DFS Alerts

Daily Bullpen Alert: Weather could play a factor

The big three (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale) all average more than six and a half innings per start over the last two calendar years, making those bullpens likely for the smallest workloads tonight. Although, an interesting scenario could develop with potential weather issues in Washington where players could see more of a mediocre Washington bullpen (though they have a top seven 16.3 K-BB%) and great Yankee one (24.7 K-BB%) should there be a lengthy delay tonight. The same could be said in Atlanta for the Cubs and Braves, though Brandon McCarthy barely averages more than five innings anyway. The Cubs have the highest negative margin between their pen ERA (2.66) and their FIP (3.80) due to an 11.9 K-BB%. The Braves have a league worst 13.3 BB% that pushes both their xFIP and SIERA well above four. The Miami bullpen will likely be at it early for Elisier Hernandez too. The complete opposite of the Cubs, they have a 5.43 ERA, but the largest positive gap from a 4.30 FIP that’s still a bottom six mark in the league. Garrett Richards has averaged fewer than five innings per start the last two calendar years. The Angels are a mediocre pen almost any way it’s looked at, but are one of the few teams these days that don’t seem to have a multi-inning weapon. Walker Buehler has not exceeded 95 pitches, but has been very efficient. The Dodger pen has a 4.39 FIP partially due to the unexpected troubles of their closer this year. Lastly, Trevor Cahill has not pitched in 11 days due to an elbow issue, but has completed six innings in three of four starts this year. Should they be cautious, the A’s have several multi-inning options. Only Petit, Treinen and Trevino have thrown innings the last two days (all two innings each).

More than half of tonight's pitchers exceed a 28% K rate, just two above a .302 xwOBA

Extreme may be an accurate way to describe Wednesday night’s five game slate, or at least the pitching choices available on it. Max Scherzer (40.4 K%), Justin Verlander (34.5 K%) and Chris Sale (34.2 K%) are all available between $11K to $12.8K on either site. FanDuel has a wider range of mid-priced options, but DraftKings only has one pitcher priced between $6.5K to $11.8K. That pitcher, Walker Buehler (31.4 K%) and Trevor Cahill (33.7 K%) puts 50% of the slate above a 30% strikeout rate. Garrett Richards (28.8 K%) is available for just $5.8K on DK against the Astros. Brandon McCarthy and Tyler Chatwood are the only two pitchers on the board (both in the same game) with an xwOBA above .311 this season. Remove Elieser Hernandez’s three innings and that number drops to .302 and that game (Cubs Braves) carries some PPD risk according to Kevin's early forecast (as does the Yankees Nationals). If that game in Atlanta were to be washed out, it would leave the Boston Red Sox (5.06) as the only team with an implied run line above four runs.

Way Too Cheap

Richards is $5,800 on DraftKings?

Richards is $5,800 on DraftKings?!?

Richards is $5,800 on DraftKings!!!

Richards is $5,800 on DraftKings?

Richards is $5,800 on DraftKings?!?

Richards is $5,800 on DraftKings!!!

Richards is one of the most talented pitchers taking the mound tonight. While he does draw a difficult matchup against the Astros, he is pitching at home in a ballpark that favors run prevention. In eight starts this season, Richards has a 3.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a ground ball rate of 60%. These are elite numbers people. Under no circumstances should a pitcher of this caliber be priced at $5,800.

Hard to go Wrong with this Southpaw

Sale is having another tremendous season. It’s amazing how good Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, and Kershaw have been for so long. We’ve seen a number of pitchers have a good season or two and then regress, but these four have been dominant for years. In nine starts this season, Sale owns a 2.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% and a walk rate of 5%. We know the A’s have some firepower in their lineup, but they struggle against high-strikeout lefties (see: James Paxton). Oakland’s projected lineup has a strikeout rate 24% against southpaws this season.

Eugenio Suarez (sore ankle) scratched Wednesday; Alex Blandino replaces

Suarez has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup with the San Francisco Giants due to a sore ankle. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Alex Blandino, who will play third base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which will bump Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Tucker Barnhart all up one batting position, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Reds order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Andrew Suarez on the road this afternoon.

Edwin Encarnacion (neck, back) scratched Wednesday; Erik Gonzalez replaces

Encarnacion has been scratched from the Cleveland Indians original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Detroit Tigers due to back spasms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Erik Gonzalez, who will third base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which will bump Brandon Guyer up two spots to fifth and also enable Jose Ramirez to serve as the designated hitter. There obviously hasn’t been any drastic changes to this Indians lineup, especially at the top, but still be sure to check out the updated batting order on the Starting Lineups page as Cleveland faces off against left-hander Ryan Carpenter this afternoon.

Mike Moustakas (132 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) faces a struggling Jake Faria

The Rays and Royals are both in the upper middle of the board as two of six teams between 4.6 and 4.9 implied runs this afternoon (four are above five) despite only Mike Moustakas (132 wRC+, .284 ISO) and C.J. Cron (108 wRC+, .203 ISO) the only batters in either lineup to combine a wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last calendar year. No other batter (either lineup) even reaches a 110 wRC+ individually over that span. Salvador Perez (93 wRC+, .204 ISO) is the only other one exceeding a .180 ISO. Both batters are fine plays this afternoon with both pitchers at a .330 xwOBA or above against batters from either side since last season. Both pitchers have ERAs above five and an xwOBA above .370 overall this season with a very similar aEV around 89.5. Faria is the more talented arm with a strikeout rate (19.3%) seven points higher, but that’s still well below what he accomplished last year.

Matt Carpenter drops to seventh against a pitcher (Lance Lynn) with a large platoon split

The Minnesota Twins and St Louis Cardinals are both in the upper middle of the board as two of six teams between 4.6 and 4.9 implied runs this afternoon (four are above five) despite Mile Mikolas being the second highest priced pitcher on the board ($11K on DraftKings). He’s missed bats at a below average rate (18.9 K%, 8.8 SwStr%), but an 86 mph aEV has driven a .307 xwOBA. The strongest appeal being that he’s pitched at least into the seventh in each of his last six starts. It’s a high price to pay considering the strikeout rate and opposing team run line. He has held batters from either side below a .300 actual and .320 xwOBA this year. Eddie Rosario (141 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Max Kepler (107 wRC+, .209 ISO) are the two biggest threats he’ll face in the top half of the lineup. Lance Lynn is missing bats at a league average rate (22 K%, 10.8 SwStr%), but with just two walks over his last two starts, he still has a 15.2 BB% this season. A significant platoon split, LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA, while RHBs are below .300. Yet, it seems his old team is doing him a favor starting the lineup with four RHBs. The struggling Dexter Fowler (122 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a -26 wRC+ over the last week and bats fifth. Matt Carpenter (112 wRC+, .206 ISO, 43.6 Hard%) drops to seventh. Paul DeJong (123 wRC+, .226 ISO) bumps up to third.

Blue Jays and Mets both have low implied run lines, but significant weather concerns

The New York Mets (vs J.A. Happ) and Toronto Blue Jays (vs Zack Wheeler) are two of five teams with implied run lines below four on the afternoon slate with two pitchers, who could be useful except that the weather is currently graded ORANGE by Kevin. Happ has a 29.2 K%, yet still an ERA near five due to the nine HRs he’s allowed (eight to RHBs). He has a 90.1 mph aEV and 10.1% Barrels/BBE. Strikeouts and home runs are the rewards and punishment for pitching up in the zone with a mediocre fastball. With Yoenis Cespedes finally reaching the DL, he faces a diminished Mets lineup with Amed Rosario (124 wRC+, .200 ISO) the only batter to reach a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against southpaws over the last calendar year. Happ is below $9.5K on either site. Wheeler has been extremely hit or miss in his six starts (seven or more or three or fewer strikeouts each three times). He costs just $7K on FanDuel. However, despite the DH loss and low implied run line, the first five batters in the Toronto lineup all have at least a 120 wRC+ with an ISO above .210 against RHP over the last calendar year.

Trevor Bauer (25.9 K%, .302 xwOBA) is by far the most expensive pitcher on the afternoon board

The Detroit Tigers (3.63) are one of five teams below four implied runs this afternoon against the highest priced pitcher on the board, Trevor Bauer, who’s price tag reaches $12.8K on DraftKings ($3.5K less on FanDuel) with only one other arm (Miles Mikolas) within $3.5K on either site. There is a patch towards with cheap right-handed bats in Pittsburgh. Bauer has a 25.9 K% with a 3.00 ERA and .302 xwOBA, but non-FIP estimators nearly a run higher due to a 6.7 HR/FB that is likely to regression. That may not be today though, facing a lineup with a .277 wOBA and .130 ISO with a 25.6 K% against RHP since last season according to PlateIQ. Not a single batter in the Detroit lineup can claim to combine an wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last calendar year, though Nick Castellanos (109 wRC+, .199 ISO) comes extremely close.

This Kid Is Good

It’s all about the Braves and Cubs tonight, and when looking to spend up, it’s hard to find a reason to fade Albies. He hits at the top of the lineup in the only good offensive game of the night. He shown huge power with 13 HR and lots of speed with 6 SB. If he sees a pitch to hit, he can do damage with it, and if he gets walked, he will score runs.

Francisco Lindor (325 wRC+ last seven days) remains in the cleanup spot against another lefty

The Cleveland Indians are expected to produce more offense than any other team this afternoon (5.37 implied run line) against Ryan Carpenter, who just made his first major league start at the age of 27 on April 1st. It lasted three innings. Without a minor league strikeout rate above 19% prior to reaching AAA in 2016, he’s been at 24.1% over his last 197.1 innings at that level. The Tribe mauled another Detroit lefty last night and Francisco Lindor (148 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) remains in the cleanup spot (325 wRC+, 58.8 Hard% last seven days) even with Edwin Encarnacion (127 wRC+, .256 ISO) returning to the lineup behind him. Jose Ramirez (169 wRC+, .297 ISO) is the other high upside bat, though the Cleveland lineup also has potential value for less than $3K at both the top and bottom. Rajai Davis (73 wRC+, .102 ISO) leads off again. Brandon Guyer (120 wRC+, .180 ISO) hit a grand slam last night. Roberto Perez (142 wRC+, .279 ISO, 47.5 Hard%) has been more potent against southpaws than people might think. While they may only see today’s starter for one appearance, Detroit has one of the worst bullpens in the majors behind him (4.67 xFIP).

The Pirates have a 5.07 implied run line without a RHB above $3.3K on either site

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last of four teams that Vegas has above five runs (5.07) this afternoon. Hector Santiago has an ERA and estimators well above five with most of his work coming out of the bullpen this year. While he’s had a standard or no platoon split for most of his career, it’s been completely reversed since last season. He’s faced 101 LHBs, who have a .531 wOBA (.457 xwOBA), while RHBs have a .338 xwOBA that’s near his actual career wOBA against them. Not necessarily buying into the small sample size, the Pirates load six RHBs into the lineup, though Starling Marte is not one of them. While Corey Dickerson is a league average bat (100 wRC+) against same-handed pitching over the last calendar year, both he and Gregory Polanco (the other LHB) have an ISO below .140 against same-handed pitching over that span. The really interesting thing is that they are the only two bats in the lineup above $3.3K on either site. While there aren’t very many high priced options, Pittsburgh bats will probably get players anywhere they want to go with pitching. While the park does suppress right-handed power, it plays more neutrally to right-handed offense and run scoring overall. None the less, Jose Osuna (113 wRC+, .241 ISO) is an interesting bat in the cleanup spot this afternoon.

White Sox have the lowest implied run line (3.43) on the afternoon slate against Jameson Taillon

The Chicago White Sox (3.43) have the lowest implied run line on the afternoon slate on either site. Jameson Taillon is the rare pitcher who costs less on DraftKings ($400) against a lineup with just a .316 xwOBA and 24.9 K% vs RHP since 2017 via PlateIQ. A league average arm by peripherals, strong contact management (3.4% Barrels/BBE) allows him a .290 xwOBA. There is certainly some value in a moderate cost (especially on DK) in a favorable spot. The concern would be that Taillon is dealing with a finger issue and has completed six innings in just one of his last five starts with a high of five strikeouts over that span.

The Game For Bats

With so much pitching tonight, the bats are concentrated in a few spots, starting with the Cubs and Braves. The two first basemen in this game are both prime plays, and I love them both. But if picking out a one off, Anthony Rizzo is much more likely to get a pitch to hit than Freddie Freeman. The Cubs Tyler Chatwood walks so many batters, that it’s tough to guess which one will see a strike, while the Braves Brandon McCarthy lives around the strike zone, making it much more likely than Rizzo is the one who gets the pitch to crush.