wRC+, .202 ISO) lands just inside the top 10.

Are Bottom Half of the Board Pitchers Usable?

Clearly, where the bottom half of the board starts, at least in terms of cost, Logan Gilbert struck out at least nine in four of his last six starts, but also no more than five in eight of his last 11. He struck out just 22.7% of batters on the year with a strong walk rate (6.4%), but appeared to be a bit lucky with just 7.1% Barrels/BBE, despite just a 35.6 GB%, 91 mph EV and 45.6% hard hit rate. A 44.6 Z-O-Swing% suggests he wasn’t fooling many batters. With one of the more marginal defenses remaining the post season (2 Runs Prevented), the gap between Gilbert’s 3.20 ERA estimators ranging from a 3.46 FIP to a 4.11 xERA could easily be explained by that hard hit rate that showed up more in a 24.2 LD% than in barrels or home runs (9.2 HR/FB). While the Astros had a solid, but not completely intimidating 107 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs RHP, they also had a 123 wRC+ and 18.8 K% at home. Gilbert, who threw his four-seamer more than 50% of the time this year, had four Quality Starts against Houston (25 IP – 7 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 22 K – 100 BF, despite having a strong reverse split (.334 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). He is your fifth best projected pitcher on either site and value on DraftKings, but the second from the bottom in terms of value on FanDuel.

Third least expensive on either site, it wasn’t strikeouts (16.6%, 10.1 K-BB%) and the contact profile was perfectly average (42.1 GB%, 7.5% Barrrels/BBE), so what was responsible for Cal Quantrill’s 3.38 ERA that was well below estimators ranging from a 4.12 FIP to a 4.50 SIERA? It was a little bit of everything, from eight unearned runs to a 9.6 HR/FB, though his .278 BABIP was actually slightly higher than what the Cleveland defense (14 Runs Prevented) allowed (.254). One interesting aspect here could be his cutter (36.1%, -0.2 RV/100, 23.8 Whiff%, .289 wOBA, .316 xwOBA). The Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP, 119 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB at home) didn’t face a ton of them in the second half, but on a per pitch basis were the fifth worst offense against the pitch (-1.18 wFC/C). He is your sixth best projected arm on either site and value on FanDuel, but second from the bottom in terms of value on DraftKings.

Second from the bottom of the board, Ranger Suarez did not exceed five strikeouts over his last eight starts, only even hitting that number twice. While the strikeout rate was just 19.5% (10.7 K-BB%), he significantly upped his value with a 55.4 GB% and 34.9% hard hit rate. The result is a 3.65 ERA that’s closest to his 3.78 xERA with additional estimators ranging as high as a 4.71 DRA. The Braves will strike out some (23.3% vs LHP), but otherwise pounded southpaws (118 wRC+) and had a 16.2 HR/FB at home this year. Suarez also had a decent sized split (RHBs .332 wOBA, .314 xwOBA) that could prove problematic against this predominantly right-handed lineup. He did face Atlanta five times this season. The first two weren’t so good (11 IP – 9 ER – 2 HR – 7 BB – 11 K – 47 BF), but the last three were much better (17 IP – 4 R – 1 ER – 6 BB – 12 K – 68 BF), including two September Quality Starts. The Phillies also have the worst defense (-31 Runs Prevented) of any post-season team, although they looked much improved in St Louis. Suarez projects as the second worst pitcher on either site and value on FanDuel, but the third best value on DraftKings.

The cheapest pitcher on either site, Mike Clevinger had a mind-blowing 13.5 K% (5.5 K-BB%) over his last 11 starts and if you think this is some magic sample size cherry picking, he did not exceed four strikeouts in a single one of those starts. He also generated just 31.8% of his contact on the ground with 13 home runs and 24 barrels (13.4%) over that span with a 5.67 ERA/6.50 FIP/5.87 xFIP combo. In fact, a 4.32 DRA is his only season estimator below a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have a great defense (25 Runs Prevented) that they showed off against the Mets, but there’s only so much they can do. Clevinger had only two pitches grade average or better by Statcast, his sinker (13.6%, -2.6 RV/100) and four-seamer (37.3%, -0.2 RV/100). The Dodgers (122 wRC+, 21.6 K%, 10.0 BB%, 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP) were the best offense in baseball against fastballs in the second half (0.89 wFB/C) and it wasn’t even close. They also had their way with Clevinger in three starts this year (13 IP – 14 ER – 5 HR – 4 BB – 11 K – 63 BF). Clevinger is the worst projected pitcher on either site and value on DraftKings, but the fourth best projected value on FanDuel, although you’d need a cast iron stomach to consider him on a single pitcher site (or either site for that matter).

Top Projected Pitcher Faces Toughest Team to K

The four game divisional round slate kicks off this afternoon and includes four $10K pitchers (though just one on DraftKings), which we’ll cover here first. Most expensively and the only pitcher reaching $10K on bothi sites, Justin Verlander finished his season with a 27.8 K% and elite 4.4 BB% and 10 more infield flies (38) than barrels (28). His 1.75 ERA broke estimators (2.49 FIP to 3.23 xFIP) with a .240 BABIP and 80.5 LOB% that weren’t even the best marks of his career. Heck, the strand rate was actually his worst since he left Detroit, though still several points above his career average (77.4%). The Astros have one of the best defenses in baseball too (25 Runs Prevented). Verlander didn’t allow a single barrel in any of his last six starts. The arsenal was simple: four-seam, curveball, slider. All grade as very strong pitches, while Mariners (106 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP) were middle of the league against all three pitches post-break. Verlander is your second best projected today and either the third (FanDuel) or fourth (DraftKings) projected value.

No more than $300 less than Verlander on either site, Gerrit Cole allowed 12 home runs and 17 barrels (14.8%) over his last eight starts. He certainly had some contact profiles that the elite strikeout rate (32.4%, 26.1 K-BB%) helped mask. On the season, he allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE with a 3.47 FIP and 3.31 xERA just about confirming his 3.50 ERA, even if contact neutral estimators were about three-quarters of a run lower. That makes this an incredibly interesting matchup because the Guardians (104 wRC+) don’t strike out against RHP (17.3%), but hit for very little power as well (8.3 HR/FB). Cole faced them twice this year, both earlier in the season, throwing 6.2 shutout innings with nine strikeouts in the first outing, but allowing just two solo home runs over six innings, striking out six in the second. The Guardians were also the fifth worst offense against fastballs post-break (-0.5 wFB/C), which should play largely in Cole’s favor (four-seam 51.9%, -0.5 RV/100, 33.8 Whiff%, .313 wOBA, .300 xwOBA). Not that he actually uses the defense much, but the Yankees were one of the better units in the league this year (16 Runs Prevented) and even better than that now with Harrison Bader in the fold. Cole is the top projected pitcher on the board and value today (tied on FanDuel).

Third most expensive on FanDuel, but $1.9K less on DraftKings, although he only went beyond five innings in two of his last six starts, Max Fried did not allow more than two earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. The strikeouts can be a bit hit or miss in any given outing, but were above average on the year (23.2%) with an elite walk rate (4.4%), while dominating contact (51.2 GB%, 86.2 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 32.1% 95+ mph EV). His 2.48 ERA is closest to a 2.70 FIP with a 2.85 xERA not much higher with additional estimators ranging as high as a 3.31 SIERA. All five of Fried’s pitches (10%+) grade strongly by Statcast measures (RV), though the one the Phillies struggled with most since the break (-0.37 wCB/C) was the curveball (21.6%, -1.8 RV/100, 40.2 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .200). Though the Phillies smashed LHP overall (115 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 11.9 HR/FB), Fried faced them four times and all were Quality Starts except the last one (23 IP – 8 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 25 K – 97 BF). Fried is the third best projected arm on the board and tied for the top projected value on DraftKings (second on FanDuel).

Costing $10.1 K on FanDuel, but $8.7K on DraftKings, Julio Urias does just about everything well except generate ground balls (39.7%). He strikes out batters at an above average rate (24.1%), walks very few (6.0%) and limits the hard contact (86.7 mph EV, 30.4% 95+ mph EV). The Dodgers rarely let him hit the 95 pitch mark, but he still only failed to complete six innings 10 times. That being said, and the Dodgers have a good defense (8 Runs Prevented, .255 BABIP), but a 2.16 ERA is more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 2.81 xERA to a 3.81 xFIP. In fact, the xERA is his only estimator below three and a half. No matter how great the contact profile, a .229 BABIP and 86.6 LOB% are not sustainable long term and nine of his 51 runs were unearned. Urias pitched well against San Diego (103 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs LHP in four starts (24 IP – 4 ER – 3 HR – 10 BB – 18 K – 93 BF), although they did account for nearly one-quarter of his 41 walks. Urias is the fourth best projected arm on the board, but a bottom half of the board value.

This Cheap Bat Projects as the Top Value on Both Sites

FanDuel pitchers are all pretty expensive on Friday, while DraftKings is a bit more flexible, but you’ll probably want to throw in some value bats. The Phillies not only project three top 10 bats tonight, but three top 10 FanDuel values, though no Phillie hitter projects as a top bat and value tonight. Matt Vierling (110 wRC+, .131 ISO vs LHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Phillie value on both sites ($2.1K on both), though Nick Castellanos (99 wRC+, .082 ISO) and Alec Bohm (158 wRC+, .189 ISO) are top values for $2.7K or less against Jose Quintana (RHBs .292 wOBA, .312 xwOBA).

The top projected value at $2.6K on both sites is Carlos Santana (89 wRC+, .188 ISO) against Alek Manoah (LHBs. 302 wOBA, .326 xwOBA). Jarred Kelenic (69 wRC+, .211 ISO) projects as a multi-site top value for less than $2.5K. He has a 109 wRC+ since his latest recall. Adam Frazier (84 wRC+) is a top 10 DraftKings value, but costs $2.2K on both sites.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the only other offense with a pair of top 10 projected values on both sites. Batters from either side of the plate are between just a .259 and .297 wOBA and xwOBA against Shane Bieber this year, but Christian Bethancourt (99 wRC+, .181 ISO) and David Peralta (116 wRC+, .182 ISO) are top FD values for less than $2.5K, while Jose Siri (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) and Taylor Walls (66 wRC+, .127 ISO) are top projected DK values in the same price range.

A pair of St Louis Cardinals also show up as top 10 FanDuel values against Zack Wheeler (LHBs .271 wOBA, .290 xwOBA). Lars Noobar (120 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (110 wRC+, .141 ISO) cost less than $2.6K or less.

The Bottom Half of a Great Pitching Board

The fifth most expensive arm on either site, but still $10K on FanDuel, Zack Wheeler did miss a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters and work himself up to 77 pitches last time out. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Removing the eight starts around his IL stints, Wheeler completed seven innings in eight of 17 this year. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh). The Cardinals have a 109 wRC+ and 19.9 K% vs RHP and also the top home/road wRC+ on the board (119), but St Louis is a significantly negative run environment, especially in the cooler months. The only pitches that graded extremely well for Wheeler this year were his fastballs, a sinker (17.7%, -2.5 RV/100, .262 wOBA, .249 xwOBA) and four-seam (41.8, -1 RV/100, 28.4 Whiff%). This could be a problem, trailed only the Dodgers in offense against fastballs (0.54 wFB/C). Wheeler, perhaps due to combination of workload and matchup, projects just second from the bottom today (though could move up when Manoah finally gets a projection) and also as the second worst value on either site, despite a large price discrepancy ($2.8K).

Third cheapest on either site, Shane McClanahan ended the season striking out just 12 of his last 81 batters (14.6% with a 9.6 SwStr%) after a two week IL stint. He was also hammered for a 5.21 ERA that was below his 5.85 FIP and .343 xwOBA. The good news (and really only good news) is that his velocity was up last time out and perhaps that’s the sign the Rays needed to see to have confidence in him in this spot. His last four starts were all against Houston and Toronto too. His season numbers are still electric enough to be considered the statistical Cy Young (which is different from the narrative one). McClanahan still has a 30.3 K% (24.4 K-BB%) with a 15.5 SwStr% and 79.5 Z-Contact%. Half of his contact has been on the ground (50.2%), allowing just 6.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 32.6% hard hit rate. Those marks give him the second highest strikeout rate and second lowest hard hit rate among today’s starters. He finished with a 2.54 ERA that below, but within half a run of all estimators. Not a single one was above three. He has the best SIERA, xFIP and DRA on the board. The Guardians also have far inferior numbers against LHP. They still don’t strike out a ton (20.7%), but have board lows wRC+ (84), BB (7.0%) and HR/FB (6.9%) rates against LHP. If McClanahan is healthy, he could dominate. If not, he still has a chance. He projects as today’s third best arm (though in virtual tie with Darvish), but is easily the top projected DraftKings value (third on FD), though projections don’t dink pitchers (or anyone) for potential injuries.

The least expensive pitcher by $1K on DraftKings, but just second least expensive on FanDuel, Jose Quintana may seem an odd Game One choice. His 20.2 K% and 10.6 SwStr% are worst on the board (although that second one is a perfectly league average number). He’s also allowed a single home run and just eight barrels (2.7%) over his 19 starts. It’s not sustainable stuff, but it sure is something and may be more sustainable in this park. Think of the Cardinals as a football team with interchangeable running backs in a great system. The Cardinals only want their pitchers to induce weak contact while the defense (19 Runs Prevented) takes care of the rest. Quantrill registered a 13.3 K-BB% (average) with an above average ground ball rate (46.4%) and just an 86.5 mph EV and 5.5% Barrels/BBE. He’s also bottom of the board in innings pitched per start this year and by a pretty big margin at just above five. The Phillies had a 115 wRC+ vs LHP with a 22.8 K% and 11.9 HR/FB. They had just a 100 wRC+ on the road. His best bet might be a lot of curveballs. It was one of two strong pitches for him (28.1%, -1.3 RV/100, 31.1 Whiff%, .258 wOBA, .282 xwOBA) and the only pitch he throws that the Phillies were below average against since the break (-0.37 wCB/C is bottom third of the league). The worst projected pitcher on the board is also the worst projected FanDuel value, but second best DraftKings one. An obvious SP2 consideration only, but a decent one.

Somehow, least expensively on FD, but fourth most expensive on DraftKings, Luis Castillo started 11 games for the Mariners (3.17 ERA/2.91 FIP/3.03 xFIP) and seven of them were Quality Starts. He actually allowed 15 (8.9%) of his 27 barrels (6.8%) with the Mariners, but his strikeout rate also increased (28.9%). Perhaps he realized he could get away with much more in Seattle than he did in Cincinnati. Only six of those barrels left the yard and just two in five home starts. Overall, he has a 2.99 ERA that was just slightly beneath, but within half a run of all estimators except for a 2.20 xERA. He does get a slight park downgrade here, how much may be determined by the roof status, while the Blue Jays had an equal 118 wRC+ at home and vs RHP this year, striking out only 20.3% of the time with a 13.0 HR/FB vs RHP. The Blue Jays generally run out an almost entirely right-handed lineup, while batters from that site had just a .262 wOBA and .261 xwOBA against him this year. Castillo’s best pitches were a four-seamer (32.9%, -2.2 RV/100, 33.9 Whiff%) and slider (21.1%, -1.4 RV/100, 36.8%), but the Blue Jays were above average against all four pitches he throws more than 20% of the time since the break. Castillo is a middling projections overall, but a top three projected value on either site currently.