DFS Alerts
Lots of value in the Pittsburgh lineup against Eric Lauer (RHBs .483 wOBA, 51 Hard%)
The Pittsburgh lineup has just a 4.30 implied run line, but RHBs have massacred Eric Lauer through four starts (.483 wOBA, .429 xwOBA, 51 Hard%, 29.2 GB%). There could be some massive value in Pirate bats, though players should realize that Lauer has been out of the game prior to the fourth inning in two of his four starts and the Padres have a quality pen behind him. The damage may be done by that point though. Max Moroff (98 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) costs the minimum out of the leadoff spot on FanDuel. Francisco Cervelli (123 wRC+, .200 ISO) bats third for less than $4K. Sean Rodriguez (138 wRC+, .243 ISO) costs less than $3K. The park in Pittsburgh suppresses right-handed power, but not hits and offense overall.
Other tagged players: Maxwell Moroff, Sean Rodriguez
Good Matchup, Good Ballpark, Good Play
Kuhl has shown a little more strikeout upside this season. In eight starts, he owns a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. While he’s a fly-ball pitcher with a high strikeout rate, this is is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and he’s facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. The projected lineup for the Padres has a .271 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 30%. Kuhl isn’t the sexy play in this slate and he’s likely going to garner a lot of ownership, but rightly so. He’s affordable, he’s pitching at home, and he has the best matchup on the board.
Expensive, but the top Pitching Option of the Slate
With Chris Archer feeling a bit underpriced and Tyler Skaggs feeling a bit overpriced, there’s a chance this could lead to lower ownership. In eight starts this season, Skaggs owns a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 52%. The Rays’ lineup looks better than it did earlier this season, but they are still an exploitable matchup. Six of their projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against lefties and Skaggs gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium.
Cole Hamels is the highest priced pitcher, but there may be some value in White Sox lineup
Cole Hamels has the highest price tag on the board ($10.8K on DK), yet the Chicago White Sox have a 4.35 implied run line that’s smack in the middle of the board. Their 27 K% vs LHP this year is the highest split on the board and PlateIQ (now with conditional formatting and player ratings for premium subscribers) confirms a 26.4 K% against southpaws since last season for tonight’s confirmed lineup. Hamels, however, has just a 20.9 K% over the last month and has only exceeded five Ks twice in his last seven starts. The White Sox line up entirely right-handed and such batters do have a .347 xwOBA and 39.9 Hard% against him since last season. There could be some unrecognized value in the top half of this lineup in Tim Anderson (133 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jose Abreu (158 wRC+, .263 ISO), Matt Davidson (122 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Welington Castillo (135 wRC+, .207 ISO). Of that group, only Abreu exceeds $3.7K on DraftKings or $3.3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Cole Hamels, Matt Davidson, Welington Castillo Daily Bullpen Alert: San Diego unit one of the better pens players may not know about
David Price, Jeff Samardzija, Cole Hamels, and Chris Archer are the only pitchers on the board to average six innings or more per start over the last calendar year. None of them have reached that level this season. In fact, Samardija is one of three guys (Andrew Triggs and Eric Lauer) averaging less than five innings per start. The highest average innings per start this year belong to Kevin Gausman, Chad Bettis, Matt Boyd, and James Shields. Expect to see a lot of bullpens tonight. With Eric Lauer averaging a board low four innings per start, the San Diego bullpen could see the most work, but they’ve actually been one of the top units in the league (2.1 fWAR, 3.24 FIP, 16.7 K-BB% are all top six marks). They are the only active bullpen tonight which can make such a claim, though the pen has been a source of strength for the Red Sox (2 fWAR, 3.45 FIP, 17.7 K%), Pirates (1.6, 3.19, 16.1%) and Mariners (1.1, 3.91, 18.2%) as well. On the other end, the A’s (4.48) and White Sox (4.16) have the lowest active bullpen FIPs tonight. Both have bottom eight K-BB% marks as well. The Tigers have a FIP above four (4.07) with the second worst K-BB (10.3%) in the majors, but Boyd has been working deep into games, as mentioned. With Max Fried a last minute replacement, who hasn’t reached six innings in any outing at any level this year, the Atlanta bullpen should be noted as well. They have a 3.71 FIP, but with a 10.8 K-BB% that’s third worst in baseball.
Other tagged players: David Price, Jeff Samardzija, Cole Hamels, Chris Archer, Andrew Triggs, Kevin Gausman, Chad Bettis, Matthew Boyd, James Shields, Max Fried Vince Velasquez has a 5.05 ERA, but 20.2 K-BB% and best xwOBA (.291) on the board
Calling Thursday’s pitching options interesting might be an understatement. Difficult might be accurate as well. Cole Hamels and Tyler Skaggs (.295 xwOBA is third best on tonight) are the only two pitchers to reach the $10K price point (both on DraftKings). Hamels faces the White Sox (27 K% vs LHP highest split on the board), but has exceeded five strikeouts twice in his last seven starts. The top matchups on the board go to pitchers hosting the Rockies (Jeff Samardzija), Rangers (James Shields), and Padres (Chad Kuhl), which inspires very little to no confidence. Only five pitchers exceed a 10.5 SwStr% with Chris Archer (13.9%) the only one above 12.2%. He faces the Angels (107 wRC+, 20.2 K% vs RHP), but may still be undervalued for just $6.9K on DraftKings tonight. Vince Velasquez (28.1 K%) is the only pitcher to exceed a 25.1 K%. He faces the Cardinals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) in a negative run environment in St Louis at a reasonable price. He has an ERA above five despite a 20.2 K-BB% and struck out a season high 12 last time out. His .291 xwOBA is lowest on the board. Marco Gonzales is at home against Detroit. He also has an ERA above five with an 18.7 K-BB% due to a .405 BABIP. He’s throwing more curveballs this year, but has a 44.4% 95+ mph EV and still has more adjustments to make, though there is some upside in this start. Mike Soroka is a highly touted rookie, who has, who has the second highest swinging strike rate on the board (12.2%) and costs less than $7K on DraftKings, but has not exceeded 90 pitches in any of his three starts, nor has he completed five innings in either of his last two. Luke Weaver faces the Phillies (26.5 K% vs RHP is third highest split tonight) and is just $6.2K on FanDuel. There’s also David Price (20.9 K%) against the Orioles for less than $8.5K, but he’s completed six innings just once over his last six starts and Baltimore has the highest wRC+ on the board (147) over the last week.
Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl, Chris Archer, Cole Hamels, David Price, James Shields, Luke Weaver, Marco Gonzales, Mike Soroka, Tyler Skaggs Easy Night To Pay For An Elite Bat
With no high priced pitchers and plenty of value, I’m finding it easy to pay for a high end bat. Mookie Betts get the nod for me with his elite mix of contact, speed and power against a pitcher who has always struggled allowing home runs to right-handed bats. Betts leads off for one of the best offenses and can help you in every scoring category.
He's Still Good
This is a slate where I will spread out at SP2 in tournaments. Please don’t see this is as a lock button for Archer. There is a very tightly bunched group of secondary pitching options. When you look at the skills, the drop in strikeouts is concerning for Archer against a low strikeout opponent, but it’s been entirely against left-handed batters. His strikeout rate to righties is still at 30% this season. Home runs will continue to be an issue, but this is a nice ballpark for his pitching style and there’s no reason to think someone with his skills and track record will continue to have everything go against him.
Samardzija offers upside at his price
On a grim pitching slate Thursday, we’re looking for that upside from a pitcher who can help us win a GPP. Jeff Samardzija checks those boxes tonight facing off against an overrated Rockies offense in a pitchers ballpark at San Francisco. The Rockies have really struggled against righties this season, with an ISO of .163 and a wOBA of .293, not good. Samardzija is 5th on the slate with a K prediction of 6 but is striking out batters at a 24% clip while the Rockies are striking out over 24.5% against right handed pitchers this year. Vegas and sharp bettors seem to like the Giants as well, the Rockies opened with a team total of 4 and that has already dropped to 3.7 while their line has already moved in the Giants favor 26 cents from -109 to -138. Samardzija offers some upside at a very cheap price
Attack The Attackable
There aren’t a lot of clearly bad pitchers on tonight’s slate. But James Shields is the bottom of the barrel. He has the lowest strikeout rate on this slate by a wide margin, along with awful control against lefties and a weak bullpen behind him. Shin-Soo Choo is the strongest value for Texas, Joey Gallo is the highest upside, but Nomar Mazara is the first Ranger I’m looking to target with his hard hits steadily rising year after year and a prime lineup spot for a team that is at the top of my list tonight.
FanDuel Price Is Too Low
If you’re playing cash games on FanDuel tonight, I really like the floor/value of Travis Jankowski against Chad Kuhl. Kuhl continues to struggle with left-handed hitters and has a .400 wOBA with a .338 ISO against them this season. He’s only getting 13% soft contact against lefties and has a below average strikeout to walk ratio. Jankowski has been great against right-handed pitching in a small sample size this season. He has a .445 wOBA with an 8.7% strikeout rate and a 15.2% walk rate. His 90.4% contact rate gives him a nice floor in this matchup, and with his leadoff spot on the road, he should see at least four at bats tonight.
Hope He Hits 4th Again
Jose Osuna hit fourth for the Pirates against a lefty yesterday, and I’m hoping he draws another good lineup spot tonight. Since being called up last season, Osuna has a .239 ISO with an 84% contact rate against left-handed pitching, and a lot of the contact is medium to hard. He’s cheap across the industry tonight, and I’m not too afraid of the matchup with Eric Lauer. He’s posted a .476 wOBA with a .317 ISO and a 53.1% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. I like the Pirates tonight, but they’re a hard team to figure out, as Osuna and Diaz are both really cheap and they’re the two guys I’m going to target the most.
Above Average Against Sinkers
Aaron Sanchez has really struggled with left-handed hitters, and he’s just not been the same since returning from injury last season. He has a .388 wOBA with a very low 10.9% strikeout rate against lefties this season. He’s still doing an above average job on getting soft contact and groundballs, and that’s the only thing that concerns me. Joyce, Lowrie, Olson, and Davis have been really good against sinkers since the start of 2017, and with Sanchez throwing them 39% of the time, I think they’re a sneaky stack here. Joyce is just too cheap for his lineup spot and upside in this matchup, and he has at least one home run in three of his last five games.
Nice Floor In This Matchup
I feel like I’m going to be on an island today, but I really like this spot for Chad Bettis. The Giants offense continues to be awful, and they just haven’t shown any life against right-handed pitching this season. Brandon Belt is the only hitter with an ISO over .180 and a wOBA over .350 against righties so far in 2018. Overall, San Francisco’s projected starters have a .119 ISO with a .302 wOBA and a 23.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Bettis isn’t a high strikeout guy, but he limits the damage and usually pitches deeper into games. He’s good at getting soft contact ground balls, so I could see him going seven innings with one earned run and five strikeouts with a win.
High Upside Value Option
I always like to look for upside with my cheaper pitcher, and that’s exactly what we get with Vincent Velasquez tonight. The Cardinals only project to have two left-handed hitters tonight, which leaves six righties and the pitcher. Velasquez has a .228 wOBA with a .061 ISO and a 31.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He also has a very impressive -2.3% hard to soft contact ratio versus righties. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ projected starters have a .168 ISO with a .327 wOBA with a 22.9% strikeout against right-handed pitching this season.