DFS Alerts
BOS-CLE will not start on time on Tuesday
We don’t have an estimated start time at this point, as the tarp is still on the field. The storms approaching Cleveland are thin (at least compared to the storms that came through earlier in the day) which could bode well, but they’ll need to clear out before things can really get going. It’s still looking like this game should play, so targeting bats on the Cleveland side as GPP plays certainly has merit.
As reported by: Tom Withers
Cubs the biggest run line mover of the afternoon (6.12 to 5.81)
There has been very little run line movement over the course of the afternoon. In fact, the Chicago Cubs are the only team to move over two-tenths of a run away from their early afternoon total. They’ve gone in the wrong direction, dropping from 6.12 runs to 5.81 runs currently, giving Baltimore the clear top spot on the board, as they’ve remained at 6.18 runs throughout the day. One would wonder what bettors like about Homer Bailey. Ben Zobrist has been scratched from the lineup and replaced by Ian Happ, but that’s not necessarily an offensive downgrade. Often, the reasoning behind a lot of these line moves is not immediately apparent. While the run line for the Cubs has dropped over the course of the afternoon, they’re still actually up a quarter of a run since opening at 5.55 runs last night. Players can see run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
No shortage of games with rain potential on Tuesday's MLB weather forecast, but no risks higher than YELLOW
We have a lengthy MLB weather forecast on our hands for Tuesday’s 14-game slate with a plethora of games checking in with some sort of risk classification from Kevin Roth. Fortunately, there are no contests with a grade higher than YELLOW, meaning that all hitters from every game remain fully in play for your daily fantasy rosters this evening. However, the games with in-game rain delay possibilities are worth monitoring closely if considering utilizing starting pitchers from said contests. So, be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Chris Archer expected to be top owned pitcher, but Lance Lynn could challenge on DraftKings
On a slate with 13 of 28 teams currently projected above 4.8 runs and four teams with an implied run line of 5.5 runs or higher, batters ownership is expected to be well spread out without a single batter currently projected to reach 20% ownership. Catcher is currently the most interesting position with Chris Iannetta, Gary Sanchez and Alex Avila all expected to be among the most popular plays on the board. While top offenses like the Orioles and Cubs are expected to be well represented tonight, cost could have an impact too with a guy like Adam Jones likely to be more popular on FanDuel where he costs just $3K. Chris Archer is the top pitcher on the board and is expected to be nearly twice as popular as any other FanDuel pitcher, though Lance Lynn could give him a run for his money on DraftKings for just $7.4K against the Padres. The Padres strike out a ton (25.3% vs RHP) and Lynn has 3.05 ERA, but that’s not nearly supported by a 4.73 SIERA or 4.36 DRA due to a .232 BABIP and 82 LOB%. He also has just a 15.3 K% over the last month. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page. Danny Duffy might be the better play, hosting the Rockies, at a similar cost and potentially half the ownership.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Lance Lynn, Danny Duffy, Alex Avila, Chris Iannetta, Adam Jones, Gary Sanchez Ben Zobrist scratched Tuesday due to travel issues; Ian Happ will start at 2B and bat 5th
Zobrist is still expected to make it to the park before this tilt concludes, but Ian Happ will now start at second base and bat 5th. It’s still possible that Zobrist works his way into this one, but he’s not playable as a DFS option. Happ is one of the bigger boom-or-bust mid-range plays against Homer Bailey, as he’s pretty much been giving you a home run or leaving you empty handed over the last few weeks. 15 of Happ’s 18 HRs have come off RHP, and he steps into play tonight with a very healthy .308 ISO vs. RHP.
As reported by: Sahadev Sharma Other tagged players: Ian Happ Mike Trout is tonight's top projected hitter; RHBs have a .396 wOBA against Tyson Ross this year
Mike Trout is the top projected player by the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight because he’s Mike Trout (207 wRC+, .388 ISO vs RHP this year)…and also because RHBs have a .396 wOBA against Tyson Ross with a 39.1 GB% this year. Aaron Judge (149 wRC+, .278 ISO vs LHP) is running neck and neck with him though. The good news is that RHBs have a .370 wOBA with a 35.8 GB% and 38.6 Hard% against Matt Boyd, including all 12 of his HRs surrendered this year, while Judge has a 42.9 Hard% over the last week. The bad news is Judge has just a 68 wRC+ over that span due to striking out in more than one-third of plate appearances. Anthony Rizzo (vs Homer Bailey) and Jay Bruce (vs Doug Fister) are third and fourth on both sites in great matchups. The Cubs (Kris Bryant) and Orioles (Manny Machado & Jonathan Schoop) both have two players appear in the top 10. They are the only offenses projected above six runs tonight by Vegas. Projected value appears tough to come by on DraftKings with Lucas Duda (2.11 Pt/$/K) they only player projected above both eight DraftKings points and two points per thousand dollars of salary. FanDuel is a bit more generous with Jose Ramirez (3.62 Pt/$/K) and Adam Jones (3.61 Pt/$/K) both potentially offering a lot of bang for the fantasy buck.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Jay Bruce, Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Lucas Duda, Adam Jones, Jose Ramirez Tonight's confirmed Arizona lineup has a .378 wOBA and .237 ISO vs LHP
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a team 80 wRC+, which may seem to make some sense as it tends to happen to some of these teams who are propped up by home environments that are very friendly to offenses (Texas and Colorado are other examples of teams that suffer away from home). The 74 wRC+ against LHP makes much less sense. Considering this takes into account the entire season, most of which they’ve played without J.D. Martinez (259 wRC+, .518 ISO vs LHP this year) and some of which without A.J. Pollock (88 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP), players are better off using a tool like PlateIQ, which will give you the combined numbers of the actual confirmed lineup, rather than full team rates. Sure enough, PlateIQ shows us a combined .378 wOBA and .237 ISO against LHP from tonight’s Arizona lineup with just a 19.8 K%, rather than their team wide, season long 25.6 K% against southpaws this year. Of course, wOBA and ISO don’t strip out the effects of playing half their games in Arizona and now even transitioning to one of the most negative run environments in the league at Citi Field in New York, but this is certainly a much more potent lineup than a 74 wRC+. This is hardly a secret with the Diamondbacks implied for just over five runs against Tommy Milone (RHBs .391 wOBA since last season), but it’s just another way to use a great tool to get a more accurate read when numbers complied over five months of the year no longer seem to match up. While Milone likes to use his curveball against RHBs 25% of the time since last season according to Brooks Baseball. Players can also use PlateIQ to see that Martinez, Chris Iannetta and Brandon Drury have had success against the pitch this year, perhaps why Iannetta has moved up to the second spot tonight. It would be tough to conclude without mentioning that this Paul Goldschmidt guy might be pretty good too (142 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP this year).
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Tommy Milone, Chris Iannetta, Brandon Drury Chris Archer has a 27.0% K-BB% and 2.96 xFIP at home this season
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight looking to continue building on a solid three-start stretch where he has allowed no more than three earned runs while striking out at least seven batters in each outing. Additionally, Archer has managed to record a minimum of eight strikeouts in seven of his last nine performances, consistently flashing that high strikeout upside we have all come to know and love. Thus, the current season advanced statistics for Archer are essentially in line or slightly better than his career numbers, evidenced by a 3.39 SIERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, and a 7.2% walk rate. One concerning area is the small dip in his groundball rate (41.3% GB%) from a career 45.8% rate that is correlated with a career-high 38.9% hard hit rate, though a 26-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but do remain worrisome nonetheless. The matchup with a Blue Jays offense that is sub par against right-handed pitching overall, ranking 23rd in wRC+ (90), 25th in wOBA (.310), and 17th in ISO (.170), does a ton to alleviate concerns with Archer in this spot. It’s also not hard to see why Archer owns one of, if not, the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Tuesday’s slate, even once we factor in that Toronto owns a middling 20.7% strikeout against righties this season. If weighting splits, another advantage with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 33.1% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to just a 26.5% strikeout rate on the road. So, clearly, Archer has the upside to finish the night as the highest scoring pitcher, which obviously makes him an excellent option in large-field tournaments, but the relatively safe floor in this matchup elevates him to the top of the list for cash games on tonight’s slate as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Michael Conforto (wrist) scratched, Juan Lagares leads off.
Michael Conforto has been scratched with a wrist issue. Juan Lagares moves into the leadoff spot with Matt Reynolds replacing him Conforto in Right Field and taking Lagares’s original spot in the lineup (sixth).
As reported by: Steve Gelbs Other tagged players: Matt Reynolds, Juan Lagares The White Sox have a 113 wRC+, 19.5 K% and .205 ISO over the last two weeks
When teams trade away their veteran players and begin a rebuilding process, they’re supposed to go from bad to worse for a while. However, that’s not exactly what has happened to the White Sox after shedding their veteran bats. Over the last two weeks only six offenses have a higher wRC+ (113) and just five have a higher ISO (.205). Of the seven offenses with a wRC+ above .200, they are the only one with a strikeout rate below 20% (19.5%) over that span. Take a look at the top five in the order when they host Kyle Gibson tonight and Avisail Garcia, thought to be having a breakout year, has the lowest wRC+ (109) and ISO (.184) vs RHP this year. Jose Abreu (112 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP) has returned to prominence, while rookies Nick Delmonico (207 wRC+, .327 ISO vs RHP) and Yoan Moncada (131 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP) have stormed into the league. It may be a small sample size for both, but each has a hard hit rate above 40% against RHP. Even leadoff man Leury Garcia is showing some pop (115 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP). Batters from either side have a wOBA above .370 against Kyle Gibson this year. Vegas has taken notice, implying the White Sox for 4.98 runs tonight, but the rest of the daily fantasy world may still be behind.
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia, Nicky Delmonico, Leury Garcia, Kyle Gibson Just four above a 25 K%, but a strong group of pitchers on Tuesday night.
Just four pitchers on the slate have a strikeout rate above 25% with none reaching 30%, but while there may not be a lot of high end arms on the slate, don’t mistake that for a weak pitching board. There are plenty of capable arms on the board tonight. Chris Archer has the top strikeout rate tonight (29.7%) and that’s up to one-third of all batters over the last month with a 14 SwStr%. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see the top priced pitcher as the best one tonight against an underwhelming Toronto offense (90 wRC+ vs RHP, 16.0 K-BB% over the last week) at home tonight. Both Archer (88.8 mph aEV) and Carlos Carrasco (27.9 K%, 8.9% Barrels/BBE) have struggled with contact management at times, but with enough strikeouts to make it work. Carrasco’s issue is not as much in facing a potent offense (Red Sox 92 wRC+ vs RHP), but more in facing a low strikeout one (19.2 K% vs RHP, 4.0 K-BB% over the last week) in a positive run environment in Cleveland. This is likely what gives Archer the projection edge tonight. Charlie Morton (26 K%) has not struggled with hard contact. In fact, since returning from the DL in early July (eight starts), he has maintained a 17.0 K-BB% and 50% ground rate, while smothering contact (-8.5 Hard-Soft%) and that includes a 47.4 Hard% without a weakly hit ball in Texas two starts back. He faces a Washington lineup down a several key bats now. They have a 59 wRC+ and 26.4 K% over the last week. Jimmy Nelson (26.8 K%) pitches in San Francisco tonight. It’s a great spot from a contact management perspective (Giants 82 wRC+, 6.1 HR/FB, 4.5 Hard-Soft% at home), which should help make up for the decreased strikeout upside (Giants 18.8 K% at home, 19.3% vs RHP). Nelson had been on fire since May and did strike out seven with a -10.5 Hard-Soft% in his last start, but has allowed 15 runs (12 earned) over his last 10 innings with just a 36.1 GB%. Fly balls aren’t necessarily a bad thing in San Francisco if you have a decent outfield defense though. The Daily K Predictor doesn’t project any of these pitchers to fan the most batters tonight. That honor goes to Danny Duffy (8.11) with Archer (7.78) not far behind. Duffy has struck out exactly eight in three straight starts, doubling the number of times he’s reached that many this year. The problem is that he’s allowed 16 runs (12 earned) over 17 innings. The good news is that he’s hosting one of the worst road offenses in baseball in the Rockies (79 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB%, 8.0 Hard-Soft%). Jeff Samardzija has a 20.3 K% and even worse, a 7.3 SwStr% over the last month, but there is some hope he can increase that against the Brewers (25.5 K% vs RHP) in a park that should mute some of their tremendous power (17.5 HR/FB on the road, 19.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Patrick Corbin leads the slate with a 14.1 SwStr% over the last month (min. three starts).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, Jimmy Nelson, Danny Duffy, Jeff Samardzija, Patrick Corbin Fourteen of 28 teams above 4.8 implied runs tonight, with Cubs and Orioles both above six
The Orioles (6.18) and Cubs (6.12) are both projected just a bit above six runs by Vegas with a half run drop until we see the Yankees and Twins (both at 5.52 implied runs) and then 10 more teams between 4.8 and 5.21 runs, making up half the offenses on a 14 game slate. Cubs bats certainly have the most appealing matchup from the left-side, facing Homer Bailey, who has allowed LHBs a .397 wOBA and 36.6 Hard% since returning from surgery last year, in a small park. Not only do Anthony Rizzo, Alex Avila and Kyle Schwarber all have an ISO above, they all have a wRC+ above 170 over the last week. Include Ian Happ (124 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP) and Ben Zobrist (88 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP), each with a wRC+ above 130 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Among those closer to the middle of the pack (4.92 runs), St Louis bats could appear potent against Clayton Richard. While he’s generated ground balls against RHBs on 56% of those batted this year, they have a 19.7 Hard-Soft%, .371 wOBA and all 18 of his HRs surrendered this season. Paul DeJong (149 wRC+, .333 ISO) and Tommy Pham (158 wRC+, .293 ISO) have been elite hitters against southpaws this year. Both have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week. Jedd Gyorko (124 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Yadier Molina (123 wRC+, .277 ISO) have been strong contributors as well, both with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. If in the lineup, Jose Martinez has also hammered LHP in a small sample (193 wRC+, .366 ISO).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Kyle Schwarber, Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina, Jedd Gyorko, Jose Martinez Baltimore and Cleveland largest run line movers this afternoon, but in different directions
The Baltimore Orioles started the afternoon projected for six runs by Vegas and that total has been climbing over the last several hours, now up one-third of a run to 6.32, nearly a full run ahead of the next highest team (Minnesota 5.23) with no other offense implied for more than 4.81 runs (Seattle). On the other end of the spectrum, the Cleveland Indians have dropped from the third highest run line (4.98) earlier this afternoon to ninth (4.57) currently. Bettors seem to have a bit more confidence in Eduardo Rodriguez than linemakers originally did. Oakland, up from 4.5 to 4.68 runs, is the only other team to move more than one-tenth or a run in either direction over the course of the afternoon. Players can find run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Baltimore Orioles expected to dominate ownership on a small slate
With the highest projected run line by nearly a full run, Baltimore Orioles are expected to dominate ownership tonight, especially on FanDuel, where they’re currently projected to have three of the four bats projected for 20% ownership tonight. Trey Manicini could be the most popular bat on either site. While he has a lineup low 7 wRC+ (23.5 Hard%) over the last week, he has a team high 137 wRC+ and .265 ISO vs RHP this year. Alex Wood is projected to be the most popular arm, but not by an overwhelming amount on a small slate. Both Tyler Skaggs, in a good spot, and Mike Clevinger, the top strikeout rate on the board, are both projected above 30% ownership on DraftKings as well. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Mike Clevinger, Tyler Skaggs Some concern for the Game two of the Minnesota @ Chicago DH tonight
Kevin covers nearly every game in his evening forecast today, which is generally not great news, but the second game of the Minnesota @ Chicago (AL) double header is the only game that gets worse than a YELLOW grade. While conditions don’t look too bad for the projected first pitch, one issue is that we can’t be sure when the game will start because the first one has to end first. As if a late start double-headers doesn’t cause enough issues, at least DraftKings players don’t have to worry about it. There’s also a chance of a late start in Cleveland with a small risk of delays in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Atlanta. Be sure to read Kevin’s full report on the Weather page and catch updates on Premium Expert chat between 6 and 7pm eastern.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Expert Chat