DFS Alerts
Strong Talent, Poor Matchup
It feels a little weird writing Gerrit Cole up as a “GPP” option with how dominant he has been to start the season but an increased price tag combined with a poor matchup against the Angels may have Cole relatively low owned on Monday’s smaller slate. Cole has racked up an impressive 41 strikeouts over 28 IP through four games to start the year posting a 15.3 SwStr%. Tanaka + Carrasco pop as better pts/$ options (especially Tanaka on DK) but Cole has represented that he has by far the safest floor of the trio to go along with his unrivaled upside. Overall I’m having a tough time pegging what Cole’s actual ownership will be but even if you think Cole projects at relatively high ownership you could differentiate with taking a double high-priced SP approach (Cole + Carrasco) in GPPs.
Must Play Territory
Assuming David Dahl finds himself back in the lineup tonight, this is simply a free square on DK/FDFRT. Dahl was a hyped propsect heading into last year, but ended up missing most of the year with injury. There is no reason to view him any differently when we did last year, and he is simply priced as if he’s facing Clayton Kershaw or Chris Sale in the Grand Canyon. This salary is just a mistake, and I will not overthink it.
Use This To Make That Work
Tonight is all about finding the right pieces to make the high end plays fit. Marcus Semien jumps off the page as being way too cheap on DK/FDRT in Texas against Matt Moore. Moore allows a lot of hard contact to right-handed batters, and in the early going, his strikeouts are down to 14.8% against righties, and even last season, they were a below average 19.4%. Semien should be at the top of the lineup for a high upside Oakland team, and after a 2017 season where he posted a 41% hard hit rate against lefties, he is right back at it this year, again sitting above 40% in hard contact.
A Worthy Spend In All Formats
If you’re not paying up at pitcher tonight, the reason should be to get these high end Rockies bats. I am prioritizing Blackmon ahead of Nolan Arenado tonight, as Blackmon is showing a whole new level of power this season. The Rockies are easily the top offense on this slate against a low strikeout, high walk pitcher in Bryan Mitchell. In the extremely small sample size this season, Mitchell has just one strikeout against left-handed batters while allowing 46% hard hits. It’s hard to imagine how this could end well for him.
Get Him While You Can
I will rarely have three pitchers listed as Core Plays. Given that you can only use two at a time, I understand that it looks funny. But tonight, we have clear strong choices in three different price ranges. Up top with Cole/Carrasco, in the middle with Tanaka, and at the low end with top prospect Walker Buehler making his first career start. This is one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, posting a 34% strikeout rate with 61% ground balls in Triple-A last season. He has the type of stuff that could dominate immediately, and you can’t ask for a better opening start than at home against the Marlins. I generally like to play it cautious with rookies, but this upside at this salary cannot be ignored.
Skills vs Salary
The risk is real with Tanaka. As we saw last year, despite the strong strikeout/walk numbers, home runs continue to do a problem. However, DK/FDRFT has given us too much of a discount for this risk and at this salary, I can’t overlook a guy with this type of upside. His 5.5% walk rate from 2017 was a career high, and that is just elite level control, and when combined with a 25.8% strikeout rate, currently at 24.5% this season, there are too many ways things can go right for him. It’s silly how cheap he is, and at he is at the point where the reward outweighs the risk.
Either Way The Skills Go, They Are Good
I assume Gerrit Cole will be the popular high end pitching choice tonight, and I am on board with him. I would love to be able to use both Cole and Carrasco on DK/FDRFT, but when forced to choose, I am leaning towards the salary savings and the matchup for Carrasco. Carrasco’s strikeouts are down to open the season, while’s Cole’s are way up, but Carrasco has a longer history of strikeout ability, and even while they are down at 20.6%, he is still an elite pitcher with just 3.9% walks and 20.8% hard hits. Cole has a difficult matchup for strikeouts tonight, while Carrasco gets a boost against the Orioles, who come in with the 3rd highest K rate in the league against right-handed pitching. Either the strikeouts will come up, or he’ll continue to pile up easy outs. I’m happy with either.
Number One Dodger Prospect
Walker Buehler will be making his first career start tonight, and as one of the top prospect in baseball, a lot of people are excited to watch him pitch tonight. He had an above average strikeout rate in the Minors last season and had a 10.2% swinging strike rate in 9.1 innings out of the bullpen last year. I worry about the pitch count tonight, but that’s really the only thing I’m worried about here. He’s a hard throwing righty, with an above average curveball and a slider. The Marlins projected starters have a .123 ISO with a .290 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They also have a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. This is a great spot for his first career start.
Bradley Zimmer scratched Sunday; Rajai Davis replaces him in the lineup
Zimmer has been scratched with a mild right ankle sprain, allowing Rajai Davis to enter the lineup in the in the ninth spot. Davis is a potential GPP dart as part of an Indians stack thanks to his ability to swipe bags, but he’s not all that intriguing otherwise.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko Other tagged players: Rajai Davis
Stack This Team And Pay Up For Pitching
Texas and Detroit are two of my favorite stacks of the day and fortunately both are incredibly cheap, allowing me to pay up for two stud pitchers on Draftkings and FantasyDraft. I like the stack on FanDuel but won’t be using it there quite as much. Detroit as a team hits much better during the day (not just Miggy) and have had some explosive games recently, scoring 12 and 13 runs in 2 of their last 4 games. Today they have a great matchup against the lefty Skoglund and that awful Royals bullpen. Castellanos, Cabrera and VMart all have an ISO of .229 or better vs lefties since the start of 2016, and James McCann is a noted lefty masher who had a .268 ISO vs lefties last year. Jacoby Jones has four straight double digit fantasy point games on DK and Candelario has 4 in his last 6. The Tigers are cheap, will be low owned and make for a great GPP stack today.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, JaCoby Jones, James McCann, Victor Martinez, Jeimer Candelario
Graybeard
Phil Hughes is making his 2018 Major League debut and you’re going to want to grab some exposure to Rays hitters – especially on FanDuel where we aren’t blessed with the option of cheap SEA/TEX or CHC/COL bats. Span has been wonderful offensively to start the season (121 wRC+) yet he’s remained extremely cheap across the industry. Span isn’t a “lock” by any stretch of the imagination but he’s one of the top projected pt/$ plays on the board and should be a staple in your two stud SP lineups on DraftKings.
Cheap Sunday Stack
The Rangers/Mariners game is one of my favorite games to target today. With Ramirez and Perez on the mound, the wind blowing out and two questionable bullpens, both offenses are in great spots. Both are too cheap as well. Especially the Rangers on DraftKings. You can stack Texas and afford to pay up at both pitching spots easily. Of the six Texas bats I’m using only Gallo is above 3.4k on DraftKings and they are all affordable on FantasyDraft as well. On FanDuel the pricing is OK but they are not quite the bargain they are on DK and FantasyDraft. We have no total yet for this game but expect it to be one of the highest scoring on the slate. I will have a ton of exposure to both sides but primarily this cheap Rangers stack.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Ronald Guzman Under-appreciated
I feel like Dietrich’s offensive skill-set against right handed pitching goes a little under-appreciated. Dietrich is no offensive juggernaut by any means but he is an above average offensive player when given the platoon (112 wRC+) and can flash some pop on occasion (.178 ISO). The Marlins get a very favorable park shift with this game playing at Miller Park and Dietrich is one of my favorite value options on the slate provided he continues to hit near the top of the order.
Cash Your Tickets
I would be remiss if there was a slate that Cashner pitched and I didn’t write about my disdain for him. Cashner has carried over his devil magic into 2018 as he’s posted a 3.00 ERA (5.61 FIP, 4.80 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA) over his first four starts of the season. One of the reasons why I like targeting Cashner has held true so far this year – he struggles with the long ball and he’s already allowed 5 HRs over 24 IP. Cashner isn’t doing a good job at generating soft contact (10.9 Soft%) nor is he doing a good job at inducing ground balls (12.7 LD%, 47.6 FB%). That batted ball profile is the worst of his career and will either regress back to his career mean (which isn’t great anyway) or eventually lead to getting lit up. I’m banking on the latter.
Miles Apart
Starting pitcher #2 on DraftKings may end up depending on lineups and what sort of hitting value becomes available. As Sunday is a typical rest day, we may find ourselves in a spot where we are able to get enough value (let’s go Cubbies, give us La Stella + Caratini) to squeeze in a higher end option as our second starter (Severino, McCullers). If value doesn’t open up we’re kind of stuck in the mid-range where options are less than plentiful on Sunday. Mikolas stands out as the best mid-tier SP2 as he’ll get a favorable matchup against a poor Reds lineup. Mikolas has been a bit underwhelming in terms of strike outs (18 K%) but there are some signs he’s been outperforming his 4.26 ERA – largely he’s been unlucky with the long ball. Mikolas is the guy I currently have slotted in as my SP2 but I will be exploring ways to upgrade him as lineups come out.