DFS Alerts
Left-handed batters have a .402 xwOBA against Ivan Nova since last season
The San Diego Padres are usually a team players want to play pitchers against (83 wRC+, 26.9 K% vs RHP), but even with a 3.54 implied run line, it could be a struggle to get to Ivan Nova (14.4 K% last 30 days, .394 xwOBA this season). There may be some affordable plays from the left-hand side in the San Diego lineup though, because batters from that side have a .366 wOBA and .402 xwOBA against Nova since last season. Eric Hosmer (158 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Travis Jankowski (154 wRC+, .129 ISO) are both above a 150 wRC+ against righties over the last calendar year. Raffy Lopez (126 wRC+, .275 ISO) and Franchy Cordero (116 wRC+, .209 ISO) have exhibited power. None are above $4K on either site.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Lots of short starters (by average workload) followed by weak bullpens
With Max Scherzer down (PPD), only Michael Fulmer and Jacob deGrom have averaged more than six innings per start last two calendar years on tonight’s slate. This season alone gets Mike Clevinger, Charlie Morton and Jakob Junis above that mark as well, but fear not bullpen attackers. The major league worst Kansas City bullpen (4.89 FIP, 6.8 K%) is likely to get in some work with a fly ball and home run prone pitcher facing the Yankees tonight. Dan Straily, Carson Fulmer, Ross Stripling, Matt Moore, Brett Anderson, Drew Pomeranz and Alex Cobb have all averaged fewer than five innings per start this season. The Boston pen is not one to be trifled with (17.7 K-BB%, 3.45 FIP). The Marlins (4.28 FIP), White Sox (4.14 FIP), Rangers (3.99 FIP, 11.8 K-BB%), A’s (4.49 FIP, 10.3 K-BB%) and surprisingly, Dodgers (4.41 FIP) are all among the weaker pens in the league by FIP withe Orioles more mediocre (3.88 FIP, 11.9 K-BB%).
Friday's LAD-WAS game postponed due to rain
The matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals on Friday night has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that tonight’s previously scheduled games will be made up on Saturday, May 19 at 2:05 pm EST as part of a split doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on tonight’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the Washington Nationals via Twitter
Jacob deGrom has the top xwOBA on the board (.239) and does not exceed $10K on either site
Weather cooperating, which it may not, Max Scherzer is the top pitcher on the board…because he’s on the board tonight. He has at least seven strikeouts in every start and only that few his second time out, which is also the only time he did not finish six innings. His strikeout rate is at 40.4%. Not that it much matters at this point, but he’s facing the Dodgers (103 wRC+, 21.6 K% vs RHP). While Scherzer is the top pitcher on the board, he’s just third best by xwOBA (.260). Both Jacob deGrom (.239) and Charlie Morton (.243) beat him by that metric and both have similar 32% strikeout rates, though deGrom has a full point edge in swinging strike rate (14.8% to 13.8%) and may be the top value on the board with a price tag that is just $10K at it’s highest on FanDuel. The reason for this is a short DL stint for a hyper-extended issue which led to a shortened start (46 pitches) and then just a single inning outing (45 pitches) coming out of that, which would seem like an aberration. He hasn’t thrown more than 46 pitches since April 27th, but had previously been going 100+ regularly with great results. He also may have the top matchup on the board (Arizona 78 wRC+, 25.3 K% vs RHP, 29 wRC+ last seven days) in a negative run environment. Morton’s matchup is a bit tougher (Cleveland 142 wRC+, 3.7 K-BB% last seven days) and there’s been some inconsistency in his outings at a higher cost than deGrom without better numbers. He struck out a season high 14 last time out and has a board low 2.7% Barrels/BBE this year. Those are the three elite choices on tonight’s slate. Of course, there are more speculative plays at lower prices. These come at higher risk or not as much upside. Mike Clevinger has cut his walk rate in half (6.7%), is going deeper in games (into the seventh in five of last seven starts) and has a 13.2 SwStr% over the last month. He’s in Houston, but it’s one of the most negative run environments in baseball and the Astros have a very ordinary 101 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Michael Fulmer has allowed 11 ERs and three HRs over his last 10 innings, but velocity, chase rate (40+% last two starts) and swinging strike rate (13.2% last 30 days) are all up. He faces an ailing Seattle offense in a great park for just $6.1K on DraftKings. Blake Snell has struck out just 12 of his last 69 batters with a 35+% hard hit rate in all three of those starts, but has retained an above average SwStr% in every start and costs just $8K against the Angles tonight. Zack Godley has been about league average by strikeouts, ERA and estimators, but faces a Mets lineup without a few key bats in a pitcher’s park. C.C. Sabathia misses enough bats to be useful with elite contact management and costs $7.5K in Kansas City. Jake Arrieta (around $8K in St Louis) is not missing enough bats, but generates tons of weak ground balls and has been pitching deep into games. Michael Wacha is just a five or six inning pitcher for $8K, but the Phillies have a 26.3 K% vs RHP.
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, Michael Fulmer, Blake Snell, CC Sabathia, Jake Arrieta, Michael Wacha, Zack Godley Matt Wisler will start for the Braves on Friday, not Sean Newcomb
Matt Wisler will start for the Braves on Friday, not Sean Newcomb. This really doesn’t mean much in terms of pitching options tonight because Kevin has the same concerns that got this game cancelled last night. What it may do is open up Justin Bour (153 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) as a strong, cheap first base option on DraftKings ($3.6K) against a pitcher who has surrendered a .376 career wOBA to RHBs.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter Other tagged players: Justin Bour Going Right Back to the Well
The Rangers let everyone down last night against James Shields. Thanks to recency bias and a 15-game slate, they will be vastly under-owned across the industry. I see this as a golden opportunity to go right back to the well. Carson Fulmer has allowed a .410+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Joey Gallo benefits from a matchup against a low-strikeout pitcher and Guaranteed Rate Field has been kind to left-handed power.
Home Run Upside at a Discount
The A’s are one of my favorite stacks of the slate. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark (Rogers Centre) and they draw a favorable matchup against Marco Estrada, whose two biggest weaknesses are walks and home runs. Oakland just so happens to draw a lot of walks and hit a lot of home runs. Matt Olson is in a great spot as a one-off target or as part of a full stack. He boasts a .384 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
No Reason for this Ace to be this Cheap
DeGrom only pitched one inning in his last start. There was a one-hour rain delay and when he finally took the mound, he walked the first three batters that he faced. The Mets decided to play it safe and pulled him after the first inning. It doesn’t sound like there was any sort of setback with his shoulder injury, so we can fire him up in all formats tonight. Due to the injury and the two shortened outings, deGrom is only $10,000 on FanDuel and $9,800 on DraftKings. This is far too cheap for a pitcher with a 3.01 SIERA and a 32% strikeout rate. Add in a matchup against a strikeout-happy Diamondbacks’ offense and we have ourselves close to a must play in cash games.
You Get What you Pay for in Life and in DFS
If we take salaries out of the equation, Scherzer is the best pitcher on the board tonight and it’s not particularly close. He is having a career year, which is really saying something given how well he has pitched over the last five seasons. In nine starts, he owns a 2.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 40%. The Dodgers have plenty of talent in their offense, but they also strikeout at a higher rate than we’ve seen in previous years. Their projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. Even though Scherzer is expensive, he’s an elite play in all formats.
Skills vs Salary Out Of Whack
There is definitely some risk, with deGrom struggling in his first appearance off the DL. But, if he is anything close to back to normal tonight, this DK/FRDFT salary is an absolute steal. He would be in the $12k/$24k range in this matchup if he hadn’t been hurt. His pre-DL skills were elite in every way with high strikeouts, low walks and tons of soft contact induced. The Diamondbacks are not a good team right now, and I have to believe the Mets would not be sending deGrom back out there if they had any real reason for concern with his elbow.
Cheap Power
Joyce pops as a value option pretty much any time the A’s face a right handed pitcher. Joyce becomes an even better value option when the game is being played in a hitter friendly environment against a pitcher that struggles with the long ball (2.05 HR/9 this year – 1.38 career). Joyce has hit a HR in two of his last three games and has recorded 10+ DK pts in all three. He’s a cheap way to get some power upside in the OF.
Overlooked Lefty Smasher
Longoria is still an above average offensive player against left handed pitching and has absolutely mashed southpaws over the course of his career (136 wRC+, .237 ISO). Freeland is a slightly above average lefty, and this isn’t an ideal contextual matchup for Longo with the game being played in San Francisco, but he still stands out as a strong value option at a 3B position that tails off fast after the high end options. Longo’s price tag isn’t all that attractive on FanDuel where he’s $3,300 and is best left as a GPP option.
Jesus Is My Homeboy
I’ll admit as a Brewers fan I am a bit of Jesus Aguilar fanboy for how good he’s been this year (132 wRC+, .390 xWOBA). A lot of people will gloss over Aguilar because he doesn’t have the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson but he still makes the list as a secondary option for me at these price tags ($2,800 FD; $3,400 DK). Gibson has been good this year for the Twins but has been allowing a lot of hard contact (40%). Unsurprisingly all that hard contact has lead to a wide split between Gibson’s wOBA (.270) and xWOBA (.323). While I view Aguilar as more of a filler option, I do think the Brewers could be a sneaky stack at the hitter friendly Target Field.
Secondary Option
Man, this one is tough for me. King Felix is popping on projection systems as a top SP2 on multi-SP sites and as a top value on FanDuel but I am hesitant to pull the trigger. There’s no denying that the King’s best days are far behind him and I am just not sure he has shown enough upside to consider rostering him even the best of matchups. Hernandez does have close to the perfect matchup against the disastrous Tigers offense (3.4 implied run total) which is what makes this a tough choice. Outside of the matchup, there’s not much out there to get excited about with Felix – he’s below average in just about every relevant statistical category this year (4.59 SIERA, 20.6 K%, 10.1 BB%, 1.82 HR/9, 8% SwStr%) and there’s nothing pointing to expected improvement. Long story short: Felix is theoretically a strong play on Friday night for his price tag but I prefer looking elsewhere at SP2. Felix is a secondary option for me.
Going Right Back Here Tonight
After the Rangers let everyone down last night, we are likely to see muted ownership on a bigger slate against another bad pitcher. There is nothing but good news in Choo’s skill set against this season. Against right-handed pitching he has below average strikeouts, above average walks and a huge 48% hard hit rate. He has 10 hits in his last eight games, hits at the top of the lineup, and faces a bad pitcher in a good ballpark at a low salary.