DFS Alerts
Kevin Gausman leads Wednesday afternoon starters with a 10.5% SwStr%
Draftkings is offering a five-game early slate today while FanDuel is breaking the games into two separate slates. Among these five games, Gausman has the highest SwStr%, although his 20.9% K% is 4.4% behind leader Trevor Bauer (25.3%). Fortunately, he’s much better against right bats (22.6%) and the Angels are projected to start six RHB this afternoon. According to PlateIQ, they have a team strikeout rate of 20.3% against RHP in 2017. Against RHB this season (337 TBF), Gausman has posted a 46.0% GB%, .163 ISO, .344 wOBA, and 33.6% Hard% – those aren’t tremendous numbers and he’s worse against LHB – 39.0% GB%, .196 ISO, .383 wOBA, 35.8% Hard%. Vegas provides the Angels a projected run total of 4.46, which is good for sixth among ten teams Wednesday afternoon. Even so, given the quality of pitchers available, our projections model places him in second for the early games. Not far behind him is Trevor Bauer, who’s also cheaper across the industry. As mentioned, Bauer tops the board with a 25.3% strikeout rate and he also offers a better SIERA than Gausman – 3.98 vs. 4.55. He takes on the Rockies today, whose lineup has a 19.2% k-rate, .154 ISO, and a .324 wOBA. As a result, they have a lower projected run total than LAA (4.08). Overall, it seems like Bauer is the better value than Gausman today, but that should drive his ownership up. Madison Bumgarner is nearly $4k more expensive than Bauer on DraftKings but our model only gives him a little bit of a edge – 23.67 DK points vs. 19.99. Pairing Gausman and Bauer together makes sense on that site. With FanDuel, Bauer is on a separate slate, and with Bumgarner just $1.1k more than Gausman, he seems like the strong choice. He has the better SIERA (3.83) and strikeout rate (23.1%) – and it goes up to 25.6% against RHB (he’s projected to face six today). On top of that, the Cubs have a low projected run total of 3.8. The catch is he’s not the favorite to win, Vegas provides a slight edge to Kyle Hendricks, who places fourth in our model. The Cubs hurler could be a sneaky option though; he has a 21.7% k-rate against LHB this year (he’s projected to face six today), and the Giants’ projected lineup has a .150 ISO, .304 wOBA, and 19.4% K% against LHP this season while Hendricks enters the game with a 4.26 SIERA and 49.8% GB%.
Other tagged players: Trevor Bauer, Madison Bumgarner, Kyle Hendricks
Philadelphia @ Atlanta has some risk in Kevin's evening update
There is some uncertainty surrounding the Philadelphia @ Atlanta game in Kevin’s late update. The game is currently YELLOW/ORANGE. A delay is possible with a much slimmer change of a PPD. The good news is that this seems to be a game that’s easily avoidable for those with low risk tolerance on a full slate. There are also no other games of concern. Players can read the full report on our Weather page and get late updates up until lock through premium chat: RotoGrinders.com/premium
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Players are expected to look for value bats along with Chris Sale or Corey Kluber tonight
Houston bats are expected to be most popular as an overall team, though it’s not overwhelming as players might consider pitching more important without much behind the two premium arms tonight. Players are more likely to pick and choose where they can find the best value, which may include a few RH Milwaukee bats or even a couple of cheap infield Mets bats against A.J. Griffin now. On the mound, Sale projects to be slightly more popular than Kluber, but both of those arms likely to account for nearly half the pitching in lineups tonight. J.A. Happ facing an ice cold Yankee lineup that has just a 90 wRC+ could be an interesting alternative for those wanting to build a lineup with top bats. He’s expected to be in fewer than 5% of lineups tonight. Projected ownership is updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Chris Sale, J.A. Happ Affordable Brewer RHBs could be a pathway towards more costly bats & premium pitching
Players looking to have it all tonight probably want to stack Astros with either Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. One potential pathway to get there may be affordable RH Brewers. Minnesota is a positive run environment that plays a bit better than neutral for RH power. Batters from that side of the plate have a .339 wOBA and 32.7 Hard% against Adalberto Mejia in his career. Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton all have an ISO above .200 against LHPs this year and all except Broxton also have a wRC+ above 125. Additionally, all except Braun have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. None are above $4K on DraftKings with Aguilar and Broxton below $3K on FanDuel. Going deeper into this lineup, Hernan Perez and Manny Pina have not shown much power, but both have a wRC+ above 100 against LHP this year at similarly low price points. Orlando Arcia has a 166 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% over the last week. With several of those bats around or below $2.5K on FanDuel, players should be able to plug in Brewer bats around their Astros and still have enough for a premium pitcher left over.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Hernan Perez, Manny Pina, Orlando Arcia, Adalberto Mejia RHBs have just a .300 wOBA and -5.7 Hard-Soft% against Matt Boyd since returning from minors
Matt Boyd has been known as a HR prone pitcher through most of his major league career. He’s allowed 43 of them in 233.2 major league innings. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .350 against him, but RHBs have 35 of those HRs. First thought might be to stack RH Pittsburgh bats tonight. Andrew McCutchen (207 wRC+, 442 ISO), David Freese, Josh Harrison and Jose Osuna all have a wRC+ above 120 against LHPs this year, but there are some issues here. First, Pittsburgh is a great park for a LH fly ball pitcher (Boyd 37.5 career GB%). It greatly suppresses LH power. Of those four, only Osuna (.211 ISO) additionally has an ISO above .180 against LHP this year. The other factor is that Boyd has been a different pitcher in four starts since returning from the minor leagues. He has a 14.1 K-BB% and -8.8 Hard-Soft% against all batters with similar numbers against RHBs (.300 wOBA, two HRs, 13.5 K-BB%, -5.7 Hard-Soft%). The Pirates don’t strike out a lot (19.4% vs LHP, 17.8% at home, 15.2% last seven days) and will take their walks (an occasional problem for Boyd), so today might not be the right day to buy on this young lefty, but contact suppression over the last month suggests he may not be a pitcher players want to automatically attack anymore either (although McCutchen’s numbers against LHP are off the chart). For more on which pitchers players should attack and which batters are likely to make the hardest contact against them, premium players can check out our daily Trendspotting article.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Josh Harrison, Jose Osuna Ryan Braun is a top overall projected bat and top projected value on DraftKings
Jose Altuve is the top projected offensive player by nearly four-tenths of a point on either site according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections on a night he’s facing Derek Holland (RHBs .479 wOBA with 15 HRs last 12 starts). Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Joey Votto round out a top five that is virtually a collection of most of this year’s MVP candidates. Judge has been below average since the All-Star break and though he’s one of few Yankees who have hit LHP well this season (173 wRC+, .333 ISO), J.A. Happ has been able to handle RHBs (.302 wOBA, 30.5 Hard% since last season). While RHBs have a .302 wOBA and 27.2 Hard% against Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Trout is in a great spot when ever he steps to the plate (213 wRC+, .398 ISO vs RHP this year) and is one of the hottest batters in the league (308 wRC+, three HRs last seven days). Harper and Votto are facing RHPs who have allowed a hard hit rate above 35% to LHBs since last season. Player paying up for pitching are going to be hunting for value rather than top overall point totals. Projections feel that may be Jesus Aguilar (4.01 Pt/$/K) and Scooter Gennett (3.88 Pt/$/K) on FanDuel and perhaps Neil Walker (2.81 Pt/$/K) and Ryan Braun (2.54 Pt/$/K) among those projected for at least seven DraftKings points. Braun is also a top eight overall projected bat on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper, Joey Votto, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Neil Walker, Jesus Aguilar, Scooter Gennett Andrew Cashner scratched, A.J. Griffin will start
Andrew Cashner has been scratched with a neck issue. A.J. Griffin will start in his place. While LHBs have hit both pitchers well and Cashner was due for some serious regression on a 7.5 HR/FB, the difference may be that Cashner had a 50.4 GB%, while both right and left-handed batters put the ball on the ground less than one-third of the time against Griffin for his career. Batters from either side have a 13+ HR/FB and 32 Hard% against him as well (also career), but while the Mets are second in the majors with a 129 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers, their performance suffers greatly against those who generate a predominance of fly balls (77 sOPS+ is last in the majors). Mets batters in the lineup tonight who are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP and 100 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers include Michael Conforto (160 wRC+, 117 sOPS+) and Jay Bruce (129 wRC+, 114 sOPS+) only.
As reported by: John Blake Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce Chris Sale and Corey Kluber are one-two in the majors in K-BB%
Tonight’s slate belongs to two pitchers. Chris Sale leads the league with a 31.4 K% and is third with a 15.6 SwStr%. Corey Kluber is second (30 K-BB%) and first (16.2 SwStr%). Sale has the park advantage and a potentially higher strikeout upside spot in Tampa Bay (25.6 K% vs RHP), but the Rays have some power (37.3 Hard% at home). Kluber may have the better overall matchup (Rockies 81 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs RHP). Their Statcast batted ball rates are almost identical (both have an 86.5 mph aEV and 5% Barrels/BBE). The Daily K Predictor gives Sale a bit of a lead (10.5 to 9.12) with no other pitcher projected above six strikeouts tonight. The RotoGrinders Player Projections have them separated by less than a quarter of the point and there is very little separation in cost on either site. Bonus points to any player who can fit them both into the same DraftKings lineup. Those looking for a cheaper secondary pitcher could consider Austin Pruitt, who has fared decently in starts in the Bronx and Houston, but does have a 13.2 K-BB% even if most of it has been out of the bullpen. He costs $5.2K on DraftKings. J.A. Happ struck out a season high 10 White Sox in seven innings last time out. He has a 15.1 K-BB% and may be in a better spot than many players realize for just over $7K, hosting the Yankees (90 wRC+ vs LHP, 21.5 K-BB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week). Dallas Keuchel is in a great spot as well. The White Sox have a 23.8 K-BB% over the last week, but he costs more than $10K on DraftKings and has struck out and walked five each in two starts since returning from the DL. He did have a 60 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% in his last start though. Carlos Quintana is in San Francisco (78 wRC+ at home, 83 wRC+ vs LHP). He’s allowed five HRs over his last three starts, but the Giants have just a 5.9 HR/FB at home. Quintana’s 8.7 SwStr% struggles to support his 26 K%. Zack Godley has the same K% with a 14.0 SwStr% and 56.1 GB%, but hosts the Dodgers (39 Hard% over the last week).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Austin Pruitt, J.A. Happ, Jose Quintana, Zack Godley, Dallas Keuchel Mike Trout has a 308 wRC+ with four HRs over the last week, 213 wRC+ & .398 ISO vs RHP this year
Tyler White is the hottest hitter in the majors over the last week (342 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs). Though he only has 12 PAs, three of his eight batted balls have left the yard. He’s got a matchup that’s almost unfair against Derek Holland tonight (RHBs .479 wOBA, 15 HRs last 12 starts). Tim Beckham (324 wRC+, 39.1 Hard%, three HRs) has enjoyed his new uniform. He’s in Los Angeles tonight. RHBs have a .293 wOBA against Parker Bridwell, but a 35.8 Hard%. Mike Trout (308 wRC+, 43.5 Hard%, four HRs) has a season 213 wRC+ and .398 ISO vs RHP. Jeremy Hellickson is an average matchup (RHBs .302 wOBA, 27.2 Hard% since last season). Joey Votto (298 wRC+, 52.6 Hard%, three HRs) hosts a pitcher who generates a lot of ground balls, but fewer against LHBs. Luis Perdomo has allowed lefties a .372 wOBA, 37.7 Hard% and 53.3 Hard%. Elvis Andrus (289 wRC+, 47.6 Hard%, one HR) has a 122 wRC+ and .188 ISO vs RHP this year. Chris Flexen has just two major league starts, the most recent of which ended after just a few innings due to a blister issue in Colorado. Just outside the top five wRC+ marks are Joey Gallo (265 wRC+, 61.5 Hard%, five HRs) and Willson Contreras (243 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%, five HRs), who are tied for the lead in HRs over the last week and are two of the four players above a 60% hard hit over the last week. White and Steven Souza (183 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, two HRs) are the others. All have the platoon advantage tonight, though Souza is facing Chris Sale.
Other tagged players: Tyler White, Tim Beckham, Joey Votto, Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo, Willson Contreras, Steven Souza RHBs have a .479 wOBA (15 HRs) against Derek Holland over his last 12 starts
The Houston Astros are the class of tonight’s slate, implied for a board high 5.95 runs against Derek Holland. Four more teams have run lines between 4.98 and 5.4 runs with another five between 4.71 and 4.85 on a slate that has Chris Sale and Corey Kluber, but not really too much else on the high end. Dallas Keuchel and Jose Quintana are priced above $10K on DraftKings in good spots, but below $9K on FanDuel. Since the start of June (12 starts), RHBs have a .479 wOBA against Derek Holland, which includes a 2.1 K-BB%, 15 HRs and a 20.2 Hard-Soft%. This may be as close to a forfeit as the White Sox can come while actually participating in the game. That the Astros are considering activating George Springer (198 wRC+, .330 ISO vs LHP this year) tonight doesn’t even seem fair. Alex Bregman (158 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Altuve (174 wRC+, .245 ISO vs LHP) should be considered top bats on the slate tonight. Tyler White (124 wRC+, .287 ISO vs LHP since last season) is your value play, while Marwin Gonzalez (116 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP this year) rounds out stacks nicely. In fact, the only active batter on the team with a wRC+ above 100 or ISO above .200 vs LHP this year has been Brian McCann (125 wRC+, .261 ISO). Building a Kluber/Sale lineup with a Houston stack may be possible by looking for cheaper bats elsewhere.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Tyler White, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann, Derek Holland With Max Scherzer expected to be highly owned, players are likely to hunt for more value bats
If you’re playing daily fantasy baseball tonight, expect to see Max Scherzer’s name in a lot of your opponents’ lineups. He’s expected to be in over half of DraftKings lineups and nearly 40% of FanDuel ones. Jake Arrieta and Carlos Martinez appear the top fallback options, no surprise there. Brent Suter (15.5 K-BB%, 84.8 mph aEV, 26.2% 95+ mph EV) remains a dark horse with projected ownership below 5%. With so many players likely on Scherzer, they may not be able to stack many Washington bats, the highest implied run line both due to cost and (on FanDuel) stacking limitations. Mike Trout is still expected to be fairly popular, but also potential value plays like Eduardo Escobar (120 wRC+, .206 ISO vs LHP this year), one of just two real Minnesota RH threats against Suter in tonight’s lineup without Miguel Sano. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Brent Suter, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Trout Improved forecast for Washington tonight in Kevin's evening update
Kevin’s evening forecast is improved for Washington tonight, which is great news for Max Scherzer backers. There’s still a low chance for a delay there or a late start in Pittsburgh (vs Detroit), but otherwise no weather concerns on the slate. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Joey Votto & Manny Machado among top projected batters tonight
Although differently ordered on either site, Joey Votto, Ryan Zimmerman and Manny Machado are the top three projected hitters tonight via the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Votto and Zimmerman have everything going for them tonight, but Machado may be a bit of a surprise. He has a 101 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP this year (basically average) and faces a significant park downgrade, facing a pitcher who has handled RHBs well (.280 wOBA, 28.4 Hard%, 53.3 GB% vs JC Ramirez this season). He does have a 209 wRC+ over the last week though. The top five is rounded out by Mike Trout, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon. Rendon is in a great spot against a LHP allowing a ton of hard contact to RHBs in five starts. Trout is matchup proof, but still in an average spot against Dylan Bundy. Bryant is facing a below average lefty in San Francisco, but it’s a tough park and Matt Moore has actually had more success against RHBs, although a .331 wOBA and 34.1 Hard%, hardly makes RH Cubs fade material. For those buying on Scherzer, Zimmerman doubles as a potential top value on FanDuel (3.94 Pt/$/K), but Jose Martinez (3.86 Pt/$/K) bats out of the cleanup spot for the Cards tonight for just $2.1K. Among those projected for at least seven DraftKings points, the top three projected values are all First Basemen tonight: Matt Carpenter (2.5 Pt/$/K), Miguel Cabrera (2.43) and Chris Davis (2.38).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Joey Votto, Kris Bryant, Mike Trout, Jose Martinez, Matt Carpenter, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis The Giants own the second-lowest implied run total (3.4) on Monday's slate
Jake Arrieta had the epitome of an up-and-down season through the first half of the year but seems to have settled into a nice groove following the All-Star break, allowing no more than two earned runs each time out and pitching at least six innings in four consecutive starts. The biggest factors in Arrieta’s decline earlier in the season had been a jump in his hard hit rate up to 28.3% and a decrease in his usually outstanding ground ball ability down to a 46.3%, essentially making him more susceptible to home runs and potential big innings. Although both of those statistics are roughly in line with league averages (or slightly better), Arrieta’s contact and groundball skills were really what set him apart and made him a former perennial Cy Young candidate. With that said, since the All-Star break, a four-start sample size, Arrieta has managed to get somewhat back on track, notching a 24.3% hard-hit rate and 48.6% groundball rate. Unfortunately, it’s not all good news, as he seems to have sacrificed some of his strikeouts (22.0% K%) to get back to his normal low-hard-contact, ground ball ways. Despite the small dip in strikeouts of late, Arrieta remains in play across the industry given the concerns with other elite pitchers available on Monday’s slate. The matchup with a weak-hitting San Francisco Giants offense does a lot to ease concerns of a possible blow-up start for Arrieta, as San Francisco ranks 29th in wRC+ (81), 30th in wOBA (.292), and 30th in ISO (.133) versus right-handed pitching this season. However, the Giants have shown the propensity to make a ton of contact and strike out at just a 19.2% clip to righties, good for a tie for fourth-best in the Majors, which could really limit the upside of Arrieta in the strikeout department. So, clearly, this matchup has a tremendous amount of safety from a run prevention standpoint, making Arrieta a perfect cash game target, especially if concerned with Max Scherzer’s potential injury concerns. With that said, Arrieta still probably remains a fade in large-field tournaments given his price tag and unlikelihood posting a tournament winning score against this Giants squad.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds
Max Scherzer is the obvious top arm tonight, Brent Suter could be the dark horse in Minnesota
Max Scherzer is the clear top pitching choice tonight. The Daily K Predictor has him for a slate leading 7.97, ahead of Carlos Martinez’s projection of 7.13 and the RotoGrinders Player Projections have him blowing away the competition, well ahead of Jake Arrieta in second place. Obviously, the third best K-BB 29.3% and second best SwStr (16.0%) can’t be argued with in a matchup without many strengths or weaknesses (Marlins 103 wRC+ on the road, 97 wRC+ vs RHP). For those looking for a reason to fade him, weather would be your best bet. While Kevin’s early forecast calls for rain to wrap up by game time, Washington doesn’t exactly have the greatest weather related track record this season and even though most internet/Twitter reports believe Scherzer is fine after leaving his last start with a neck issue, the Nationals have every reason in the world to be cautious with him tonight. Carlos Martinez (3.59 ERA, 3.89 SIERA, 26 K%, 51 GB%) would be the logical second choice in Kansas City (92 wRC+ at home, 89 wRC+ vs RHP), while Jake Arrieta (3.88 ERA, 4.08 SIERA, 23.2 K%, 46.3 GB%) might even be the safer play as a strong contact manager (6.7 Hard-Soft%) in San Francisco (77 wRC+ & 5.8 HR/FB at home, 81 wRC+ & 8.7 HR/FB vs RHP). The $3.4K price differential between the two on DraftKings may make the decision for most players though. Brent Suter may be an under the radar pitcher to look at tonight. While he allowed five runs with two HRs in 5.1 innings in his last start, he still struck out seven of 26 Cardinals with one walk and actually generated more weak contact (41.2%) than hard (35.3%). On the season, he has an above average 15.5 K-BB% and has been an excellent contact manager (84.8 mph aEV, 4.7% Barrels/BBE, 26.2% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board). The Twins have just an 85 wRC+ (10 HR/FB) against LHP this season and could be without Miguel Sano, who injured his hand recently.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez