DFS Alerts
Not Elite, But Still Good
All the pitching is tightly bunched on FanDuel tonight, to the point that salary is just not much of an issue. Corbin has slowed down from his early season pace, but he still stands out on this slate with his season strikeout rate at 34.7% along with low .2% walks and over 50% ground balls. The matchup is just OK as the Dodgers don’t strike out a lot, but it’s still a friendlier matchup than what Porcello/Tanaka are stuck with. Don’t go in expecting the 10+K guy we saw early on, but we’re not paying for it here.
Attacking This Pitcher
I’ve played Baltimore way too much this season, and they continue to disappoint. With that said, I’m going right back to the well tonight against Skoglund. Skoglund has a .350 wOBA with a .222 ISO against right-handed hitters, and while he gets a lot of groundballs and strikeouts, the advanced numbers are bad. He has a 51.9% hard hit rate with a 34.6% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters. Mancini continues to crush left-handed pitching. He has a .257 ISO with a .402 wOBA against lefties this season. He should hit leadoff and I’d expect the Orioles to come out strong after getting blown up last night.
Can He Get Around The Lefties
If Nick Pivetta doesn’t get blown up by the lefties here, he should pitch a really good game. We’ve had two high upside spots in a row for the Phillies pitchers, and I’m hoping that we can make it three in a row. The Giants are striking out a lot this season. They’re projected starters have a 22% strikeout rate against righties, which is up about 5% from last season. Pivetta has a .243 wOBA with a .090 ISO against right-handed hitters this season, and he adds nice upside with his 31.5% strikeout rate. He’s done a great job at limiting the hard contact overall this season, but against righties he has a -6.5% hard to soft contact ratio. Again, I think this is worth the risk at this price point, and I think he’s a great pivot off Alex Wood in tournaments.
Great Spot On Paper
I’m not a huge fan of Julio Teheran, but I’ve always respected his ability to get right-handed hitters out. The Rays only project three lefties in the lineup tonight, and I’m not too worried about the lefties that are in the lineup anyway. The projected starting lineup has a .133 ISO with a .310 wOBA and a 20.6% strikeout rate against righties. Teheran has continued to struggle with lefties this season, but he’s pitching very well against righties. He has a 25.3% strikeout rate with a 6.7% well hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. He’s limited the hard contact to 23.4% and should be able to pitch well against these righties tonight. He’s also in one of the best pitcher’s ballparks in baseball.
It's In Your Hands, Dave Roberts
I like this home matchup for Alex Wood in what sets up as a nice pitchers’ duel between him and the rising Patrick Corbin. Wood has also looked much sharper in recent starts, and we know he has the skill set to generate some strikeouts and induce plenty of soft contact. A matchup against a free-swinging Diamondbacks squad also enhances his upside. However, we never know how long Dave “kld gloves” Roberts will let him pitch. The price point is cheap enough to where I will gladly take some GPP shots here in the hopes that Wood is sharp and can go deep into the game, especially on a slate that is devoid of many great pitching options.
A Good Spot for a Pitcher with Major Splits Issues
I rarely play or recommend Julio Teheran, but this is one of those rare cases. As we know with Teheran, his biggest issues come with left-handed power hitters, and the Rays offer basically no left-handed power. Teheran is still holding RHBs to a meager 28% hard contact rate this year, and there are encouraging signs. His swinging strike rate is up to a career best 12.3%, and the potential is there for a breakout start. The walks remain a problem, and that’s enough to keep me off Teheran in cash games, but I like the GPP upside at a mid-range price tag.
Ready for Some Regression
There’s nothing really awful about the 2018 numbers for Chris Stratton, but I am just not a huge believer in the skill set. He is walking hitters at a 10% clip this year and allowing hard contact over 40% of the time. It’s difficult to get by at this level with those kinds of numbers. This could be a sneaky breakout spot for the Phillies, and their offense is better than a lot of people give them credit for. Anyone in the top six in this lineup is a viable stacking piece for me. I don’t think you need to force one-offs for cash games, but I like the GPP spot here.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera A Good Park and a Good Matchup
The Orioles were out of last night’s game before it even started, but they should be able to rebound tonight against a mediocre LHP in Skoglund. In his brief major league career, he has struggled mightily against right-handed hitters, allowing them to post a 44% hard contact rate and .395 wOBA. His ground ball rate isn’t anything special, either, so there is power potential here. Manny Machado is an elite shortstop play, Adam Jones is still nicely priced on every site, and Trey Mancini is a great mid-range option to round out a Baltimore stack here.
Other tagged players: Adam Jones, Trey Mancini Bouncing Back After a No-Hitter
Yes, the Blue Jays got no-hit by James Paxton last night. However, this is a fine spot for them to bounce back against a pedestrian lefty in Wade LeBlanc. The Jays do have some guys that are capable of hitting well against lefties and for some power, especially now that Josh Donaldson is back in the mix. There is some risk involved here, but I like the Blue Jays as a GPP stack this evening.
Other tagged players: Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar Gerrit Cole checks-in nearly $2000 more than the next closest SP on Wednesday's early slates
Cole has been absolutely dominant to start the season for the Astros. Today he gets his highest price tag ever at $13,400 as well as a favorable vegas line at -177(open). Pitchers with similar price/vegas numbers have put up a 60% consistency rate with a +1.42 avg/actual points. Things working in Cole’s favor besides the fact he has been lights out? Oakland has a 24% K rate against righties this season, Cole is projected for a slate 2nd best of 7.2 K’s. He also gets the friendly confines of O.co Coliseum, a favorable pitchers park. The only negative I could find is that Oakland leads the league in HH% in 40.3% against righties, so if Cole is able to limit that, he should be in for another fine outing.
Devin Mesoraco scratched from Cincinnati Reds lineup Tuesday
Mesoraco has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the New York Mets due to a trade agreement that will send Mesoraco to New York and Matt Harvey to Cincinnati in the swap . He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tucker Barnhart, who will handle the catching duties and slot directly into Mesoraco’s vacated seventh spot in the order, which keeps the remainder of the Mets lineup intact as they face off against left-hander Jason Vargas on the road this evening.
As reported by: Mike Puma via Twitter
Anthony Rendon (170 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) matches up well with Clayton Richard (RHBs .380 wOBA since 2017)
None of the three west coast games feature an individual team run line above 4.35 tonight. Mostly, this is due to quality pitching and negative run environments, plus also…the Padres. The Astros are at the top offense against a quality pitcher in Sean Manaea. They blew up last night, but expensive bats are a reasonable fade considering the implied run line (4.35) is not in the top third of the board. The Nationals (4.12 implied run line) are in an interesting spot against a pitcher who has allowed RHBs a .380 wOBA (.360 xwOBA) with a 38.9 Hard% since the start of last season. The negative run environment and 55.5 GB% (against RHBs too) give him a bit of a margin, but the projected lineup for Washington has some impressive bats against LHP: Ryan Zimmerman (138 wRC+, .254 ISO last calendar year), Howie Kendrick (117 wRC+, .192 ISO), Anthony Rendon (170 wRC+, .307 ISO) and even Michael A. Taylor (120 wRC+, .243 ISO). Trea Turner (78 wRC+, .078 ISO) has been the exception and might have trouble running on Richard should he reach. None of the lineups for these three games have been confirmed yet.
Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick, Michael A. Taylor, Trea Turner, Clayton Richard
The Rangers are tied for the top run line on the board (5.3) against Mike Fiers
Texas is a great hitting environment, especially when it’s hot like tonight. It’s not Coors, but add Mike Fiers to the mix and the Rangers are essentially tied with the Rockies for the top run line on the board (5.33). Fiers has a 13.6 K% that’s second lowest on the board and has allowed at least three runs in six innings or fewer in each of his last four starts. The bullpen doesn’t get much better from there. Batters from either side have a wOBA and xwOBA above .340 against him since last season. Joey Gallo (120 wRC+, .329 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only bat above a .200 ISO against righties in this lineup, but the environment and opponent can help the potency of Adrian Beltre (124 wRC+, .195 ISO), Nomar Mazara (107 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Shin-soo Choo (113 wRC+, .198 ISO).
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo No weather issues in Kevin's Tuesday night forecast
There are no weather issues in Kevin’s Tuesday night forecast. The full report can be read on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can tune into Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET, where he’ll talk about hitting conditions and a number of other things MLB DFS related.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Nolan Arenado has a 209 wRC+ and .371 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year
Andrew Heaney has an impressive 12.0 SwStr% through four starts, but the two buzz words here are Coors and Lefty. The Rockies have a number of batters with healthy numbers against southpaws with the run environment boosting them to the top run line on the slate (5.38). In nine starts since last year, RHBs have a .399 xwOBA, 47.5 Hard% and 30.5 GB%. This is a recipe for disaster. Nolan Arenado (209 wRC+, .371 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year) is the top bat on the slate. DJ LeMahieu (155 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Trevor Story (137 wRC+, .299 ISO) are not far behind. Charlie Blackmon (147 wRC+, .219 ISO) more than holds his own against southpaws as well.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew Heaney