DFS Alerts
Mike Clevinger has slate leading 27.1 K%, 13.2 SwStr% & has improved against RHBs this year
Mike Clevinger has the top strikeout rate on the slate (27.1%) along with the top swinging strike rate (13.2%). While the Red Sox strike out less often than average (19.2% vs RHP), it’s still often enough to keep the top strikeout arm on the board in play tonight. Last season, Clevinger struggled against same-handed batters (.412 wOBA with seven of his eight HRs allowed), but he’s made great strides against them this season (.281 wOBA with four HRs) with a recent Fangraphs article crediting his location, specifically on breaking balls more often down and away, for the improvement. He’s not entirely out of the woods though. He’s walked batters from either side of the plate more than 11% of the time this season, while LHBs have a .345 wOBA with a 26.6 Hard-Soft% and 31.2 GB% against him. He lasted just three innings, allowing five runs with four walks against in Boston on July 31st. Rafael Devers has been a beast so far (179 wRC+, .375 ISO vs RHP). He has a 271 wRC+ over the last week with four HRs with early ownership projections currently placing him behind Manny Machado, Jake Lamb and Kyle Seager on either site at Third Base tonight. Eduardo Nunez (117 wRC+) is the only RHB in the confirmed lineup with a wRC+ above 100 against RHP this year though with none above a .190 ISO. Mookie Betts (100 wRC+, .188 ISO, 35.5 Hard% vs RHP) has been just average. Clevinger gets another small bump with Mitch Moreland being replaced by Broch Holt (-17 wRC+ last seven days, 14.9 Hard% vs RHP this year) since the original lineup came out.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt
Mitch Moreland scratched Monday; Brock Holt replaces and will bat seventh
Moreland has officially been scratched from the Boston Red Sox lineup for tonight’s game against the Cleveland Indians due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brock Holt, who will take over the first-base duties and bat seventh. Since Holt is slotting directly into Moreland’s spot in the batting order, the remainder of the Red Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
Other tagged players: Brock Holt
Mike Trout is the top projected bat tonight, but Baltimore with two (Machado & Schoop) in top ten
Mike Trout is the top player on the board according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. While he’s facing Cole Hamels (RHBs .312 wOBA, 34.0 Hard%) in a difficult hitting environment at home, he shines in most any reasonable matchup. His 169 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP is actually his bad side this year. Though Baltimore is the only team on the slate currently projected for six runs and only one of two above five implied runs, they don’t have a single batter projected among the top five tonight, though Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop both appear among the top 10. Paul Goldschmidt is the second highest projected batter on either site. He has a 158 wRC+ and .288 ISO vs RHP this year, while RHBs have a .369 wOBA against Robert Gsellman, but with a 53.3 GB%. His largest issue has been just a 13.7 K% against same-handed batters. Players looking for more value in their lineup should consider Matt Kemp (3.76 Pt/$/K) for just $2.6K on FanDuel against LHP Andrew Albers, while Schoop (3.67 Pt/$/K) costs just $3.3K against Chris Smith, doubling as a top projected overall bat and value tonight. Andrew McCutchen is facing tonight’s top projected pitcher (Alex Wood), but appears as a top value on either site (2.33 Pt/$/K on DK, 3.72 Pt/$/K on FD). He has a 208 wRC+ and .441 ISO vs LHP this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Kemp Gerrit Cole has a 19.9 K-BB% over nine starts and has been a popup machine since the break
Gerrit Cole struck out nine of 25 Brewers last time out, but allowed three HRs. He has a 19.9 K-BB% over his last nine starts and has gone at least six innings i in eight straight, but it’s his contact management against LHBs since the break that has really caught the eye. For the season, LHBs have a .345 wOBA with 15 HRs, a 42.3 GB% and 18.8 Hard-Soft%. However, in seven starts since the break, they have just a .264 wOBA with two of his seven HRs surrendered. The key driver is a -9.8 Hard-Soft% backed by an 18.8 IFFB%. Brooks Baseball shows an increase in four seamers and changeups over this span with a decrease in sinkers and sliders against LHBs that could be responsible for these new outcomes. Tonight, he faces a Dodger lineup with a lot of left-handed power, though the LHB with the most (Cody Bellinger) is on the bench. That makes this a more interesting spot, though Corey Seager (130 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP this year) and Curtis Granderson (122 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP) are still bats to watch. Both have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week and while Pittsburgh greatly diminishes RH power, it plays more neutral against LHBs. While RHBs have been a bit better against Cole over this seven start span post break (.306 wOBA with five HRs), they have a 21.6 K-BB% with a -3.5 Hard-Soft% and 21.2 IFFB%.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Curtis Granderson Wade Miley has just a .250 BABIP in his last four starts, leading to some slightly deceiving results
Wade Miley has come back down to earth quickly over the last few months following a decent start to the 2017 campaign, allowing at least five earned runs in four of his last nine starts and pitching into the sixth inning on just three occasions, and though he has seen some good results lately, his peripheral stats certainly fail to follow suit. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with an Oakland Athletics squad that has the ability, even a preference, to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Boog Powell being the only left-handed batter to crack the Oakland lineup this evening. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 18.8%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.4% over that same time period. Miley’s 49.4% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Athletics hitters considering he is also allowing a 24.4% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 33.2% of the time. Furthermore, the Athletics remain likely to be one of the most overlooked offenses on Monday’s abbreviated slate and present some significant one off power options throughout their order. Considering the reduced ownership the Oakland bats are expected to demand, it certainly wouldn’t be a horrible idea to try to get creative with Oakland stacks, especially in large field tournaments given their overall strong power numbers against left-handed pitching. Based solely on statistics, Ryon Healy (168 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .286 ISO vs LHP), Khris Davis (.241 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Matt Chapman (.178 ISO vs LHP), and Marcus Semien (.220 ISO vs LHP since 2016) all stand out as the premier plays from this Athletics lineup, though Chapman’s spot in the batting order should preferably reserve him to tournament exposure only. Even though Davis has struggled by his standards against southpaws this year, he may be one of the better candidates for positive power regression down the final stretch of the season due to an absurd 55.4% hard hit rate versus left-handed pitching, and what better time to get the party started than a date with Wade Miley in the friendly confines of Camden Yards.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman Alex Wood has a 15 SwStr% over his last two starts, but hasn't exceeded 90 pitches in three starts
Gerrit Cole (5.88) and Alex Wood (5.76) sit atop the Daily K Predictor on a slate with only three pitchers above a 25% strikeout rate this year. Wood (26.1%) is second. He is the top overall projected pitcher tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections) in Pittsburgh, a great park for a left-handed pitcher suddenly struggling to generate ground balls. The good news is he hit 50% grounders for the first time in month last time out and has a 15 SwStr% over his last two starts. His velocity remains down since the break though and he hasn’t exceeded 90 pitches in three starts. Seven innings appears to be his limit no matter how well he’s pitching, as he has three straight starts with at least six innings and two runs or less. Mike Clevinger has the top strikeout rate on the board (27.1%), but faces an offense with just a 19.2 K% in a difficult run environment in Cleveland. Eduardo Rodriguez (26 K%) is his opponent and the only other pitcher on the board above a 25 K%. The issue is that Cleveland has just a 7.3 K-BB% vs LHP and 114 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers (second best via Baseball-Reference), while his 9.1% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board. He also has only recorded a seventh inning out just once this season. Cole has just a 21.9 K% (8.7 SwStr%) on the season, but a 19.9 K-BB% since the break. Pittsburgh plays more neutral towards left-handed power though and the Dodgers have a lot of that (20.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). Tyler Skaggs is a pitcher to watch tonight. Through 275 innings, he appears a perfectly league average pitcher (11.9 K-BB%, 45.1 GB%, 30.9 Hard%). The Texas Rangers have a slate high 168 wRC+ over the last week (15 BB%, 25.8 HR/FB), but have been elevated by a gracious home park and travel to a negative run environment tonight. They have a 82 wRC+ (26.3 K%) on the road and 86 wRC+ (25.1 K%) vs LHP.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Tyler Skaggs, Mike Clevinger, Eduardo Rodriguez LHBs have a .366 wOBA and 28.6 Hard-Soft% (32.6 GB%) against Mike Foltynewicz this year
Mike Foltynewicz has a 21.1 K% and 9.0 SwStr% that are both right around league average this year, but ever since striking out 11 batters three starts back, he’s allowed 14 ERs over his last six innings with a 39.3 Hard-Soft%, while striking out just six of 42 batters. True, one of those starts was in Colorado, but LHBs have trounced him all season long (.366 wOBA, 28.6 Hard-Soft%, 32.6 GB%). The Mariners have a Vegas projection of 4.84 runs, which is fourth, but their LHBs should be a high priority in the new launching pad in Atlanta. Yonder Alonso (146 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP this year) is a top value First Baseman at $4K on DK and $3.3K on FD. He has a 206 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard%, even if he does have just single HR. Robinson Cano (130 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (100 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP) each have a wRC+ below 40 over the last week, but Seager can at least claim a 42.9 Hard%, but five strikeouts in just 12 PAs. Ben Gamel (109 wRC+, .116 ISO vs RHP) has exhibited little power, but is certainly another low priced option. Against RHBs, Foltynewicz has a 15.2 K-BB% and 45.5 GB% with a 4.9 Hard-Soft%, but with a .328 wOBA and nine of his 19 HRs allowed. That’s not nearly strong enough to take Nelson Cruz (152 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP this season) out of play either, though it would be one hell of of a payup around $5K on either site. His 270 wRC+ (56.3 Hard%, three HRs) over the last week is fifth highest on tonight’s slate (10 PA min.).
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Ben Gamel, Nelson Cruz, Mike Foltynewicz The Orioles top the slate with six implied runs and a 16.4 HR/FB at home vs Chris Smith (10.6% Barrels/BBE)
The Baltimore Orioles top the slate with an implied run line of 6.04 tonight. Chris Smith is their target at home, where they have a team 16.4 HR/FB this year. Smith is allowing a slate high 10.6% Barrels/BBE this year with just a 37.4 GB%. Unfortunately for him, RHBs (.316 wOBA, 44.9 GB%, 33.9 Hard%) have caused more problems than LHBs (.283 wOBA, 33.3 GB%, 32.1 Hard%) since last season, including eight of the nine HRs he’s surrendered this year. The red hot Manny Machado (103 wRC, .214 ISO vs RHP this year, 219 wRC+, 53.9 Hard% over the last week) is one of tonight’s top projected batters, while Tim Beckham (118 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) may be the top SS on the slate. Chris Davis, Seth Smith, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones and Welington Castillo all have a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .185 against RHP this year with Mancini (137 wRC+, .265 ISO leading the offense in both categories. The Minnesota Twins (5.23) are the only other team projected to eclipse five runs tonight, in the second game of their double-header against rookie and former first round pick Carson Fulmer, making his first major league start, though the Cleveland Indians are right on the cusp (4.99) against a fairly decent left-handed pitcher (Eduardo Rodriguez)
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Tim Beckham, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis, Seth Smith, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Welington Castillo, Carson Fulmer Bartolo Colon has a 44.3% HH% and 82.9% LOB% in six starts with Minnesota
Bartolo Colon currently finds himself in the midst of a stretch since signing with the Minnesota Twins where he hasn’t been completely horrible. In fact, he’s managed to “limit” his opponents to four earned runs or less in all six outings, and somehow was able to squeeze in with seven-inning shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers two short starts ago. He’ll take the mound this afternoon for the seventh time as a member of the Twins rotation against a powerful Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 5th in wOBA (.335) and 6th in ISO (.192) against right-handed pitching, putting them in the perfect position to take advantage of a fastball pitcher like Colon that struggles striking hitters out (13.4% K%) from both sides of the plate. Although, on the year, Colon has been substantially worse against left-handed batters, evidenced by a 44.8% fly ball rate and 42.5% hard hit rate compared to a more respectable 50.8% groundball rate and 31.4% hard hit rate versus righties. Unfortunately, this Diamondbacks squad lacks the ability to go super left-handed, as David Peralta, Jake Lamb, and Gregor Blanco are the only lefties that cracked Arizona’s lineup for this away matchup. This means that Jake Lamb (143 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .285 ISO) and David Peralta (118 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .180 ISO) are the premier one-off options from this Diamondbacks lineup given their plate skills against right-handed pitching. With that said, Colon isn’t immune to right-handed batters by any means, but he certainly does have a better ability to control batted ball outcomes on a more consistent basis, which makes guys like Paul Goldschmidt (160 wRC+, .430 wOBA, .291 ISO vs RHP) and J.D. Martinez (120 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .281 ISO vs RHP) more effective as tournament options than core pieces to a cash game lineup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Bartolo Colon Few games with low rain chances in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
For the second day in a row, we’ll receive the luxury of not having to worry too much about the impacts of weather on Sunday afternoon’s slate of games. The game with the worst “risk” comes to us in Colorado for the game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies with a grade of YELLOW due to isolated pop-up storms that have the potential to cause a delay but definitely shouldn’t be considered likely. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page The Marlins check-in with the lowest implied total (3.7) on Sunday's main slate
Jacob deGrom will take the mound this afternoon at home against the Miami Marlins aiming to rebound from a rough start his last time out against the New York Yankees, allowing five earned runs in 7.1 innings pitched. However, despite the shaky outing, it certainly was nice to see deGrom have the leash to pitch into the eighth inning. For the most part, deGrom continues to look like his old self throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 followed by a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate two years ago, meaning that he has seemingly reverted back to the consistent strikeout pitcher that’s he had been for the early stages of his career this season. These statistics just further suggest that last year’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom’s 28.4% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate through 24 starts would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Additionally, he’ll receive the benefit of drawing a relatively neutral matchup against a middling Marlins squad that ranks 18th in wRC+ (96), 16th in wOBA (.322), and 18th in ISO (.169) versus right-handed pitching. The Marlins do only strike out at a 20.3%, meaning that this matchup is not necessarily a huge downgrade from a strikeout perspective for deGrom, even though the Marlins do own a below-average strikeout rate. Despite the matchup, deGrom has an elite enough pitching profile to combat Miami’s big-time right-handed bats (26.2% K-BB% vs RHB) that he should be able to neutralize some, if not, all of their power and on base ability against right-handed pitching and work his way through to a good outing. On top of that, deGrom arguably still possesses the highest upside among starting pitching options on Sunday’s slate, even at his high price point. This definitely does look to be one of those situations where the reward still outweighs the risk in cash games and tournaments, meaning deGrom remains one of the pitchers with the highest likelihood to post a tournament winning score across the industry this afternoon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Relatively quiet MLB weather forecast for Saturday night's slate of games
It’s an atypically quiet night on the weather front across Major League Baseball with only one game receiving any type of “risk” designation. This game comes to us in Baltimore for the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles with a grade of GREEN/YELLOW for the very small chance of a pop-up storm. Other than that Kevin Roth highlighted a few games with prime, hot and humid hitting conditions in his latest weather outlook. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Daniel Murphy scratched Saturday; Andrew Stevenson replaces and will bat leadoff
Murphy has officially been scratched from the Washington Nationals lineup for tonight’s game against the San Diego Padres due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in said lineup by Andrew Stevenson, who will take over the right field duties and bat leadoff, moving Howie Kendrick to second base to take over for Murphy defensively. This lineup change will bump Anthony Rendon up one spot the three-hole from his original fifth position and slide Howie Kendrick down to fifth from the leadoff spot. However, outside of that, the remainder of the Nationals previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman Other tagged players: Andrew Stevenson Yoan Moncada scratched Saturday; Yolmer Sanchez replaces and will bat ninth
Moncada has officially been scratched from the Chicago White Sox lineup for tonight’s game against the Texas Rangers due to the lingering effects of shin splints. He’ll be replaced in said lineup by Yolmer Sanchez, who will take over the second base duties and bat ninth. This lineup change will bump Leury Garcia and Adam Engel each up one spot in the order to seventh and eighth respectively. However, the remainder of the White Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Chicago White Sox Martin Perez owns a 5.19 xFIP and 4.0% K-BB% versus RHB
Outside of a two-start anomaly his last two times on the mound against the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets, allowing two earned runs or less in each outing, Martin Perez has mostly been unable to keep up his magic act that has continuously frustrated daily fantasy players for the last couple of years. If unaware of this madness, Perez typically has had the uncanny ability to work himself out of jams and limit the overall damage to somewhat respectable totals in most of his outings. However, he began showing cracks in this aforementioned armor lately, allowing seven or more earned runs in back-to-back starts against the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins prior to his most recent rebound performances. So much of what makes Perez “successful” is his solid pitching profile to left-handed batters, evidenced by a 22.1% strikeout rate, 56.5% groundball rate, and 24.3% hard hit rate, all of which are above-average numbers. These skills are something he will have a nearly impossible time relying on Saturday night as the Chicago White Sox have just one lefty in their lineup this evening. His previously mentioned skillset takes a drastic downturn against right-handed batters, posting just a 12.4% strikeout rate in just over 100 innings this season while surrendering hard contact 37.2% of the time, leading to a lofty .370 wOBA and 1.49 HR/9 allowed to righties. This all sets up perfectly well for this White Sox lineup, as a few of their right-handed bats possess discernible skills against southpaws, with Jose Abreu (182 wRC+, .444 wOBA, .257 ISO) clearly leading the way with a 42.1% hard hit rate. On top of Abreu, virtually any righty cracking the Chicago lineup is more than playable on this slate with Avisail Garcia (161 wRC+, .414 wOBA vs LHP) and Tim Anderson (112 wRC+, .342 wOBA vs LHP) being the other definitive players to target, while Tyler Saladino and Kevan Smith make for viable salary-savers, based on their lineup positions, to round out a White Sox stack in large-field tournaments despite their overall struggles with left-handed pitching thus far this season.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia, Tim Anderson, Tyler Saladino, Kevan Smith