DFS Alerts
An Elite First Base Option That Might Get Overlooked
He is generally flying under the radar, but Belt’s numbers this year against right-handed pitching are absolutely phenomenal and include a .295 ISO and .409 wOBA. He’s locked in as a fantastic play today, and I don’t mind using him in either cash games or tournaments against a pitcher in Chad Kuhl who traditionally struggles against left-handed hitters. The combination of matchup on each side enhances Belt’s upside, and my bold call is that he swats a pair of home runs tonight. I know he isn’t the sexiest hitter to roster, but the numbers say he’s a very strong option here.
Riding the Ups and Downs of a Young Arm
Soroka will be making his third major league start this evening, and he draws the best matchup one could imagine against the feeble Marlins. Miami ranks dead last in the league with a .110 team ISO and a .282 team wOBA so far this season, so this is basically like facing a Triple-A team for Soroka. That’s good news, as Soroka is a top prospect who dominated at the minor league level. The fact that he struggled in his last start will have people nervous to roster him, but the price is now discounted a bit, and the pitching slate is thin tonight. This is the spot to buy low.
Top Pitching Option of the Night
Both Morton and Noah Syndergaard are clearly ahead of the pack today on the mound, and I’ll opt for Morton as the core play simply because it looks like there might be weather issues with Syndergaard. Morton has been rock solid in 2018, posting an ERA just above 2.00 so far with a strikeout rate nearing 30%. His SIERA and xFIP do indicate some regression might be on the horizon, but I like tonight’s matchup against a free-swinging Rangers squad. Morton matches up well against them and isn’t as expensive as I would have expected for DFS purposes. He’s a solid choice in any DFS format here.
Start of Friday's SEA-DET game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Tigers have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game weren’t realistic options for any daily fantasy formats, the late start won’t do much to add to their appeal, but the delay is obviously a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams opt to play through the precipitation. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the delay could be lengthy and there’s still a decent possibility that the game is postponed.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter
Dodgers are an affordable stack against Matt Harvey in his Reds debut
Matt Harvey makes his debut for the Reds in Cincinnati. As a result, the Dodgers (5.03) have the only implied run line above 4.5 runs among the four west coast games. While Harvey has been competent against RHBs since last season (.330 xwOBA, 51.9 GB%), LHBs have mauled him (.426 wOBA, .423 xwOBA, 32.3 GB%). This may be the reason Chase Utley (116 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) finds himself atop the lineup tonight as a great value play for $3K or less on either site. Four of the first five in the order are left-handed tonight, along with the rejuvenated Matt Kemp (104 wRC+, .190). In fact, Utley has the lowest ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year in tonight’s lineup with only Max Muncy (69) is below Kemp’s 104 wRC+. Additionally, only Cody Bellinger (133 wRC+, .275 ISO) is above $4K on either site. The Dodgers are a strong and affordable stack against one of the worst pitchers on the board this season.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp, Matt Harvey, Max Muncy Significant rain risk in at least one spot tonight
Kevin’s updated forecast is up and it fills the color palette as he gets to every single one, including the dreaded RED. Players can read the full forecast on the Weather page and premium subscribers will want to tune into Crunch Time at 6:30 ET to get the latest on an active weather slate.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Jesus Aguilar (117 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the value play at Coors vs reverse platoon RHP
Chad Bettis has a 2.08 ERA this season, but all three estimators (SIERA, xFIP and FIP are more than two runs above that due to a .224 BABIP and 89.7 LOB%. Vegas is not fooled. The Brewers have a 5.52 implied run line that’s third best on the board, but an additional consideration is that his ground ball rate is down to 43.7% from a career rate just below 50% before the season started. This is a concern. He’s kept his reverse split. Right-handed batters have hit the ball on the ground just 40% of the time with a 37.5 Hard%. Players are going to liberally play the top four in the order and those are all fine plays, even the lefties in this park. It’s not like he’s dominated them (.320 xwOBA since last season). Jesus Aguilar is the value play here. He costs less than $4K on either site and leads all right-handed batters with in wRC+ (117) and ISO (.227) against same handed pitchers over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Chad Bettis Cole Hamels has allowed just two of his nine HRs this year in his last four starts, but strikeouts are down too
One never knows what sort of performance to expect with Cole Hamels. Home runs are down, but so are strikeouts over his last four starts, but Vegas still expects a shellacking with a 5.36 run line currently installed and rising over the course of the afternoon. Right-handed batters, of which there are seven, have a .326 wOBA (.350 xwOBA) and 40.6 Hard% against him since last year, while the big three + Alex Bregman (153 wRC+, .247 ISO) have all pummeled southpaws over the last calendar year. Jose Altuve is the low man by both wRC+ (146) and ISO (.153) of the four. The good news for Hamels is that beyond that, none of the other three righties exceed a 104 wRC+ or .177 ISO against lefties over the same time span.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Cole Hamels Rockies have a 5.98 implied run line, but a good chance of seeing Josh Hader (60.5 K%) for a couple of innings
The Rockies again own the highest implied run line on the board at 5.98 and it may be quite frustrating at this point because they may have the worst park neutral offense in the league (69 wRC+ at home, 66 wRC+ vs RHP). Still, players will normally want some exposure because they don’t want to be left out when the top team goes off and that very well could be tonight. Additionally, Brandon Woodruff has just one start this year (3.2 innings, 95 pitches). His other five outings have maxed out at two innings and 34 pitches. His last three outings (majors or minors) have been against a combined 21 hitters. The Rockies will likely see a lot of the Milwaukee bullpen and that’s not necessarily good news because Josh Hader (60.5 K%) generally throws multiple innings and hasn’t pitched since Tuesday. If this game is close, this is who Charlie Blackmon will face at least once late in the game. This limits the upside of he and Carlos Gonzalez as two of the few hitters in this lineup with above average production against RHP over the last calendar year because Hader is left-handed, though he’s only actually generated three ground balls this year. Nobody is going to tell players not to play Charlie Blackmon (145 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Nolan Arenado (110 wRC+, .245 ISO) at Coors, but there are enough reasons to consider limiting exposure, especially with Arenado priced higher than Blackmon with a right-hander starting the game tonight
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado Kendall Graveman brings his .393 xwOBA back to the majors to face the Yankees
Kendall Graveman got good and bad news this morning. He’s coming back to the majors, but he’s also facing the Yankees. Their 5.63 implied run line is only behind the Rockies at Coors tonight, which essentially makes them first considering the lack of production from that lineup this year. Graveman has a 53.1 GB% and 7.1 SwStr%, which is essentially what his career has been. His .393 xwOBA is tied for third worst on the board. Batters from either side exceed a .340 xwOBA against him since last year with right-handed batters more potent (.376 xwOBA), despite a ground ball rate over 13 points higher. The good news for Graveman is that Gary Sanchez is out of the lineup tonight. This perhaps also makes Yankee stacks more affordable. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Giancarlo Stanton (137 wRC+, .307 ISO), Neil Walker (127 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (152 wRC+, .200 ISO) all have a 175 or better wRC+ over the last week. Judge, Stanton, Brett Gardner (111 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (99 wRC+, .177 ISO) all have a 50+ Hard% over the last week as well. Didi Gregorius (132 wRC+, .264 ISO) is one of few struggling bats in this lineup right now (-94 wRC+ last seven days).
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Neil Walker, Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Kendall Graveman Right-handed batters have 16 of 20 HRs surrendered by Aaron Sanchez since 2017
The Red Sox have a 4.88 implied line that’s last among the eight teams with an implied run line of 4.8 runs or more. Aaron Sanchez struck out a season high eight the last time he faced them, but has otherwise exceeded four in just one other start. He does generate ground balls 55.3% of the time on contact this year and 51% against batters from either side of the plate since last year, but it’s not necessarily weak contact. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .360 since last season, while his overall xwOBA is .361 this year. Right-handed batters actually have 16 of the 20 HRs he’s allowed since last season, Mookie Betts (109 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) being one of those in that last meeting. His price tag is up to $5.9K on DK (more than the pitcher) and will be incredibly hard to build a strong lineup, especially if coveting a high end pitcher. J.D. Martinez (154 wRC+, .344 ISO) provides that production for $900 less on DK. Mitch Moreland (111 wRC+, .241 ISO) is the other bat in the lineup to combine above average production with a .200+ ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Sanchez’s walk rate in combination with his high ground ball rate might make this lineup more productive as a stack than individual bats if players can afford to do so.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Aaron Sanchez, Mitch Moreland Right-handed batters have a .357 wOBA and 37.3 Hard% against Steven Matz since last year
Steven Matz is easy to run on and hangs too many pitches, making a number of Philadelphia bats attractive in a power friendly park. Right-handed batters have a .357 wOBA, 37.3 Hard% and 43.9 GB% against Matz since 2017. First and most obviously, Rhys Hoskins (159 wRC+, .310 ISO career vs LHP) stands out. Aaron Altherr (100 wRC+, .229 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) bats second at a low price and may be the top value here. Cesar Hernandez (126 wRC+, .136 ISO) is the speed threat, but $4K on either site. Carlos Santana (113 wRC+, .193 ISO) has a 233 wRC+ (44.4 Hard%) over the last week. One thing to note is that Matz’s last outing came against another predominantly right-handed offense (the Rockies). It may have been his best start of the season (6 IP – 3 H – 1 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 5 K) and featured his slider (8%) for the first time this season. It’s pitch he’s been hesitant to throw the last couple of years for injury concerns. Perhaps his spot in the rotation became more of a concern recently.
Other tagged players: Steven Matz, Aaron Altherr, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana Tampa Bay (18.2 wFB) provides inexpensive upside against a pitcher who throws a lot of fastballs (Gausman 58%)
Kevin Gausman has generally been a guy who hasn’t lived up to the potential with an ERA above his estimators throughout his career. This year, it’s well below his estimators due to a .244 BABIP and 87.9 LOB%. The HR/FB is still at 17% with just a 20% strikeout rate. While his fastball usage has dropped below 60% for the first time this year, he still throws a lot of them 58% and the Rays have made substantial improvements against the pitch through roster construction this year. It’s right there on Fangraphs. Filter for team stats through Pitch Value and the Rays are fourth (18.2 wFB). The smart thing to do would be for Gausman to throw more sliders (17.5% this year) because they’re terrible against those (-14.9 wSL), but he has to throw some fastballs, which could provide some inexpensive offensive production tonight. While Gausman has historically been a pronounced reverse split pitcher, that hasn’t really been the case since the start of last year. There’s very little separation in a wOBA/xwOBA right around .340 against batters from either side of the plate. PlateIQ tells us that Wilson Ramos (95 wRC, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been the best fastball hitter since 2016, though C.J. Cron (100 wRC+, .192 ISO) has been a quality bat against the pitch as well (.348 wOBA). Denard Span (115 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Carlos Gomez (112 wRC+, .218 ISO) have been the top two bats against RHP over the last calendar year. Matt Duffy has a 133 wRC+, but just a .303 xwOBA in a smaller sample. Span is the only one in the lineup above $3.8K on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Gausman, Matt Duffy The Royals have the worst bullpen in the majors (5.4 K-BB%, 5.14 FIP, -0.8 fWAR, 37.6 Hard%)
Bullpens are an often overlooked aspect of daily fantasy, potentially because it’s difficult to figure out who’s going to pitch on any given night. There are a few quick steps players can take towards finding some advantages in this area though. First, a look at average innings per start over the last two calendar years puts the three obvious guys (Scherzer, Verlander, and Sale) along with Hamels and Bauer at six innings or better on average, while some of those teams also have some strong bullpens behind them for the most part (though Cleveland is not performing that way so far). These are bullpens we’re less likely to see the middle or poor end of tonight. A quick composite look on Fangraphs tells us that the Royals have the worst bullpen fWAR (-0.8) with a league worst 5.14 FIP. They are followed by the Twins (4.84), Indians (4.67, who we’ll ignore due to Bauer’s average workload) and A’s (4.5). The Royals have a bullpen 5.4 K-BB% that’s one of only two marks in single digits. They have the fifth highest hard hit rate (37.6%). The Rangers (40.6%) have been the hardest hit and are probably another good bullpen to attack considering Hamels’ lack of effectiveness over the last year or so. Strangely, the Yankees have a 38.7% hard hit rate despite a 25.4 K-BB% (no other team is above 20%). We don’t want to attack the Yankees obviously. The Royals and Rangers are bullpens players want to attack tonight with the Astros. The Braves are another bullpen to look at (9.9, 4.53 xFIP). Brandon McCarthy has not been going deep into games.
Really, Noto? In Cash Games?
I’ve seen some buzz around Sonny Gray as a viable option tonight, but I’m personally looking to load up on the A’s. Gray has been in awful form this season and the A’s are equipped to take away his biggest weapon — his ground ball. The A’s are a team that is build to get the ball in the air, which is always a positive in Yankee Stadium. Matt Olson is far too cheap across the industry, which brings him into play for both cash games and tournaments. He mashes right-handed pitching and should enjoy the short porch in right field.
