DFS Alerts
Pete Kozma scratched Friday; Leonys Martin replaces
Kozma has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not play in Friday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to a manager decision after Leonys Martin was activated from the disabled list. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Martin, who will play center field and slot into the leadoff spot in the order, which does slide JaCoby Jones down one batting position to second, but ultimately, the remainder of the Tigers lineup stays intact as they face off against right-hander Felix Hernandez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Evan Woodbery via Twitter
Andrew McCutchen and Nick Hundley exceed a 150 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP last calendar year
The San Francisco Giants may not be on the radar of daily fantasy players because Kyle Freeland is a decent pitcher outside of Coors and he gets one of the top park upgrades available tonight. However, it needs to be noted that both Andrew McCutchen (154 wRC+, .277 ISO) and Nick Hundley (177 wRC+, .283 ISO) over the last calendar year. While Hundley has had fewer opportunities and has a .377 xwOBA 47 points below his actual, that’s still an extremely strong number. He costs just $2.4K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Nick Hundley, Kyle Freeland
Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story face a pitcher with a .400 xwOBA vs RHBs since last season
Right-handed batters pulverize Derek Holland to the tune of a .400 xwOBA (42.3 Hard%) since last season. The Colorado Rockies have two of those types right in the middle of their order tonight who crush left-handed pitching in Nolan Arenado (214 wRC+, .369 ISO last calendar year) and Trevor Story (148 wRC+, .335 ISO). Of course, removing this matchup from Colorado or even a neutral park and playing it in San Francisco has a significant muting effect, but it’s important to note that this park plays more fairly towards right-handed offense. Holland struck out seven batters in 6.1 shutout innings in Pittsburgh last time out (a park that suppresses right-handed power even more than SF), but did walk seven. These two bats should remain firmly on the radar of daily fantasy players tonight. Chris Iannetta (109 wRC+, .212 ISO) is a value play for $3.2K on DK and especially on FD ($2.3K).
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Derek Holland, Chris Iannetta Start of Friday's CHC-CIN game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have disclosed that they will provide another update at approximately 7:20 pm eastern time. The late start is better news for the prospects of the starting pitchers like Jon Lester not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries a decent amount of risk and a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out of the equation.
As reported by: the Cincinnati Reds via Twitter Jakob Junis has allowed nine HRs in four home starts
Jakob Junis can miss bats at around a league average rate and is one of few pitchers averaging six innings or more per start this year on today’s board, but he’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher, who’s a bit home run prone (11 allowed in eight starts), facing the Yankees tonight. While Kansas City does suppress power, it is a positive overall run environment and nine of his 11 home runs have been surrendered at home. While his career wOBA against LHBs is 23 points higher than RHBs, xwOBA spies it the opposite way, favoring RHBs (.355) by 27 points. Aaron Hicks (98 wRC+, .190 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup below a 112 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. He’s joined by just Brett Gardner (.156 ISO) and Neil Walker (.161 ISO) below a .212 ISO. The damage the middle of this order can do does not need to be further spelled out.
Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Brett Gardner, Jakob Junis Nicky Delmonico (117 wRC+, .174 ISO vs LHP) bats second against Matt Moore (LHBs .449 wOBA since 2017)
The Rangers at White Sox features two of the worst pitchers on the board. Both Matt Moore and Carson Fulmer reach a .400 xwOBA and 90+ mph aEV this season. The problem is offense, or lack of it in these lineups, with both teams carrying an implied run line between 4.6 and 4.9 runs. The Rangers have dropped their best hitter, Joey Gallo (115 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) to the sixth spot due to a -19 wRC+ over the last week. Nobody else in the lineup combines a 100+ wRC+ with an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last 365 days. Shin-soo Choo (107 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (93 wRC+, .215 ISO) come closest. On the other hand, the White Sox do have some talent in the top half of the order against LHP: Tim Anerson (129 wRC+, .217 ISO), Jose Abreu (154 wRC+, .263 ISO), Matt Davidson (122 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Welington Castillo (130 wRC+, .213). Matt Moore actually has a severe reverse split (LHBs .449 wOBA), but has been bad against RHBs too (.341 wOBA), which may give Nick Delmonico (117 wRC+, .174 ISO) significant value for $3K or less.
Other tagged players: Matt Moore, Carson Fulmer, Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo, Robinson Chirinos, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo, Matt Davidson Dan Straily has allowed four HRs with more walks than strikeouts in three starts
The Atlanta Braves have a top five implied run line (5.17) against a pitcher who has shown no platoon split since last season (.320 – .321 xwOBA), but who has walked more batters than he’s struck out in three starts (11 vs 8). Dan Straily has a .450 xwOBA that’s worst on the board as a result of that and four HRs allowed in three starts. The quality bats for Atlanta cost quite a bit: Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Ozzie Albies (105 wRC+, .211 ISO) both around $5K on either site. Ronald Acuna (141 wRC+, .216 ISO) is above $4K. Tyler Flowers (96 wRC+, .197 ISO) offers some value for less than $3K on either site and could see some opportunities to drive in runs tonight.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Dan Straily, Tyler Flowers, Ronald Acuna Two pitchers averaging fewer than five innings per start face off in Boston tonight
The Orioles at Red Sox features two pitchers who have struggled greatly after getting a late start to the season with neither averaging even five innings per start so far this season. However, the home team has the top implied run line on the board (5.27), a full run above the visitors (4.23). Left-handers are now up to a .335 wOBA against Alex Cobb since last season, enhancing Andrew Benintendi’s value (117 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Of course, Mookie Betts (110 wRC+ ,.207 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (154 wRC+, .347 ISO) remain elite bats in most spots with this being no difference. Xander Bogaerts (95 wRC+, .168 ISO) has increased his fly ball rate and has homered in two straight games. Manny Machado (122 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jonathan Schoop (175 wRC+, .300 ISO), and Trey Mancini (110 wRC+, .156 ISO) look strong against a pitcher who has allowed a .329 xwOBA to RHBs since last season on the other end of this matchup.
Other tagged players: Alex Cobb, Drew Pomeranz, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini Josh Reddick (leg irritation) scratched Friday; Derek Fisher replaces
Reddick has been scratched from the Houston Astros original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup with the Cleveland Indians due to left leg irritation. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Derek Fisher, who will play left field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which will bump Yulieski Gurriel and Marwin Gonzalez each up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Astros order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Mike Clevinger at home this evening.
As reported by: Chandler Rome via Twitter Batters from either side exceed a .370 wOBA/xwOBA against Homer Bailey since last year
The Chicago Cubs visit Homer Bailey and the Reds with a 5.1 implied run line that’s a top five mark on tonight’s board. Bailey does not have the highest exit velocity (88.1 mph) or xwOBA (.410), but it’s not pretty with an ERA and estimators all above five. Batters from either side exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. Kris Bryant (150 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Willson Contreras (132 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (137 wRC+, .228 ISO) are the strongest plays. Ben Zobrist (97 wRC+, .152 ISO) has some value at a reasonable cost atop the lineup. He and Addison Russell (.167) are the only batters in the lineup below a .217 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year.
Still several games with weather issues in Friday night's forecast
Kevin’s forecast is updated for Friday night. One game down and several others still have some rain concerns. Players can read the lengthy report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will want to join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for all the latest.
One strong value play in New York Mets lineup (Brandon Nimmo $3.3K or less)
Zack Godley is not usually a guy players should attack, especially in a pitcher’s park, and he really has no platoon split (actually slightly better against LHBs), but there’s one strong value play in the Mets’ lineup that’s difficult to ignore. Brandon Nimmo (153 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) leads off for at $3.3K or less on either site and this man just gets on base. In fact, a look at the Mets’ lineup shows that six of the first seven hitters in the order tonight (omitting Adrian Gonzalez) surprise with a .200+ ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Yes, that includes Asdrubal Cabrera (.201), Devin Mesoraco (.218) and Wilmer Flores (.229). This lineup could be a bit more dangerous than originally though.
Brett Anderson has a board high 93.8 mph aEV this year
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 4.92 implied run line against the ineffective Brett Anderson (.408 xwOBA, 93.8 mph aEV, 11.8 K%). While it may be a surprise to see Curtis Granderson (111 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) atop the lineup against a lefty, he’s really been quite good against them and this particular one has a reverse platoon split for his career and since last season (LHBs .429 xwOBA), though RHBs have hit him well too (.375 wOBA and xwOBA). While Justin Smoak (140 wRC+, .171 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (157 wRC+, .345 ISO) are elite plays, it’s tough to find many bad ones in this lineup in this particular spot.
Ronald Torreyes scratched Friday; Gleyber Torres replaces
Torreyes has been scratched from the New York Yankees original confirmed lineup and will not play in Friday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to a clerical error. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gleyber Torres, who will play second base and slot directly into Torreyes’ vacated ninth spot in the order, which enables the remainder of the Yankees lineup to stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jakob Junis on the road this evening.
As reported by: Mike Mazzeo via Twitter Khris Davis (141 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) gets a reverse platoon, fly ball prone RHP in Toronto
Marco Estrada has been bad this season with an ERA and estimators above five and 12.9% Barrels/BBE in front of a .374 xwOBA. He has a reverse platoon split (RHBs .373 wOBA, .342 xwOBA since last season) and the progressive A’s have jumped all over that, offering five right-handed batters in tonight’s lineup. Khris Davis (141 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) had a big night last night and hits same-handed pitching better anyway. He’s a great choice tonight. Matt Joyce (139 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Matt Olson (162 wRC+, .353 ISO) hit right-handed pitchers so well, that they remain strong plays for $3.5K or less anyway.