DFS Alerts
Gerrit Cole looks to continue being ridiculous (41.9 K%, 16.4 SwStr%) in Oakland this afternoon
Gerrit Cole threw a one-hitter with 16 strikeouts in his last start and has struck out 28 of his last 55 batters faced. He’s only even allowed three runs once and has missed seven innings just by a single out once this year with 11 or more strikeouts in all but two starts. The only issue is how to afford him for $13.4K on a board with enormous offensive expectations. Daniel Mengden may be part of that solution for $4.9K. While the Astros are a very difficult assignment, their 4.62 implied run line is not near the top of the afternoon board. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts, has a reasonable 18 K% (9.1 SwStr%) and 4.07 SIERA this season. He’s not ideal, but he is incredibly cheap and potentially necessary. An added bonus, he won’t have to face Carlos Correa this afternoon. Of course, there remains upside on the opposite end of this matchup as well. Each of the first six batters in the Houston offense have a wRC+ above 120 and ISO above .185 vs RHP over the last calendar year, though only George Springer (.220) gets above a .195 ISO in an incredibly balanced lineup in that aspect.
Other tagged players: Daniel Mengden, George Springer
Tyler Anderson has a 14.3 SwStr%, but just a 28.2 GB%
As one would expect, both teams at Coors this afternoon have implied run lines near the top of the board (Angels 5.61, Rockies 6.39). Tyler Anderson has the third highest swinging strike rate of any pitcher on Wednesday (14.3%) and has a .297 xwOBA with a 4.6% Barrels/BBE, but just a 28.2 GB% this year. The confirmed LA lineup has a .355 wOBA and .208 ISO vs LHP since last season according to PlateIQ (now with conditional formatting for premium subscribers). Each of the first seven batters in the lineup except Albert Pujols is above a 110 wRC+ against southpaws over the last calendar year. Each of the first six (minus Pujols again) is above a .200 ISO too. Jaime Barria has allowed just five runs in 13 innings to begin his career, but with both six walks and strikeouts. Right-handed batters (.404 xwOBA) have been better than lefties (.266 xwOBA) in this small sample. Charlie Blackmon (145 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the Coors must against RHP. Nolan Arenado (111 wRC+, .243 ISO), Carlos Gonzalez (114 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Chris Iannetta (117 wRC+, .262 ISO) have been the other above average bats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Jaime Barria, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Iannetta Cubs have an afternoon high 6.66 implied run line with the wind blowing out at Wrigley
Jose Quintana has not allowed an earned run in two starts, but did have three unearned in his last starts with both four walks and strikeouts. His 19.9 K% has dropped done to the support level of his 8.2 SwStr% this season, while his ability to manage contact has left him (90.7 mph aEV), driving his ERA to 4.99 and his xwOBA to .365. While Brian Anderson and Starlin Castro both have a wRC+ above 125 against southpaws over the last calendar year, neither has an ISO above .150. Unfortunately, Quintana costs $9.7K on DraftKings this afternoon in a great spot, but one where expectations may be a bit lofty. On the other side, the Cubs have board high 6.66 implied run line with the wind blowing out to left. Wei-Yin Chen has had limited opportunities the last couple of seasons due to injuries. He has one more walk than strikeouts in two starts this year. Every batter in the Chicago lineup with more than 30 PAs against southpaws over the last calendar year is above a 100 wRC+ above them. Kris Bryant (149 wRC+, .214 ISO), Javier Baez (147 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Willson Contreras (131 wRC+, .229 ISO) have dealt the most punishment.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Wei-Yin Chen, Jose Quintana, Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro Reynaldo Lopez and Trevor Williams both have low BABIPs and estimators well above their ERAs
The Pirates and White Sox both have implied run lines above four and a half, though neither is near the top of the board for the afternoon slate on either site. Reynaldo Lopez has gone at least six innings in five of his six starts, but since striking out 10 A’s, he’s totaled just four over his last three starts (none in his last) with a swinging strike rate below 5% in two of them. The good news is that he’s walked a total of two in his last two starts (11 BB% for the season). Quite honestly, who knows what he’ll do? His estimators remain several runs above his ERA due to a .224 BABIP. His .375 xwOBA is highest on the afternoon slate (either site). Left-handed batters have a .343 wOBA, .379 xwOBA (34.4 Hard%) well above what same-handed batters have done against him since last season. Corey Dickerson (120 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been on fire (196 wRC+, 47.8 Hard% last seven days). While nobody else in the lineup is above a .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, each of the first five in the lineup are above a 125 wRC+ overall for the last seven days. On the other side, Trevor Williams has been an effective contact manager, allowing three runs in a start for the first time this season last time out, failing to complete six innings for just the second time in seven starts. His 16.1 K% is not impressive and his estimators are also nearly double his actual ERA due to a .209 BABIP, though he does have a board low 84.9 mph aEV. He has some odd splits with LHBs having just a 23 Hard% against him since last season, while RHBs have an xwOBA 53 points higher than actual and a 34.4 Hard%. Jose Abreu (130 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) would seem the obvious play here, if any. Leury Garcia (101 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Yolmer Sanchez (116 wRC+, .172 ISO) are low cost top of the lineup options.
Other tagged players: Reynaldo Lopez, Trevor Williams, Jose Abreu, Leury Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez Robinson Chirinos (sore wrist) scratched Wednesday; Carlos Perez replaces
Chirinos has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Detroit Tigers due to left wrist soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Carlos Peres, who will handle the catching duties and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which will bump Renato Nunez and Ryan Rua each up one spot to seventh and eighth, respectively. There haven’t been any drastic changes to this Rangers lineup, especially at the top, but still be sure to check out the updated batting order on the Starting Lineups page as Texas faces off against left-hander Francisco Liriano this afternoon.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter
Francisco Liriano has been effective due to a .211 BABIP, but a .373 xwOBA is more in line with afternoon projections
The Texas Rangers have the top implied run line on the early FanDuel slate (5.15), though they are merely fourth on DraftKings larger six gamer. Francisco Liriano hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts, three of which have gone longer than six innings, but with estimators all well above four, while his ERA sits at 2.97 due to a .211 BABIP (15.3 LD%). He retains a double digit walk rate to go along with just an 18.6 K%. A .373 xwOBA (10.2% Barrels/BBE) might be a more realistic projection for how things are expected to go this afternoon. The Rangers don’t usually do a lot of platooning, but are nearly forced to start seven right-handed batters considering that they have both a wOBA and xwOBA over 100 points higher against Liriano since last season. Five of them have more than 30 PAs against southpaws over the last calendar year and all five are above a 120 wRC+. and .190 ISO, the best of whom have been Jurickson Profar (220 wRC+, .379 ISO, .398 xwOBA), Adrian Beltre (168 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (145 wRC+, .241 ISO). Unfortunately, three of this five right-handed batters comprise the bottom half of the batting order. The Tigers have a bottom three 4.35 implied run line on either site against Bartolo Colon (17.4 K%), whose FIP (4.88) and DRA (5.51) are his only estimators above four. He has a .196 BABIP along with a 22.2 HR/FB, allowing four bombs to the Red Sox in his most recent start. Detroit doesn’t have a name any casual fan would recognize in the lineup today and a few not even well seasoned MLB DFS players might know. Only Jeimer Candelaro (128 wRC+, .192 ISO) is near average against RHP over the last calendar year. He and Niko Goodrum (52 wRC+, .125) are the only left-handed bats in the lineup. Bartolo Colon has allowed RHBs a .350 xwOBA since last season too though. Grayson Greiner or Pete Kozma anyone?
Other tagged players: Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos, Francisco Liriano, Bartolo Colon, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, Grayson Greiner, Pete Kozma The Breakout Continues
After his huge 2017 season, there has been no drop off for Moustakas, and if anything, he’s gotten better this year. Since the start of 2017, he has a .278 ISO against right-handed pitching with just 14.8% strikeouts. He has a home run every 12.8 at bats vs RHP, and that is with half his games being played in a park that hurts power. Regardless of whether we see the 2017 or the 2018 version of Andrew Cashner, the Moose is on the loose in this matchup.
Carlos Carrasco has struggled last two starts, but is the top pitching option on the early FanDuel slate
A 4.7 implied run line for the Tribe would have been near the top of a full board on Tuesday, but isn’t even in the top half of the Wednesday afternoon slate on either board. Junior Guerra got blown up for five runs in five innings last time out and most people who know ERA estimators could have predicted something like this coming. All of them still remain two runs higher than his current 2.33 ERA, while they’d likely be even higher than that if his 8.0 SwStr% continues to be unsupported by a 22.3 K%. Edwin Encarnacion gets the day off in an NL park, but that moves Yonder Alonso (126 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) up to fifth in the lineup. He’s the salary relief in this lineup. Jose Ramirez (148 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .192 ISO) have been the offensive stars against RHP. Francisco Lindor (105 wRC+, .222 ISO) has been the only other competent batter. All bat from the left-side, though Guerra has a bit of a reverse split going on with batters 20 points higher by wOBA and xwOBA from the right side with a 37.2 Hard% since last season. However, LHBs still have a .336 xwOBA with just one-third of contact on the ground. Carlos Carrasco is the top pitching option on the four game FanDuel Slate ($9.5K) and a pivot from a much more expensive Gerrit Cole on DraftKings, even at $11.5K. The Brewers have a FanDuel slate low 3.8 implied run line (second lowest on six game DK slate). After three straight starts of seven innings or more, he’s failed to even complete six in either of his last two (11 runs, 3 HRs), but does have exactly seven strikeouts in three of his last four. His 13.4 SwStr% is a top five mark for the entire day and should lead to better than his current 22.4 K%. The Brewers have severely under-performed and have an 89 wRC+ both at home (26.8 K%) and vs RHP (23.8 K%). They continue to miss a couple of key bats in the middle of their lineup (Thames and Braun), but do have three batters who have hit RHP very well over the last calendar year. Christian Yelich (131 wRC+, .176 ISO) and Domingo Santana (130 wRC+, .197 ISO) are both above a 190 wRC+ over the last seven days. Travis Shaw (137 wRC+, .257 ISO) is around the $3.5K mark on either site. Carrasco has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last season, while LHBs are slightly above.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw, Junior Guerra, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor The Bat To Pay For Tonight
There are not a lot of expensive bats to jam in tonight, so we should be able to afford at least one high end play without much trouble. I lean towards Manny Machado at home against Eric Skoglund. In his brief time in the majors, Skoglund has allowed 39% fly balls and 44% hard hits to right-handed batters with below average strikeouts. He may be able to get away with the fly balls at home, but Camden Yards won’t do him any favors. Machado hits the ball hard and in the air against lefties, posting a .277 ISO since the start of 2017 against lefties.
High End Bat At Low End Salary
I continue to be befuddled by the consistently low salary on Justin Smoak. He hasn’t been as lights out as he was last year, but this is still a very good middle of the order hitter with good plate skills and power. Wade LeBlanc is a below average lefty and Smoak has strong contact skills with just 13.6% K since last season against LHP.
Two of the top three implied run lines on the FanDuel early slate are in Cincinnati this afternoon
The Mets and Reds early start is only available on FanDuel, where they have the second (Reds 5.07) and third (Mets 4.93) implied run lines on a four game afternoon slate. Needless to say, this is not the game players are looking towards for pitching, though Wheeler (19.1 K%, 9.8 SwStr%, 3.03 DRA) has occasionally shown some upside in favorable matchups, which the Reds (86 wRC+ vs RHP) may be. The park greatly inflates power, but is a near neutral overall run environment. He settled down after the damage was down in his last start against the Rockies (six runs in the first inning), but it was too little, too late. He’s struck out three or fewer in three or his five starts, with seven or more in the other two and costs just $5.8K if players have the risk tolerance necessary. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330 against him since last year, though he keeps RHBs on the ground 51.7% of the time with a 27.1 Hard% since last season. LHBs have a .363 wOBA, 38.4 Hard% and 42.6 GB%. Jesse Winker (144 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .228 ISO) are the top players here, the former for less than $3K. A four game slate may even give players reason to consider Billy Hamilton (76 wRC+) against a combination he should be able to run on should he find a way to reach base. On the other side, Sal Romano has not allowed more than two ERs for four straight starts, only completing six innings once though and with a total of 12 strikeouts. The upside is that he hasn’t walked more than two in any of those starts, nearly moving his season rate (10.1%) into single digits. There’s no upside in his 4.5 SwStr%. All of his ERA estimators are above five and a half and his 94.2 Z-Contact% is worst among all pitchers on any slate on Wednesday. While batters from either side exceed a .330 wOBA against him since last season, only LHBs (.331) remain that high by xwOBA with RHBs dropping to .309 with a 54.9 GB%. None the less, Devin Mesoraco (90 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a min-priced Catcher in the six hole on a four game slate, facing a pitcher he should know very well. Brandon Nimmo (146 wRC+, .197 ISO) is in the leadoff spot for $2.5K. Wilmer Flores (130 wRC+, .245 ISO) has been surprisingly good against RHP and costs the same. Jay Bruce (115 wRC+, .231 ISO) costs a bit more. Adrian Gonzalez (95 wRC+, .186 ISO) has hit well in this series (186 wRC+, 46.2 Hard% last seven days) and costs less than $3K. Michael Conforto (143 wRC+, .248 ISO) is now batting seventh due to a prolonged slump (18 wRC+ last seven days). Yoenis Cespedes is not in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, Adrian Gonzalez, Michael Conforto, Sal Romano, Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, Zack Wheeler Simply Too Cheap
There is no reason why Alex Wood should be this much cheaper than his opponent tonight on DK/FDRFT. Sure, I’d lean towards Corbin at the same price, but the long-term skills favor Wood, and it’s not a stretch at all to think that he could be the better pitcher tonight. There’s always the low innings risk, but his elite control and high ground balls (3.1% walks this season) can help lead to some short innings. Even with low velocity, he still has very similar strikeout numbers to most of the pitchers on this slate, coming in at 23.8% K this season after a 24.6% mark in 2017. There are only a couple dangerous righties Arizona can throw against him and at this salary, he’s a play in all formats.
A Good, Not Great Pitcher At A Fair Price
Gonzalez is similar to Corbin tonight in that I’m not in love with this matchup, but it’s one of the better ones on the slate, and we have a long track record of consistent performance from Gio. He has eight straight years of a strikeout rate over 22%, up to 25% this season and he always limits hard contact, making up for his average control. The Padres are not a pushover against lefties, but there’s still plenty of strikeout upside in this lineup. His salary is very reasonable on FanDuel, while it’s a little higher than it should on DK/FDRFT. However, I’m not finding the need to spend a lot on bats tonight, so it’s not hard to fit him in. I don’t love the points per dollar upside, but he’s such a significant savings from Corbin and with a matchup edge, that this is where I’d prefer to spend.
Attacking This Pitcher
I’ve played Baltimore way too much this season, and they continue to disappoint. With that said, I’m going right back to the well tonight against Skoglund. Skoglund has a .350 wOBA with a .222 ISO against right-handed hitters, and while he gets a lot of groundballs and strikeouts, the advanced numbers are bad. He has a 51.9% hard hit rate with a 34.6% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters. I wrote up Valencia yesterday, and I’m going back to the well tonight against Skoglund. Valencia continues to crush left-handed pitching and has a .512 CXwOBA against them this season. He also has a .259 ISO with a 42.9% hard hit rate against lefties, and he has hit 47.6% of balls with an exit velocity over 95mph.
Attacking This Pitcher
I’ve played Baltimore way too much this season, and they continue to disappoint. With that said, I’m going right back to the well tonight against Skoglund. Skoglund has a .350 wOBA with a .222 ISO against right-handed hitters, and while he gets a lot of groundballs and strikeouts, the advanced numbers are bad. He has a 51.9% hard hit rate with a 34.6% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters. Schoop returned from the DL last night and draws another left-handed pitching. Last season he had a .297 ISO with a .402 wOBA and a 40% hard hit rate against lefties. I love the Orioles tonight and I’m attacking Skoglund.