DFS Alerts
A Top Play in a Great Matchup
Left-handed hitters have a 40% hard contact rate against Urena this year, and they have posted a .331 wOBA against him. While Urena has been a bit better of late, I still like targeting good LHBs against him, and the Braves have quite a few of them in their lineup. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis will likely all be in the top four, and they make for a great GPP stack. Freeman owns a .405 wOBA against RHP this year and is by far my favorite cash game play of the group.
Great Point Per Dollar Options Against a Gas Can
the Rangers will be chalky again with the gas can Lucas Giolito on the mound for the White Sox. Giolito’s numbers have been discussed at length in this space all year, so we all know by now that he has ugly numbers and almost as many walks as strikeouts. It’s a dangerous proposition with him going up against the big bats in the middle of the order for Texas. Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo lead the way with .365 and .363 wOBA numbers, respectively, against RHP, so they are my two favorite cash game targets. Choo is still far too cheap on all sites and will be popular after his grand slam on Friday.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara Arrrrrrrrr-ing for Some Value
Clayton Richard has held LHBs in check for the better part of multiple seasons now, but he struggles against right-handed hitters, who have made hard contact against him 47% of the time this season. His ground ball rate also drops by 10% against righties. You can instantly cross off any Pirates LHBs here, but the RHBs are in play. Starling Marte has been placed on the disabled list, so he is also out. However, this might give us a shot at some value, especially if the likes of Jose Osuna and Sean Rodriguez draw good lineup spots. It’s a small sample size, but both have massive wOBA numbers against lefties so far this season. I like them as individual value plays in cash games.
Other tagged players: Jose Osuna The Top Mid-Range Pitching Option
I love the setup here for Andrew Heaney. His profile is borderline elite with a 28% strikeout rate, 3.31 SIERA, 3.11 xFIP, and 11.5% swinging strike rate. The fly ball tendencies don’t hurt him in his home ballpark, and they certainly aren’t likely to hurt him against a Rays team that offers very little in the power department. Joey Wendle hit third last night (no offense, Joey, if you are reading this). The Angels also need innings out of Heaney after Nick Tropeano was knocked around on Friday. Heaney is by far my favorite point per dollar arm once we get past the aces tonight, and he is viable on all sites.
Mashing Mookie
Mookie is #mashing. Mookie is the owner of an eye-popping .520 xWOBA which is 55-points better than the second highest xWOBA – Mookie’s teammate JD Martinez. Betts is going to be a tough fit into cash games with the expensive Scherzer as the clear cut SP1 on the main slate. I don’t advocate jamming Mookie into your lineups over Scherzer but rather wanted to write a Mookie blurb to say the following: if rostering an expensive hitter in cash, don’t spend on anyone other than Mookie. I am already seeing some Trout over Mookie love because of Trout’s matchup versus Sergio Romo but the only reason I would play Trout over Mookie would be due to weather concerns.
Young Arm With a Ton of Upside
Sure his 62 K% won’t be sustainable but there is upside in this young arm. He is more of a ground ball pitcher which is good to see and he gets to go up against a Twins lineup that strikes out 26.6% of the time against right handed pitchers. Sure some of the lefties in the Twins lineup can be troublesome, but this park suppresses lefty power and I like the upside at this price.
Power Shift
DraftKings hate for Choo continues on Saturday night as the veteran lefty hitter is priced at a mere $3,500 for a matchup against Lucas Giolito at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago (his $3,200 tag on FanDuel is #nice as well). I mentioned this yesterday in Gallo’s write-up but this is actually a favorable park shift for left handed power as Guaranteed Rate Field is somewhat surprisingly more homer friendly to right field than GlobeLife Park in Arlington. Choo took advantage of the power shift on Friday night as he hit a grand slam to right field and gets another good matchup against Giolito who owns a 6.60 SIERA (!!) through eight starts this year.
Who Needs Sustainability
Things that are not sustainable: Nick Kingham’s 35.6% strikeout rate and 2.17 SIERA. But season long sustainability doesn’t mean a whole lot in DFS and it means even less when pitching against the terrible San Diego Padres offense. The Padres lead the league in strikeout rate versus RHP (26.8%) and are 26th in the league with a 82 wRC+ versus righties. Kingham more closely resembles an “average” Major League pitcher than the stud he has been through two Big League starts but even average pitchers can have monster games against this anemic offense. Kingham is my favorite salary conscious SP2 of the slate.
Fooling Nobody
It’s not very often I get excited to roster a player on the White Sox but it’s also not very often that they get a matchup against Ariel Jurado. Jurado is a young 22 year old righty who prior to his Saturday night start against the White Sox hasn’t made his way past AA for the Rangers. Jurado owns a 2.57 ERA (5.31 FIP, 4.96 xFIP) in AA this year through six starts but the number that really jumps out at me is his 12.9% strikeout rate. The youngster is having difficulty fooling hitters down in AA which typically does not translate well for the Majors. The only second base option I have projected higher than Moncada on Saturday night is Ozzie Albies but Albies is significantly more expensive, making Moncada the better pt/$ fantasy play.
Buy-Low on Paul Goldschmidt Against a Lefty?
Let’s start with the obvious – 2018 is off to a rough start for Paul Goldschmidt. Only batting .203 with 4 HR and a strikingly low .OPS of .681, there aren’t a lot of positives thus far for Goldschmidt’s offensive effort. If there is one bright spot, however, it is that he has been much better against lefties – batting .289 (compared to .168 against RH pitchers), with 3 of his 4 HR’s against lefties as well. This is consistent with Goldschmidt’s career numbers where he has dominated southpaws, wracking up a whopping OPS of 1.031 throughout his career. Also note that Goldschmidt’s struggles are being reflected in his price – 3500 on Fanduel and 4100 on Draftkings are about as low as Goldy’s price has been in the past couple of seasons. Facing a pitcher today in Steven Matz who has allowed a .360 wOBA to hitters from the right side, this could be a great buy-low spot for Paul Goldschmidt, as some positive regression is most likely in his future.
Look for the Rangers to Stay Hot Against Giolito
When looking at offenses to stack, finding the pitcher with both a high BB rate and low K rate can be key – today, Lucas Giolito fits the bill. Not only is the K rate (15.6%) the second lowest on the slate and the BB rate (11.8%) the third highest on the slate, but he has allowed a wOBA of .423 to LH hitters and .343 to hitters from the right side. Throw in the guarantee of the 9th inning AB’s for the road team, and the Rangers look like a great stack option tonight. The lefties – Gallo, Mazara, Choo – profile best here, although all Rangers are in play – look for them to stay hot after putting up 12 runs on these same White Sox last night.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara Cheap Arm You Should Trust
Heany has been great this year and you don’t want to miss out. He has a 28% strikeout rate along with a 3.31 SIERA. Vegas also agrees that this is a good spot for Heany, he is a -177 favorite and the Rays implied total is only 3.64. He also is ranked 5th in PIQ rating among pitchers on this slate.
Cheap Exposure To One Of The Best Offenses
On a slate where I will be looking to pay up at pitcher a lot, I love getting cheap value plays for some of the best offenses. Zobrist will likely bat first and has the 8th PIQ rating on the slate. He is cheap around the industry and is an easy way to get exposure to this Cubs offense. Zobrist isn’t the sexiest play but if there was a park he would get a home run in and flash some upside, it’s Great American Ballpark.
Choo Choo This Value Play Keeps Chugging Along
Sorry for the corny title but it’s really the truth with Shin-Soo Choo. Choo has been way too cheap all season and is still too cheap in a great matchup against Giolito. Choo has the 9th rated PIQ rating on the slate and has a .450 CXwOBA. Wellington Castillo will likely be behind the plate too which give him some stolen base upside as well. Choo is one of my favorite value plays on the slate and is part of one of my favorite offenses on today’s slate
Target Nick Kingham Against the Padres
If you are looking for a solid value at SP today, look no further than Pirates rookie Nick Kingham, who squares off against the Padres at home. Kingham has been lights-out in his first two MLB starts, sporting an amazing 35.6 K% compared to just a 2.2% BB rate, leading to his slate-low SIERA of 2.18. Obviously these types of numbers aren’t sustainable in the long-run, but there is no reason to fear the matchup today against a Padres team with the second highest K rate and second lowest ISO on the slate. At just $7600 on Draftkings and $8600 on Fanduel, look for Kingham to build on his strong start as he provides a high-floor option that will allow you to fit in some power bats as well.