DFS Alerts
Jesse Winker (160 wRC+, .401 xwOBA vs RHP) a major bargain against Phil Hughes
It’s not often that you find the Reds (4.65 implied runs) on the top quarter of the board outside home (or Coors), but Phil Hughes will do that. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .370 with a hard hit rate above 40% against him since last year. Eugenio Suarez (112 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since last season) continues to be minimum priced on DraftKings, where the entire lineup is low to moderately priced on DraftKings. Jesse Winker (160 wRC+, .401 xwOBA, .196 ISO) is the value play here. Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .438 ISO, .237 ISO) gets the obligatory reminder. Scooter Gennett (129 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Scott Schebler (102 wRC+, .267 ISO) are useful bats here as well.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Phil Hughes, Eugenio Suarez
Orioles have the third highest implied run line (4.89) against Mike Fiers tonight
The Baltimore Orioles have a 4.89 implied run line that’s third best on the board against Mike Fiers. That might say more about the opposition and quality of arms on the board otherwise than a Baltimore offense with just a 64 wRC+ and 72 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Fiers has a 13.2 K%, but also a 10.4 SwStr% through three starts. Fiers’ career splits have been all over the place. Most recently, he’s had none via xwOBA since last year (.345-6 vs batters from both side). Where is all this offense for the Orioles projected to come from though? There’s Manny Machado (110 wRC+, .370 xwOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP since last season) for one. And also Trey Mancini (121 wRC+, .208 ISO) at a completely reasonable price. Next, it’s really up to players to find low bats here they think can take Fiers deep. Maybe that’s Adam Jones (107 wRC+, .195 ISO) or Chris Davis (95 wRC+, .218 ISO). Your not going to find another batter above either a 90 wRC+ or .150 ISO against RHP (since 2017) after that.
Other tagged players: Mike Fiers, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Chris Davis Danny Duffy is a relatively inexpensive arm ($6.8K DK) with some upside (White Sox 29.2 K% vs LHP)
Danny Duffy has been a hit or miss pitcher maybe for the majority of his career, but certainly this year. It seems like players can find a some exposure that makes sense on either side of this matchup against the White Sox (4.34 implied runs), especially for GPPs. Duffy struck out eight in six shutout innings with two hits against the Blue Jays before getting throttled by the Tigers last time out. The upside against a banged up offense with a 29.2 K% (but also a 22 HR/FB) vs LHP is interesting for a reasonable $6.8K on DraftKings. Alternatively, the White Sox hit him with an entirely right-handed lineup, against which is wOBA and xwOBA are in perfect agreement at .332 since last season. It’s not the worst platoon split in the world, but the White Sox do have a few righties who can do some damage in Jose Abreu (169 wRC+, .416 xwOBA, .273 ISO, 41.6 Hard%) most proficiently, Welington Castillo (129 wRC+, .212 ISO) least expensively, and Matt Davidson (101 wRC+, .218 ISO).
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo, Matt Davidson Jacob deGrom tops the board with a 14.6 SwStr% and .235 wOBA plus he gets to face the Padres (28.4 K% vs RHP) tonight
Friday night’s board is loaded with quality pitching and in addition to that, several arms with significant upside potential at lower price points. Covering just the $10K+ arms, Jacob deGrom has had the goods last two times out, striking out 22 of 54 batters in 14.1 innings. He tops the board with a 14.6 SwStr%, 26.1 IFFB%, and .235 xwOBA. He now gets to face the Padres (28.4 K% vs RHP, 31.5 K% last seven days). He’s probably pitched the best among tonight’s top guys and has the best matchup. Stephen Strasburg struck out a season high 10 last time out and has gone at least six innings in every start. The Diamondbacks have a 25.5 K% vs RHP. He may be over-shadowed by Scherzer, but he’s now only had one season of his career below a 20 K-BB%. If he’s going to be over-shadowed on this board, players should be very strongly considering him for their lineups. Corey Kluber has been more great (27.4 K%, 3.08 SIERA) than completely unbelievable (like he was last year). He’s missed seven innings in just one start this year and even then by a single out. He did allow two HRs and strike out just four in his last start in Baltimore, which qualifies as a poor outing for him. He has a .213 xwOBA at home since last season. The Mariners may be a more difficult matchup than the previous two pitchers have, but are not a reason to fade Kluber in and of themselves. He is the most expensive pitcher on the board, beating out deGrom by $500 to $600 on either site. Luis Severino has struck out at least six in every start (though no more than eight) and has gone seven innings twice in five starts. He’s walked a few more batters, but his ground ball rate is still above average if not quite 50% and the contact quality has been an early improvement (1.4 Hard-Soft%, 31.1 Hard-Soft%). The Angels are predominantly right-handed (Severino .241 xwOBA since last season), but don’t strike out a lot (19.3%). While the teams facing the previous three pitchers all have an implied run line above three but below 3.1, the Angels are about a half run higher (3.67). Lastly, Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 30.7 K% and 1.99 ERA leading him to an $11.1 K price tag on DraftKings. However, his 11.0 SwStr% and 3.33 SIERA are slightly less optimistic and he’s only completed seven innings three times in 28 starts since 2017. He’s got a quality matchup in San Francisco, but that price tag is going to be very difficult to pay off.
Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, Luis Severino, Hyun-Jin Ryu More Free Squares
As with Eugenio Suarez, we simply have a pricing error from FanDuel on a player coming off the DL. Assuming Bogaerts is back in the lineup tonight, there’s just no reason not to use him at minimum salary. I prefer Suarez as the punt facing the worse pitcher, but Bogaerts is just too talented to be here at this price. As much as I love the high end shortstops, I’d consider using the UT spot on a SS tonight. It’s amazing how much opens up if you use Suarez/Bogaerts at these salaries.
A Solid Mid-Priced Stack
The Blue Jays might get ignored a little bit tonight given the fact that we have several good spots for offense, but I like them a lot in tournament formats. Mike Minor has decent (but not great) surface numbers, and I expect regression in the long-term. He is allowing hard contact at a whopping 41% clip and has never been more than a league average arm. Facing a Toronto team that profiles well against a mediocre LHP doesn’t sound like a recipe for success. Yes, the Blue Jays have been ravaged by injuries and don’t have their biggest lefty-masher in Josh Donaldson right now, but the likes of Hernandez, Pearce, and Smoak make for a solid mini-stack in GPPs tonight. Expect a RH-dominant lineup here that could give Minor fits.
Other tagged players: Steve Pearce, Justin Smoak
Get Your Gas Cans Here!
Chris Tillman just isn’t good any more. He has given up at least four runs in all his starts this season, and his numbers are pretty much laughably bad across the board. I have yet to stack the Tigers all season, but this is as good of a time as any to give them a shot. They got shut out by Ivan Nova and company yesterday, but I would be willing to bet that Tillman doesn’t have that shutout-type stuff — even against a below average offense. Don’t bother going with the bottom of the order here, as it does get very weak down there. A top of the order Detroit stack definitely has a chance to pay off in tournaments this evening.
Other tagged players: Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin Time for a Breakout at Low Ownership?
The Dodgers offense has been struggling so far this year, and Derek Holland actually hasn’t been terrible for the Giants. Those trends aren’t likely to continue. There is too much talent on this Dodgers team, and Holland is allowing hard contact at a 39% clip so far this season. That rises to over 42% against RHBs. The best way to stack up the Dodgers tonight is to fade the pricey lefties in Seager and Bellinger, and load up on the more affordable righties… and we will likely get low ownership on the stack as well. I love that idea in GPP formats.
Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Matt Kemp A Lot of Fly Balls
I think I have been higher on Mike Minor than most people this year but Friday seems to be a good spot to grab some cheap Blue Jay righties. Russell Martin leads my list of Blue Jay righties largely due to position (more pertinent on DK). Minor has been good as a starter this year but is living on an insane 28.6% ground ball rate. What does that mean? A lot of fly balls (53.6%). Fly balls = HRs, especially in hitter friendly stadiums. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minor stick around his current ERA throughout the year (3.86) but do think he’ll give up the long ball when he’s off. Look to Martin, and other Blue Jays, for a cheap source of power.
Tonight's Top Pitching Choice
There are a ton of elite pitchers going tonight, but I’ll side with deGrom as my favorite of the group. He gets a nice park upgrade going to San Diego, and he gets to face an offense that is very attackable with his skill set. The Padres lead the major leagues with a 28% strikeout rate as a team this season, and deGrom owns a 31.5% strikeout rate himself. He’s got a very high ceiling in this matchup, and that is enough to slide him just ahead of Corey Kluber for me.
An Elite GPP Option on the Cheap
Castillo’s surface stats don’t do justice to his stuff. and he has been victimized by a 20% HR/FB rate so far in 2018. While the results haven’t been there just yet and he will never be the top pitcher for run prevention purposes, we can’t just ignore a 14.1% swinging strike rate. The strikeouts should come up from where they currently are, and Castillo is very affordable right now. I think you need to target an ace in single pitcher formats tonight, but Castillo is firmly in play as a GPP option as a SP #2 on DraftKings or FantasyDraft.
Dependent on Gabe
This play is going to depend entirely on how Gabe Kapler is feeling this beautiful Friday. Aaron Altherr has gotten the start and hit fifth the last couple of games against right handed pitching but there’s a chance that Nick Williams will slot in for Altherr against Teheran. While Altherr is the better player, Williams has the platoon which is huge when facing someone with splits as wide as Teheran’s (.342 wOBA vs LHB, .269 wOBA vs RHB). Altherr is more of a GPP/stack option if he’s in the lineup, whereas Williams is a strong source of salary relief in all formats should he hit fifth.
Other tagged players: Nick Williams Cheap Power
Detroit @ Baltimore projects to be one of the highest scoring games of the night so it makes sense to mine for some value here. Chris Davis has been awful to start the year so I won’t blame anyone for skipping right over this recommendation but it’s undeniably an amazing power spot for Davis against Mike Fiers. Projection systems agree with me as both THE BAT and SIS (both available on RG Marketplace) give Davis a HR probability that is top five of all hitters on the slate.
Value in the Outfield
The Blue Jays are one of the top offenses to target tonight. They are dirt cheap and they are playing at home against Mike Minor, who is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. I love both Teoscar Hernandez and Steve Pearce and you can pair the two together. Toronto has one of the highest implied totals of the slate and all of the Blue Jays’ outfielders are underpriced.
Best Matchup of the Slate
With 14 games on the schedule, there are a few teams in the running for having the best matchup of the slate. My pick goes to the Reds, as they get to face Phil Hughes. Over his last ten major league starts, he has a SIERA over five with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He has a high fly-ball rate and he gives up a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. Joey Votto stands out here, as he owns a .438 xwOBA against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.