DFS Alerts

Cheapy Going Up Against a Fraud

First of all let me say that Jarlin Garcia is the biggest fraud we’ve seen since Andrew Cashner (who I just assume sold his soul to the devil to get guys out). People are going to look at his 2 runs given up and assume that the 7 runs given up in his last start were just a flute. WRONG. Jarlin owns a 4.94 xFIP, and does not have a above average anything. He gives up hard hits. walks, and fly balls at an above average rate to righties and only strikes them out at a 15.9% rate. In comes Suzuki, priced at just 3.5k on DK at a scarce position of catcher. Suzuki crushes lefties at a crazy rate and owns a .342 ISO and .443 wOBA (for reference that’s higher than Blackmon vs. a righty). Fade him if you want, but if you do I will happily take your money today for doing so and blow it on every eating challenge I can find in the area.

Stack 1 or 1A again

We finally got an old school Coors game last night.. Whew :) ! Once again these two teams are stack 1 and 1A for me with my giving a small edge to the Rockies. It is important if stacking these teams that you go contrarian elsewhere as the Brewcrew and Rockies will surely be the most popular stacks on the slate. Still I am prioritizing the Rockies stack in GPP’s as I think they will get to Anderson who has really struggled this season allowing 10 home runs in just over 45 innings. Everyone in the Rockies lineup is in play but I will be targeting the power righties the most against the revers splits Anderson. Arenado is the top overall play on the board.

A lot more K upside than you might think

There is a perception that these Giants don’t strike out.. Outside of their division this simply isn’t true any more. Over their last 10 games the Giants are 4th in the league in strikeouts at almost 10 per game. They have k’d double digit times in 5 straight (between 11 and 17 times per game) and have been striking out all year against non NL West opponents. Kuhl is certainly not an elite high strikeout pitcher but his 21% k rate is respectable enough at his price in this matchup. I am not in love with the play but I certainly will be taking chances on the young Pirates righty in GPP’s, betting against this cold Giants offense as much as anything else.

Cheap Bat in a Plus Matchup

So, in case you still think that Petco is still a terrible park for batting you should probably know that they moved in the right field fence and it is now just league average for right handed power. That being said, Jose Martinez is priced too low considering his skill set in this matchup. He draws a matchup against Ross who only strikes out righties at a 21% clip and Martinez only K’s at a 17.2% clip vs RHP. Ross may be a guy that gets a lot of ground balls, but he does walk guys from both sides of the plate at a 12% rate and Martinez has 2 guys that walk at a very high rate vs. RHP. We know guys will probably be on base ahead of him and Ross has a 35.3% hard hit rate. there’s a good likelyhood of a bomb here from Martinez and if not, Martinez should be putting the ball in play often so the chances to drive in some runs should be there. If you need some salary relief I love Martinez in both a stack and as a one off.

Love This Guy...Again

Look, if you’ve been reading my weekend write-ups then you already know I have a love for Justin Bour that would still be there even if he robbed my house (or even worse robbed me of a live final). First of all, let me get out of the way that Bour crushes RHP with a .261 ISO and .471 CXwOBA since the beggining of 2017. This is way too good for a guy priced 3.3k on DK regardless of the matchup, but today he draws a good matchup. Soroka is a above average prospect, but his pitching arsenal is one that lines up perfectly for Bour. Bour has problems with guys that throw some real heat or own a good curve (Soroka does neither). Fade Bour if you wish at this price, but I’m calling him to go Yard in this game.

Love This Guy's Talent

I’ll admit it, I may have a bit of a Broner for Tropeano. We don’t have a large sample size for him only pitching 150 innings in the majors his entire career, but he has shown good K stuff in his career vs. righties (25.5%) and limits walks from the left side of the plate (7.1%). Overall this kid has great stuff and the 46% hard hit rate is not something I expect to continue. Tropeano owns one of the highest swinging strike rates on the slate (11.5%) so you know there is huge upside at his low price of 7.2k and the Twins lineup playing without Sano in a pitchers park is not one that’s real imposing. If you’re not reaching all the way down to Stripling for your SP2 then you should be locking in Tropeano.

Super Cheap Pitching Option

I’m not happy about this, but Stripling may be the best option on the board for some salary savings. He is priced at 4.4K on DK and has slightly above league average stuff. Stripling owns a 24.4% K% since the beginning of last year and limited hard contact and creates soft contact vs. lefties (23.1% and 26.5% respectively) at a very high rate and this lineup should be full of Lefties.

The real worry here is that there is a decent chance that he only pitches 4 innings. In his last 2 starts, he failed to pitch more than 70 pitches, but I think that this start may end up with more. The last 2 starts were both just a few days after a appearance out of the bullpen. Today, Stripling goes on full rest. If you want to go elsewhere for some savings I understand, but if you want Morton and some Coors bats in your lineup, this may be your only viable option.

Power Upside

Bellinger makes for a stronger option on FanDuel than DraftKings (less expensive than Aguilar on FD and just too expensive on DK where he’s $4,600) but I want to do my best to highlight some non-Coors options on a slate where it looks like optimal lineup construction for cash games will literally be fitting in as many Coors hitters as you possibly can. Matt Harvey worked his way through the watered down Dodgers lineup on Friday night but Dodger lefties get another favorable matchup against Homer Bailey on Saturday. Albeit a relatively small sample, Bellinger’s splits against right handed pitching are mouth watering (139 wRC+, .297 ISO). Bellinger gives you a ton of power upside against a pitcher that has struggled a ton recently with the long ball (already 11 HRs over 43.1 IP this year). Bellinger is close to a cash game lock for me on FD and is a very strong tournament play on DK – he can be considered in cash if Aguilar isn’t in the lineup for the Brewers.

Non-Coors Option

With any luck we’ll get Tyler Flowers hitting fifth or sixth for the Braves against Marlins southpaw Jarlin Garcia on Saturday night. I highlighted Garcia’s expected regression before his last outing against the Cubs and the fact remains that he’s much less of a pitcher than his 2.68 ERA would indicate (4.86 SIERA). Flowers isn’t an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination (94 wRC+ vs LHP) but he’s a cheap way to save at the catcher position if you’re looking to roster someone not playing in Coors.

Cost Effective Coors

We’re still working on a limited sample here to start the season but Jesus Aguilar currently owns the 13th highest xWOBA (.440) of all players with at least 50 ABs. Aguilar’s high BABIP (.407) can largely be attributed to limiting soft contact (10.7%) and while it’s safe to expect his offensive performance will likely regress a bit as the season progresses, it’s important to highlight just how good he has been this year. Aguilar is in a prime spot offensively on Saturday night as he holds the platoon advantage over Kyle Freeland in Coors. Jesus is the most cost effective way to get exposure to the top of the Brewers lineup on DraftKings and he’s a strong play on FanDuel as well despite a less friendly price tag.

Pitcher Friendly

(Check weather!!) 10 out of 10 times that two starting pitchers project similarly (1 AL, 1 NL) I’ll side with the NL pitcher. Morton versus Syndergaard is the big decision surrounding cash games for Saturday’s main slate and Syndergaard is the guy that I want. This is a good matchup for Thor as the Phillies lead the league in strikeout rate versus RHP early on this season (26.8%) and are slightly below average offensively against righties (96 wRC+ – 17th in MLB). Syndergaard has shown good strikeout stuff (27.6 K%) and gets the benefit of pitcher friendly ump Ben May behind the dish Saturday night.

Salary Flexibility

Ross Stripling in cash seems a little weird to say but you have to consider him as an SP2 on this slate. SP2 is essentially between Wacha and Stripling and comes down to your preferred approach to roster construction – i.e. how many Coors bats do you want in your lineups. Stripling hasn’t topped 70 pitches yet this year but should be stretched out enough to approach 90 pitches if things are going well. The Dodgers are nearing -200 favorites against a Reds offense that has been poor this year against right handed pitching (86 wRC+). You’re not hoping to hit a home run here with Stripling, he’s a pretty average pitcher overall in a slightly favorable matchup, but the thought is he gives you enough salary flexibility to fit in the hitters that you want.

Target Blue Jays Righties Against David Price

David Price will take the hill tonight in his first start after his “not-Fortnite-related” carpal tunnel symptoms. Though some might stay away simply because of the name-value that Price brings, he has been brutal this season against RH hitters, allowing a .349 BA, .434 SLG, and .341 WOBA thus far. We saw the Blue Jays roll out 9 righties yesterday, and today they may employ a similar approach. The name that stands out most is Josh Donaldson, who has a career WOBA of .408 against LH pitching.

Enormous Potential in a Favorable Matchup

The pitching numbers for Kyle Freeland this year look solid on the surface, but there are problems as we start to peel back the onion. First of all, five of his seven starts have come on the road so far, and one of the two home starts came against the Padres. He’s had about as good of a schedule as you can get for a Rockies pitcher, but that changes tonight against a hot Brewers team that is coming off a big come from behind win on Friday. Freeland is a traditional splits LHP who does struggle against righties, so the Milwaukee lineup sets up well here. Cain checks in as my favorite, as he is the most locked in at the plate of the bunch right now with three straight multi-hit games — but you could certainly opt for Ryan Braun or a value piece like Hernan Perez if you like.

Cheap Exposure to Coors Field

We finally saw a true “Coors Field game” last night, with the Brewers and Rockies playing an 11-10 extra inning thriller that provided all sorts of fantasy goodness. If you are looking for affordable exposure to the big hitters in this game, look no further than Carlos Gonzalez, who is priced at a shockingly affordable level on every site this evening. After a day off on Thursday, he returned to the cleanup spot on Friday and swatted a home run in the game. You can certainly target the more expensive hitters in this game, but the salary relief that Gonzalez provides makes him one of the best point per dollar plays on the board.