DFS Alerts
A Super Safe Play with Some Upside
You can call me a homer if you want, but I’m a fan of Mikolas. This guy gets the ball, gets his sign, and throws strikes. He works quickly, which keeps his defense engaged, and he allows them to make plays behind him. In seven starts this year, Mikolas has a grand total of TWO walks. He leads the league in strike rate, walk rate, and K/BB ratio. While he’s not a high strikeout guy, he gets his fair share, and that upside is elevated in a matchup against the free-swinging Padres. Throw in a game at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and there really couldn’t be a better spot with which to target Mikolas in DFS.
Everything Looks Real
I want to stress that I don’t see much gap at all in any of the top five pitchers tonight. Buehler, Mikolas, Happ, Greinke and Richards are all tightly bunched and I will likely land on fairly even exposure to all of them. But after Milkolas, the rookie Buehler gets the next look, as his combination of strikeouts and ground balls gives him upside and safety. The only issue here is innings, as there is virtually no chance of 100+ pitches, so the ceiling is somewhat muted, but he’s good enough to pay off this salary in six innings.
Attacking a Pitcher in Decline
Mike Leake is yet another pitcher in decline, and we have a lot of those pitching tonight. This is very likely going to be a high scoring Thursday night DFS slate. Leake has never been a big strikeout pitcher, but he would get by with a decent amount of soft contact and ground balls. The ground ball rate has gone in the tank, he’s allowing more hard contact than he ever has, and his numbers are suffering as a result. The Blue Jays are a sneaky GPP stack tonight, and outside of Donaldson they don’t cost you a whole lot. Teoscar Hernandez has been a pleasant surprise for this team, and you can surround him with very affordable pieces as well.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Russell Martin Hunting for Bombs in Baltimore
I honestly can’t believe that Chris Tillman is making another start for the Orioles. After being downright awful for the season’s first month, he saved his job with one decent start, but then he proceeded to get absolutely shelled by the Angels in his last outing. He gave up seven runs while only recording three outs, and the guy simply doesn’t have anything left in the tank. His numbers are across the board awful — and we are talking worst in the league awful. Kansas City had an outburst against Dylan Bundy the other day, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see another one tonight. All the power bats are in play here, as is a full GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez Just Too Cheap Again
If there’s a team outside of Kansas City and Colorado that could break the slate, the Blue Jays against Mike Leake are that team. Leake has lost all his skills this season with a drop in strikeouts and ground balls and an increase in walks and hard hits. Smoak continues to be underpriced in the middle of this lineup with a solid mix of plate discipline and power. His skills are not at the level of 2017, but he still has a 37.7% hard hit rate and .203 ISO against righties this season after his 2017 breakout of 40% hard hits and a .266 ISO.
The Top Spendy Team Stack
We welcome a Coors Field weekend back into our lives, and it’s about time that the Rockies pick up the pace offensively. They got shut out at home by a rookie on Thursday afternoon, but things should get rolling against Chacin and the Brewers tonight. I love all the Colorado lefties as the favorite parts of my stack, as Chacin has shown major splits over the past few seasons. He has allowed a .418 wOBA and has an ugly batted ball profile against lefties so far this year. Blackmon and Gonzalez are the top options here, and you can also consider whoever nabs the third outfield spot between Dahl and Parra. If Wolters is behind the plate, he is also a decent punt play, while Nolan Arenado is capable of crushing any pitcher at home.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez Take The Savings Here
With Jon Jay is in the leadoff spot, this is just a silly price against a pitcher as bad as Chris Tillman. Tillman has shown absolutely no ability to get left-handed batters out, and with strong contact skills, Jay’s on base upside is clear and he should have all kinds of opportunities to pile up runs tonight. He is best used in cash games or Royals stacks as a salary saver. He is a nice value on FanDuel, but an even more significant savings on DK/FDRFT.
Easily The Top Option In All Formats
This matchup couldn’t be any better for Blackmon. Even at his salary, I think he’s underpriced for being in Coors Field against Jhoulys Chacin. Since the start of 2017, Chacin has just 13.4% strikeouts and 12.5% walks with no ability to limit hard contact. Blackmon is either going to get walked and score runs, or get a pitch to hit and punish it. And likely, both.
Can't Argue With The Skills Or Matchup
There are five pitchers all closely bunched up top tonight. In tournaments, I’ll likely spread out my exposure. But the one I feel best about is Miles Mikolas. Despite having the lowest strikeout rate of the top group, his elite control and this matchup make up for it. He has a remarkable two walks in 40 innings this season, and when combined with 51% ground balls, it’s really difficult to put together a big innings against him. Add in a low power, high strikeout opponent in a good ballpark and it all lines up.
Caleb Smith Offers Salary Relief and GPP upside Thursday
It looks like a scary matchup vs Atlanta, and it is. Atlanta has been crushing lefties to start this season with a .186 ISO and a league leading .347 wOBA, they also have the lowest K rate vs lefties at 17%. So why Caleb Smith? Well first and foremost Vegas expects regression from the Braves, opening at only -120 and the line has dropped in the Marlins favor already. They also project Smith with the highest K prediction at 8.5, a full run higher than the next highest in Zack Greinke. Smith has hit expected value on at a 63% consistency this year but over the last 3 he has been red hot. With an expected point total of 11.5 per start over the last month, Caleb Smith has put up a 30.86 DK ppg average at a 100% consistency rate. He may go overlooked with the Braves playing well, but I’ll trust Vegas and the upside that Caleb Smith is capable of bringing on Thursday.
Too Cheap On FanDuel
Every once in a while, we have mispriced hitters, and that’s the case tonight. We have three left-handed outfielders for the Rockies that are priced at $3,000 on FanDuel. They’re going to have a lot of ownership, but they set up as great value plays in this spot. Since the start of 2017, Chacin has a .352 wOBA with a .180 ISO against left-handed hitters. He also has a low 12.4% strikeout rate and a high 18.6% hard to soft contact ratio. Carlos Gonzalez (.350 wOBA / .188 ISO), David Dahl (.532 wOBA / .308 ISO), and Gerardo Parra (.324 wOBA / .146 ISO) all have solid numbers against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017.
Too Cheap On FanDuel
Every once in a while, we have mispriced hitters, and that’s the case tonight. We have three left-handed outfielders for the Rockies that are priced at $3,000 on FanDuel. They’re going to have a lot of ownership, but they set up as great value plays in this spot. Since the start of 2017, Chacin has a .352 wOBA with a .180 ISO against left-handed hitters. He also has a low 12.4% strikeout rate and a high 18.6% hard to soft contact ratio. Carlos Gonzalez (.350 wOBA / .188 ISO), David Dahl (.532 wOBA / .308 ISO), and Gerardo Parra (.324 wOBA / .146 ISO) all have solid numbers against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017.
Too Cheap On FanDuel
Every once in a while, we have mispriced hitters, and that’s the case tonight. We have three left-handed outfielders for the Rockies that are priced at $3,000 on FanDuel. They’re going to have a lot of ownership, but they set up as great value plays in this spot. Since the start of 2017, Chacin has a .352 wOBA with a .180 ISO against left-handed hitters. He also has a low 12.4% strikeout rate and a high 18.6% hard to soft contact ratio. Carlos Gonzalez (.350 wOBA / .188 ISO), David Dahl (.532 wOBA / .308 ISO), and Gerardo Parra (.324 wOBA / .146 ISO) all have solid numbers against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017.
Big Discount for an Elite Arm
In terms of a raw projection, Wood shouldn’t be that far behind the likes of Gio Gonzalez and Patrick Corbin, yet he’s way cheaper. Wood is only $8,400 on FanDuel and $7,600 on DraftKings. He is the best point-per-dollar option on the board. In seven starts this season, he owns a 3.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 3%. He keeps the ball on the ground and he’s pitching at home in a good ballpark.
Chalk don't Fail us Now
Gonzalez has pitched well this season and draws the best matchup of the slate. Chalk Gio is never good Gio, but people change — they grow. The biggest positive in this matchup is that the Padres don’t draw many walks. They have one batter in their projected lineup with a walk rate above 9%. Gonzalez tends to nibble around the corners, which could actually be a good thing against the free-swinging Padres.