DFS Alerts
LHBs have a 37.5 Hard% (40.3 GB%) against Sal Romano; Cubs second best in implied runs (5.35)
The Chicago Cubs have an implied run line of 5.35 that’s second highest on a six game slate and one of just four above 4.8 tonight. Sal Romano has just a 17.8 K% (7.8 SwStr%) with an ERA and SIERA above five through nine starts. The redeeming quality is an 85.8 mph aEV, keeping RHBs on the ground 57.2% of the time on batted balls. Yet, the wOBA (.396) is much higher to that side of the plate with four of his six HRs allowed, despite LHBs owning a .334 wOBA on a 37.5 Hard% and 40.3 GB%. While it would seem ideal to target him with Chicago batters from both sides of the plate, Kris Bryant (138 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP) may be dealing with a lingering hand issue that kept him out of yesterday’s lineup and could be cost prohibitive for those looking to afford one of the high end pitchers on this slate. The same could be said about Anthony Rizzo (130 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP), minus the injury issue. At least some exposure is warranted here for multiple lineup players, as he’s one of the top hitters on the slate. This is an entirely stackable lineup from top to bottom with Rene Rivera a potential punt necessity at a very low cost. Kyle Schwarber (102 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) has a 52.9 Hard% over the last week (best on the team), while Ian Happ (123 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP) leads the confirmed lineup with a 197 wRC+ over the last seven days. Ben Zobrist (87 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP) is another cost saver at the top of the lineup. Javier Baez (81 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Heyward (90 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP) are here too?
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Sal Romano, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Rene Rivera, Javier Baez, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ
German Marquez has second-highest K% on Thursday's early slate (22.1%)
That rate rises to 23.1% against righties and he’ll face six this afternoon. Overall, the Royals’ starting lineup has a 19.5% strikeout rate, which isn’t huge, but they have a measly .133 ISO paired with a .310 wOBA against RHP this season. Marquez struggles a bit with hard contact – 33.3% to LHB, 38.3% against RHB – however, no Royals’ starter has topped 34.8% Hard% against RHP this year and four batters sit between 22.2-28.4%. Marquez projects third on DraftKings’ early slate and he’ll provide a solid savings off Alex Cobb (2nd) and he’s $500 cheaper than Michael Fulmer (4th), making him an appealing SP2 this afternoon.
Tom Koehler has allowed a .469 wOBA against LHB this season
On top of that, he’s given up a 35.3% Hard%, 28.0% GB%, 47.6% FB%, 20.5% HR/FB%, 8.04 xFIP, and .316 ISO through 127 total lefties faced. Koehler’s strikeout rate drops from 21.2% against RHB to 12.6% against the other side of the plate, which is important considering the five lefties starting for the Rays have k-rates between 19.7%-27.4%. That sets up a great matchup for the Rays LHB this afternoon. Most notably, Logan Morrison (.355 wOBA, .272 ISO, 39.2% Hard%, 46.6% FB% vs RHP this year), Lucas Duda (.376 wOBA, .292 ISO, 44.3% Hard%, 45.4% Hard%), Corey Dickerson (.345 wOBA, .225 ISO, 36.3% Hard%, 39.9% FB%), and Kevin Kiermaier (.382 wOBA, .235 ISO, 33.6% Hard%, 32.3% FB%). They may fly a little under the radar as Duda is the only guy to break into the top ten in our projections model and they’re third in projected runs (4.96) on a five-game slate.
Other tagged players: Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier Thursday's MLB forecast looks clear; LAD-PIT game (YELLOW/GREEN) has small chance of in-game delay
We may see a few showers in Pittsburgh this afternoon, which poses a small risk of delay. However, we aren’t concerned about a PPD. The only other game worth noting is the BOS-CLE matchup, which may experience a stray shower or two but is considered GREEN. Overall, there will be some pitcher-friendly weather at Progressive Field with 11 mph winds blowing in and temperatures in the 60s. With Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer on the mound, the over/under has been set at a low 7.0 runs. Be sure to check out the weather page for complete details and stay tuned for our afternoon update in case anything changes over the course of the day. David is in for Kevin through Saturday, follow him at @DavidWolter1 on Twitter.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather New York Yankees expected to be the most popular team in daily fantasy lineups tonight
Jordan ZImmermann appears to be the popular pitcher to target tonight as Aaron Judge is currently expected to be the most popular bat on the slate, joined by several other Yankee bats at the top of the projected ownership page. No other team has any other player projecting upwards of 20% ownership right now. Mound ownership is a similar story with Luis Severino currently projected to be the most popular pitcher on either site, even coming in at a similar cost to Corey Kluber on DraftKings. Luke Weaver could be the popular lower priced arm in a great spot against the Padres. Among the highest strikeout arms, Rich Hill might be the contrarian play, currently trending at 5% or less on either site. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, Luke Weaver, Rich Hill Using PlateIQ to evaluate effects on team stats for active trade deadline sellers
The Detroit Tigers, New York Mets and Chicago White Sox are three teams that have traded away a lot of their veteran hitters. For first two teams, 2017 was supposed to be a contending year, while the White Sox were intent on rebuilding before the season even starts. Perhaps that’s why these teams have gone in different directions since the trade deadline. While we’re most often looking at season long numbers, what their lineups look like at this point in the season might tell a very different story. The Tigers have a 94 wRC+, 22 K% and 11.6 HR/FB against RHP, despite a 24.3 Hard-Soft%. A lot of that hard contact is what they lost when they traded away J.D. Martinez and Alex Avial. It may not matter tonight against Luis Severino, but PlateIQ tells us that the confirmed lineup has a .311 wOBA, 19.3 K% and .140 ISO vs RHP. Perhaps fewer strikeouts, but a less potent lineup than what you might expect. Yet, their 94 wRC+ against RHP might have suggested that anyway. The White Sox have an 87 wRC+, 22.5 K% and 13.4 HR/FB against RHP this year, but what’s actually happened after trading away their veteran bats is that Yoan Moncada (140 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP) and Nick Delmonico (193 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP) have been major improvements.Tonight’s confirmed lineup has a .329 wOBA, 23.2 K% and .156 ISO against RHP, which is generally a league average offense and potentially a problem for Ervin Santana, who has allowed 24 HRs over his last 20 starts. The Mets have a 100 wRC+, 19.7 K% and 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP, but have traded away a good portion of their LH power in Duda, Granderson and Bruce. Tonight’s confirmed lineup without Yoenis Cespedes has a .304 wOBA, 20 K% and .147 ISO vs RHP this year, confirming Zack Godley as a top pitching option tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Nicky Delmonico, Luis Severino, Zack Godley, Ervin Santana Not much to be concerned with in Kevin's evening forecast
A very quiet night for weather issues. Kevin’s late forecast gives Boston @ Cleveland a YELLOW/GREEN for a small chance of a delay, but that appears to be the worst of it and not nearly reason enough to fade the top arm on the slate tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and catch Kevin in Premium Expert chat for further updates between 6 and 7pm ET.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Premium Expert Chat Chris Flexen and Andrew Cashner have horrid peripherals, but strong Statcast contact rates
Most times it’s nice when high strikeout pitchers match up with weak contact generators, but sometimes players may not want to use a pitcher (bad peripherals) in their daily fantasy lineup and don’t want to attack him either (strong contact management). On the other end of the spectrum, there are pitchers who can be of benefit with a high strikeout rate, but are also worth hunting HRs against. There are cases of each on tonight’s slate. Chris Flexen has an atrocious -1.9 K-BB% and batters from either side have a wOBA above .380 against him. However, his 83.3 mph aEV is the lowest on the slight with LHBs having just a 27.3 Hard% through five starts (22 IP). Similarly, Andrew Cashner has a pathetic 2.6 K-BB%, but his 3.4% Barrels/BBE is second lowest on the board and he has a 50% ground ball rate. Perhaps players might need to consider refraining from assaulting him with every left-handed batter in the lineup, a successful tactic in previous years. Jhoulys Chacin doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but has the lowest percentage of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the board (27.8). However, players can still consider attacking him with LHBs (.344 wOBA, 34 Hard%), except that Matt Carpenter is out of the lineup tonight. Trevor Williams has just a 17.5 K% and 4.71 ERA that nearly matches his 4.60 SIERA, but his 28.7% 95+ mph EV is third lowest on the board. On the other side of the spectrum, Ian Kennedy’s 89.5 mph aEV and 10.7% Barrels/BBE are highest on the slate, but he pitches in a big park against an offense that doesn’t have a lot of success away from Coors. Jordan Zimmermann’s 89 mph aEV is second highest. He’s has allowed 26 HRs, but just four over his last seven starts despite allowing 14 runs over his last 8.2 innings. In those seven starts since the break, he has a 30.6 GB% with a hard hit rate above 40% in five of them. An example of a pitcher with the potential for strikeouts, who is also a high HR risk is Asher Wojciechowki, who has a 24.8 K%, but has allowed a HR every 17.8 batters faced this year. Andrew Heaney generated 12 swinging strikes in 82 pitches in his season debut. He also generated a bomb every 20.5 pitches. Mike Fiers has a 22.8 K% this season. He’s now allowed 30 HRs on the season, 12 over his last eight starts, and multiple bombs in four straight. James Shields has a 24.6 K% over the last month, but has allowed 19 HRs over 14 starts, in case there was any extra incentive needed to attack him. Ervin Santana costs more than $8.5K on either site, despite allowing 24 HRs over his last 20 starts, 14 of them to RHBs. Rich Hill’s 84.2 mph aEV is the second lowest on the board. However, it’s still a good thing for backers that he’s pitching in a park that punishes RH power tonight because six of his 13 HRs this year over his last four starts over which he has a 42.9 Hard% and just a 35.2 GB% with his walk rate hitting 10%. His 28.4 K% has been unfazed by the rest of these shenanigans though.
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Williams, Ian Kennedy, Jordan Zimmermann, Asher Wojciechowski, Andrew Heaney, Mike Fiers, James Shields Luis Severino has a 2.92 xFIP and 22.6% K-BB% versus RHB
Luis Severino continues to chug along in what is guaranteed to be a breakout season at this point for the once highly-touted youngster. Outside of a one-start hiccup where he surrendered eight earned runs to the Boston Red Sox in just 4.1 innings pitched, Severino had allowed no more than one earned run in any of his previous other six outings, so he will certainly be aiming to stay on track in a matchup with the Detroit Tigers this evening. This Tigers team is unarguably a below-average offense against right-handed pitching as well, ranking 19th in wRC+ (94), 21st in wOBA (.315), and 26th in ISO (.155) while striking out at an exploitable 22.0% rate, good for a middling rank of 14th in the entire league. Additionally, the outlook seems bleak for Detroit on Wednesday’s slate with absolutely no power threats from the left-side of the plate to take advantage of Severino’s lesser (but still pretty good) splits versus left-handed batters. Another reason to feel good about Severino tonight is just the elite all-around skillset he brings to the mound with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 50.8% groundball rate in addition to a below-average hard contact (28.6%). These type of statistics are normally a winning combination for a starting pitcher, no matter the matchup. Severino also brings his skills up a notch against right-handed batters, inducing ground balls at a 55.0% clip while limiting hard contact to just 26.2% of the time, which should play very well in counteracting the top hitters from this Tigers lineup. So, with that said, he clearly possesses a similar floor and ceiling combo to the other stud pitcher on the mound Wednesday evening, Corey Kluber, who may still be the preferred SP1 on DraftKings given his and Severino’s close proximity in salary. However, where the discussion becomes extremely interesting is on FanDuel where there is a significant gap in price points between Severino and Kluber, possibly giving the edge just slightly to Severino with the ability to pay up for a couple more upside bats in both cash game and tournament formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are top projected hitters tonight
The RotoGrinders Player Projections might be grading players on size tonight when Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge own the top two overall projections, at least on DraftKings. Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo sneak in between the pair on FanDuel. Stanton has a 157 wRC+ and .357 ISO vs RHP this year and faces Mark Leiter in a small park in Philadelphia. Judge (168 wRC+, .318 ISO) gets a power downgrade in Detroit and has struggled over the last month, but Jordan Zimmerman has a 30.6 GB% over his last seven games with a hard hit rate above 40% in five of them. Freddie Freeman (182 wRC+, .323 ISO vs RHP) faces Erasmo Ramirez, who has a 22.0 Hard-Soft% in four starts with the Mariners. Anthony Rizzo faces Asher Wojciechowski, who has allowed five HRs over his last 11.1 innings. No team has more than a single batter in the top nine on either site, but add another pair (Brett Gardner & Gary Sanchez) among the top 11 overall projected hitters. Jose Bautista appears as a top projected value on DraftKings (2.49 Pt/$/K) for just $3.1K against Austin Pruitt. He has just a 96 wRC+ and .186 ISO vs RHP this year and a -3 wRC+ over the last week. While Gardner (3.55 Pt/$/K) doubles as a top value on FanDuel, along with teammate Didi Gregorius (3.59 Pt/$/K), each below $3.5K, it’s Tommy Joseph projected as the top value (3.82 Pt/$/K) at just above the minimum ($2.1K) against Justin Nicolino (5.5 SwStr%).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Tommy Joseph, Jose Bautista Corey Kluber's 35.1 K% and 16.3 SwStr% has a large lead on the rest of the field
Just four pitchers with a strikeout rate above 25% tonight. Throw in the top ground ball generator in the league in a high strikeout spot and you probably have the top five pitchers tonight. There’s some competition for the top spot in the Daily K Predictor, where Rich Hill (6.95) actually edges out Corey Kluber (6.75) and Luis Severino (6.66). Neither Hill, nor Kluber are in high strikeout spots against the Pirates and Red Sox, while the latter left his last start early with an ankle injury, but has been pronounced fit and without limitations tonight. Kluber’s 35.1 K% and 16.3 SwStr% have a large lead on the slate (Severino and HIll 28.4 K%, Zack Godley 14.2 SwStr%) with the RotoGrinders Player Projections giving him a pretty healthy point lead on Severino tonight. Marcus Stroman is the fifth strong consideration here. His 62.6 GB% is almost four points above any other qualfied pitcher. He combines that with a league average strikeout rate and happens to be in one of the highest strikeout upside spots in Tampa Bay tonight (25.7 K% at home, 24.8 K% vs RHP). Luke Weaver may be the sleeper here. He’s struck out 13 of 48 batters in two starts, while allowing two HRs. HRs were an issue last year as well, when he had a 19.8 K-BB% in 36 innings. He seemed to squash that issue while maintaining peripherals at AAA this season and is in a great spot against the Padres (25 K% on the road and vs RHP, 28.9 K% over the last week). Honorable mention to R.A. Dickey, who struck out a season high nine in his last start. He has a 15.3 K-BB% and 10.7 SwStr% over his last 13 starts. His 49.2 GB% is his highest since his Mets days with a 28% 95+ mph EV that’s second best on the board.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Rich Hill, Luis Severino, Zack Godley, Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Luke Weaver Nick Delmonico has a league leading five HRs over the last week
Luis Valbuena (355 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, three HRs) and Kole Calhoun (278 wRC+, 60 Hard%, three HRs) have two of the three top wRC+ marks on the slate over the last week (10 PA min.). Either would appear a great value play against a pitcher who has allowed a .346 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% to LHBs since last year and has just a 2.6 K-BB% this year, but Andrew Cashner has allowed just 3.4% Barrels/BBE this season, second lowest on the board. The remaining top five wRC+ marks over the last week are all catchers: Christian Vazquez (313 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, one HR), Wilson Ramos (255 wRC+, 40 Hard%, no HRs), Kurt Suzuki (242 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, two HRs). Only Ramos (18 PAs) has more than 12 PAs among that group though and none has a wRC+ against RHP this year (all three are facing a RHP tonight). Ian Kinsler (193 wRC+, 75 Hard%, one HR) and Trevor Story (123 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%, two HRs) are the only two batters to exceed a 70% hard hit rate. Kinsler has a tough matchup against Luis Severino, while Story gets an extreme fly ball pitcher (Ian Kennedy) in a much less power friendly park than he’s used to. Nick Delmonico (220 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%, five HRs) has homered more than any other batter over the last seven days. He has torn up RHP since his arrival in the league (193 wRC+, .308 ISO). LHBs have a .286 wOBA and 28.9 Hard% against Ervin Santana since last season. However, he has allowed 24 HRs over his last 20 starts. The cost is rising on Delmonico, but he can still be had for less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Luis Valbuena, Christian Vazquez, Kurt Suzuki, Wilson Ramos, Ian Kinsler, Trevor Story Twins have the top implied run line on the slate (5.49) and some previous success against Shields.
No offense on tonight’s slate has an implied run line above five and a half, though 11 are above 4.8 runs and there are certainly plenty of hard contact baring pitchers on the slab tonight. In case you’re surprised to see a name like Joe Mauer (115 wRC+, .123 ISO vs RHP) near the top of your wish list tonight, the Twins are projected for a board high 5.49 runs against James Shields, who has allowed a wOBA above .360 to batters from either site since last year, though RHBs have actually hit him much harder (37.4% to 30.7%). That could make Brian Dozier (103 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) the top batter on the slate. Both he (236 wRC+) and Mauer (147 wRC+) have a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Today’s Trendspotting article (premium) has more on this matchup. If you’re looking to be a bit more contrarian in an attack on Shields, Byron Buxton has just a 70 wRC+ and .152 ISO vs RHP this year. However, in nine PAs against Shields, he has homered twice with a 92.3 mph aEV on five BBEs. He also has a 175 wRC+ and 37.5 Hard% over the last week. Dozier has had even more success against Shields, with a slate high four HRs and nine extra-base hits in 37 PAs, though with just an 86.6 mph aEV on five Statcast recorded BBEs since 2015.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, James Shields Hunter Pence scratched Tuesday; Gorkys Hernandez replaces and will bat eighth
Pence has officially been scratched from the San Francisco Giants lineup for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the said lineup by Gorkys Hernandez, who will take over the right field duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Kelby Tomlinson all the way up to the two-hole from his original position of eighth. However, the remainder of the Giants previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: John Shea Other tagged players: Gorkys Hernandez Gerardo Parra scratched Tuesday; Raimel Tapia replaces and will bat ninth
Parra has officially been scratched from the Colorado Rockies lineup for tonight’s game against the Kanas City due to the lingering effects of a thigh contusion. He’ll be replaced in the said lineup by Raimel Tapia, who will take over the left field duties and bat ninth. This lineup change will bump Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, and Pat Valaika each up one spot in the order to fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth respectively. However, the top half of the Rockies previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Thomas Harding via Twitter Other tagged players: Raimel Tapia