DFS Alerts
Christian Yelich has had some success against Max Scherzer (two HRs, 98.5 mph aEV)
While it’s not nearly enough of a reason to fade Max Scherzer tonight (keep an eye on the weather report for that), those not playing him tonight could consider Christian Yelich’s history against him. DailyBaseballData shows a .466 wOBA in 22 PAs with five extra-base hits, including two HRs and just four strikeouts. Baseball Savant, which appears to be missing the most recent data, shows a 98.5 mph aEV on 14 BBEs recorded by Statcast. Of course, Yelich broke out last season, but has since regressed to a 113 wRC+ and .154 ISO vs RHP this year with more than half of his contact on the ground. Perhaps the reason for his success against Scherzer lies in the pitcher’s tendency to elevate (LHBs 32.8 GB% since last season). Marcell Ozuna is another Marlin who has had some success against Scherzer (two HRs, two doubles in 24 PAs, 91.4 mph aEV on 11 BBEs recorded by Statcast). Incredibly surprising given Scherzer’s dominance of RHBs (.193 wOBA since last season). For those who are wondering because Giancarlo Stanton has a 147 wRC+, .319 ISO vs RHP this season and 225 wRC+, 53.3 Hard% over the last week, in 12 career PAs against Scherzer, he has struck out five times with one HR.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton
Tim Beckham has been on fire since the trade to Baltimore (371 wRC+ last seven days)
While more than half of major league teams are sidelined on a seven game slate, somehow, the four hottest hitters in the league via wRC+ over the last week are all in play tonight. Tim Beckham (371 wRC+, 47.4 Hard%, three HRs) is the hottest bat in the majors since the trade to Baltimore. Unfortunately, he faces a substantial park downgrade on a trip to L.A. to face JC Ramirez (RHBs .297 wOBA, 28.7 Hard% since 2016). Willson Contreras (321 wRC+, 47.1 Hard%, five HRs) faces a similar park downgrade in San Francisco against a reverse platoon pitcher (Matt Moore .317 wOBA, 32.2 Hard% vs RHBs since last season). Mike Trout (290 wRC+, 40 Hard%, three HRs) is great and has a 209 wRC+, .385 ISO against RHP overall this season. RHBs are league average against Dylan Bundy (.311 wOBA, 29.4 Hard%, 34.9 GB% since 2016) in a normally more hitter friendly environment. It’s not like this park has hampered Mr. Trout though. Joey Votto (269 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) is similarly great (164 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP this season). Jhoulys Chacin has muffled RH contact this year, but continues to struggle against LHBs (.350 wOBA, 35 Hard%) and is one of few pitchers who faces an environmental downgrade tonight.
Other tagged players: Willson Contreras, Mike Trout, Joey Votto Many of tonight's top batter matchups find themselves in difficult power environments
While RH Washington batters appear to have the top matchup tonight (.425 wOBA against Chris O’Grady through five starts), the complication in many other spots may be difficult park factors rather than pitcher proficiency. LHBs have a .361 wOBA (33.8 Hard%) against Matt Moore since last season, which is great for Anthony Rizzo (137 wRC+, .247 ISO vs LHP since 2016) if San Francisco weren’t death to LH power. While park is not an issue in Cincinnati and LHBs have a .360 wOBA with 21 HRs against Tim Adelman since last year, among Padre regulars, Yangervis Solarte has the top ISO (.183) among LHBs against RHP since last year. RHBs are certainly an option (.339 wOBA, 37.9 Hard%). Wil Myers (.216 ISO), Jose Pirela (.220 ISO) and Austin Hedges (.253 ISO) all have an ISO above .200 against same handed pitching this year. In fact, Cincinnati is the only really power friendly environment in play tonight. RHBs have a .359 wOBA against Jordan Zimmermann since last season, but Pittsburgh has one of the lowest power factors for RHBs in the majors. While LHBs have done just as well (.345 wOBA, 35.9 Hard%), Josh Bell has been Pittsburgh’s only proficient bat from that side this year (113 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP). LHBs have a .339 wOBA and 35 Hard% against JC Ramirez since last season, but it’s another tough park and the Orioles are light in LH bats. The one big on they do have is yet another First Baseman (Chris Davis .267 ISO vs RHP this year). LHBs have a 45.3 Hard% against Ian Kennedy this season, but have only homered against him four times at home this year and of course, we’re looking at First Base again (Matt Carpenter 128 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this season). Carlos Martinez has similar issues against LHBs (.351 wOBA, 38.4 Hard% this year), but only Mike Moustakas (.296 ISO) and Brandon Moss (.202 ISO) have an ISO above .200 against RHP this year. At least they don’t play First Base.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, Jose Pirela, Austin Hedges, Josh Bell, Chris Davis, Matt Carpenter, Mike Moustakas, Brandon Moss RHBs have a .425 wOBA (42 Hard%) against Chris O'Grady through five starts
On a cozy seven game slate to start the week, the Washington Nationals are the premier offense tonight with an implied run line of 5.32. Six of the remaining 13 teams are between 4.6 and 5.0 runs. RHBs have a .425 wOBA and 42 Hard% against Chris O’Grady with all four of his HRs allowed in five starts, while he’s held LHBs to a .252 wOBA with a 15.0 K-BB% and average contact management. With Max Scherzer the clear top pitcher, the easy thing to do would be a Washington stack, omitting the two expensive LHBs, but there are potential remaining issues. One would be that FanDuel only allows four players per team, counting the pitcher as one. Howie Kendrick (154 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP this year), Ryan Zimmerman (142 wRC+, .309 ISO vs LHP) and Anthony Rendon (211 wRC+, .365 ISO vs LHP) would be the most potent path there, all at reasonable enough prices (especially on FanDuel) that they wouldn’t hamper rostering Scherzer either. Matt Wieters (106 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP) would be a strong pivot and potentially one of the top values for $2.4K on either site. The other issue here may be the weather. Kevin’s early report suggests a clearing by game time, but Washington doesn’t have the greatest track record in weather related matters this year.
Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick, Max Scherzer, Chris O'Grady, Matt Wieters D.J. LeMahieu scratched Sunday; Alexi Amarista replaces and will bat seventh
LeMahieu has officially been scratched from the Colorado Rockies lineup for today’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Alexi Amarista, who will take over the second base duties and bat seventh. This lineup change shuffles the Rockies lineup up quite a bit, but the most notable change is Gerrardo Parra getting the bump up to second in the batting order. Be sure to check out our Starting Lineups page for the other specific lineup changes not detailed in this writing.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders Other tagged players: Alexi Amarista
Yonder Alonso scratched Sunday; Mark Canha replaces and will bat ninth
Alonso has officially been scratched from the Oakland Athletics lineup for today’s game against the Los Angeles Angels following his trade to the Seattle Mariners shortly after the announcement of Sunday’s lineup. He’ll be replaced in said lineup by Mark Canha, who will take over the first base duties and bat ninth. This lineup change will bump Ryon Healy, Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman, and Bruce Maxwell all up one spot in the order to fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth respectively. However, the remainder of the Athletics previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Susan Slussler Other tagged players: Mark Canha Matt Davidson scratched Sunday; Tyler Saladino replaces and will bat fifth
Davidson has officially been scratched from the Chicago White Sox lineup for today’s game against the Boston Red Sox due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tyler Saladino, who will take over the designated hitter duties and bat fifth. Since Saladino is slotting directly into Davidson’s spot in the batting order, the remainder of the White Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Dan Hayes Other tagged players: Tyler Saladino Mike Pelfrey has posted an abysmal 1.1% K-BB% and 6.44 xFIP versus LHB
Mike Pelfrey continues to be just a mediocre-at-best starting pitcher at this point in his career and is essentially just an innings-eater for a Chicago White Sox rotation that is waiting on some younger arms to develop at the minor league level, proven by the fact he has no allowed five more earned runs in two consecutive starts. However, Pelfrey seems to just do well enough against right-handed batters on a consistent basis to tight rope his way through outings from start to start. The most common mistake in attacking Pelfrey with opposing hitters is to just blindly stack against him, as he has allowed just a .299 wOBA to righties this season that is backed up by an elite 58.2% groundball rate and 26.8% hard hit rate, despite the lowly 14.6% strikeout rate, the only real negative aspect of his pitching profile to righties. On the other hand, Pelfrey has been horrendous against left-handed batters with a similar 14.3% strikeout rate but induces ground balls at a below-average 39.1% clip and surrenders a 34.3% hard hit rate. These splits are massively in favor of the left-handed batters on this Boston Red Sox offense. This makes Andrew Benintendi (110 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (191 wRC+, .461 wOBA, .345 ISO vs RHP in 27 PA) the premier options from this Red Sox lineup to take advantage of Pelfrey’s .377 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 allowed to lefties, while Mitch Moreland (.198 ISO vs RHP) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.174 ISO vs RHP) each possess enough of a skillset at the plate against right-handed pitching to contribute solid games as part of a Red Sox lefties stack in tournaments or contrarian one-offs as well. Although Brock Holt has had a rough stretch versus righties to begin his injury-shortened season, he looks to be a necessary salary-saving option in any Boston stack given his platoon advantage and position at leadoff in the Red Sox batting order Sunday afternoon
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley, Brock Holt, Mike Pelfrey ORANGE/YELLOW in STL-CIN game headlines a lengthy Sunday MLB forecast
It’s a busy weather day across the Majors this Sunday afternoon with a plethora of games receiving risk designations from Kevin Roth for impending threats of storms and rain. The primary game of concern comes to us in Cincinnati for the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds with a grade of ORANGE/YELLOW for the probability of the game beginning in a rain delay. Unfortunately, the game is not entirely out of the woods once play resumes with more rain potentially moving into the area later in the day. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Chris Archer has a 27.7% K-BB% and 2.87 xFIP at home this season
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon in the midst of a middling six-start stretch for the Tampa Bay Rays’ ace, allowing three or more earned runs in four of his last six outing. On the brighter side, Archer has managed to record a minimum of eight strikeouts in five of those six aforementioned starts, consistently flashing that high strikeout upside we have all come to know and love. Thus, the current season advanced statistics for Archer are essentially in line or slightly better than his career numbers, evidenced by a 3.45 SIERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.4% walk rate. One concerning area is the small dip in his groundball rate (40.9% GB%) from a career 45.8% rate that is correlated with a career-high 38.6% hard hit rate, though a 23-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but remain worrisome nonetheless. However, given the matchup with a Brewers squad that is merely a subpar offense against right-handed pitching overall, ranking 19th in wRC+ (93), it’s not hard to see why Archer still possesses one of, if not, the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Sunday’s slate, especially once we factor in that Milwaukee owns the highest strikeout rate (25.6% K%) against righties this season. If weighting splits, another advantage with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 33.5% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to just a 25.6% strikeout rate on the road. So, clearly, even in what will likely be perceived as a high risk, high reward matchup by the general public, Archer still clearly possesses the upside to finish the day as the highest scoring starting pitcher on any given slate, especially when facing off with an offense that has the propensity to rack up punch outs in bunches.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jose Iglesias scratched Sunday; Dixon Machado replaces and will bat ninth
Iglesias has officially been scratched from the Detroit Tigers lineup for today’s game against the Baltimore Orioles due to a death in his family and will be placed on the bereavement list. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Dixon Machado, who will take over shortstop duties and bat ninth. Since Machado is slotting directly into Iglesias’ spot in the batting order, the remainder of the Tigers previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Evan Woodbery Other tagged players: Dixon Machado Start of Saturday's TEX-MIN game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW in his updated weather forecast due to a line of storms that were expected to arrive near the first pitch. The pregame delay is a major boost to the outlook of starting pitchers in this contest since an in-game delay always provides an added risk to starters being pulled early upon play resuming. Kevin still expects the game in Minnesota to play through but it’s important to keep in mind that starting pitchers are never entirely “safe” when pop-up storms can cause sporadic delays. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Jeff Wilson Risk lowered to YELLOW/ORANGE for CWS-BOS game
The overall postponement risk in the game between the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox looks to have seen some improvement from the earlier forecast, but Kevin Roth still believes that a rain delay in the realm of possibility. Pitching immediately carries some extra risk for the threat of a mid-game delay, though it hasn’t been confirmed, the game looks to be getting started on time. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Saturday's SEA-KC game has been postponed due to rain
Tonight’s game between the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals has officially been postponed due to inclement weather. The game has already been rescheduled for tomorrow as a part of a traditional doubleheader, with Game 2 beginning 30 minutes after the completion of the first game. Obviously, it is imperative to remove any and all Mariners and Royals players from your daily fantasy lineups, as they will not accrue fantasy points this evening.
As reported by: Greg Johns More than one game with PPD risk in Saturday night's MLB forecast
It’s a less than straightforward outlook in terms of weather for Saturday night’s MLB forecast, as there are several games with rain concerns. However, the primary games of note come to us in Boston in Kansas City for the matchups between the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals. Each contest has a significant postponement threat, as Kevin Roth has graded the CWS-BOS game as ORANGE and the SEA-KC game as ORANGE/RED respectively. Obviously, players in these games carry a lot of risks, but if playing the tournament ownership angle, the players in Boston have the better chance of completing their respective matchups, though Kevin believes there will be a higher likelihood of a postponement if the game does not begin in a rain delay. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page