DFS Alerts
Refreshed and Ready to Rock in a Double-Header
Jose Abreu missed a game and a half earlier this week due to illness, but he should be ready to go for today’s double-header after returning to the lineup on Friday. The White Sox draw a pair of favorable matchups here against a young call-up in Game 1 and the struggling Eric Skoglund in Game 2. Skoglund has allowed awful numbers to right-handed bats so far this season that include a .410 wOBA and 46% hard contact rate. Abreu is a key cog in the middle of this order and is a core play for me in the Game 2 matchup.
A Core Play Despite Not Being at Home
We almost always only consider these Rockies to be core plays when they are hitting at their friendly home park of Coors Field, but Arenado does rise to core status for me here despite being on the road. While his splits are stark against lefties on the road compared to at home, the matchup is good enough to where I can let that slide a little bit. Caleb Smith is a young LHP who has struggled against righties so far this year, and he will likely have trouble with Arenado. Smith has allowed a .342 wOBA to RHBs this season to go along with a hefty 41% hard contact rate. Don’t sleep on the Colorado third baseman here even though he is on the road.
Plus Batter in a Plus Matchup
So, looking at Mancini’s numbers, it would appear that he is better against RHP than LHP, but reverse splits batters are something I rarely buy into. I believe this may be a sample size problem so I’m going under the assumption that he is splits neutral. In any case, this price is way too cheap. Mancini owns a career .352 wOBA and a .198 ISO and draws a matchup against Liriano who has a 35% hard hit rate and 18.5% k rate vs. righties, plus he has one of the highest walk rates in the league. Guy are gonna be on base, so the RBI’s will be there and with the hard hit rate Mancini has a good shot at a bomb. Add in that this is one of the highest totals on the slate with him at the top of the order and you know that he’s gonna get plenty of at bats.
Why is this guy still so cheap
For the life of me I can’t understand why Bour is so cheap. He was one of the top hitters in the league last year and is showing similar numbers this year. He ha a .378 wOBA and a .467 xwOBA against RHP since the beggining of last season and draws a matchup against German Marquez who whos a 4.21 xFIP and 33.6% Hard Hit rate since the 2017. I don’t understand this price at all and he is the best PT/$ play on the entire slate. No More questions, go figure out what to do with the rest of your lineup.
Start of Friday's SEA-CLE game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. However, the Indians have already confirmed that they are planning first pitch for 7:20 pm EST, so approximately just a 10-minute delay as the grounds crew removes the tarp from and prepares the field for play. The late start is better news for the prospects of Corey Kluber not being pulled from his start early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there is an outside chance that the second line of showers could develop and force another weather delay later in the contest.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter
Austin Barnes (138 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP) moves up to the two spot against Derek Holland (RHBs .398 wOBA since 2017)
Although it might not look quite as bad this year in a park that can hide some faults, right-handed batters have a .398 wOBA (.400 xwOBA) against Derek Holland since last season. This includes a 41.4 Hard% and 32.2 GB%. The interesting thing about the Dodger order tonight is not only do they have a pair of hitters that maul left-handed pitching, but they’re both fairly cheap too. Austin Barnes (138 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP since 2017) finds himself in the two spot tonight, while Kike Hernandez (141 wRC+, .289 ISO) is becoming accustomed to the three hole with Justin Turner still out. No Dodger right-hander is more than $3.8K on DraftKings or $3.1K on FanDuel tonight.
Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez, Derek Holland
Clayton Richard is generating fewer ground balls, lots of hard contact against right-handed batters
Clayton Richards has previously been dominant at least in the fact that left-handed batters could not get the ball off the ground against him, while right-handed batters still have a 55.6 GB% since last season, but also a .379 wOBA (.359 xwOBA) with a 38.5 Hard%. If we’re looking at just this year, it’s a 47 GB% and 43.9 Hard%. In fact, that ground ball rate against right-handed batters is below 46% in four of his five starts and the hard hit rate has been above 35% in every one. This makes a few Mets bats very interesting tonight, despite the low 3.9 implied run line. This includes Yoenis Cespedes (94 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Todd Frazier (124 wRC+, .315 ISO), Wilmer Flores (113 wRC+, .233 ISO) and maybe Asdrubal Cabrera (152 wRC+, .341 xwOBA, .130 ISO). The lineup has not yet been confirmed, but although unlikely, keep an eye on Amed Rosario (126 wRC+, .235 ISO) as a low priced SS if he finds himself batting higher in the lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores, Asdrubal Cabrera, Amed Rosario Yankees with a surprisingly low 4.36 implied run line against a fly ball prone southpaw (Andrew Heaney)
Andrew Heaney has some interesting numbers through two starts (30.2 K%, 79.2 mph aEV), but it has been only two starts and when you add in five more from last year, right-handed batters have a .472 wOBA and 51.4 Hard% against him (27.9 GB%). That’s dangerous against a powerful, predominantly right-handed Yankee lineup that can hit it out of any park. Among projected right-handed batters (lineup not confirmed yet), nobody with more than 30 PAs against LHP since last season (which excludes Miguel Andujar – 199 wRC+, 50 Hard% over the last week – and Gleyber Torres) has a wRC+ below 130 or ISO below .190. Remove Aaron Hicks and it’s 140 wRC+ and .280 ISO. Of course, that group is Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez. Heaney allowed three home runs to the Giants in his last start (also at home). The Yankees have just a 4.36 implied run line that’s middle of the board, but that’s a bit of a surprise considering their early season and expected continued prowess against LHP (131 wRC+, 7.0 K-BB%, 17.0 HR/FB).
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Andrew Heaney, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar Some rain and areas of light concern in Kevin's Friday evening update
Though there are a few spots with some rain in the area, the overall concern level is fairly low on Friday night. To find out which spots those are and if they may affect a top pitcher, read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can catch Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET with further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Marcus Stroman has the worst aEV (94.2 mph), Barrels/BBE (12.9%) and 95+ mph EV (59.7%) on the board
Texas bats are generally not very attractive outside of Texas and Marcus Stroman in generally not a pitcher DFS players like to pick on (21.7 K%, 69.4 GB%), but his ERA is 8.55 for a reason and it’s not all bad luck. His 94.2 mph aEV, 12.9% Barrels/BBE and 59.7% 95+ mph EV are all worse than Chris Tillman. A left-handed batter with some lift perhaps? Joey Gallo (122 wRC+, .332 ISO, 54.8 FB% vs RHP since last season) may qualify.
Other tagged players: Marcus Stroman Aaron Nola struck out a season high nine and has gone at least six innings in three straight
Aaron Nola got his act together last time out, striking out nine Pirates and has now gone at least six innings in three straight and has not allowed a run this year. His strikeout rate for the season is only league average now with the ground ball rate a bit below 50%, but his -11.8 Hard-Soft% is best on the board as is his 2.4% Barrels/BBE. His .260 xwOBA and 25.9% 95+ mph EV are both second best. The Braves are not an easy assignment (105 wRC+ vs RHP) and don’t strike out a lot (20.9 K% vs RHP), but that’s enough and they don’t have a ton of power. The park in Philly is more power friendly than a positive run environment. Nola is a spot for players to go who want an arm with top potential, but don’t want to pay in excess of $10K for it. The Braves have a 3.45 implied run line above only teams facing deGrom, Kluber and Strasburg tonight.
Jose Urena has an 11+ SwStr% in three straight starts and faces the Rockies (57 wRC+ vs RHP) at home
Though both Nolan Arenado (.226 ISO) and Chris Iannetta (.236 ISO), batting eight tonight, have an even 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, Charlie Blackmon (146 wRC+, .300 ISO) is really the only batter a right-handed pitcher has to fear in a negative run environment. The Rockies have their familiar 81 wRC+ (24.5 K%) on the road and 57 wRC+ (23.2 K%, 2.9 Hard-Soft%) vs RHP this year. Jose Urena is throwing a few more sliders and has his swinging strike rate up to a career high 10.8% (by two full points) and it’s been above 11% in three straight starts. He hasn’t seen the accompanying strikeout rate spike (18.3%), but even that’s more than three points above his career rate and he’s in a great spot here at a very low price. His $4.7 tag on DraftKings could allow players to construct a strong lineup built around a top arm and still have some upside hope from their secondary arm.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Chris Iannetta Lower priced than expected Cleveland bats have a second best 3.99 implied run line against Erasmo Ramirez
It’s only 136 innings, but Erasmo Ramirez has a significant platoon split since last season. Lefties have a .357 wOBA and .381 xwOBA against him with a 43.8 Hard% that is unlikely to play well in Cleveland. The more amazing thing is that Cleveland has the second highest implied run line on Friday night (4.99) and most of their bats are cheaper than Detroit. Only Jose Ramirez (149 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Francisco Lindor (106 wRC+, .226 ISO) reach above $4K on either site. , Michael Brantley (126 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Yonder Alonso (136 wRC+, .231 ISO) or Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .256 ISO) may be considered value plays even if this Cleveland lineup has not entirely gotten it going as a group yet.
Other tagged players: Erasmo Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion Chris Tillman has an 8.09 FIP and .479 ISO, though Detroit bats are not as cheap as players might hope
Chris Tillman has an 8.09 FIP and paralyzing .479 xwOBA. One would hope that Detroit (99 wRC+, 18.7 K% vs RHP) would offer a low cost stacking opportunity tonight. That does not appear the case. Tiger bats are more moderately priced than we’d probably like to see. Miguel Cabrera (85 wRC+, .149 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is a tough pay up, but does have a 222 wRC+ and 61.1 Hard% over the last week. Jeimer Candelario (132 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (103 wRC+, .186 ISO) are other fairly expensive bats here, but also the only ones above a 91 wRC+ or .153 ISO against right-handers since last year.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Chris Tillman Blake Snell has a 13+ SwStr% in four straight starts, has pitched into seventh without a walk each of last two
The Red Sox have a 4.8 implied run line that’s fifth highest on the board and two right-handed batters (Mookie Betts 136 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP since last year & J.D. Martinez 214 wRC+, .445 ISO) who should scare the hell out of any southpaw, but beyond that…not much. In fact, only Xander Bogaerts (104 wRC+, .111 ISO) is above a 95 wRC+ and Hanley Ramirez (73 wRC+, .184 ISO) is above a .150 ISO among remaining bats. In fact, Boston now has just a 51 wRC+ (23.8 K%) vs LHP and a 56 wRC+ (27.1 K%) overall this last week. Blake Snell, on the other hand, has pitched into the seventh inning in two straight starts, striking out 15 of 48, but perhaps most importantly, not issuing a single walk. His swinging strike rate has been above 13% in each of his last four starts. Betts and Martinez remain in play for sure (you always want a piece of J.D. against lefties), but consider a low priced Snell in your secondary DK spot in GPPs.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts