DFS Alerts
Going Klubbing
Kluber pops as the best overall option against a struggling Orioles offense. As a team, Baltimore owns the third highest strikeout rate against right handed pitching to start the year (26.7%) and the second worst wRC+ (66). Kluber’s 2018 has been as impressive as ever as he continues to pair his pinpoint control (5.5% walk rate) to go along with filthy strikeout stuff (30.3% strikeout rate). Luis Severino and Lance McCullers make for strong options in their own right but don’t offer the type of floor that Kluber does.
Matching Up Nicely Against a Mediocre Pitcher
If I were to put multiple hitters from one team onto my cash game rosters today, it would probably be via the Indians left-handed bats. Andrew Cashner never seems to get hammered like we all expect him to given his profile, but he does struggle with left-handed bats. He has just a 15% ground ball rate against LHBs so far this year, and while that is partially due to sample size, he has always struggled to contain the batted balls against lefties. You can make decisions here based on salary if you like. Brantley has been swinging the bat well right now and is the best option on DraftKings, while Alonso is extremely cheap on FanDuel. All the Cleveland lefties are in play today.
Other tagged players: Yonder Alonso
Lefty Masher Alert, Part II!
Braun has always had stronger splits against left-handed pitching, and I like his odds of success against the struggling Caleb Smith. The Marlins’ starter owns an ERA close to 7.00 and a SIERA and xFIP over 5.00 right now, and his walk rate is all the way up to 19.2%. RHBs have posted a .404 wOBA against him, and he doesn’t have the weapons to fool a professional hitter like Braun. Fire the Milwaukee slugger up as a core play today.
Lefty Masher Alert!
Stanton may be off to a relatively difficult start to his Yankees career, but he has shown signs of coming around in recent days and did hit a home run on Friday. Two of his four home runs this year have come off lefties, and let’s not forget that this guy has put up video game type numbers against LHP in his career. That includes a whopping .480 wOBA and .441 ISO against them a year ago. He won’t get overpowered by Jaime Garcia, and this is the type of matchup where we could see a patented multi-HR game from the Yankees slugger.
Attacking a Weak Offense
If you are looking to save money at pitcher today, Mikolas seems like the most logical choice. He has been solid if unspectacular in his first few starts for the Cardinals, but it’s clear that he’s not going to beat himself. The control is very good (as it was when he pitched over in Japan), so he will make the opponent put the ball in play. He’s also a sizable home favorite against a Reds team that now sits at 3-17 on the year, including 0-6 against the Cardinals head-to-head. He may not have the most strikeout upside on the board, but Mikolas is a safe cash game choice if you want to save a little salary with a pitching selection.
The Best Pitcher in Baseball?
He’s probably not the first name that comes to mind for most, but you can really make an argument that Corey Kluber is the best pitcher in baseball right now. He had a 34% strikeout rate a year ago and still sits at 30%+ in the early going of 2018. He owns a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-twos, and he rarely beats himself with walks. Baltimore’s offense is scuffling a bit and dealing with injuries right now, and a matchup against Kluber is certainly not the recipe to get back on track. This slate doesn’t have a ton of top tier pitching options, and Kluber is clearly at the head of the pack.
Young Stud at a Real Low Price
So let me start this out by saying that Chirnos is really good. Last year in AAA Chrinos owned a 3.16 xFIP, 50% Ground Ball rate, 22% K%, and a 4% BB%. He’s given us similar numbers so far in the bigs, but the pitch count has been a concern (Chrinos has not pitched more than 6 innings this season). This may be troubling if it weren’t for the price tag. At just $5.7K on DK and going against a high K lineup in the Twins, Chirinos has huge point per/$ upside and there isn’t a huge amount of downside considering his price. What you’re hoping for his a 5-inning, 7-K outing and settling for a 5-inning, 4-K outing (which would more than pay off his price). This is a pitcher with good stuff who helps you spend up on some quality Coors bats without getting too much of a risk.
Not Happy About it, But I Love the Price
Let me start off by saying that Garcia is about as safe in this matchup as leaving the house for a three-week vacation with the stove lit. That being said, there is a whole lot of upside in this matchup; in the past two seasons Garcia does own a 20% K rate and is going up against a lineup that strikes out at a large clip (see Stanton’s “I’m just gonna swing every time and hope I hit it at bats”). Garcia is much better against lefties, but you won’t see a whole lot of easy ones in this lineup. What you are hoping for here is that Garcia can keep the Yanks from hitting any bombs here (see Garcia’s 56% ground ball rate over the last two seasons) and striking out at their average K rate. If this happens then you’ve got a cheap pitcher with some good stuff performing well enough to take down a GPP with Coors on the slate. Throw this guy in and hope that he keeps the ball on the ground like he has the last few seasons.
Best Catcher on the Board
If you’re playing on FD most people don’t like to use catchers. If you’re playing on FantasyDraft most people don’t like to use catchers. If you’re playing on DK there aren’t a whole lot of decent catcher options. In any case, Iannetta is the best catcher play on the entire slate. We aren’t sure what the Rockeis are going to do with their lineup against a lefty now that Arenado is back, but there is a decent chance Ianetta is near the top of the order. Ianetta owns a decent .352 wOBA against lefties over the last two years, but owns a great (for a catcher) wOBA against lefties this year against at .392 (.482 xwOBA). From a Point Per/$ standpoint there is not a better catcher on the slate and it’s not close. Going against a pitcher that throws a sinker or knuckle curve 50% of the time (which ain’t gonna work in Coors) is an ideal situation. Lock in Ianetta in cash and only fade him in GPPs if you’re worried about ownership.
Bring in the Fire
So, Brantley has had multiple hits almost every day since I’ve made a good decision (outside of the 21st of April), he has had multiple hits in every single game in the last 10 days. This guy is a career .349 wOBA hitter (I’ve seen better, but not for the price) hitter with a near .400 wOBA this year going against a pitcher that has to pitch around nearly every lefty he faces (15.6% K%, 11.6% BB%, 35% Hard Hit rate). Cashner is going up against a lineup that has way too many lefties to pitch around and Brantley is the guy that worries me most. I never want to stack against Cashner (even though his numbers aren’t great), but a lefty-heavy lineup is the time to do it and Brantley is the best point-per-$ play in the lineup. You can fade him if you want, but if you do, I’m using your money to take a nice lady out to Taco Bell at the end of the night.
You're Really Reading This Right Now
Really. Really??? You’re actually reading this right now. If you haven’t locked this guy into your lineup, you are making a huge mistake. This is one of the best hitters in the league and he is priced like the $2 beer I purchased this weekend at a bar that has three bouncers from the local state pen on the pay roll. Fun fact, Bour is going against a righty who has a 10% walk rate and a 35% hard hit rate against lefties going in a huge hitter’s park. Bour is priced like a 10 hour old AM/PM hot dog that I stopped for on my Uber ride home, but with none of the consequences. In 2017 Bour had a .253 ISO and a .464 xwOBA vs. RHP and the guy is still figuring things out. Bour is the best Point Per/$ play on the entire slate and if you ain’t playing him, then good luck explaining the bad decisions you’re making today.
Buster Posey (back stiffness) scratched Saturday; Pablo Sandoval replaces
Posey has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not play in Saturday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels due to back stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Pablo Sandoval, who will serve as the designated hitter and slot directly into Posey’s cleanup spot in the order, which means that the remainder of the Giants lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Garrett Richards this evening.
As reported by: Andrew Baggarly via Twitter
Start of Saturday’s SEA-TEX game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers on Saturday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, but the Rangers have stated they plan to begin to play one hour after the tarp has been removed from the field. The late start is better news for the prospects of James Paxton not being pulled from his start because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the delay is expected to be lengthy and there’s still a possibility that the game is postponed.
As reported by: Evan Grant via Twitter Lone trouble spot (SEA-TEX) in Saturday's updated MLB forecast
There’s some chance of light precipitation in Denver for the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies, but the primary game of concern looks to be in Texas, where Kevin Roth has given the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers game a firm grade of ORANGE due to some nasty storms in the area that could lead to a late start and possibly a postponement. A late start would be a blessing in disguise for the prospects of Mariners southpaw James Paxton on Saturday’s main slate, but the chance of a second delay or even a postponement relegates him to a high-risk, tournament-only option. As always, be sure to check out the full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below, and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for all your weather-based daily fantasy needs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Even with a lowly 9.5% Soft%, Derek Holland has just a .244 BABIP this season
Holland is off to a surprisingly decent start to the 2018 campaign, allowing three earned runs or less in every outing and even flashing a bit of upside against the Arizona Diamondbacks, recording eight strikeouts in just six innings of work. Still, there’s a reason why Holland only had the chance to sneak into the San Francisco Giants starting rotation because of injuries to Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija during spring training, making it difficult to believe this effectiveness will hold up over the long term. Holland has done a solid job of limiting hard contact through two starts, but after surrendering a hard-hit ball 62.5% of the time in his previous start, his hard-hit percentage is back up to 38.1%, a number that becomes a recipe for disaster if he continues to all fly balls at a 52.4% clip. From a matchup perspective, the Los Angeles Angels have rolled out a lineup with nine right-handed hitters for Saturday’s contest in an effort to take advantage of Holland’s abysmal splits against right-handed hitters, evidenced by a 17.5% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 43.2% fly ball rate, and a massive 40.8% hard-hit percentage last season. All in all, those metrics led to a whopping .408 wOBA, 5.97 xFIP, and 2.26 HR/9 versus righties in 2017, essentially, nothing out of the ordinary for Holland over the last few years. Obviously, with a full lineup of righties, there aren’t many soft spots in the order for Holland to bail himself out of trouble, elevating the Angels to one of the top stacking candidates on Saturday’s main slate, and makes Justin Upton (43.5% HH%, 0.340 ISO, 0.446 wOBA vs LHP), Mike Trout (0.219 ISO, 0.392 wOBA vs LHP), Ian Kinsler (42.0% HH%, 0.236 ISO, 0.365 xwOBA vs LHP), and Zack Cozart (0.261 ISO, 0.403 wOBA vs LHP) all fantastic options for all daily fantasy formats, while Rene Rivera is an intriguing salary saver at the catcher position with a 0.250 ISO, 0.489 xwOBA, and 44.1% hard-hit percentage versus left-handed pitching the last two seasons.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart, Rene Rivera, Derek Holland