DFS Alerts
What Does A Guy Have To Do?
I apologize if you’re tired of seeing Justin Smoak listed as a Core Play, but I just can’t understand what he has to do to get his salary raised to an appropriate level. All he does is go out and hit every day, and the salary doesn’t budge. He gets Andrew Triggs tonight, a decent pitcher, but nothing special against lefties. Since the start of 2017, Smoak has a 40% hard hit rate and .248 ISO against right-handed pitching. While his season started a little slowly, he looks fine right now, with two home runs and four extra base hits in his last four games.
My Choice At The Top
It’s a tough and wide open slate for pitching. There is no sure fire ace, but the guy I feel best about, based both on current skills and matchup is Tyler Skaggs at home against Tampa. His 25% strikeout rate ranks 3rd on this slate. He has a solid 7.1% walk rate along with 52% ground balls and has just one bad start this season. He has three straight games of 7+ K’s and gets a beatable opponent in his friendly home ballpark. I’m starting my cash game with Skaggs and have him at the top of my tournament list.
A Top One-Off GPP Selection
I don’t love a ton of team stacks tonight, so I will highlight an individual mid-range play that I do really like, and that’s Franchy Cordero. He has flashed a ton of power potential so far this season, and he draws a favorable matchup against a pitcher with extreme splits in Chad Kuhl. The Pittsburgh starter has allowed a .377 wOBA and 39% hard contact rate to LHBs in his brief MLB career, while Cordero has posted a .382 wOBA against RHP this season. It’s a great combination, and Cordero will fly under the radar tonight. Fire him up as a strong GPP one-off play.
A Low Owned Late Night Stack
The Giants usually don’t come to mind as a GPP stack, as their home park is lousy for offensive production, their games always start late, and the lineup isn’t all that imposing. However, they have been swinging the bats much better of late, and I like tonight’s matchup against a low strikeout RHP in Chad Bettis. The Colorado starter has decent surface numbers, but his advanced metrics are ugly and he allows a fair amount of hard contact. Brandon Belt has been elite against RHP so far this year and is my favorite play here, while you can get some value in a guy like Brandon Crawford as well. Buster Posey is an elite catcher play on DK, where you need someone from the position. Those three bats make a nice little late night sneaky stack for you tonight.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford Shields Your Eyes
James Shields has pitched better over his last few starts, but the results are nothing more than some good fortune on the BABIP front. He’s still a gas can, my friends. Shields is walking nearly as many hitters as he is striking out, and he still has a SIERA and xFIP hovering around 5.50. Shields remains a high fly ball pitcher, and I love targeting power bats against him. This is a great matchup for Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara, and maybe even Rougned Odor can get it going here. It’s not often that you see Texas owning one of the top team totals of the night, but they are in that vicinity this evening. Stack ‘em up.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor Time to Buy Low On a Top Arm?
There is no question that it has been a bad start to the season for Chris Archer. Nobody would dispute that. However, when you look deep into the numbers, it’s clear that he has been one of the worst bad luck victims in baseball so far. Opponents have a .331 BABIP and 16% HR/FB rate against him, both of which are much higher than his career (and league) average. His strikeouts are down even though his swinging strike rate is higher than it was last year. The high hard contact rate allowed has something to do with the numbers, but there’s no reason that he should have an ERA that is two runs higher than his SIERA and xFIP. I don’t love the matchup against the Angels, but the price (especially on DK) is just too cheap to ignore. I’ll dabble with Archer in GPP formats tonight.
The Top Arm on a Thin Pitching Slate
Despite the fact that we have nine games on the main slate this evening, it’s a tough night for which to figure out the top pitching options. I’ll give Tyler Skaggs the nod as the top overall option. He draws a favorable matchup against a Rays team that really lacks power in the middle of the lineup, and the park is also favorable for pitchers at night. The Rays have a very low team total here, as well. Skaggs has been pitching very well so far in 2018, with a well above average strikeout rate to go along with an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP all comfortably in the mid-threes. Fire him up as a top arm on this slate in all formats.
Still one potential trouble spot in the evening forecast
Every game is precious on a four game slate and Kevin’s evening forecast suggests there may be a remaining problem area tonight. Read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can join him on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for important last minute updates.
Salary Savings Needed
The pitching change in Miami has given us a couple values with the Dodgers lefties. We don’t know a lot about Elieser Hernandez, but he is raw and unlikely to be ready to make a huge splash in the majors as a fly ball righty. Pederson is showing excellent plate skills this season with just 15% strikeouts and 14% walks, adding on base upside to his power ability.
Cubs send four above a 130 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year against Brandon McCarthy (14 ER last 8.1 IP)
The Chicago Cubs have a second best 4.82 implied run line against Brandon McCarthy, who has allowed 14 ERs over his last 8.1 innings and has exceeded 5.1 innings just once this year. His 6.1 SwStr% and .361 xwOBA are both worst on the board. Since last season (just over 280 batters faced from each side), RHBs have a .344 wOBA against him, while LHBs are at just .304, though xwOBA tightens the gap to .323 and .309. Stack you Cubbies, weather permitting. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber each exceed a 130 wRC+ and .230 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, while Javier Baez (101 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Ian Happ (106 wRC+, .255 ISO) have flashes significant power as well. Contreras (377), Albert Almora (233), Bryant (211), Rizzo (211) and Addison Russell all top a 200 wRC+ over the last week as well.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon McCarthy, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Addison Russell Dodgers send a potent, but slumping lineup against Rule 5 pick Elieser Hernandez
Every single batter in the Dodger lineup has a 107 or better wRC+ and only Chase Utley (.166) and Justin Turner (.167) are below a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Vegas adjusted the Dodger run line up half a run from 3.89 to 4.37 with the pitcher change, but even that is just fourth best on an eight team board. Elieser Hernandez costs the minimum on DraftKings. The Rule 5 pick was given just a 40 Future Value grade and has basically jumped from A ball to the majors this year, throwing three innings over two relief outings over the last week for his first major league action. If players are looking for just the possibility of positive points paired with Verlander or Sale, the Dodgers have a team 68 wRC+ over the last seven days and might not know who he is either. The Miami bullpen is likely to get some work in here. They have a 5.43 ERA, but the largest positive gap in baseball from a 4.30 FIP that’s still a bottom six mark in the league. Important to note as well, Cody Bellinger (136 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only batter priced above $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Chase Utley, Justin Turner, Elieser Hernandez Tyler Chatwood has the second highest xwOBA (.341), but lowest aEV (85.5 mph) on the board
The Atlanta Braves are the last of three teams above four implied runs (4.67) on what is now a four game slate against Tyler Chatwood, who has a 22.9 K%, but an 8.0 SwStr% that’s second lowest on the board. His ERA is more than two runs below estimators that would be even higher if the strikeout rate dropped, due to a 3.7 HR/FB. His BABIP is .269, but the Cubs’ defense as a whole is at .265 allowed. His .341 xwOBA is second worst on the board, though his 85.5 mph aEV is the best. Chatwood has generated ground balls above a 55% clip against batters from either side since the beginning of 2017, but does have a substantial platoon split (LHBs .356 wOBA, RHBs .307). None the less, Tyler Flowers (94 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) could be a top catcher bargain for $2.7K or less with Ryan Flaherty (110 wRC+, .109 ISO) perhaps playable despite batting eighth under current conditions at a similar cost. Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .422 xwOBA, .232 ISO) is the top dog.
Other tagged players: Tyler Flowers, Ryan Flaherty, Tyler Chatwood Wednesday's NYY-WAS game has been postponed due to rain
The matchup between the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals on Wednesday night has been postponed due to forecasted rain throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that tonight’s previously scheduled games will be made up on Monday, June 18 at 5:05 pm EST as part of a doubleheader, though Game 1 will only be a resumption of Tuesday’s suspended contest. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on tonight’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Chelsea Janes via Twitter
Red Sox exceed five implied runs despite a 33.7 K%, 2.55 SIERA and .266 xwOBA for Trevor Cahill
Trevor Cahill has a 2.25 ERA supported by a 2.55 SIERA and .266 xwOBA. He has a 59.6 GB%, has struck out one-third of batters faced and has gone at least six innings in three of four starts. This does not sound like a pitcher players should want to attack, yet the Red Sox have a board high 5.07 implied run line that only two other teams are within a run of. One issue might be a 90 mph aEV and another might Fenway park against a team with a 114 wRC+ at home and 115 wRC+ (18.6 K%, 14 HR/FB) vs RHP. Cahill may even be worth a contrarian look for just $5.1K on DraftKings, though he is making his first start in 11 days due to an elbow issues and Oakland may wish to be cautious even if he does pitch well. While RHBs have a .376 wOBA against Cahill since last season, xwOBA drops that 65 points, giving him virtually no platoon split. J.D. Martinez (152 wRC+, .424 xwOBA, .341 ISO, 48.3 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) is worth more than his cost against just about any pitcher. He and Mookie Betts (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) breach $5K on either site. Mitch Moreland (116 wRC+) is second in the linup in both xwOBA (.408) and ISO (.244) against RHP over the last calendar year. Cahill may also be a pitcher the Red Sox can run on (premium players have access to Stolen Base Threat Ratings) and Eduardo Nunez (121 wRC+, .179 ISO) could be the best prospect for that.
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts, Trevor Cahill, Eduardo Nunez Walker Buehler offers exposure to one of two 30%+ K rates at less than $11K tonight
Walker Buehler is off to a great start (31.4 K%, 2.95 SIERA, .242 xwOBA without a single Barrel in four starts) and is likely to have tremendous ownership, at least on DK, as the only pitcher between $6.5K and $11K. Players get access to a 30+% strikeout rate for $8.5K against a lineup with a combined .298 wOBA and .140 ISO since last season, according to PlateIQ. If an 8.1 SwStr% is a concern, he’s been at exactly 10.8% in each of his last two starts, though that still doesn’t project a strikeout rate that high. The other issue is that he hasn’t exceeded 95 pitches in a start yet, but has been efficient enough to complete six innings in each of his last two and given the quality of the matchup, that should be the expectation here as well. If cheap bats are a necessity, Justin Bour (153 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) costs just $3K on DraftKings, though Buehler has shown a small sample reverse split so far.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour